Mexico: 2016 IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Mexico: 2016 IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION"

Transcription

1 Mexico: 2016 IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION Wilson Center, January 9, 2017 Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund

2 BACKGROUND

3 Growth in Economic Activity and Employment Have Remained Stable Real GDP Growth and Contributions (In percent, NSA) Services Commerce Mining Other Construction Manufacturing Employment (Y/Y growth, NSA) Unemployment (percent, SA; RHS) Formal employment Total employment (3QMA) Source: National Authorities.

4 Inflation Has Remained Close to the Target Inflation (In percent) Headline Core Target 1-year ahead expected inflation Exchange Rate Nominal (MXN/USD) Real effective exchange rate (Index 2010=100, RHS) Source: National Authorities.

5 Public Debt has Steadily Increased, but Fiscal Consolidation Has Begun Gross Public Sector Debt (In percent of GDP) Mexico LA-6 (excl. Mexico) 1/ EM comparator group 2/ Sovereign credit rating peer group 3/ Fiscal Balance (In percent of GDP) Source: National authorities; World Economic Outlook; Fitch Ratings; and IMF staff calculations. 1/ LA-6 excluding Mexico is comprised of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Uruguay. 2/ EM comparator group is comprised of India, Indonesia, Poland, Russia, Thailand, and Turkey. 3/ Fitch sovereign credit rating peer group includes Brazil, Chile, Colombia, India, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey.

6 Argentina India Hungary Poland Philippines Brazil Indonesia Mexico Peru South Africa Russia Bulgaria Thailand Turkey China Malaysia Chile Low Financial Vulnerabilities Commercial and Development Banking Sector 1/ (In percent) Return on assets Return on equity (RHS) Capital to risk-weighted assets (RHS) Total Nonfinancial Corporate Debt in 2015 (In percent of GDP) External Debt Domestic Capital Market Debt Bank Loans Total Corporate Debt in Source: National Authorities, Bloomberg. 1/ as of July 2016

7 Solid Appetite for Mexico s Financial Assets Non-Residents' Holdings of Local Sovereign Debt (In percent of GDP: as of December 2016) Short-term (CETES) Long-term Sovereign Risk Spreads (5 year CDS spread, in basis points as of Jan. 6, 2017) Brazil Colombia Poland Turkey 8 6 Foreign Holdings, percent of total debt (RHS) Mexico Source: National Authorities, Bloomberg.

8 OUTLOOK AND RISKS

9 Downside Risks are Mostly External Outlook (as of October, 2016): Growth expected to pick up on the back of stronger US growth in the near term and the effect of structural reforms in the medium term. Main downside risks: Rise in protectionism. Weaker-than-expected global growth, and particularly U.S. growth. Renewed volatility in global financial markets. A lower-than-expected path for oil prices or domestic oil production.

10 Downside risks have increased 3.5 Consensus Forecast for 2017 Real GDP growth (In percent) 20.0% Change between Nov. 8, 2016 and Jan. 6, 2017 (In percent and bps) % % 5.0% 0.0% % Oct-16 Source: Bloomberg. Dec % Exchange Rate Sovereign risk spreads (bps, RHS) Stock Market -20

11 POLICY PRIORITIES

12 Fiscal Policy: Rebuild Buffers and Strengthen Fiscal Framework Adhere to plan of reducing fiscal deficit (PSBR) to 2.5 percent of GDP by If revenue surprises materialize, reduce PSBR faster. Consider more ambitious target beyond 2018 to reduce public debt faster. PEMEX reform critical for market confidence. Credibility enhancements to the fiscal framework: Creation of a non-partisan fiscal council Tighter link between the desired level of public debt and PSBR targets Tighter triggers for exceptional circumstances clause Explicit rules to return to targets following a deviation

13 Monetary Policy: Anchored Expectations Reduce the Need for Tightening Policy Rate and Inflation Expectations (In percent) Policy rate 12-months ahead (from surveys) 5-8 years ahead (from surveys) Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Source: National Authorities.

14 Exchange Rate Policies Flexible exchange rate key shock absorber Interventions to address disorderly market conditions Shift from rules-based to (sparing) discretionary intervention (in line with 2015 AIV advice) FX interventions (USD, billions) Total Rules based Other Source: Banxico. Going forward, discretionary intervention remains a tool. Point: ensure functional markets, prevent build-up of one-sided bets, no specific exchange rate target.

