Cosa ci riserva il 2008?

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Cosa ci riserva il 2008?"

Transcription

1 Cosa ci riserva il 28? Scenari e previsioni per l anno in corso Keith Wade Capo Economista

2 The US economy today A re-assessment of risk De-leveraging Financial sector Real economy Historical precedents not encouraging how do we get down?

3 International rescue The A-team Team leader We must do all that is necessary Aide 1 Is this the biggest problem? Aide 2 They got themselves into this mess

4 International rescue Conditions for success i.e. avoiding a Japan style slump Speed and scale of response Size and nature of the problem Risks Mitigating factors A white knight?

5 Chances of success the scale of the crisis Large in absolute terms, less threatening as share of GDP Billions USD$ % US Savings and loan ( ) Japan banking crisis (199-99) Asia banking crisisus Subprime crisis ( ) (27 - present) Bank losses Other financials Percent of GDP, rhs Source: World Bank, IMF staff estimate All costs are real 27 dollars. Asia includes Indonesia, Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand

6 The nature of the problem the transmission mechanism is blocked Surveys show banks are tightening credit US C&I loan surveys corporates Net % US Household loan survey - mortgages Net % Net % US Real estate Large & medium firms Small firms All Subprime Prime Commercial real estate loans Source: US Federal Reserve senior loan officer survey, Thomson Datastream

7 The transmission mechanism is blocked The Fed is getting less bang for its buck Interbank spreads Impact of 1bps Fed easing on mortgage rates % bps 1,2 1,,8,6,4,2, -,2 -,4 -,6 apr7 lug7 ott7 gen8 apr8 US (3M Interbank over Feds funds target rate) Euro area (3M interbank rate over ECB repo rate UK (3M Interbank rate over UK base rate) Source: Thomson Datastream Current cycle based on the period from 17/9/7 to 7/4/ year 1-year treasury ARM Current cycle (Freddie 2-3 cycle MAC) cycle cycle Average last 3 cycles 3-year fixed rate mortage

8 Risk factors 1 the scale of imbalances US faces significant funding gap and house price adjustment US current account deficit USD billions US annual current account balance US house price-income ratio Pre-bubble average Net private inflows Median price/ income Source: Thomson Datastream

9 Risk factors 2 the response from inflation Food and oil drive a wedge between headline and core inflation rates % Gap, % G7 Headline CPI, y/y% G7 core CPI, y/y% Source: Thomson Datastream

10 Risk factors 2 the response from inflation Sub-trend growth should deliver lower core inflation % % Growth above 3% Inflation rising Growth below 3% Inflation falling Core CPI, 12 month change of y/y% US GDP, y/y%, 4 quarter lag, rhs Baseline forecast Source: Thomson Datastream, Schroders

11 Positives - strength of global economy A more balanced world - contribution to 27 global GDP growth % EM ex China Eurozone China US Japan UK. EM ex China: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, South Africa, Russia, Czech Rep., Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine Source: Consensus Economics

12 World GDP growth: slowdown? What slowdown? Emerging Markets now account for half global growth y/y% 5 4 Asia crisis Last US recession Baseline forecasts Growth contribution from emerging markets Growth contribution from the OECD countries Source: IMF, Consensus Economics, Schroders

13 Sovereign Wealth Funds the white knight? Commodity prices and the global savings glut fuel the Sovereign Wealth Funds China s FX reserves USD Billion Country Name Source of funds United Arab Emirates Singapore Norway Kuwait Abu Dhabi Investment Authority Government of Singapore Investment Corporation Government Pension Fund - global Kuwait Investment Authority Current size US$bn Natural resources FX reserves/ fiscal surplus Natural resources 329 Natural resources 213 Russia Stabilisation Fund Natural resources 148 China Central Investment Company FX reserves 68 Source: Thomson Datastream, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Nov. 7

14 International rescue Will they succeed? Speed and scale of response + Size and nature of crisis Risks: global imbalances and inflation Mitigating factors : strength of EM + A white knight?: SWF s + Increases/ decreases probability of success + / On balance success is achievable but do not rule out Plan B

