Peru s fundamentals and economic perspectives
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1 Peru s fundamentals and economic perspectives Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2014
2 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments and prospects 3. Monetary Policy Framework 4. Closing remarks 2
3 Peru s GDP growth is expected to be among the highest in the region in 2014 World GDP : 2014 (percentage change) Peru: 6,0% Source: WEO and BCRP. 3
4 GDP growth was the highest among the region s leading economies 6,2 GDP in Latin America : * (average percentage change) Peru Argentina Colombia Chile Uruguay Brazil Venezuela Mexico Source: WEO IMF. * Gross domestic product at constant prices 4
5 Higher capital accumulation contributes to sustainable output growth Total Investment: 2013 * (percentage of GDP) , * Forecast Source: WEO IMF 5
6 Foreign direct investment increased by 6 times in the last decade Foreign Direct Investment (Stock in billions of US$) Annual growth rate 7,0 6,0 2,6 3,4 19,4 28,9 30,9 20,6 6,7 24,5 19,2 23,9 17,4 6
7 In 2012, FDI flows increased by 49 percent, whereas they increased 27 percent in the first half of 2013 Foreign Direct Investment Flows by Country (in billions of US$) Countries 2012 I Sem Growth rate 2012 I Sem Peru 12, 2 6,9 49% 27% Chile 30,2 10,4 32% -26% Argentina 12,6 5,2 27% -32% Paraguay 0,3 n.a. 27% - Bolivia 1,1 n.a. 23% - Colombia 15,8 8,3 18% 5% Uruguay 2,7 1,6 8% 8% Brazil 65,3 39,0-2% -10% Ecuador 0,4 n.a. -13% - Venezuela 3,2 2,7-15% 44% Mexico 15,5 23,8-34% 158% Source: ECLAC 7
8 Higher FDI flows mainly in the mining and hydrocarbon sectors Foreign Direct Investment Flows by Sector (millions of US$) Sector Number of times Hydrocarbon Mining Financial sector Non-financial services Manufacturing Energy and others TOTAL
9 Continuous increase in employment rates, even during the financial crisis Urban Employment 1/ ( Percentage change) / Enterprises with 10 or more workers Source: Ministry of Labor and Promotion of Employment 9
10 Permanent increase in payroll due to sustained economic growth Payroll Lima (Real % change) Source: INEI 10
11 After hyper-inflation in 1990, monetary policy was reformed and inflation was reduced Inflation Rate (End of period) ,5% Inflation target
12 Average inflation of 2,3 percent in the last 13 years Inflation in Latin America: * (%) Venezuela Argentina Uruguay Brazil Colombia Mexico Chile Peru Peru** Source: WEO IMF * Inflation, consumer price index, end of period ** Excludes food and energy 12
13 Poverty is at its lowest level of the last 25 years Peru: Poverty Rate (as percentage of population) Latin America: Poverty reduction (in percentage points) Peru Brazil Ecuador Uruguay a/ Colombia Latin America Venezuela Paraguay Panama Dominican Republic Honduras b/ Chile c/ Costa Rica 1Mexico d/ Source: ECLAC a/ Percentage change , b/ Percentage change , c/ Percentage change , d/ Percentage change
14 Significantly lower financial dollarization, despite still being an important source of risk for the financial sector Credit to the private sector: Dollarization ratio (%) Jan
15 Preventive accumulation of international reserves is fundamental to reduce the risks of financial dollarization Peru: Net foreign exchange reserves (in millions of US$) 63,991 65,663 44,105 48,816 27,688 31,196 33,135 8,403 8,179 8,613 9,598 10,194 12,631 14,097 17,
16 in percent of adequacy metric High reserve adequacy ratio compared to other emerging economies Reserves relative to other emerging economies 1/ Russia Romania Peru Brazil Indonesia Colombia Chile Mexico South Africa Poland Hungary in percent of GDP 1/ The composite adequacy metric Is a weighted sum of exports, short-term debt, portfolio liabilities, and broad money (FMI, 2011). 16
