3rd Research Conference Towards Recovery and Sustainable Growth in the Altered Global Environment
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1 3rd Research Conference Towards Recovery and Sustainable Growth in the Altered Global Environment Erdem Başçı Governor April 214, Skopje
2 Overview: Inflation and Monetary Policy Retail loan growth continues to slow down in response to the tight monetary policy stance, recent macroprudential measures, and weak capital flows. The impact of monetary tightening on inflation will be observed with some lag. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to peak in May, partly reflecting the base effects. Exports will support growth while private final domestic demand will lose momentum in the forthcoming period. The current account deficit will improve substantially in
3 Outline I. Inflation II. III. IV. Monetary Policy Growth External Balance 3
4 INFLATION 4
5 Both nominal and real exchange rates have depreciated significantly since May 213. TL and Other Emerging Market Currencies vs USD ( =1) Real Effective Exchange Rates (23=) %-8% Interval of EMs Turkey Average of EMs with Current Account Deficit Source: Bloomberg. Last Observation: 7 April 214. Emerging economies include Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Poland, Romania, South Africa, South Korea and Thailand. Source: CBRT. Last Observation: March 214 5
6 There is no significant inflationary pressure from commodity prices. S&P GS Indices (1.1.2=) Headline Energy Industrial Metals January 214 Inflation Report Source: Bloomberg. Last Observation: : April
7 Exchange rate pass-through remains to be the main driver of inflation. Import-Export Prices (2=) Import Prices (in USD) (2=) Import Prices (in TL) Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Last Observation: February
8 Exchange rate pass-through is also visible in core indicators. CPI, H and I Index (Annual Percentage Change) CPI H I 2 Source: TURKSTAT. Last Observation: March
9 Deterioration in inflation expectations is limited in longer terms and 24 Months CPI Expectations* and Realizations (Percent) 12 Month 24 Month Target Realizations , Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. *CBRT Expectation Survey. Last Observation: March 214 9
10 Inflation is expected to peak in May, partly reflecting base effects. Inflation Report Forecast (Percent) 12 Forecast Range* Uncertainty Band Year-End Inflation Targets Output Gap Realizations 12 8 Control Horizon * Shaded region indicates the 7 percent confidence interval for the forecast Last Observation: March 214.
11 MONETARY POLICY 11
12 The Three Policy Dimensions Stance I. Monetary Policy Tight II. Fiscal Policy Tight III. Macroprudential Policy Tight 12
13 Central Bank Policy Instruments Stance I. Rates Tight II. Liquidity Tight III. Remuneration Tight 13
14 Recent developments had an additional impact on Turkey s risk premia. CDS Prices (Countries with Current Account Deficit) 3 25 FED s Exit Signal 17th December Developments in Ukraine Turkey Emerging Markets* 5 Selected Countries' Avarage** 5 Source: Bloomberg, CBRT. *Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Czech R., Hungary, Indonesia, Mexico, Polond, Romania and S. Africa. ** Brazil, Indonesia and S. Africa. Last Observation: April
15 The Central Bank implemented a strong and front-loaded monetary tightening at the interim meeting of January 28, Monetary Policy Interest Rates (Percent) Interest Rate Corridor CBRT Average Funding Cost (5 day MA) 1 Week Repo Rate Interbank Overnight Repo Rates (5 day MA) Source: CBRT. Last Observation: 9 April
16 Funding composition was shifted to one week maturity. Composition of CBRT Funding (2 Week Moving Average, Billion TL) Marginal Funding One Week Repo Net Open Market Operations O/N Funding 1 Month Repo Source: CBRT Last observation: April
17 Yield curve has flattened after the January tightening. Policy Rate and Funding Rate (Percent) 14 5 Year-CBRT Interest differential 3-Month Market Rate year Market Rate CBRT Average Funding Rate Source: CBRT, Bloomberg. Last observation: April
18 Yield curve is flatter in Turkey due to tight monetary policy Brazil South Africa /4/214 22/5/213 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 7Y 8Y 9Y Y Indonesia M 6M 9M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 7Y 8Y 9Y Y Turkey /4/214 22/5/ /4/214 22/5/ /4/214 22/5/ Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y Y 4.5 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 7Y 8Y 9Y Y Source:Bloomberg. 18
19 Depreciation trend of TL reversed after the monetary tightening Switzerland Iceland Euro Israil Poland Korea Romania N.Zealand China Czech Rep. Japan Hungary Taiwan Colombia Mexico Thailand Malaysia Australia Russia Chile India Brazil S.Africa Indonesia Turkey -2 Turkey Australia S. Africa Indonesia New Zeland India Korea Colombia Malaysia Brazil Mexico Romania Iceland Poland Switzerland Tailand Czech R. Hungary Euro Japan Taiwan Chile Israel Russia China Source: Bloomberg. Source: Bloomberg. 19