15 Market view

16 In past cycles, Fed rate cuts have lasted three or four years This suggests US monetary policy will be easing, or easy until 21 Fed funds target rate % Themes Persistent weakness in USD Loose monetary policy in Emerging markets Risk of overheating/ EM currency appreciation Continued flows into commodities Inflation: core v headline tussle The return of fiscal activism Current cycle Jan June Chart shows interest rates from previous cycles pushed forward such that each easing cycle begins at the same point in 27 Source: Thomson Datastream, Schroders

17 Valuation: Equities are looking attractive Markets trading at bottom of PE range Trailing PE MSCI World (vs. 2 year historical average) Trend PE MSCI World (vs. 2 year historical average) Average +/- s.d. Average +/- s.d. Source: Thomson Datastream, Schroders as at Mar 28

18 Valuations attractive, interest rates falling buy equities? The economic cycle says otherwise Market performance varies through the economic cycle Asset performance by stage of the cycle Phase/ Asset Statistics Recovery Expansion Slowdown Recession Slowdown Recession Recovery Expansion Equity Excess return* Volatility 8.6 (1%) (83%) (22%) 9.9 (88%) Cash Equity/ Bonds Equity Equity Buy List Asset class: Bond market: Equity market: Size: Style: Sector: Alternatives: Cash Governments US equity Large cap equity Growth/ Quality Energy/ Staples/ Utilities Infrastructure Oil Gold Source: Thomson Datastream, Global Financial Data, Schroders. Data period Jan 195 to February 28 * All risk return figures are in % and annualised from monthly data. Equity, bond & commodity risk return numbers are relative to cash The figures in brackets refer to number of times the equity markets outperformed cash on average during each phase of the cycle since 195 Valuations and rate cuts do not help equities in the slowdown phase

19 Are we there yet? Equity market performance over cash in the slowdown Performance index of the slowdown phase Cumulative performance of the average slowdown phase Average length Cumulative performance of the current slowdown phase Subsequent months into the slowdown phase Data: S&P 5 TR & 3M T-Bill TR index since 195 Source: Thomson Datastream, Global Financial Data, Schroders

20 Where next? The recession phase will bring a rotation toward greater risk Slowdown Recession Recovery Expansion Cash Equity/ Bonds Equity Equity Buy List Asset class: Equity market: Size: Sector: Bond market: Alternatives: Equity/ Bonds Emerging markets Small cap Financials/ IT/ Consumer High Yield Convertible bonds Oil The equity market and risk assets turn ahead of the economy Source: Thomson Datastream, Global Financial Data, Schroders * All risk return figures are in % and annualised from monthly data. Equity, bond & commodity risk return numbers are relative to cash The figures in brackets refer to number of times the equity markets outperformed cash on average during each phase of the cycle since 195

21 Macro and market view Financial crisis now rolling over into real economy : growth weak as consumer de-leverages Challenging environment for monetary policy : high risk of liquidity trap (Japan 199s) Speed of response, strength of world economy and SWF s tip balance of risks in favour of recovery Expect long period of loose money and loose fiscal policy, do not rule out Plan B. While problem in OECD is growth, that in Emerging Markets is inflation Fed policy will exacerbate pressures in EM and commodity markets Underweight risk assets : valuation provides little defence in slowdown Return to equities when the Fed gets ahead of the curve Equities trough ahead of the economy (outperform after the slowdown phase) Economic stability needed to bring visibility on earnings Valuations attractive v. history, cash and bonds