17 and its public debt stock is among the lowest in the region Gross public debt: 2013* (% GDP) Brazil Malaysia Vietnam Thailand Mexico Philippines Korea Colombia Indonesia Peru Chile * Forecast 17
18 Net public debt is expected to fall to 2,1% in 2015 NON FINANCIAL PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT STOCK: GROSS AND NET DEBT 46.9 (percentage of GDP) 38.5 Gross Debt 32.3 Net Debt * 2015* * Forecast 18
19 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments and prospects 3. Monetary Policy Framework 4. Closing remarks 19
20 Improvement in the majority of indicators of macroeconomic expectations MACROECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS SURVEY RESULTS November December January CURRENT BUSINESS SITUATION SALES INVENTORIES (COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MONTH) SALE ORDERS (COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MONTH) FINANCIAL SITUATION ACCESS TO CREDIT MONTH FINAL PRODUCT DEMAND EXPECTATIONS MONTH NEW HIRINGS EXPECTATIONS MONTH MACROECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS MONTH INDUSTRY EXPECTATIONS
21 Consumer Confidence Index showed an optimistic level of 57 points in January. E.10 M M J S N E.11 M M J S N E.12 M M J S N E.13 M M J S N E.14 Consumer Confidence Index Better Worse Unchange Better Index + + Unchanged Worse = - = - 57 Fuente: Apoyo Consultoría. January 2013 (Index value: 57) Percentage % Better 27 Unchanged 59 Worse 14 21
22 Investors Confidence Index increased to 64 points in January 100 ÍNDICE DE INVERSIÓN A 6 MESES Respecto de proyectos de inversión: Qué medidas realizará su empresa en los próximos seis meses? Investor s Confidence Index Reducir Mantener Acelerar Índice Increase = Remain constant Source: Apoyo Consultoría J.12 J A S D M.13 M J J A S N D E.14 January 2013 (Index value: 64) Percentage % Increase investment 29 Remain constant 69 Reduce Reduce 22
23 Peru s GDP is expected to grow 6,0 percent in 2014 GDP growth rate 2014 (annual percentage change) Peru 6.0 Bolivia Paraguay Colombia Ecuador Chile Uruguay Mexico Brazil 2.0 Argentina 0.2 Venezuela -1.0 Source: Consensus Forecast, February 2014 and BCRP 23
24 GDP growth in Peru is expected to be among the highest in the world in the next 10 years GDP Growth (Annual average, %) 7,0 6,7 5,5 5,4 5,3 5,2 4,7 4,7 4,5 4,4 4,4 4,3 3,9 3,9 3,8 3,7 3,7 3,6 3,6 3,5 India China Indonesia Peru Philippines Malaysia Turkey Thailand Chile Lithuania Colombia Singapore Latvia Ukraine Mexico Estonia Poland Taiwan Hong Kong South Korea Source: Consensus Forecasts (Oct. 2013). 24
25 The recovery of the primary sectors will be associated with the start-up of investment projects GDP Growth (Real % change) * Agriculture and livestock 4,4 3,7 Fishing 1,5 4,4 Mining and hydrocarbons 2,0 11,9 Manufacturing 3,9 5,0 Electricity and water 5,8 6,0 Construction 11,0 7,6 Commerce 7,2 6,1 Other services 6,8 6,4 GDP 6,2 6,3 *Forecast 25
26 consistent with the behavior of private investment GDP Growth (Real % change) * Private Consumption 5,8 5,3 Private fixed investment 9,3 6,7 Public expenditure 10,5 8,8 Exports 3,5 10,3 Imports 7,6 7,0 GDP 6,2 6,3 *Forecast 26
27 US$ 28,5 billion of private investment announcements for the next two years PRIVATE INVESTMENT PROJECTS ANNOUNCEMENTS (in millions of US$) September IR December IR Mining Hydrocarbons % Stock of Announced Investment Projects (in millions of US$) September IR December IR Total Source: Specialized Media and Newspapers Electricity Industrial Infraestructure Other Sectors Total Source: Specialized Media and Newspapers 27
28 Copper production would double in 2015 COPPER PRODUCTION (in thousands of metric tons) 2,577 1,996 1,198 1,281 1, * 2015* 2016* *Forecast 28