20 Monetary tightening had a visible impact on the currency MPC Meeting Announcement USD/TL (6-Hour Change) S&P Statement Signal of Remuneration MPC Meeting Decision Political Developments in Turkey Developments in Ukraine FOMC Meeting Local Elections /1/14 21/1/14 23/1/14 24/1/14 28/1/14 29/1/14 31/1/14 3/2/14 5/2/14 6/2/14 /2/14 11/2/14 13/2/14 14/2/14 18/2/14 19/2/14 21/2/14 24/2/14 26/2/14 27/2/14 3/3/14 4/3/14 6/3/14 7/3/14 /3/14 12/3/14 13/3/14 17/3/14 18/3/14 2/3/14 23/3/14 25/3/14 26/3/14 28/3/14 1/4/14 2/4/14 4/4/14 7/4/14 9/4/14 /4/14 Source: Bloomberg, CBRT. Last Observation: 11 April 214 2
21 FX reserves have been used against the excess volatility. 14 ROM FX FX for FX RR CBRT Other FX Reserve 12 ROM Gold Gold for Precious Metal CBRT Other Gold Reserve (Billion USD) FX Sales (-) Export Credit (+) August 213 1,95 1,19 September 213 1,86 1,15 October 213,84 1,7 November 213 1,44 1,7 December 213 4,67 1,2 January 214* 5,75,57 February 214 1,,3 March 214 1,5,48 2 ROM FX 34,9 FX Required Reserves 31,9 Total 66,8 Source: CBRT. *Includes the direct currency intervention of January
22 Monetary tightening delivered expected results Front-loaded Tightening D 25 Interest Rates* 2 15 B C If no measures were taken 5 A Source: Stephen Williamson Blog, CBRT. Expected Inflation Rate A: Inflation Target, B: Pre-shock Case, C: Inflation Shock D: In Case of Delayed and Weak Policy Response. *It represents long-term interest rates for Fisher curve, short-term interest rates for dynamic curves. Maturity premium and risk premium are assumed to be zero. 22
23 GROWTH 23
24 The pace of economic growth remains 4 percent per annum. GDP* (Seasonally Adjusted) Source: TURKSAT, CBRT. *Natural Logarithm 24
25 Final domestic demand was the main driver of growth in 213. Contribution to Annual GDP Growth (Percentage Points) Change in Inventories Net Exports Final Domestic Demand GDP Source: TURKSTAT. Last Observation: 213Q4 25
26 Leading indicators imply the continuation of moderate growth in 214 Q1. Industrial Production (IP) and PMI Indices (Seasonally Adjusted) IP PMI (rhs) Source: Markit, TURKSTAT. Last Observation : March 214 for PMI, February 214 for Industrial Production 26
27 Resilience of production can be largely attributed to export growth, as demonstrated by recent white goods data. 15 White Goods (Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands) Export 12 Import * * Production 55 Domestic Sales * * Source: TURKBESD, CBRT.. Last Observation: 213Q4. *Figures for the first quarter of 214 are January and February values. 27
28 Exports have been rising while imports have been slowing down due to weak domestic demand. Exports and Imports Volume Indices* (Excluding Gold, Seasonally Adjusted, 2=) Exports (excluding gold) Imports (excluding gold) Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. *Figures for the first quarter of 214 are January and February values. 28
29 Employment growth and labor participation have recovered recently. Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted, Percent) Employment and Participation Rate (Seasonally Adjusted, Million People) 2 18 Unemployment Rate (%) Non-farm Unemployment Rate (%) 52 5 Participation Rate (%) Employment (millions, right axis) Source: TURKSTAT, Household Labor Force Survey, CBRT. Last Observation: December 213. Source: TURKSTAT, Household Labor Force Survey, CBRT. Last Observation: December
30 Exports are seen to support growth and rebalancing, 6 PMI Export Orders (Seasonally Adjusted) 4 Expectation of New Export Orders * (Seasonally Adjusted) Source: Markit. Last Observation: March 214. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Last Observation: March 214. *Business Tendency Survey: Expectation of new export orders over the next three months (increase-decrease) 3
31 while domestic demand indicators have moderated recently. Consumer and Real Sector Confidence Indices Investment and Employment Prospects (Seasonally Adjusted) Real Sector (Seas. adj.) Consumer (TURKSTAT-CBRT, rhs) Investment Tendency Employment tendency Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Last Observation: March 214. Source: CBRT. Last Observation: March 214. Business Tendency Survey 31
32 EXTERNAL BALANCE 32
33 Loan growth rates are approaching the reference value of 15%. Consumer* and Commercial Loans** (YoY Growth, Percent) 6 6 Consumer Loans Commercial Loans (FX Adjusted) Reference Value Source: CBRT. * Including credit cards. **Total banking sector (including participation banks, excluding nonperforming loans) Last Observation: 4 April
34 Commercial loan growth is close to the long-term average. Commercial Loan* Growth Rates (13-Week Moving Average**, Exchange Rate Adjusted, Annualized, Percent) 45 Commercial Loans (214) Commercial Loans (27-213) Source: CBRT. *Total banking sector (including participation banks, excluding nonperforming loans) **The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of weekly growh rate. Last Observation: 4 April