22 Important Information This material may only be issued to or directed at persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2 (Financial Promotion) Order 21 and the rules of the Financial Services Authority ("FSA"), including entities or persons who are authorised by the FSA, or qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the FSA's rules. Certain investments or services to which this material relates may only be available to such persons. This material must not be relied upon or acted upon by any other persons in the United Kingdom. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. You should remember that the value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed, and investors may not get back the money originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of the overseas investments to rise or fall. Potential investors should be aware that investment in emerging markets, derivatives or hedge funds involves a high degree of risk and should be regarded as a long-term investment. Downside protection is not guaranteed. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Potential counterparties are advised to independently review and/or obtain independent professional advice and draw their own conclusions regarding the economic benefit and risks of investment, legal, regulatory, credit, tax and accounting aspects in relation to their particular circumstances. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroder & Co. Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgement at the time of issue and are subject to change without notice. Information is sourced from Schroders unless otherwise stated. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that Schroder & Co Limited has to its customers under the Financial Services Act or any other regulatory system. Schroder & Co. Ltd is authorised by the Financial Services Authority to administer, advise on, arrange (bring about) and enter into a regulated mortgage contract. Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage. For purposes of the Data Protection Act 1998, the data controller in respect of any personal data you supply is Schroder & Co. Limited. Personal information you supply may be processed for the purposes of investment administration by the Schroders Group which may include the transfer of data outside of the European Economic Area. Schroder & Co. Limited may also use such information for marketing activities unless you notify it otherwise in writing. Schroder & Co. Limited 1 Wood Street, London EC2V 7ER Telephone: Fax: Issued and approved by Schroder & Co. Limited who are authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. For your security, communications may be taped or monitored.

Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class

Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to

More information

Financial stability risks: old and new

Financial stability risks: old and new Financial stability risks: old and new Hyun Song Shin* Bank for International Settlements 4 December 2014 Brookings Institution Washington DC *Views expressed here are mine, not necessarily those of the

More information

Capital Flows to Emerging Markets - The Perspective from the IIF

Capital Flows to Emerging Markets - The Perspective from the IIF Capital Flows to Emerging Markets - The Perspective from the IIF Felix Huefner Global Macroeconomic Analysis Department Institute of International Finance 1 st Meeting of the COMCEC Financial Cooperation

More information

Global Emerging Markets. Outlook March 2006

Global Emerging Markets. Outlook March 2006 Global Emerging Markets Outlook Market Performance from 31.12.1998 to 31.01.2006 360 310 260 210 160 110 60 98 Jun-99 99 Jun-00 00 Jun-01 01 Jun-02 02 Jun-03 03 Jun-04 04 Jun-05 05 MSCI World MSCI EM S&P500

More information

3rd Research Conference Towards Recovery and Sustainable Growth in the Altered Global Environment

3rd Research Conference Towards Recovery and Sustainable Growth in the Altered Global Environment 3rd Research Conference Towards Recovery and Sustainable Growth in the Altered Global Environment Erdem Başçı Governor 28-29 April 214, Skopje Overview: Inflation and Monetary Policy Retail loan growth

More information

Latin America Equities

Latin America Equities Latin America Equities March 2013 Stephen Burrows, Senior Investment Manager Emerging Markets - Pictet Asset Management Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12

More information

All the BRICs dampening world trade in 2015

All the BRICs dampening world trade in 2015 Aug Weekly Economic Briefing Emerging Markets All the BRICs dampening world trade in World trade in has been hit by an unexpectedly sharp drag from the very largest emerging economies. The weakness in

More information

Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates

Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates Kathy Bostjancic Head of US Macro Investor Services kathybostjancic@oxfordeconomics.com April 2016 Oxford Economics forecast highlights

More information

San Francisco Retiree Health Care Trust Fund Education Materials on Public Equity

San Francisco Retiree Health Care Trust Fund Education Materials on Public Equity M E K E T A I N V E S T M E N T G R O U P 5796 ARMADA DRIVE SUITE 110 CARLSBAD CA 92008 760 795 3450 fax 760 795 3445 www.meketagroup.com The Global Equity Opportunity Set MSCI All Country World 1 Index

More information

What is driving US Treasury yields higher?

