Forecasting Emerging Markets Equities the Role of Commodity Beta
|
|
- Nelson Perry
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Forecasting Emerging Markets Equities the Role of Commodity Beta Huiyu(Evelyn) Huang Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo& Co., LLC June 23, 215 For presentation at ISF 215. The opinions expressed here are solely those of the presenter. Copyright HuiyuHuang 215.
2 Outline Emerging markets (EM) countries commodities exposure Country-sector rotation strategy based on commodity returns and equity beta to commodities Data and methodology How and why it delivers excess return over the EM benchmark Is it a proxy for Value (or other prevailing alpha factors)? 1
3 Emerging markets are a diverse group of countries In terms of exposure to commodities 6 Net exports of crude oil in Russia UAE Venezuela Mexico Qatar Colombia Brazil Argentina Malaysia Egypt Indonesia Jordan Peru Slovakia Hungary Morocco Pakistan Czech Republic Chile Philippines Portugal Turkey South Africa Greece Poland Thailand Taiwan South Korea India China Thousand Barrels per Day As of 2/28/215 Source: International Energy Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration 2
4 Why does the net oil exporting position matter? Change in the price of oil will impact earnings outlook for upstream oil and gas producers. It will also impact the outlook for an EM country s current account balance. Big net exporters will suffer, but big oil importers will benefit as oil price drops. Improving current account situation helps reduce currency vulnerability (Krugman, 1979). Currency risk is not negligible for US dollar investors in EM space. Currency hedging is expensive in EM and often ineffective in reducing portfolio volatility at investment horizons beyond one year (LeGraw, 215). P. Krugman, A model of balance-of-payments crises, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 11(3): , C. LeGraw, The case for not currency hedging foreign equity investments: a U.S. investor s perspective, 215. GMO white paper at 3
5 Commodity return cycles Jan-71 Oct-72 Jul-74 Apr-76 Jan-78 Oct-79 Jul-81 Apr-83 Jan-85 Oct-86 Jul-88 Apr-9 Jan-92 Oct-93 Jul-95 Apr-97 Jan-99 Oct- Jul-2 Apr-4 Jan-6 Oct-7 Jul-9 Apr-11 Jan-13 Oct-14 Returns of commodities over 4 years Return correlation between commodity indices (18-month rolling return) GSCI DJ-UBS WTI Crude GSCI 1 DJ-UBS 92% 1 WTI Crude 83% 73% 1 As of 1/31/215 Source: Bloomberg, GMO GSCI DJ-UBS WTI Crude 4
6 How do EM equities react to change in commodity returns? Russia Energy: simple OLS beta, contemporaneous, and lead-lag. Russia Energy's beta to trailing 18-mth oil return Jan- Aug- Mar-1 Oct-1 May-2 Dec-2 Jul-3 Feb-4 Sep-4 Apr-5 Nov-5 Jun-6 Jan-7 Aug-7 Mar-8 Oct-8 May-9 Dec-9 Jul-1 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Jan-14 Aug-14 ret18 fwd3 fwd12 fwd18 fwd24 fwd36 As of 1/31/215 Source: Bloomberg, Standard & Poor s, GMO 5
7 How do EM equities react to change in commodity returns? For all EM country-sectors, and on a combination of GSCI, DJ-UBS, and Oil A model for EM country-sector relative return prediction through lead-lag beta on commodities First, aggregate stock returns relative to benchmark to the country-sector level Then, run a rolling window PLS regression for each country-sector on lagged commodity returns (standardized):,, Finally, use, as return forecast to form portfolios out-of-sample Lead-lag beta to oil in PLS regression Jan- Oct- Jul-1 Apr-2 Jan-3 Oct-3 Jul-4 Apr-5 Jan-6 Oct-6 Jul-7 Apr-8 Jan-9 Oct-9 Jul-1 Apr-11 Jan-12 Oct-12 Jul-13 Apr-14 Russia Energy China Energy India Energy As of 1/31/215 Source: Bloomberg, Standard & Poor s, GMO 6
8 Contrarian investor wins Strategy performance relative to S&P IFCI Composite index, 1/1995 to 1/215 For each month t, sort and group country-sectors into five buckets, based on the Commodity Alpha,, with each bucket consisting of 2% of the entire IFCI Composite index weight. Form a long-only fully invested portfolio of country-sectors based entirely on the first bucket using the square root of the country-sector s index weight. Strategy performance with varying forward return horizon h Raw commodity alpha h=3 h=6 h=12 h=18 h=24 h=36 Excess return Stdev Information Ratio Turnover Drawdown Cumulative relative performance of strategies 6-month moving average Excess return Stdev Information Ratio Turnover Drawdown Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 h=3 h=6 h=12 h=18 h=24 h=36 As of 1/31/215 Source: Bloomberg, Standard & Poor s, GMO 7