35 Slowdown is more pronounced in consumer loans. Consumer Loan Growth Rates (13-Week Moving Average**, Annualized, Percent) 45 Consumer Loans (214) Consumer Loans (27-213) Source: CBRT. *Total banking sector (including participation banks, excluding nonperforming loans) **The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of weekly growh rate. Last Observation: 4 April
36 Lending rates have adjusted gradually, Lending Rates and Benchmark Interest Rate (Percent) Commercial (4 Week Moving Average) Housing Cash Benchmark Interest Rate CBRT Rate* Source: CBRT. *Central Bank borrowing rate before.2.211, average funding rate thereafter. Last Observation: 28 March
37 loan-deposit spread, as well. Commercial Loan Rates and Loan-Deposit Spread (Percent, 4-Week Moving Average) Commercial Loan Rates Spread (right axis) Source: CBRT. Last Observation: 28 March 214. Commercial loan rates exclude corporate overdraft account rates and corporate credit card rates. 37
38 Exports continue to grow faster than imports. Exports and Imports (Nominal y-o-y % change, 6-month MA) 6 Export (Excl. Gold) Import (Excl. Gold) Source: TURKSTAT. Last Observation: February
39 Export growth tracks the European recovery quite closely. Exports (Excluding gold, nominal, y-o-y % change, 6-month MA) Total Exports Exports to EU Source: TURKSTAT. Last Observation: February
40 Recovery in the EU economy is reflected in market shares of Turkey. Exports Market Share (Excluding gold, 6-month cumulative, percent) 6 5 EU-27 4 Other Europe North America Asia 3 MEA 2 Source: TURKSTAT. Last Observation: February
41 Leading indicators suggest that the recovery in the euro area will continue. 6 Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) Source: Markit. Last Observation: March
42 The uptrend in the export/import coverage ratio is expected to continue. Export/Import Coverage Ratio* (12-Month Rolling **, Percent) 66 Forecast Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio (Excl. Gold) 54 Source: TURKSAT, CBRT. * March and April data are forecast values. ** 12-month cumulative exports /12-month cumulative imports 42
43 A significant improvement is expected in the current account deficit in Current Account Deficit (12-Month Rolling, Billion USD) Forecast* CAD CAD (Excl. gold) CAD (Excl. gold and energy) - Source: CBRT. Last Observation: February214. *Forecasts are based on the 214 GDP growth projection of Medium Term Plan (MTP). 43
44 The current account deficit is mainly financed by long term loans and bond issues. Portfolio Other Short Term Net Loans 8 Long Term Net Loans and Bond Issues Direct İnvestment CAD 6 Current Account Deficit Financing Sources (12-Month Cumulative, Billion USD) Source:CBRT. Last Observation: February
45 Long-term loan flows are stable while portfolio flows are volatile. Current Account Deficit Financing Sources (Monthly, Billion USD) 15 Long Term Net Loans and Bond Issues Short Term Net Loans Direct İnvestment Portfolio Other CAD Source: CBRT Last Observation: February
46 Short term external debt of the official sector is negligible. External Debt Stock Maturing in One Year* (Billion USD) Deposits and Loans From Branches Abroad Other Sector - Loans 31.7 Trade Credits Non-Resident Deposits 6 Banks - Loans General Government 2 2,5 Outstanding as of Jan.214: ,1 Central Bank Source: CBRT. *External debt maturing within 1 year or less regardless of the original maturity. Last Observation: March 6,
47 The external debt maturity of firms is long and still improving. Real Sector External Debt Maturity (Percent) Years 5 Years 4 Years 3 Years 1-2 Years Source: CBRT. 47
48 Roll-over risks of private sector are minimal. Roll-over Ratios of External Debt (Percent) 1994 Crisis 21 Crisis 28 Crisis Banks - Loans Non-Resident Deposits Trade Credits Other Sectors - Loans Source: CBRT. Last Observation: 213Q4. 48
49 Majority of firms have no currency risk. Distribution of Firms with Different FX Loans/Exports Ratios % All Companies Small and Medium Sized Companies 3 24 Big Companies NO FX Loans < x 1 1 < x 2 2 < x 5 5 < x FX Loans with No Exports FX LOANS / EXPORTS RATIO Source: CBRT, Company Accounts Data Set. Date: Figures show the percentage of firms with different FX loans to Exports ratio (x). Total net sales of all firms in the sample is 71 percent of GDP in 212 Number of firms is
50 Overview: Inflation and Monetary Policy Retail loan growth continues to slow down in response to the tight monetary policy stance, recent macroprudential measures, and weak capital flows. The impact of monetary tightening on inflation will be observed with some lag. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to peak in May, partly reflecting the base effects. Exports will support growth while private final domestic demand will lose momentum in the forthcoming period. The current account deficit will improve substantially in
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