29 Investment in the mining sector increased 14,3% in 2013 INVESTMENT IN THE MINING SECTOR: JANUARY - NOVEMBER (in millions of US$) PROJECT FIRM JANUARY - NOVEMBER Var. % Las Bambas XSTRATA LAS BAMBAS S.A Cerro Verde SOCIEDAD MINERA CERRO VERDE S.A.A Toromocho MINERA CHINALCO PERÚ S.A Antapaccay COMPAÑIA MINERA ANTAPACCAY S.A Antamina COMPAÑIA MINERA ANTAMINA S.A Constancia HUDBAY PERU S.A.C Toquepala / Cuajone SOUTHERN PERU COPPER CORPORATION SUCU Conga MINERA YANACOCHA S.R.L La Arena LA ARENA S.A Planta de Óxidos EMPRESA ADMINISTRADORA CERRO S.A.C Pindo y Parcoy CONSORCIO MINERO HORIZONTE S.A Colquijirca SOCIEDAD MINERA EL BROCAL S.A.A Quellaveco ANGLO AMERICAN QUELLAVECO S.A Lagunas Norte MINERA BARRICK MISQUICHILCA S.A Río Tinto RIO TINTO MINERA PERU LIMITADA SAC Others TOTAL Source : MINEM 29
30 Trade balance would be positive due to new mining projects starting in 2014 Trade Balance (Billion US$) * 2015* 2016* * 2015* 2016* % Change Volume Exports -2,1 8,0 12,9 14,6 Imports 5,5 4,4 7,7 7,2 % Change Price Exports -7,3-5,1 0,0 0,9 Imports -2,7-2,8 0,2 1,6 * Forecast 30
31 Current account deficit financed by long-term capital inflows CURRENT ACCOUNT PLUS LONG - TERM EXTERNAL CAPITAL INFLOWS OF PRIVATE SECTOR 1/ : (% GDP) * 2015* 2016* 31 1/ Includes net foreign investments, portfolio investment and private sector s long-term disbursement. * Forecast
32 Indicators of Financial Vulnerability Indicators of Financial Vulnerability Unit Dollarization of credit to the private sector % Dollarization of public debt % NIR/ST liabilities + amortization on external debt times 7,4 3,7 7,9 4 ST banks foreign liabilities/banking credit % 4,9 5,3 2,7 5 ST banks liabilities (deposits + credit lines)/rrs times 3,1 2,5 1,7 6 Non-residents holdings of local public debt/public sector deposits % 0,0 11,9 21,5 7 Average maturity of the public debt years 7,6 11,2 12,5 8 NIR/GDP % 16,6 24,5 31,6 9 Domestic Currency Deposits/CB FX Position % 0,6 0,6 0,9 32
33 Korea Indonesia Russia Thailand Mexico Argentina Brazil Turkey Philippines Venezuela Ukraine Poland Romania Czech Republic Hungary South Africa Israel Chile Kasakhstan Egypt India Taiwan Colombia Malaysia China Peru Short term external debt / foreign reserves EM stress metric: short - term debt / reserves IMF: STXD/Reserves (1997) DB: STXD/Reserves (2013) Source: IMF, Haver Analytics, Deutsche Bank 33
34 Peru has a low level of external vulnerability compared to the region F 2014F Moody's External Vulnerability Indicator Chile Uruguay Argentina Mexico Colombia Peru Brazil Source: Moody s, November The indicator is calculated as (Short-Term External Debt + Currently Maturing Long-Term External Debt + Total Nonresident Deposits Over One Year)/Official Foreign Exchange Reserves 34
35 Peru is among the least vulnerable emerging economies with a high level of foreign exchange reserves and fiscal surplus Fiscal Balance Fiscal Balance India India Economic Indicators for Emerging Countries Economic Indicators for Emerging Countries Economic 40.0 Forex Indicators Reserves Forex for / Emerging Countries 40,0 GDPReserves/GDP Forex Reserves/GDP Poland Poland Israel Israel Israel 40, , , ,0 Hungary Hungary Hungary Brazil Brazil Brazil 15,0 10, ,0 5, ,0 0, ,0 China China China Turkey Turkey Turkey Mexico Mexico MexicoColombia Colombia Colombia Argentina Argentina Argentina Russia Russia Russia , , , , , , ,5 20, , , , ,5 Chile Chile Chile -8,5-7,5-6,5-5,5-4,5-3,5-2,5-1,5-0,5 0, ,0 Lower than Lower average than average 35,0 30,0 25,0 Higher than Higher average than average Peru Peru Peru HIgher than HIgher average than average Lower than Lower average than average 35