What is driving US Treasury yields higher? What is driving Treasury yields higher? " our programme for reducing our [Fed's] balance sheet, which began in October, is proceeding smoothly. Barring a very significant and unexpected weakening in the

More information

International Monetary Fund

International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF April 212 Towards Lasting Stability Global Economy Pulled Back from the Brink Policies Stepped

More information

Challenges to the International Monetary System: Rebalancing Currencies, Institutions, and Rates

Challenges to the International Monetary System: Rebalancing Currencies, Institutions, and Rates Challenges to the International Monetary System: Rebalancing Currencies, Institutions, and Rates Takatoshi Kato Deputy Managing Director International Monetary Fund September 3, 27 1 9 Growth has been

More information

GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK

GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Max Darnell, Managing Partner, Chief Investment Officer All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. performance is no

More information

Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Chart Collection for Morning Briefing Chart Collection for Morning Briefing February 12, 219 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box 25 Figure

More information

Financial wealth of private households worldwide

Financial wealth of private households worldwide Economic Research Financial wealth of private households worldwide Munich, October 217 Recovery in turbulent times Assets and liabilities of private households worldwide in EUR trillion and annualrate

More information

Emerging market equities

Emerging market equities November 22, 2010 Emerging market equities Jean-Pierre Talon, FSA, FICA Introduction Focus of this presentation is to set out the rationale for a strategic bias toward emerging market equities Consider

More information

Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability

Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2016 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments

More information

Rebalancing International Equities: What to Know. What to Consider.

Rebalancing International Equities: What to Know. What to Consider. Success Should Not Be Cyclical Perspective Rebalancing International Equities: What to Know. What to Consider. Executive Summary Diversified investors may be frustrated by the underperformance of their

More information

Global Economic Prospects

Global Economic Prospects Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally

More information

Tracking the Growth Catalysts in Emerging Markets

Tracking the Growth Catalysts in Emerging Markets Tracking the Growth Catalysts in Emerging Markets September 14, 2016 by Nick Niziolek of Calamos Investments The following is an excerpt of remarks made on August 30, 2016. The majority of the improved

More information

Market Briefing: Daily Markets Overview

Market Briefing: Daily Markets Overview Market Briefing: Daily Markets Overview April 3, 18 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-536 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table Of Contents

More information

Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Chart Collection for Morning Briefing Chart Collection for Morning Briefing February 7, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni 1-97-73 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana --1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box 3 3 Figure 1. S&P

More information

Market Briefing: Daily Markets Overview

Market Briefing: Daily Markets Overview Market Briefing: Daily Markets Overview September 25, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-536 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box Table Of Contents

More information

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES. Bank of Russia.

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES. Bank of Russia. RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES Bank of Russia July 218 < -1% -1-9% -9-8% -8-7% -7-6% -6-5% -5-4% -4-3% -3-2% -2-1% -1 % 1% 1 2% 2 3% 3 4% 4 5% 5 6% 6 7% 7 8% 8 9% 9 1% 1 11% 11

More information

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing 1 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Forecasts eased down again as trade remains sluggish We have cut our forecast for China again following weak growth in Q1. We now expect the

More information

The Asia Pacific Fund, Inc.

The Asia Pacific Fund, Inc. Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited 19th Floor Edinburgh Tower 15 Queen s Road Central Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2841 1411 Fax: (852) 2868 411 The Asia Pacific Fund, Inc. Investment Outlook & Strategy www.asiapacificfund.com

More information

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing The risks of renewed capital flight from emerging markets Recent episodes of capital flight from emerging markets have highlighted the vulnerability of a number

More information

Economic Outlook. Macro Research Itaú Unibanco

Economic Outlook. Macro Research Itaú Unibanco Economic Outlook Macro Research Itaú Unibanco June, 2013 Agenda Economia Global Heterogeneous growth: U.S. growing faster, Europe in recession. Deceleration in the emerging economies. The Fed signals a

More information

2016 Investment Outlook: Crosscurrents

2016 Investment Outlook: Crosscurrents 216 Investment Outlook: Crosscurrents January 13, 216 MODERATED BY: Celia Dallas Chief Investment Strategist Wade O Brien Managing Director, Global Investment Research Christopher Hunter Managing Director,