15 Financial Sector Assessment Program Balance sheets of financial and non-financial institutions resilient to severe shocks Financial sector prudential oversight has been strengthened, but further enhancement are recommended: Strengthen the independence of supervisors. Financial soundness should be primary mandate. Consolidate supervisors. Strengthen the role of the Financial System Stability Council (CESF) in the assessment of financial stability risks. Develop formal contingency plans and simulation exercises. Strengthen deposit insurance (remove legacy debt). Align incentives of development banks more closely with developmental objectives (and eliminate credit targets).

16 Structural Issues Impressive set of reforms in 2013/14 energy, telecommunications, financial, labor, education Impact: telecom reform reduced prices, energy reform coincided with falling oil prices, but nevertheless proceeding. Expected to boost potential growth over the medium term. Continued implementation crucial Major structural bottlenecks remain: Security and rule of law need to be strengthened (with particularly severe problems in some parts of the country) Efficiency and quality of judicial institutions should be further strengthened Female labor supply weak compared to peers High rates of poverty and inequality

17 Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund Mexico: 2016 IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION Wilson Center, January 9, 2017

Mexico: Dealing with international financial uncertainty. Manuel Sánchez

Mexico: Dealing with international financial uncertainty. Manuel Sánchez Manuel Sánchez United States Mexico Chamber of Commerce, Chicago, IL, August 6, 2015 Contents 1 Moderate economic growth 2 Waiting for the liftoff 3 Taming inflation 2 Since 2014, Mexico s economic recovery

More information

World Economic Outlook Is the Tide Rising?

World Economic Outlook Is the Tide Rising? World Economic Outlook Is the Tide Rising? January 214 1 Global activity has strengthened. Further improvements expected. WEO Update in a nutshell Advanced economy growth has picked up Robust private demand

More information

World Economic Outlook. Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April

World Economic Outlook. Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April World Economic Outlook Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April 214 1 April 214 WEO: Key Messages Global growth strengthened in 213H2, will accelerate further in 214-1 Advanced economies are providing

More information

Monetary Policy under Fed Normalization and Other Challenges

Monetary Policy under Fed Normalization and Other Challenges Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* Santander Latin America Day London, June 28 th, 2018 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author

More information

Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability

Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2016 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments

More information

Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers

Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking

More information

Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class

Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to

More information

Monetary Policy Outlook for Mexico

Monetary Policy Outlook for Mexico Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar Washington, DC, 8 October 2016 Outline 1 2 3 4 5 Monetary Policy in Mexico Evolution of the Mexican Economy Inflation

More information

Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund

Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord

More information

Jörg Decressin Deputy Director

Jörg Decressin Deputy Director World Economic Outlook October 13 Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF 1 Outline Prospects for Advanced Economies Recent Developments and Implications for Emerging Economies Medium-term

More information

Mexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy

Mexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy Mexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* XP Securities Washington, DC, 13 October 2017 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document

More information

Outlook for the World Economy: Implications for the Caribbean. Saul Lizondo. Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund

Outlook for the World Economy: Implications for the Caribbean. Saul Lizondo. Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund Outlook for the World Economy: Implications for the Caribbean Saul Lizondo Associate Director Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund Trinidad id d and Tobago, September, 1 Presentation

More information

Latin America: the shadow of China

Latin America: the shadow of China Latin America: the shadow of China Juan Ruiz BBVA Research Chief Economist for South America Latin America Outlook Second Quarter Madrid, 13 May Latin America Outlook / May Key messages 1 2 3 4 5 The global

More information

Mexico s Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook

Mexico s Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook Mexico s Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* United States-Mexico Chamber of Commerce, California Regional Chapter Los Angeles, November 16 th,

More information

Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries William Shaw December 1999

Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries William Shaw December 1999 Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2000 William Shaw December 1999 Prospects for Growth and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries Recovery from financial crisis uneven International

More information

Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty 2016 Article IV Consultation Report on Indonesia John G. Nelmes IMF Senior Resident Representative for Indonesia Academic

More information

Global Economic Prospects

Global Economic Prospects Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally

More information

Reflections on the Global Economic Outlook

Reflections on the Global Economic Outlook Reflections on the Global Economic Outlook A presentation to the ACI-ICA World Congress October 2018 Mahmoud Mohieldin Senior Vice President World Bank Group @wbg2030 worldbank.org/sdgs Global Megatrends