9 A story of sector rotations between defensives and cyclicals Defensives: Consumer Staples, Health Care, Telecoms, Utilities Cyclicals: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Financials, Industrials, Materials..8 Commodity alpha factor aggregated to sectors Jan-95 Nov-95 Sep-96 Jul-97 May-98 Mar-99 Jan- Nov- Sep-1 Jul-2 May-3 Mar-4 Jan-5 Nov-5 Sep-6 Jul-7 May-8 Mar-9 Jan-1 Nov-1 Sep-11 Jul-12 May-13 Mar-14 Jan-15 Consumer Staples Materials Defensives Cyclicals As of 1/31/215 Source: Bloomberg, Standard & Poor s, GMO 8
10 Is it a proxy for Value (or other prevailing alpha factors)? Value: price-to-book ratio Size: log of investible market capitalization Momentum: log of 12x1-month return (one based) Jan-95 Nov-95 Cross-sectional correlations between commodity alpha and other factors Sep-96 Jul-97 May-98 Mar-99 Jan- Nov- Sep-1 Jul-2 May-3 Mar-4 Jan-5 Nov-5 Sep-6 Jul-7 May-8 Value Size Momentum Mar-9 Jan-1 Nov-1 Sep-11 Jul-12 May-13 Mar-14 Jan-15 As of 1/31/215 Source: Bloomberg, Standard & Poor s, GMO 9
11 Is it a proxy for Value (or other prevailing alpha factors)? Regressions of forward h-month equity return on factors Single-factor regression (of relative return on) Multi-factor regression (of absolute return on) Commodity alpha R-squared Commodity alpha Value Size Momentum Adj. R- squared h=6 coefficient.39.6% % t-stat h=12 coefficient.23.4% % t-stat h=18 coefficient.9.1% % t-stat As of 1/31/215 Source: Bloomberg, Standard & Poor s, GMO 1
Quarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2018
Quarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2018 Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ) is not affiliated with [insert name of Advisor]. DFA Canada is a separate and distinct company. Market
More informationQuarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2017
Quarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2017 Market Update: A Quarter in Review March 31, 2017 CANADIAN STOCKS INTERNATIONAL STOCKS Large Cap Small Cap Growth Value Large Cap Small Cap Growth Value Emerging
More informationSan Francisco Retiree Health Care Trust Fund Education Materials on Public Equity
M E K E T A I N V E S T M E N T G R O U P 5796 ARMADA DRIVE SUITE 110 CARLSBAD CA 92008 760 795 3450 fax 760 795 3445 www.meketagroup.com The Global Equity Opportunity Set MSCI All Country World 1 Index
More informationGLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK
GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Max Darnell, Managing Partner, Chief Investment Officer All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. performance is no
More informationMonetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability
Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2016 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries William Shaw December 1999
Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2000 William Shaw December 1999 Prospects for Growth and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries Recovery from financial crisis uneven International
More informationLatin America Equities
Latin America Equities March 2013 Stephen Burrows, Senior Investment Manager Emerging Markets - Pictet Asset Management Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12
More informationPeru s Fundamentals and Economic Outlook
Peru s Fundamentals and Economic Outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru October 2016 Content 1. Slow Global Recovery 5. Gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus 2. Reversal in Peru s external
More informationThe Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to EMEs
The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to EMEs Tatjana Dahlhaus Garima Vasishtha Bank of Canada 13th Research Meeting of NIPFP-DEA Research Program March 6, 215 Introduction
More informationGLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK: FAVOR U.S.; STICK WITH EM
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS U.S. economic and earnings growth continue to stand out globally and support our positive view of U.S. equities. We continue to see upside potential
More informationChart Collection for Morning Briefing
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing November 14, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box 16 Figure
More informationAxioma Risk Monitor Emerging Markets 6 November 2018
Axioma Risk Monitor Emerging Markets 6 November 2018 1. Global volatility hotspots 2. Global correlation hotspots www.axioma.com Greater than 1% rise over last week Greater than 1% fall over last week
More informationGMO. CFA Society, Victoria. September 30, Arjun Divecha. North America Europe Asia-Pacific
North America Europe Asia-Pacific CFA Society, Victoria September 30, 2010 Arjun Divecha Proprietary information not for distribution beyond intended recipient. Overview San Francisco Boston London Zurich
More informationINVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 12, 2014 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan
More informationDRIEHAUS EMERGING MARKETS SMALL CAP GROWTH FUND January 2014 Summary
DRIEHAUS EMERGING MARKETS SMALL CAP GROWTH FUND January 204 Summary Key Features The fund seeks: Superior risk-adjusted returns Lower down-market capture ratios Lower volatility (relative to indices) objective
More informationQuarterly Investment Update
Quarterly Investment Update Second Quarter 2017 Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ) is not affiliated with The CM Group DFA Canada is a separate and distinct company Market Update: A Quarter
More informationFrontier Markets and a teaser of what is to come. Peter Elam Håkansson, Chairman and Partner
Frontier Markets and a teaser of what is to come Peter Elam Håkansson, Chairman and Partner The Frontier Markets Have the good old Emerging Markets lost their appeal? We remain convinced that Emerging
More informationEmerging Fixed Income A New Dawn. Simon Lue-Fong March 2007 I Lima
Emerging Fixed Income A New Dawn Simon Lue-Fong March 2007 I Lima Table of contents 1. The Changing Landscape Emerging USD Bonds have had a spectacular ride But where next? EMERGING USD BOND SPREADS SINCE
More informationRUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES. Bank of Russia.
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES Bank of Russia July 218 < -1% -1-9% -9-8% -8-7% -7-6% -6-5% -5-4% -4-3% -3-2% -2-1% -1 % 1% 1 2% 2 3% 3 4% 4 5% 5 6% 6 7% 7 8% 8 9% 9 1% 1 11% 11
More informationAxioma Risk Monitor Emerging Markets 3 May 2018
Axioma Risk Monitor Emerging Markets 3 May 2018 1. Global volatility hotspots 2. Global correlation hotspots www.axioma.com Greater than 1% rise over last week Greater than 1% fall over last week Greater
More informationFinancial markets in an interconnected world
Financial markets in an interconnected world Hyun Song Shin* Bank for International Settlements CFS Colloquium Seminar, Goethe University 23 March 2015 * Views expressed are my own, not necessarily those
More informationEQUITY REPORTING & WITHHOLDING. Updated May 2016
EQUITY REPORTING & WITHHOLDING Updated May 2016 When you exercise stock options or have RSUs lapse, there may be tax implications in any country in which you worked for P&G during the period from the
More informationP R E S E N T S. U.S. Economic Outlook Virtuous Growth
P R E S E N T S U.S. Economic Outlook Virtuous Growth December 2013 Presenter Robin Wehbé, CFA, CMT Director (617) 722-3965 Robin is the Lead Portfolio Manager on the Global Natural Resources Long/Short
More informationSummit Strategies Group
As of December 3, 203 US Equity: All Cap Russell 3000 Index 2.64 0.0 33.55 33.55 6.24 8.7 6.50 7.88 7.09 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index 2.63 0. 33.47 33.47 6.23 8.86 6.68 8.0 6.90 US Equity: Large
More informationChart Collection for Morning Briefing
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing January, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box 16 Figure 1.