More information

Credit, Commodities, and Consumers: An Economic Update

Credit, Commodities, and Consumers: An Economic Update Credit, Commodities, and Consumers: An Economic Update ROBIN J. ANDERSON, Ph.D. SENIOR ECONOMIST PRINCIPAL GLOBAL INVESTORS June 2015 All expressions of opinion and predictions in this report are subject

More information

Market Briefing: Daily Markets Overview

Market Briefing: Daily Markets Overview Market Briefing: Daily Markets Overview ruary, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-36 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table Of Contents

More information

Market Briefing: US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World

Market Briefing: US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World Market Briefing: US MSCI Stock Price Index vs Rest of the World January 29, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni 51-972-73 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-97-530 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 0--1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites

More information

APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES

APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES 16 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index EMERGING ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China Industrial

More information

INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN

INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 12, 2014 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan

More information

Capital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD

Capital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD Capital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD Emerging Capital Markets Update for August 2011 All data are as of Wednesday, August 31, 2011. The regional indices are

More information

International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF

International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF IMF Presentation April 3, The recovery is solidifying but it will take some time before it significantly

More information

Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers

Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking

More information

Financial markets in an interconnected world

Financial markets in an interconnected world Financial markets in an interconnected world Hyun Song Shin* Bank for International Settlements CFS Colloquium Seminar, Goethe University 23 March 2015 * Views expressed are my own, not necessarily those

More information

Mexico: 2016 IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION

Mexico: 2016 IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION Mexico: 2016 IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION Wilson Center, January 9, 2017 Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund BACKGROUND Growth in Economic Activity and Employment Have Remained Stable

More information

Quarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2017

Quarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2017 Quarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2017 Market Update: A Quarter in Review March 31, 2017 CANADIAN STOCKS INTERNATIONAL STOCKS Large Cap Small Cap Growth Value Large Cap Small Cap Growth Value Emerging

More information

Risultati Olimpici per gli investimenti obbligazionari. Nicholas Gartside Gestore Investimenti Obbligazionari

Risultati Olimpici per gli investimenti obbligazionari. Nicholas Gartside Gestore Investimenti Obbligazionari Risultati Olimpici per gli investimenti obbligazionari Nicholas Gartside Gestore Investimenti Obbligazionari Stagflation What does it look like? UK growth and inflation % % 8 25 6 4 2-2 -4 Trend growth

More information

The External Environment for Developing Countries

The External Environment for Developing Countries d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group

More information

Market Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar

Market Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar Market Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar March 11, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-536 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog.

More information

Monetary Policy Stance amid the Risk of Uneven Global Growth and External Imbalance

Monetary Policy Stance amid the Risk of Uneven Global Growth and External Imbalance Monetary Policy Stance amid the Risk of Uneven Global Growth and External Imbalance Agus D.W. Martowardojo Governor Bank Indonesia Prepared for Mandiri Investment Forum, January 27, 2015 2 1 Global Economic

More information

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Divergence in emergers monetary policy This year economic activity across the emergers has been subdued but inflation has generally remained moderate, allowing

More information

M&G Emerging Markets Bond Fund Claudia Calich, Fund Manager. November 2015

M&G Emerging Markets Bond Fund Claudia Calich, Fund Manager. November 2015 M&G Emerging Markets Bond Fund Claudia Calich, Fund Manager November 2015 Agenda Macro update & government bonds Emerging market corporate bonds Fund positioning Emerging markets risks today Risks Slowing

More information

Capital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD

Capital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD Capital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD Emerging Capital Markets Update for July 2011 All data are as of Friday, July 29, 2011. The regional indices are based

More information

Forecasting Emerging Markets Equities the Role of Commodity Beta

Forecasting Emerging Markets Equities the Role of Commodity Beta Forecasting Emerging Markets Equities the Role of Commodity Beta Huiyu(Evelyn) Huang Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo& Co., LLC June 23, 215 For presentation at ISF 215. The opinions expressed here are solely

More information

FINANCIAL FORECASTS ECONOMIC RESEARCH. January No. 1. What will be the characteristics of euro-zone financial markets in 2016?