More information

Peru s Fundamentals and Economic Outlook

Peru s Fundamentals and Economic Outlook Peru s Fundamentals and Economic Outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru October 2016 Content 1. Slow Global Recovery 5. Gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus 2. Reversal in Peru s external

More information

RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003

RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003 OCTOBER 23 RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK MEDIUM-TERM CHALLENGES 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In tandem with the global economic cycle, the Mexican

More information

Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook The Institute of Strategic and International Studies Kuala Lumpur, November 2012 Mangal Goswami Mangal Goswami Deputy Director IMF Singapore Regional Training Institute Action Needed

More information

Market liquidity and emerging market local currency sovereign bonds

Market liquidity and emerging market local currency sovereign bonds Market liquidity and emerging market local currency sovereign bonds Hyun Song Shin* Bank for International Settlements NBB-ECB conference on Managing financial crises: the state of play Brussels, 6 November

More information

The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to EMEs

The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to EMEs The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to EMEs Tatjana Dahlhaus Garima Vasishtha Bank of Canada 13th Research Meeting of NIPFP-DEA Research Program March 6, 215 Introduction

More information

Challenges and Opportunities in Recent Financial Market Developments

Challenges and Opportunities in Recent Financial Market Developments Challenges and Opportunities in Recent Financial Market Developments Mario Marcel Central Bank of Chile OMFIF 2018 Global Public Investor Conference, May 23, 2018 London International context Economic

More information

What is driving US Treasury yields higher?

What is driving US Treasury yields higher? What is driving Treasury yields higher? " our programme for reducing our [Fed's] balance sheet, which began in October, is proceeding smoothly. Barring a very significant and unexpected weakening in the

More information

Financial markets in an interconnected world

Financial markets in an interconnected world Financial markets in an interconnected world Hyun Song Shin* Bank for International Settlements CFS Colloquium Seminar, Goethe University 23 March 2015 * Views expressed are my own, not necessarily those

More information

Peru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru. September 2015

Peru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru. September 2015 Peru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru September 2015 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments and prospects

More information

Latin America Sovereign Ratings in a Weakening Global Economy Shelly Shetty, Head of Latin America Sovereigns

Latin America Sovereign Ratings in a Weakening Global Economy Shelly Shetty, Head of Latin America Sovereigns Latin America Sovereign Ratings in a Weakening Global Economy Shelly Shetty, Head of Latin America Sovereigns October 11, 211 Agenda Latin America Sovereigns: Ratings Trajectory In A Weakening Global Environment

More information

GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK

GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Max Darnell, Managing Partner, Chief Investment Officer All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. performance is no

More information

Capital Flows to Emerging Markets - The Perspective from the IIF

Capital Flows to Emerging Markets - The Perspective from the IIF Capital Flows to Emerging Markets - The Perspective from the IIF Felix Huefner Global Macroeconomic Analysis Department Institute of International Finance 1 st Meeting of the COMCEC Financial Cooperation

More information

Financial stability risks: old and new

Financial stability risks: old and new Financial stability risks: old and new Hyun Song Shin* Bank for International Settlements 4 December 2014 Brookings Institution Washington DC *Views expressed here are mine, not necessarily those of the

More information

UPDATE ON GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICY CHALLENGES

UPDATE ON GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICY CHALLENGES G R O U P O F T W E N T Y UPDATE ON GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICY CHALLENGES G-20 Leaders Summit September 5 6, 2013 St. Petersburg Prepared by Staff of the I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U

More information

Global Outlook. October 22, M. Marc Stocker DEC-Development Prospects Group

Global Outlook. October 22, M. Marc Stocker DEC-Development Prospects Group Global Outlook October 22, 214 M. Marc Stocker DEC-Development Prospects Group mstocker1@worldbank.org 1 About Growth Forecasts Public release of growth forecasts in the Global Economic Prospects in June

More information

Learning objectives. Investors should leave the presentation with an ability to discuss

Learning objectives. Investors should leave the presentation with an ability to discuss Learning objectives Investors should leave the presentation with an ability to discuss the fundamentals and valuations of emerging markets economies in 2018 the key risks of emerging market debt in 2018

More information

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27

More information

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing The risks of renewed capital flight from emerging markets Recent episodes of capital flight from emerging markets have highlighted the vulnerability of a number

More information

Mexican Q1 economic data: a reality shock, or there is still a brighter outlook?