More informationMexico: Dealing with international financial uncertainty. Manuel Sánchez
Manuel Sánchez United States Mexico Chamber of Commerce, Chicago, IL, August 6, 2015 Contents 1 Moderate economic growth 2 Waiting for the liftoff 3 Taming inflation 2 Since 2014, Mexico s economic recovery
More informationEmerging market equities
November 22, 2010 Emerging market equities Jean-Pierre Talon, FSA, FICA Introduction Focus of this presentation is to set out the rationale for a strategic bias toward emerging market equities Consider
More informationCalamos Evolving World Growth Fund
calamos.com Calamos Evolving World Growth Fund Companies Not Countries, an Innovative Approach Driven by Independent Thinking 2 CALAMOS EVOLVING WORLD GROWTH FUND Calamos Investments is a global investment
More informationPeru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru. September 2015
Peru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru September 2015 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments and prospects
More informationNORTH AMERICAN UPDATE
NORTH AMERICAN UPDATE December 6 th, 2018 INNOVATION INSIGHT GROWTH SINCE 1968 TOUGH YEAR FOR RETURNS AROUND THE WORLD Index Year-to-date Performance MSCI World -1.2% MSCI USA 3.9% MSCI Canada -3.9% MSCI
More informationChart Collection for Morning Briefing
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing March 22, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Figure 1.
More informationInternational Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF April 212 Towards Lasting Stability Global Economy Pulled Back from the Brink Policies Stepped
More informationWhy Invest In Emerging Markets? Why Now?
Why Invest In Emerging Markets? Why Now? 2018 Over the long term, Emerging Markets (EM) have been a winning alternative compared to traditional Developed Markets (DM)... 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 1998
More informationGlobal Economic Indictors: CRB Raw Industrials & Global Economy
Global Economic Indictors: & Global Economy December 14, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
More informationSummit Strategies Group
April 0, 205 US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index 0.45 5.9 2.26 2.74 6.86 4. 8.68 8.66 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index 0.46 5.9 2.27 2.67 6.78 4.7 8.78 8.8 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index
More informationWhy Invest In Emerging Markets? Why Now?
Why Invest In Emerging Markets? Why Now? 2017 Over the long term, Emerging Markets (EM) have been a winning alternative compared to traditional Developed Markets (DM)... 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 1997
More informationInternational Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF IMF Presentation April 3, The recovery is solidifying but it will take some time before it significantly
More informationSummit Strategies Group
May, 208 US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index 2.82.4 2.55 5.06 0.72 2.85 2.6 9.2 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index 2.8.5 2.57 5.09 0.68 2.78 2.58 9.27 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index 2.55 0.57
More informationSummit Strategies Group
June 0, 208 US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index 0.65.89.22 4.78.58.29.0 0.2 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index 0.66.87.25 4.79.56.22 2.98 0.28 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index 0.65.57 2.85 4.54.64.7.2
More informationSummit Strategies Group
August, 208 US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index.5 7.65 0.9 20.25 5.86 4.25 5.50 0.89 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index.48 7.64 0.4 20.26 5.82 4.2 5.45 0.94 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index.45
More informationSummit Strategies Group
October, 208 US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index -7.6 -.95 2.4 6.60.27 0.8.8.5 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index -7.4-4.04 2.9 6.56.24 0.76.75.6 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index -7.08 -.5 2.67
More informationSummit Strategies Group
October, 208 US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index -7.6 -.95 2.4 6.60.27 0.8.8.5 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index -7.4-4.04 2.9 6.56.24 0.76.75.6 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index -7.08 -.5 2.67
More informationDoes Economic Growth in Emerging Markets Drive Equity Returns?