FINANCIAL FORECASTS ECONOMIC RESEARCH. January No. 1. What will be the characteristics of euro-zone financial markets in 2016? ECONOMIC RESEARCH January - No. What will be the characteristics of euro-zone financial markets in? We believe investors will be faced with the following characteristics in euro-zone financial markets

More information

Global Investment Outlook Russ Koesterich, CFA Managing Director, Global Allocation

Global Investment Outlook Russ Koesterich, CFA Managing Director, Global Allocation Global Investment Outlook Russ Koesterich, CFA Managing Director, Global Allocation 6 Asset performance YTD Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, BlackRock Investment Institute. Apr, 6 Note: Total return

More information

National Monetary Policy Forum. Chris Loewald, Head: Policy Development and Research 10 April 2016 Pretoria

National Monetary Policy Forum. Chris Loewald, Head: Policy Development and Research 10 April 2016 Pretoria National Monetary Policy Forum Chris Loewald, Head: Policy Development and Research 1 April 1 Pretoria In the April 17 MPR Executive summary & overview of the policy stance Overview of the world economy

More information

NORTH AMERICAN UPDATE

NORTH AMERICAN UPDATE NORTH AMERICAN UPDATE December 6 th, 2018 INNOVATION INSIGHT GROWTH SINCE 1968 TOUGH YEAR FOR RETURNS AROUND THE WORLD Index Year-to-date Performance MSCI World -1.2% MSCI USA 3.9% MSCI Canada -3.9% MSCI

More information

Planning Global Compensation Budgets for 2018 November 2017 Update

Planning Global Compensation Budgets for 2018 November 2017 Update Planning Global Compensation Budgets for 2018 November 2017 Update Planning Global Compensation Budgets for 2018 The year is rapidly coming to a close, and we are now in the midst of 2018 global compensation

More information

Risks and Opportunities in Global Equities Today BCI Global Investment Conference Tom Mann, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager

Risks and Opportunities in Global Equities Today BCI Global Investment Conference Tom Mann, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager Risks and Opportunities in Global Equities Today BCI Global Investment Conference Tom Mann, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager June 2017 For professional investors only. Not suitable for retail clients 05/06/2017

More information

Market volatility to continue

Market volatility to continue How much more? Renewed speculation that financial institutions may report increased US subprime-related losses has sent equity markets tumbling. How much more bad news can investors expect going forward?

More information

Learning objectives. Investors should leave the presentation with an ability to discuss

Learning objectives. Investors should leave the presentation with an ability to discuss Learning objectives Investors should leave the presentation with an ability to discuss the fundamentals and valuations of emerging markets economies in 2018 the key risks of emerging market debt in 2018

More information

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Global scenarios Slower growth in emerging markets is a key risk to our central forecast for the global economy. While more positive signs have recently appeared

More information

Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Chart Collection for Morning Briefing Chart Collection for Morning Briefing March 22, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Figure 1.

More information

World real GDP growth in 2010 Annual percent change

World real GDP growth in 2010 Annual percent change World real GDP growth in 20 Annual percent change % or more 6-% 3-6% 0-3% Less than 0% No data Source: International Monetary Fund. World real GDP growth in 2011 Annual percent change % or more 6-% 3-6%

More information

Economic Forecast 2018

Economic Forecast 2018 Economic Forecast 2018 Economic Outlook 2018 Featured Speaker: Daniel Morgan Senior Portfolio Manager This report has been prepared from sources and data believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to

More information

Global Economic Indictors: CRB Raw Industrials & Global Economy

Global Economic Indictors: CRB Raw Industrials & Global Economy Global Economic Indictors: & Global Economy December 14, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

More information

Jörg Decressin Deputy Director

Jörg Decressin Deputy Director World Economic Outlook October 13 Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF 1 Outline Prospects for Advanced Economies Recent Developments and Implications for Emerging Economies Medium-term