Mexican Q1 economic data: a reality shock, or there is still a brighter outlook? Mexican Q1 economic data: a reality shock, or there is still a brighter outlook? Rafael Amiel, Director Latin America Economics IHS Global Insight Julio 2013 Mexico becomes fashionable again Mexico Makes

More information

Economic Outlook. Macro Research Itaú Unibanco

Economic Outlook. Macro Research Itaú Unibanco Economic Outlook Macro Research Itaú Unibanco June, 2013 Agenda Economia Global Heterogeneous growth: U.S. growing faster, Europe in recession. Deceleration in the emerging economies. The Fed signals a

More information

International Monetary Fund

International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF April 212 Towards Lasting Stability Global Economy Pulled Back from the Brink Policies Stepped

More information

Fiscal Policy and the Global Crisis

Fiscal Policy and the Global Crisis Fiscal Policy and the Global Crisis Presentation at Koҫ University, Istanbul Carlo Cottarelli Director IMF Fiscal Affairs Department June 9, 2009 1 Two fiscal questions What is the appropriate fiscal policy

More information

International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Outlook

International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Outlook International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Outlook Fabio Natalucci Deputy Director Monetary and Capital Markets Department 1 Financial Stability Risks Could Rise Sharply Since the April 218

More information

Global Financial Stability Report: Grappling with Crisis Legacies

Global Financial Stability Report: Grappling with Crisis Legacies Global Financial Stability Report: Grappling with Crisis Legacies Seminar for Senior Bank Supervisors from Emerging Economies Laura E. Kodres /International Monetary Fund October 17, 2011 Chapter 1 Overcoming

More information

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing 1 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Forecasts eased down again as trade remains sluggish We have cut our forecast for China again following weak growth in Q1. We now expect the

More information

Global Economic Prospects: Spillovers amid Weak Growth. Select Publications from DECPG

Global Economic Prospects: Spillovers amid Weak Growth. Select Publications from DECPG // Global Economic Prospects: Spillovers amid Weak Growth February M. Ayhan Kose Disclaimer! The views presented here are those of the authors and do NOT necessarily reflect the views and policies of the

More information

Cosa ci riserva il 2008?

Cosa ci riserva il 2008? Cosa ci riserva il 28? Scenari e previsioni per l anno in corso Keith Wade Capo Economista The US economy today A re-assessment of risk De-leveraging Financial sector Real economy Historical precedents

More information

Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook and Drivers

Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook and Drivers 2018/FDM1/004 Session 2.1 Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook and Drivers Purpose: Information Submitted by: International Monetary Fund Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting Port Moresby, Papua

More information

Monetary Policy Implementation During US Policy Normalization. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México

Monetary Policy Implementation During US Policy Normalization. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México JP Morgan Investor Seminar Washington, DC, 1 October 214 1 Outline 1 Introduction 2 Monetary Policy in 214-15 a. The External Environment b. Domestic

More information

Exchange rates and monetary policy frameworks in emerging market economies

Exchange rates and monetary policy frameworks in emerging market economies Exchange rates and monetary policy frameworks in emerging market economies Hyun Song Shin* Bank for International Settlements ECB conference on monetary policy: bridging science and practice Frankfurt,

More information

CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY

CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY Growth and Financial System Durmuş YILMAZ Governor February, 211 1 Presentation Outline I. Recent Developments in the Turkish Economy II. III. Monetary Policy Policy

More information

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES. Bank of Russia.

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES. Bank of Russia. RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES Bank of Russia July 218 < -1% -1-9% -9-8% -8-7% -7-6% -6-5% -5-4% -4-3% -3-2% -2-1% -1 % 1% 1 2% 2 3% 3 4% 4 5% 5 6% 6 7% 7 8% 8 9% 9 1% 1 11% 11

More information

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing 21 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Recession looms for some emerging economies Several major emerging economies struggling with domestically-induced problems are now in, or flirting

More information

The Fertile Soil of Corporate Bond Market

The Fertile Soil of Corporate Bond Market Oct 09 Sep 10 Aug 11 Jul 12 Jun 13 May 14 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13 Apr 14 Basis Points Basis Points PERSPECTIVES The Fertile Soil of Corporate Bond Market May 2014

More information

Monthly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO)

Monthly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) Monthly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) Special Edition ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) Singapore January 2018 This Monthly Update of the AREO was prepared by the Regional

