Emerging Fixed Income A New Dawn. Simon Lue-Fong March 2007 I Lima
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1 Emerging Fixed Income A New Dawn Simon Lue-Fong March 2007 I Lima
2 Table of contents 1. The Changing Landscape
3 Emerging USD Bonds have had a spectacular ride But where next? EMERGING USD BOND SPREADS SINCE Brazil Devaluation (Jan 99) 1000 Ecuador Default (Aug 99) Argentina Default (Dec 01) Argentina Restructuring (Jun 05) Index : JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Source : Bloomberg 3 01/01/99 01/05/99 01/09/99 01/01/00 01/05/00 01/09/00 01/01/01 01/05/01 01/09/01 01/01/02 01/05/02 01/09/02 01/01/03 01/05/03 01/09/03 01/01/04 01/05/04 01/09/04 01/01/05 01/05/05 01/09/05 01/01/06 01/05/06 01/09/06
4 The Emerging Market opportunity set has changed The future is Local Bonds USD BOND S LOCAL CURRENCIES LOCAL CURRENCIES AND BONDS PAST FUTUR E 4
5 .reflecting the reality of asset class growth High growth in Local Bonds versus stagnation in USD Bonds MARKET VALUE USD MILLIONS SINCE Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Emerging Local Bonds Emerging USD Bonds Indices : JP Morgan GBI-EM Broad Diversified and JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Source : JP Morgan 5
6 as local debt issuance rises versus external debt issuance This pattern is expected to accelerate GROWTH IN DOMESTIC AND EXTERNAL GOVERNMENT DEBT FROM % Mexico Poland Colombia Hungary Brazil Domestic Debt External Debt Source : Institute of International Finance 6
7 Emerging Local Bonds are investment grade EMERGING LOCAL BONDS UNIVERSE 1 Middle East/Africa 10% Latin Am erica 24% As ia 37% Europe 29% Yield: 6.58% Duration: 4.27 years Average rating: BBB+ Source & Notes 1 JP Morgan GBI-EM Broad Diversified Index as of end-october
8 in addition to being well diversified EMERGING LOCAL BONDS COUNTRY WEIGHTS 1 Peru Chile Russia Slovakia Colombia Indonesia Turke y Czech Turke y Tha ila nd Hunga ry Malaysia South Africa Poland Me xic o India China Brazil (%) Source & Notes 1 JP Morgan GBI-EM Broad Diversified Index as of end-october
9 Table of contents 2. A Twofold Tale
10 Emerging Market fundamentals have improved dramatically
11 Strong economic growth is occurring... And is unlikely to be derailed ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDICATORS (ADVANCED) Source: Pictet 11
12 which contributes to Improving government finances EMERGING ECONOMIES FISCAL BALANCES (% of GDP) Source: JP Morgan 12
13 Vulnerability to external shocks is falling reflecting Improving external accounts EXTERNAL DEBT SERVICING AS % OF RESERVES Source: Pictet 13
14 Meanwhile policies converge A move to inflation targeting and floating FX regimes Instrument Target Adoption Date Asia Korea Headline CPI 2001 Philippines Headline CPI 2002 Thailand Core CPI 2000 Europe Czech Republic Headline CPI 1998 Hungary Headline CPI 2001 Israel Headline CPI 1997 Poland Headline CPI 1998 Turkey Headline CPI % of emerging market central banks target inflation Since 1996, 19 emerging market countries have moved to a floating FX regime Latin America Chile Headline CPI 1999 Colombia Headline CPI 1999 Brazil CPIA (broad) 1999 Mexico Headline CPI 2001 Peru Headline CPI 2002 Africa South Africa Headline CPI 2000 Source: JP Morgan, September
15 enabling the improving credit trend to continue MOODY S SOVEREIGN CREDIT CHANGES Upgrade Poland Hungary Korea Mexico Thailand Slovenia Hungary Malaysia Mexico Trinidad & Tobago Israel Brazil Barbados Fiji Russia Romania Ukraine Bulgaria Slovakia Kazakhstan Dom Rep South Africa Lithuania Russia Romania Bahrain Pakistan Ukraine Mexico Kuwait Qatar Malaysia Korea Czech R Estonia Hungary Kazakhstan Latvia Poland Slovakia Slovenia India Lithuania Russia Romania Jordan Bahrain Pakistan Ukraine China Indonesia Argentina Thailand Macau Tunisia Saudi Arabia Bulgaria Moldova UAE Malaysia Bulgaria Brazil Venezuela (2 notches) Romania India Ecuador Romania Qatar South Africa Slovakia Mexico Brazil Saudi Arabia