Does Economic Growth in Emerging Markets Drive Equity Returns? Conrad Saldanha, CFA Portfolio Manager Emerging Market Equities August 00 Conventional wisdom suggests that a country s economic growth should
More informationSummit Strategies Group
US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index -.69 2.40.9 6.22 0.59 4.7 2.79 9.78 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index -.70 2.4.4 6.2 0.55 4.2 2.76 9.8 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index -.67 2.75.62 6.70
More informationSummit Strategies Group
US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index.72 7.7 5.67 26.29 9.92.85.87 7.64 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index - - - - - - - - US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index.87 7.95 5.96 25.5 0.9.94.9 7.69 Russell
More informationLatin America: the shadow of China
Latin America: the shadow of China Juan Ruiz BBVA Research Chief Economist for South America Latin America Outlook Second Quarter Madrid, 13 May Latin America Outlook / May Key messages 1 2 3 4 5 The global
More informationSupplement. for the. Emerging Markets Equity Fund
Supplement for the Emerging Markets Equity Fund 16 November 2017 Principal Global Investors Funds This Supplement contains specific information in relation to the Emerging Markets Equity Fund (the "Fund"),
More informationMarket Correlations: S&P 500
Market Correlations: S&P 500 September 25, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog.
More informationVantage Investment Partners. Quarterly Market Review
Vantage Investment Partners Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2016 Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2016 This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the
More informationPortfolio review as of October 20, 2010
Portfolio review as of October 20, 2010 Asset allocation summary Value on Oct 20 ($) % of portfolio A Cash and cash alternatives 224,238.92 2.99 U.S. cash 224,238.92 2.99 B Equities 6,283,324.13 83.89
More informationQuarterly Investment Update
Quarterly Investment Update Third Quarter 2017 Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ) is not affiliated with The CM Group DFA Canada is a separate and distinct company Market Update: A Quarter
More informationThe Science of Finance GEMX. Randolf Tantzscher / Istanbul / June 2012
The Science of Finance GEMX Randolf Tantzscher / Istanbul / June 2012 GEMX Index Family Current countries GEMX Overall Asia EEMEA LatAm China India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Sri Lanka Thailand Egypt
More informationAugust 8, 2006 Authorized for Public Release 148 of 158. Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos
August 8, 6 Authorized for Public Release 148 of 158 Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos Class II -- Restricted FR Page 1 of 4 Realized Volatility of MSCI Equity Indices 35 25 15 5 22 August 8, 6 Authorized
More informationDividends in Emerging Markets: Buy the High, Sell the Low
Allianz Global Investors White Paper Series January 2017 Dividends in Emerging Markets: Buy the High, Sell the Low Investors are clamoring for income via bond and equity strategies in the wake of today
More informationCapital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD
Capital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD Emerging Capital Markets Update for August 2011 All data are as of Wednesday, August 31, 2011. The regional indices are
More informationAll-Country Equity Allocator July 2018
Leila Heckman, Ph.D. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6261 John Mullin, Ph.D. jmullin@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6262 Allison Hay ahay@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6264 All-Country Equity Allocator July 2018 A
More informationFinancial stability risks: old and new
Financial stability risks: old and new Hyun Song Shin* Bank for International Settlements 4 December 2014 Brookings Institution Washington DC *Views expressed here are mine, not necessarily those of the
More informationAuscap Long Short Australian Equities Fund Newsletter June 2018
Auscap Long Short Australian Equities Fund Auscap Asset Management Limited Disclaimer: This newsletter contains performance figures and information in relation to the Auscap Long Short Australian Equities
More informationDriehaus Emerging Markets Growth Fund
DRIEHAUS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT THIRD QUARTER 207 Driehaus Emerging Markets Growth Fund Investor Class: Institutional Class: DIEMX KEY FEATURES All cap global emerging markets exposure mark aware, not benchmark
More informationFTSE Global Equity Index Series
FTSE Global Equity Index Series THE FTSE GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX SERIES With an unparalleled record of flexibility, transparency, consistent accuracy and the ability to meet any mandate, FTSE indices are already