More information

Forecasting Emerging Markets Equities the Role of Commodity Beta

Forecasting Emerging Markets Equities the Role of Commodity Beta Forecasting Emerging Markets Equities the Role of Commodity Beta Huiyu(Evelyn) Huang Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo& Co., LLC June 23, 215 For presentation at ISF 215. The opinions expressed here are solely

More information

LATIN AMERICA OUTLOOK 4Q2016 OUTLOOK LATIN AMERICA. 4th QUARTER 2016

LATIN AMERICA OUTLOOK 4Q2016 OUTLOOK LATIN AMERICA. 4th QUARTER 2016 LATIN AMERICA OUTLOOK 4Q OUTLOOK LATIN AMERICA 4th QUARTER LATIN AMERICA OUTLOOK 4Q Main messages The global economy is heading for a slow recovery. Global GDP growth will improve slightly from the second

More information

3rd Research Conference Towards Recovery and Sustainable Growth in the Altered Global Environment

3rd Research Conference Towards Recovery and Sustainable Growth in the Altered Global Environment 3rd Research Conference Towards Recovery and Sustainable Growth in the Altered Global Environment Erdem Başçı Governor 28-29 April 214, Skopje Overview: Inflation and Monetary Policy Retail loan growth

More information

SEPTEMBER Overview

SEPTEMBER Overview Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).

More information

Ndiame Diop, Lead Economist & Economic Advisor World Bank Indonesia BKPM, December 16, 2013

Ndiame Diop, Lead Economist & Economic Advisor World Bank Indonesia BKPM, December 16, 2013 Ndiame Diop, Lead Economist & Economic Advisor World Bank Indonesia BKPM, December 16, 2013 Overview of recent economic developments Framing the policy choices for the current account and growth in 2014

More information

REVIEW UNDER THE FLEXIBLE CREDIT LINE PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT

REVIEW UNDER THE FLEXIBLE CREDIT LINE PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT May 17 MEXICO IMF Country Report No. 17/19 REVIEW UNDER THE FLEXIBLE CREDIT LINE PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT In the context of the Review Under the Flexible Credit Line, the following documents have been

More information

Monetary policy spillovers: the case of 2014 shock in Russia. Bank of Russia Research and forecasting Department

Monetary policy spillovers: the case of 2014 shock in Russia. Bank of Russia Research and forecasting Department Monetary policy spillovers: the case of 2014 shock in Russia Bank of Russia Research and forecasting Department Zurich, May 10, 2017 Monetary spillovers channels Exchange rate channel Domestic demand channel

More information

Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook. PFTAC Steering Committee Meeting March 27, 2018 Suva, Fiji

Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook. PFTAC Steering Committee Meeting March 27, 2018 Suva, Fiji Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook PFTAC Steering Committee Meeting March 27, 2018 Suva, Fiji 1 Growth in the region remains strong... Growth Projections: World and Selected Asia (Percent change from

More information

GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH. July 2017

GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH. July 2017 GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH July 2017 Positive global outlook, with projections revised across areas The global outlook remains positive. Our BBVA-GAIN model estimates global GDP growth at 1% QoQ in,

More information

Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents

Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors

More information

International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF

International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF IMF Presentation April 3, The recovery is solidifying but it will take some time before it significantly

More information

Growth has peaked amidst escalating risks

Growth has peaked amidst escalating risks OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Growth has peaked amidst escalating risks 1 November 18 Ángel Gurría OECD Secretary-General Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE

More information

An Uneven Recovery. Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean. A Presentation by Western Hemisphere Department

An Uneven Recovery. Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean. A Presentation by Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund November 1, 2018 An Uneven Recovery Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean A Presentation by Western Hemisphere Department I. Key Messages II. Global Crosscurrents III.

More information

Peru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru. March 2015

Peru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru. March 2015 Peru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2015 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments and prospects 3.

More information

A Policy-Driven, Multispeed Recovery

A Policy-Driven, Multispeed Recovery Tuesday, January 6, 1 A Policy-Driven, Multispeed Recovery The global recovery is off to a stronger start than anticipated earlier but is proceeding at different speeds in the various regions (Table 1

More information

Emerging Fixed Income A New Dawn. Simon Lue-Fong March 2007 I Lima

Emerging Fixed Income A New Dawn. Simon Lue-Fong March 2007 I Lima Emerging Fixed Income A New Dawn Simon Lue-Fong March 2007 I Lima Table of contents 1. The Changing Landscape Emerging USD Bonds have had a spectacular ride But where next? EMERGING USD BOND SPREADS SINCE