36 The fiscal balance is expected to be near zero in 2014 and 2015 FISCAL SURPLUS (as percentage of GDP) * 2014* 2015* * Forecast 36
37 Peru s fiscal surplus is among the highest in the region Overall balance: average (% GDP) Korea Peru Chile Thailand Indonesia Philippines Colombia Brazil Vietnam Mexico Malaysia Overall balance: 2013* (% GDP) Korea Peru Chile Philippines Colombia Indonesia Thailand Brazil Mexico Vietnam Malaysia * Forecast 37
38 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments and prospects 3. Monetary Policy Framework 4. Closing remarks 38
39 The Central Bank of Peru lowered its monetary policy interest rate to 4,0 percent in November % jun/08 oct/08 mar/09 ago/09 ene/10 jun/10 nov/10 mar/11 ago/11 ene/12 jun/12 oct/12 mar/13 ago/13 ene/ Central Bank policy interest rate vs 90 day corporate interest rate (In percentage points) Policy interest rate 90 day corporate interest rate 39
40 Output growth is expected to remain close to its potential level 7 6 Output gap 5 4 Feb. 2014: 4,0 % Output gap Policy interest rate
41 Macroprudential policies to keep sustainable credit growth and to support the dedollarization process Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 jul-12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec 13 Jan 14 Feb 14 Mar 14 % 35 Domestic Currency Reserve Ratio (As percentage of total obligations subject to legal requirements) Average required DC Marginal DC 30 30,0 30,0 30, ,0 25, , Jun.13: Establishment of maximum average rate of reserve requirement of 20% Liquidity provided: S/. 480 mill. Aug.13: Reduce maximum average rate of reserve requirement to 19% Liquidity provided: S/. 567 mill. Sep.13: Reduce maximum average rate of reserve requirement to 17%. Liquidity provided: S/ mill. Oct.13: Reduce maximum average rate of reserve requirement to 16%. Liquidity provided: S/ mill. Dec.13: Reduce maximum average rate of reserve requirement to 15%. Liquidity provided: S/ mill. Jan.14: Reduce maximum average rate of reserve requirement to 14%. Liquidity provided: S/ mill. 16,0 16,0 15,0 14,0 Feb.14: Reduce maximum average rate of reserve requirement to 13%. Liquidity provided: S/ mill. 13,0 12,5 Mar.14: Reduce maximum average rate of reserve requirement to 12,5%. 41
42 Higher preference for credit in domestic currency since the second quarter of 2013 CREDIT TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR (yoy percentage change) Soles Dólares Total 23,4 13,7 2,1 feb-13 mar-13 apr-13 may-13 jun-13 jul-13 aug-13 sep-13 oct-13 nov-13 dec-13 jan-14 Stock in millions of S/ Soles feb12 mar12 abr12 may12 jun12 jul12 ago12 sep12 oct12 nov12 dic12 ene13 feb13 mar13 abr13 may13 jun13 jul13 ago13 sep13 oct13 nov13 dic13 ene14 Dollars (millions of US$) Monthly flows (millions of S/.) Soles Dollars (millions of US$) feb mar-13 apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan Annual Stock in percentage millions of S/. change 17614, , , , , , , , , , , ,7 740 Soles 9715, , , , , , , , , , , ,4 706 Dollars (millions of US$) 2814, , , , , , , , , , , ,1 Monthly flows (millions of S/.) Soles Dollars (millions of US$) Annual percentage change 14,8 14,1 13,6 13,1 12,8 12,7 13,3 12,8 13,4 14,2 13,1 13,7 Soles 15,4 15,9 16,8 17,3 17,6 18,2 19,2 20,3 21,6 23,1 22,4 23,4 Dollars 14,0 11,8 9,8 8,0 7,1 6,2 6,1 3,8 3,5 3,5 2,0 2,1 42
43 Mortgages and credit to households reduced their pace of growth, whereas credit to firms keeps its dynamism Credit to the Private Sector (Annual growth rates) Dec. 12 Dec. 13 Jan. 14 Credit to Firms 13,3 13,0 14,0 Credit to Households 19,4 13,4 13,3 Consumption 15,3 11,4 11,6 Car Loans 25,2 14,5 12,9 Credit cards 13,4 8,2 8,8 Others 15,6 12,9 13,0 Mortgage 25,7 16,2 15,6 TOTAL 15,1 13,1 13,7 43