More informationGuide to Treatment of Withholding Tax Rates. January 2018
Guide to Treatment of Withholding Tax Rates Contents 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Aims of the Guide 1 1.2. Withholding Tax Definition 1 1.3. Double Taxation Treaties 1 1.4. Information Sources 1 1.5. Guide Upkeep
More informationCOUNTRY COST INDEX JUNE 2013
COUNTRY COST INDEX JUNE 2013 June 2013 Kissell Research Group, LLC 1010 Northern Blvd., Suite 208 Great Neck, NY 11021 www.kissellresearch.com Kissell Research Group Country Cost Index - June 2013 2 Executive
More informationSeeking Diversification Through Emerging Markets July 2009
Seeking Diversification Through Emerging Introduction The ongoing shakeout in global markets has had far-reaching consequences for equities across the world. For developed market investors seeking diversification
More informationCapital Flows to Emerging Markets - The Perspective from the IIF
Capital Flows to Emerging Markets - The Perspective from the IIF Felix Huefner Global Macroeconomic Analysis Department Institute of International Finance 1 st Meeting of the COMCEC Financial Cooperation
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally
More informationRECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003
OCTOBER 23 RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK MEDIUM-TERM CHALLENGES 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In tandem with the global economic cycle, the Mexican
More informationSPECIAL REPORT: U.S. ALUMINUM IMPORT MONITOR. Data through May Issued: July 2018
SPECIAL REPORT: U.S. ALUMINUM IMPORT MONITOR Data through May 218 Issued: July 218 OVERVIEW OF SECTION 232 Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended, authorizes the President to adjust
More informationDoes One Law Fit All? Cross-Country Evidence on Okun s Law
Does One Law Fit All? Cross-Country Evidence on Okun s Law Laurence Ball Johns Hopkins University Global Labor Markets Workshop Paris, September 1-2, 2016 1 What the paper does and why Provides estimates
More informationMarket Correlations: Expected Inflation in TIPS
Market Correlations: in TIPS April, 8 Dr. Edward Yardeni 56-97-768 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 7-497-56 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664- aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
More informationThe Myth of Diversification: Risk Factors vs. Asset Classes
The Myth of Diversification: Risk Factors vs. Asset Classes Sébastien Page, CFA Executive Vice President April 2011 PIMCO Canada will retain PIMCO LLC as a subadvisor. PIMCO Canada Corp., 120 Adelaide
More informationEmerging Markets Small-Cap
Emerging Markets Small-Cap October 2017 THIS MATERIAL IS FOR USE OF PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY, EXCEPT IN THE U.S. WHERE THE MATERIAL IS FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY AND MAY NOT BE USED WITH THE
More informationTIGER: Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery By Eswar Prasad and Karim Foda
TIGER: Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery By Eswar Prasad and Karim Foda Technical Appendix Methodology In our analysis, we employ a statistical procedure called Principal Component Analysis
More information3rd Research Conference Towards Recovery and Sustainable Growth in the Altered Global Environment
3rd Research Conference Towards Recovery and Sustainable Growth in the Altered Global Environment Erdem Başçı Governor 28-29 April 214, Skopje Overview: Inflation and Monetary Policy Retail loan growth
More informationNo use buying the best house in a bad neighbourhood
No use buying the best house in a bad neighbourhood Why an active approach to emerging markets is crucial; emerging markets go right or wrong at a country level. We believe the single most important investment
More informationEmerging Market Debt attractive yield with solid fundamentals
For professional use only Not for Public distribution Emerging Market Debt attractive yield with solid fundamentals November 2012 Kevin Daly, Senior Portfolio Manager EMD Aberdeen Asset Management Table
More informationMonetary Policy under Fed Normalization and Other Challenges
Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* Santander Latin America Day London, June 28 th, 2018 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author
More informationEmerging & Frontier Markets Expanding the Opportunity Set
NORTHERN TRUST 2010 INSTITUTIONAL CLIENT CONFERENCE Reaching for the New Gold Standard of Investing Emerging & Frontier Markets Expanding the Opportunity Set Moderator: Julia Bristow Briggs Senior Investment
More informationOUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc.