More information

Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019

Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 October 2018 Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 Natalia Orlova Head of Alfa Bank Macro Insights +7 495 795 36 77 norlova@alfabank.ru Egypt Saudi Arabia Brazil S. Africa UAE Iraq China Japan US Mexico UK Russia

More information

Spillovers from Dollar Appreciation

Spillovers from Dollar Appreciation June 6-7, 216 International Monetary Fund Spillovers from Dollar Appreciation Florence Jaumotte (with J. Chow, S.G. Park, and S. Zhang) Motivation Context: appreciation of US Dollar changing growth differentials,

More information

Global Risk Outlook May 2016

Global Risk Outlook May 2016 Global Risk Outlook May 2016 Scott Livermore Managing Director and COO slivermore@oxfordeconomics.com About Oxford Economics Oxford Economics is a world leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis.

More information

Consequences of ageing for international finance

Consequences of ageing for international finance Consequences of ageing for international finance Hyun Song Shin* Bank for International Settlements G20 Symposium: For the Better Future: Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Challenges Tokyo, 17 January

More information

The Outlook for the World Economy

The Outlook for the World Economy AIECE General Meeting Brussels, 14/15 November 218 The Outlook for the World Economy Downward risks are rising Klaus-Jürgen Gern Kiel Institute for the World Economy Forecasting Center Global growth has

More information

Short-term momentum: Will it be sustained?

Short-term momentum: Will it be sustained? OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Projections published:20 Sept Short-term momentum: Will it be sustained? David TURNER Project LINK Meeting, UNCTAD in Geneva Oct 3-5, 2017 www.oecd.org/economy/economicoutlook.htm

More information

eregionaloutlooksincharts

eregionaloutlooksincharts eregionaloutlooksincharts (clickonregion) EastAsiaandPaci c EuropeandCentralAsia LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean MiddleEastandNorthAfrica SouthAsia Sub-SaharanAfrica The Economic Outlook for East Asia and

More information

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK January 2018 Research Department, International Monetary Fund

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK January 2018 Research Department, International Monetary Fund WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK January 2018 Research Department, International Monetary Fund Global activity has gained further momentum Global growth picked up further in 2017H2; outlook is for higher annual

More information

Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February

Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February 2017 1 Global and Asia Outlook 2 Global activity strengthening, with rising dispersion and uncertainty

More information

Macro Research Economic outlook

Macro Research Economic outlook Macro Research Economic outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco April 2017 Roadmap Global Economy The global outlook remains favorable Global growth positive momentum continues, with a synchronized

More information

Tale of Two Adjustments. The Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean. Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago June 14, 2017

Tale of Two Adjustments. The Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean. Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago June 14, 2017 Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere April 17 Tale of Two Adjustments The Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago June 1, 17 Outlook and Risks Tale of Two

More information

Sovereign Credit Outlook. Richard Francis Director, Latin America Sovereigns Corficolombiana Conference December 5, 2018

Sovereign Credit Outlook. Richard Francis Director, Latin America Sovereigns Corficolombiana Conference December 5, 2018 Sovereign Credit Outlook Richard Francis Director, Latin America Sovereigns Corficolombiana Conference December 5, 218 Agenda Global Perspective Regional Overview Sovereign Ratings and Recent Actions Colombia

More information

Overview of Presentation

Overview of Presentation Overview of Presentation Fiscal Outlook and Challenges How to Address Fiscal Challenges? 2 Fiscal Outlook and Challenges 3 While the fiscal drag is waning in AE, EMEs would need to start rebuilding buffers

More information

Emerging Market Private Sector Access to Capital Markets

Emerging Market Private Sector Access to Capital Markets Emerging Market Private Sector Access to Capital Markets The Role of the Domestic and Foreign Investor Base GEMLOC Advisory Services Roundtable May 29-30, 2008 Eliot Kalter President, EM Strategies Senior

More information

2010 Outlook. Emerging markets debt

2010 Outlook. Emerging markets debt Insights 21 Outlook Emerging markets debt January 21 Please visit www.jpmorgan.com/institutional for access to all of our Insights publications. In 21, we expect three key themes to influence emerging

More information

Challenges to the International Monetary System: Rebalancing Currencies, Institutions, and Rates

Challenges to the International Monetary System: Rebalancing Currencies, Institutions, and Rates Challenges to the International Monetary System: Rebalancing Currencies, Institutions, and Rates Takatoshi Kato Deputy Managing Director International Monetary Fund September 3, 27 1 9 Growth has been