Russia Turkey Trindad & Tobago Vietnam Argentina Slovakia Tunisia Bahrain Botswana Jordan Kuwait Mauritius Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE India Kazakhstan Mongolia Turkmenistan Bosnia Bulgaria Lithuania Romania Slovenia Trinidad Fiji Hong Kong Indonesia Macau Papua NG Brazil Chile Honduras Nicaragua Paraguay Suriname Downgrade Columbia Ecuador Kazakhstan Argentina Ukraine Argentina Lebanon Ukraine Moldova Brazil Uruguay Moldova (x2) Venezuela Bolivia Jamaica Paraguay Venezuela Nicaragua Dom Rep (x2) Belize Dom Rep Philippines Belize Lebanon Philippines Belize Lebanon to 31/10/2006 Source: Bloomberg (October 2006) Credit changes opposite to the previous credit change for a single country indicated thus 15
16 An extremely favourable supply and demand dynamic is at work
17 A Structural shift is in motion Demand for Emerging Local Bonds outstrips supply 17 Switch to Local Financin g Demand Supply Local Pension Funds Foreign Pension Funds EM LOCAL MARKETS
18 Emerging Markets are at the forefront of pension reform MAP INDICATING COUNTRIES WHERE PENSION REFORM HAS OCCURRED Source: 18
19 ...growing pension funds absorb local supply easily Leaving little for other investors SELECTION OF LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES PENSION FUNDS ADMINISTERED (USD MILLIONS) 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 Chile Mexico 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Colombi a Peru 0 Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Mar.2005 Sep Mar.2006 Sep Source: 19
20 Emerging Local Bonds will be a fact of life Pension Funds are starved of cashflow.
21 Table of contents 3. A Compelling Investment Case
22 Emerging Local Bonds are high returning ANNUALISED RETURNS SINCE END-2001 S&P % Global Bonds 4.88% High Grade Bonds 6.52% Russell % Asia Local Bonds 9.83% High Yield Bonds 10.56% Commodities 10.88% Emerging USD Bonds 13.35% Emerging Local Bonds 16.10% Emerging Equities 24.22% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% Annualized historical data : Source : JP Morgan / HSBC / Bloomberg 22
23 and are well diversified with other asset classes Correlations (Monthly ) Emerging Local Bonds Asia Local Bonds Emerging USD Bonds Commodities Global Bonds High Grade Bonds High Yield Bonds Emerging Equities S&P 500 Russell 2000 Emerging Local Bonds Asia Local Bonds Emerging USD Bonds Commodities Global Bonds High Grade Bonds High Yield Bonds Emerging Equities S&P Russell Historical data : Source : JP Morgan/HSBC/Bloomberg 23
24 in addition to being well diversified within the asset class Correlations (Monthly ) Asia Europe LatAm ME/Africa Asia Europe LatAm ME/Africa 1.00 Historical data : Source : Bloomberg 24
25 while the level of risk compares favourably Emerging Local Bonds Asia Local Bonds Emerging USD Bonds Commodities Global Bonds High Grade Bonds High Yield Bonds Emerging Equities S&P 500 Russell 2000 Sharpe Ratios Historical data : Source : Bloomberg 25
26 Principal components of return are split between Bonds and FX With bond returns outweighing FX returns and with lower volatility CUMULATIVE RETURNS SINCE END Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Bonds FX Annualized historical data : Source : JP Morgan 26
27 Speaker Simon Lue-Fong Head of Global Emerging Debt Fixed Income team Simon Lue-Fong joined Pictet Asset Management in 2005 as a Senior Investment Manager and Head of Global Emerging Debt with responsibility for investment management, product development and client relations. He has been an investment manager since His first role was managing Global Bonds and Currencies. In 1996 he set up an Emerging Markets Debt business in external debt and local currency at Fischer Francis Trees & Watts. Before joining Pictet, he worked for Standard Asset Management and INVESCO in their respective Emerging Markets Debt teams. Simon graduated from Bournemouth University with a BA (Hons) degree in Finance. 27
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