OUTLOOK 2014/2015 BMO Asset Management Inc. We would like to take this opportunity to provide our capital markets outlook for the remainder of 2014 and the first half of 2015 and our recommended asset
More informationSummit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri
Summit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri 63105 314.727.7211 Quarterly Review Global Equity Market Update GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS CALENDAR YEAR RETURNS 2002 2003 2004 2005
More informationMarket Correlation: Emerging Markets MSCI
Market Correlation: MSCI March 2, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-536 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside
More informationPresentation The role of fixed income today. Quentin Fitzsimmons. Senior Portfolio Manager, Fixed Income T. Rowe Price
Presentation The role of fixed income today Quentin Fitzsimmons Senior Portfolio Manager, Fixed Income T. Rowe Price THE ROLE OF FIXED INCOME TODAY Quentin Fitzsimmons Global Fixed Income Portfolio Manager
More informationDFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Quarterly Performance Report Q2 2014
DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Quarterly Performance Report Q2 2014 This presentation has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ), manager of the Dimensional Funds.
More informationHSBC Fund Update. HSBC GIF Global Emerging Markets Bond. April Market overview. Portfolio strategy
HSBC Fund Update April 2016 HSBC GIF Global Emerging Markets Bond Market overview The rally in Emerging Market (EM) assets continued in March given the improvement in global risk sentiment on the back
More informationNEWTON GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS STRATEGY
July 2018 NEWTON GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS STRATEGY For institutional investors only. Not for distribution outside the U.S. or to individual investors. Compared to more established economies, the value of
More informationJuly 2012 Chartbook The Halftime Report
Average Daily $VA LUE Traded ($Billions ) $Billions (212 ( US China Japan CHI-X London Hong Kong Germany France Canada Korea Australia Brazil Taiwan Spain India Italy $billions Switzerland Sweden Amsterdam
More informationSPECIAL REPORT: U.S. ALUMINUM IMPORT MONITOR. March Issued: May 2018
SPECIAL REPORT: U.S. ALUMINUM IMPORT MONITOR March 218 Issued: May 218 OVERVIEW OF SECTION 232 Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended, authorizes the President to adjust the imports
More informationPortfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios
Portfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios As of Sept. 30, 2017 Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., ("Ameriprise Financial") is the investment manager for Active Opportunity
More informationBond Basics July 2007
Bond Basics: Emerging Market (External and Local Markets) Developing economies around the world, known to investors as emerging markets (EM), are rapidly maturing into key players in the global economy
More informationCosa ci riserva il 2008?
Cosa ci riserva il 28? Scenari e previsioni per l anno in corso Keith Wade Capo Economista The US economy today A re-assessment of risk De-leveraging Financial sector Real economy Historical precedents
More informationRUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY. RUSSIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY December 2018
4% RUSSIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND December 1 2 Consumer prices (1) At the end of 1, inflation is expected to be close to 4%, which corresponds to the Bank of Russia s target 2 Inflation indicators, % YoY
More informationFUND OF HEDGE FUNDS DO THEY REALLY ADD VALUE?
FUND OF HEDGE FUNDS DO THEY REALLY ADD VALUE? Florian Albrecht, Jean-Francois Bacmann, Pierre Jeanneret & Stefan Scholz, RMF Investment Management Man Investments Hedge funds have attracted significant
More informationMarket Briefing: Correlated Markets
Market Briefing: Correlated Markets September 25, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table
More informationMarket Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar
Market Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar March 11, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-536 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog.
More informationAll-Country Equity Allocator February 2018
Leila Heckman, Ph.D. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6261 John Mullin, Ph.D. jmullin@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6262 Charles Waters cwaters@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6264 All-Country Equity Allocator February
More informationMarket Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies
Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies October 26, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-536 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit
More informationDFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q3 2015
DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q3 2015 This presentation has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ), manager of the Dimensional Funds. This presentation
More informationDFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q3 2018
DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q3 2018 This presentation has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ), manager of the Dimensional Funds. This presentation
More informationDFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q4 2017
DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q4 2017 This presentation has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ), manager of the Dimensional Funds. This presentation
More informationDFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q2 2017
DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q2 2017 This presentation has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ), manager of the Dimensional Funds. This presentation
More informationEconomic Outlook. Macro Research Itaú Unibanco
Economic Outlook Macro Research Itaú Unibanco June, 2013 Agenda Economia Global Heterogeneous growth: U.S. growing faster, Europe in recession. Deceleration in the emerging economies. The Fed signals a
More information