More information

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Divergence in emergers monetary policy This year economic activity across the emergers has been subdued but inflation has generally remained moderate, allowing

More information

О КЛЮЧЕВОЙ СТАВКЕ RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES TO MONETARY POLICY. December Bank of Russia Presentation for Investors

О КЛЮЧЕВОЙ СТАВКЕ RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES TO MONETARY POLICY. December Bank of Russia Presentation for Investors О КЛЮЧЕВОЙ СТАВКЕ RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES TO MONETARY POLICY Bank of Russia Presentation for Investors December 16 USD per barrel RUB / USD 2 Oil Eхporters Production-cut Agreements Support

More information

RBC EMERGING MARKETS BOND FUND

RBC EMERGING MARKETS BOND FUND FIXED-INCOME FUND June 30, 2018 Portfolio Manager RBC Global Asset Management Inc. ( RBC GAM ) The Board of Directors of RBC Global Asset Management Inc. approved this interim management report of fund

More information

CBIA and the Metro Hartford Alliance Economic Summit & Outlook 2013 Recent Developments in the US Economy

CBIA and the Metro Hartford Alliance Economic Summit & Outlook 2013 Recent Developments in the US Economy CBIA and the Metro Hartford Alliance Economic Summit & Outlook 213 Recent Developments in the US Economy Christine Cumming, First Vice President January 4, 213 Disclaimer The views expressed are the presenter

More information

SA sovereign rating downgrade

SA sovereign rating downgrade The world is constantly turning. We know how important it is to keep up. That s why we continually expand our insurance and investment offerings, that s how we keep your best interests at heart. SA sovereign

More information

Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators September 19, 2013

Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators September 19, 2013 Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators September 19, 13 For further information, please contact: SSelenge@imf.org Jan-8 May-8 Sep-8 Jan-9 May-9 Sep-9 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 May-11 Sep-11 May-1 Sep-1 May-13

More information

An Informational Annex prepared by the IMF staff. A Debt Sustainability Analysis prepared by the staff of the IMF.

An Informational Annex prepared by the IMF staff. A Debt Sustainability Analysis prepared by the staff of the IMF. November 2016 MEXICO 2016 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION IMF Country Report No. 16/359 Under Article IV of the IMF s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year.

More information

The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009

The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009 The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 29 Anoop Singh Asia and Pacific Department IMF 1 Five key questions

More information

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017 Andreas Bauer Sr Resident Representative @imf_delhi World Economic Outlook The big picture Global activity picked up further in 2017H1 the outlook is now for higher

More information

Latin America Equities

Latin America Equities Latin America Equities March 2013 Stephen Burrows, Senior Investment Manager Emerging Markets - Pictet Asset Management Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12

More information

THOUGHTS FOR 2018 DECEMBER 2017

THOUGHTS FOR 2018 DECEMBER 2017 FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY. NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. PLEASE REFER TO ALL RISK DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS DOCUMENT. THOUGHTS FOR 218 DECEMBER 217 > After years of sustained

More information

Latin America Outlook. 2nd QUARTER 2017

Latin America Outlook. 2nd QUARTER 2017 Latin America Outlook 2nd QUARTER Latin America Outlook 2Q17 Main messages 1. Global growth keeps increasing, and uncertainty about US policies starts to fade. Nevertheless, global risks remain. 2. The

More information

India s macroeconomic trends: some issues. New Delhi, 9 th February, 2015

India s macroeconomic trends: some issues. New Delhi, 9 th February, 2015 India s macroeconomic trends: some issues New Delhi, 9 th February, 2015 Make in India or Make for India? Is a policy of aggressive export led growth on the lines of China viable? Diminished global demand

More information

Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators December 18, 2013

Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators December 18, 2013 Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators December 18, 213 For further information, please contact: SSelenge@imf.org 2 2 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 212 213 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct. Nov. First 11 months Total US$-value

More information

HIGHLIGHTS from CHAPTER 1: GLOBAL OUTLOOK DARKENING SKIES

HIGHLIGHTS from CHAPTER 1: GLOBAL OUTLOOK DARKENING SKIES Key Points HIGHLIGHTS from CHAPTER 1: GLOBAL OUTLOOK DARKENING SKIES Global growth has moderated, and it is expected to slow from 3 percent in 18 to.9 percent in. International trade and manufacturing

More information