Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Transcription

1 Chart Collection for Morning Briefing March 22, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Figure 1. INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS 4 3 Bull/Bear Ratio Ratio Feb Mar Mar / Bulls Bears Bulls Bears Feb Mar Mar / Correction Camp Correction Feb 28.4 Mar 7 2. Mar / Source: Investors Intelligence. 2 1 Page 3 / March 22, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

3 Figure 2. S&P INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1. OR LESS* (ratio scale) 3/ * Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.. Source: Standard & Poor s and Investors Intelligence Figure 3. S&P INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3. OR MORE* (ratio scale) 3/ * Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.. Source: Standard & Poor s and Investors Intelligence. Page 4 / March 22, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

4 Figure 4. S&P BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 8-16* -6.8% (17) -16.% (7) -19.4% (17) -9.8% (28) -9.9% (6) -7.7% (62) -.8% (34) -.8% (19) -6.9% (37) -12.4% (96) -13.3% () 3/ day moving average. * Ratio scale. Corrections are declines of % or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of % or more (in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses. 22 Figure. S&P & PANIC ATTACKS 16 Endgame Panic Fed Tightening Tantrum 22 Brent Bottoms at $27.88 Brexit Japan Goes NIRP WTI Bottoms FBI flags HRC Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 16 Page / March 22, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

5 Figure 6. S&P & PANIC ATTACKS 1 Swiss Franc Unpegged Renewed Grexit Scare Brent Drops Below $ Oil Falls, Dollar Rises Greece Sets 7/ Vote Chinese Stocks Sink Again Yuan Devalued ETF Flash Crash Third Ave Blows Up Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Figure 7. S&P & PANIC ATTACKS 14 Emerging Markets Mini Crisis Crimea Invasion Yellen Rate-Hike Scare Momentum Stocks Meltdown ISIS Invasion of Iraq Portuguese Bank Panic Malaysian Jet Crisis Global Growth and Ebola Scares Brent Drops Below $7 Sanctions Imposed on Russia Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Page 6 / March 22, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

6 Figure 8. S&P & PANIC ATTACKS 13 Fed comments on QE coming to an end Worries about slowdown in China/ Commodities plunge Fed speculation & weak retail sales Bernanke comments about ending monetary easing policy Looming budget deadlines & debt ceilings Fed Taper Fears 1 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 13 Figure 9. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES 6 3/ 1 8 Local Currency US Dollars Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. Page 7 / March 22, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

7 Figure. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI CURRENCY INDEX* (US$) 1 3/ * Includes Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. 3 Figure 11. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STEG, STRG, & LTEG (percent) 3 2 LTEG* (14.8) STEG* (16.6) STRG* (9.4) 2 1 3/ * STEG: 12-month (2-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. STRG: 12-month (2-week) forward consensus expected revenue growth. LTEG: -year consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 8 / March 22, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

8 4. 3. Figure 12. BOND MUTUAL FUNDS (cumulative flows since 199, trillion dollars) Jan Cumulative Flows Net Assets (3.) Net Inflows (3.1) Capital Gains (.4) Source: Investment Company Institute.. 42 Figure 13. ETF BOND INDEX FUNDS (cumulative flows since 3, billion dollars) Jan Cumulative Flows Net Assets (438.9) Net Inflows (442.7) Capital Gains (-3.8) Source: Investment Company Institute. -2 Page 9 / March 22, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

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