44 Housing prices increased by 14 percent in 2013 IV 98 IV 99 IV 00 IV 01 IV 02 IV 03 IV 04 IV 05 IV 06 IV 07 IV 08 IV 09 IV 10 IV 11 IV 12 IV Median sale price of apartments by m2 La Molina, Miraflores, San Borja, San Isidro and Surco US$ 670 Average price 1998 I IV US$ 817 US$ PER: SALE PRICE / ANNUAL RENT IN US$ by m2 1/ IVT IVT IVT IVT La Molina 16,1 15,8 11,6 16,4 Miraflores 13,3 15,7 15,0 15,9 San Borja 14,7 17,2 18,2 16,7 San Isidro 13,8 16,7 18,4 17,7 Surco 14,7 16,3 15,0 16,6 Average 14,1 15,2 15,8 16,1 1/ These ratios were calculated using the median of sale prices in each district. 44
45 Soles per US$ Since May 2013, the Central Bank intervened to reduce volatility in the foreign exchange market Millions of US$ Exchange rate and foreign exchange intervention Millions of US$ Net Purchases Jan Apr May Dec * * As of February 21. Net dollar purchases Exchange rate 45
46 Long term interest rates are consistent with recent developments in the world economy and macroeconomic fundamentals jul/10 ago/10 sep/10 oct/10 nov/10 dic/10 ene/11 feb/11 mar/11 abr/11 may/11 jun/11 jul/11 ago/11 sep/11 oct/11 nov/11 dic/11 ene/12 feb/12 mar/12 abr/12 may/12 jun/12 jul/12 ago/12 sep/12 oct/12 nov/12 dic/12 ene/13 feb/13 mar/13 abr/13 may/13 jun/13 jul/13 ago/13 sep/13 oct/13 nov/13 dic/13 ene/14 feb/14 Yield (%) Country 10-year Treasury bond yield Tasa (%) Dec 12 Apr 13 Dec 13 Feb LATAM 10-year Treasury Bond Yield Policy Rate Brazil ,57 9,70 13,21 12,79 10,50 Colombia ,73 4,91 6,79 7,29 3,25 Mexico ,55 4,59 6,54 6,38 3,50 Peru ,10 4,11 5,60 6,67 4,00 Brazil Colombia Mexico Peru Perú Colombia Mexico Brasil Source: Bloomberg 46
47 Non-resident Treasury bond holdings Non-resident Treasury bond holdings (in millions of S/.) 20,000 19,500 19,691 19,000 18,500 18,000 17,500 17,258 18,021 17,602 17,000 16,870 16,500 16,000 15,500 15,000 Dec 12 Apr 13 Dec 13 Jan 14 Feb 14* * As of February 24 47
48 Prudential accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in order to lower exposure to financial dollarization risks 32 International Reserves* (as percentage of GDP) Peru Brazil Chile Mexico Colombia * Information as of December Source: Central banks and IMF World Economic Outlook
49 Inflation rate fell to 2,86 percent in December YoY % Chg. December 2013: Inflation: 2,86% Inflation expectations (Nov): 2,7% INFLATION AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS (YoY % Change) Inflation Inflation expectations Maximum Inflation target Minimum -1-2 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09 dec-10 dec-11 dec-12 dec-13 49
50 Inflation expectations are below 3 percent for 2014 and 2015 MACROECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS SURVEY END OF PERIOD INFLATION RATE (in percentage) Expectations from Sep. 13 IR* Dec. 13 IR* Jan. 14 Financial System ,5 2,6 2, ,5 2,6 2,5 Economic Analysts ,5 2,6 2, ,4 2,5 2,6 Non-financial Sector ,0 3,0 2, ,0 3,0 3,0 * IR: Inflation Report 50
51 Inflation is expected to stay in the inflation target range throughout Inflation forecast, (annual percentage change)
52 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments and prospects 3. Monetary Policy Framework 4. Closing remarks 52
53 Closing Remarks End of cyclical desceleration and beginning of economic recovery in the global economy. Despite uncertainty about the speed of the tapering process, this occurs amidst a gradual recovery of the American economy. Peru s good economic position among emerging economies due to strong macroeconomic fundamentals and fast reaction ability. Opportunity to move forward through an agenda of structural reforms to boost potential output growth. 53
54 Peru s fundamentals and economic perspectives Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2014
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