More information

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27

More information

Seven-year asset class forecast returns

Seven-year asset class forecast returns For professional investors and advisers only. Seven-year asset class forecast returns 2017 Update Seven-year asset class forecast returns 2017 update Introduction Our seven-year returns forecast largely

More information

Weekly Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary November 18, 2014 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging Burt White Chief Investment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist

More information

Challenges for financial institutions today. Summary

Challenges for financial institutions today. Summary 7 February 6 Challenges for financial institutions today Notes for remarks by Malcolm D Knight, General Manager of the BIS, at a European Financial Services Roundtable meeting, Zurich, 7 February 6 Summary

More information

Global Emerging Markets

Global Emerging Markets Global Emerging Markets The Second Generation Oliver Bell Head Emerging Markets Specialist Equities 11 November 2008 Why emerging markets? EMERGING ECONOMIES AND DEVELOPED MARKETS AS, % OF THE WORLD 0

More information

CBIA and the Metro Hartford Alliance Economic Summit & Outlook 2013 Recent Developments in the US Economy

CBIA and the Metro Hartford Alliance Economic Summit & Outlook 2013 Recent Developments in the US Economy CBIA and the Metro Hartford Alliance Economic Summit & Outlook 213 Recent Developments in the US Economy Christine Cumming, First Vice President January 4, 213 Disclaimer The views expressed are the presenter

More information

Market Correlations: CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index

Market Correlations: CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index Market Correlations: Spot Price Index December 15, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www.

More information

Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy

Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy Stock Market Briefing: S&P Revenues & the Economy December 21, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-36 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at

More information

Why Invest In Emerging Markets? Why Now?

Why Invest In Emerging Markets? Why Now? Why Invest In Emerging Markets? Why Now? 2018 Over the long term, Emerging Markets (EM) have been a winning alternative compared to traditional Developed Markets (DM)... 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 1998

More information

DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Quarterly Performance Report Q2 2014

DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Quarterly Performance Report Q2 2014 DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Quarterly Performance Report Q2 2014 This presentation has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ), manager of the Dimensional Funds.

More information

Market Briefing: News Events & Key Markets

Market Briefing: News Events & Key Markets Market Briefing: News Events & Key Markets August 5, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at

More information

Freedom Quarterly Market Commentary // 2Q 2018

Freedom Quarterly Market Commentary // 2Q 2018 ASSET MANAGEMENT SERVICES Freedom Quarterly Market Commentary // 2Q 2018 SECOND QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS U.S. economic growth and earnings lead the world The value of the dollar rises, affecting currency exchange

More information

Why Invest In Emerging Markets? Why Now?

Why Invest In Emerging Markets? Why Now? Why Invest In Emerging Markets? Why Now? 2017 Over the long term, Emerging Markets (EM) have been a winning alternative compared to traditional Developed Markets (DM)... 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 1997

More information

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS 2017 was an excellent year for international equities, particularly EM. We favor the United States and EM equities for tactical global asset allocations

More information

THOUGHTS FOR 2018 DECEMBER 2017

THOUGHTS FOR 2018 DECEMBER 2017 FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY. NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. PLEASE REFER TO ALL RISK DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS DOCUMENT. THOUGHTS FOR 218 DECEMBER 217 > After years of sustained

More information

Global Equities. Q&A roadshow #QAroadshow2016. Gavin Marriott Product Manager

Global Equities. Q&A roadshow #QAroadshow2016. Gavin Marriott Product Manager Global Equities Q&A roadshow 216 #QAroadshow216 Gavin Marriott Product Manager June 216 For professional advisers only. This material is not suitable for retail clients Questions What will drive global

More information

Emerging Markets Small-Cap

Emerging Markets Small-Cap Emerging Markets Small-Cap October 2017 THIS MATERIAL IS FOR USE OF PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY, EXCEPT IN THE U.S. WHERE THE MATERIAL IS FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY AND MAY NOT BE USED WITH THE

More information

The use of reserve requirements as a policy instrument in Latin America Carlos Montoro VII Meeting of Central Bank Monetary Policy Managers CEMLA

The use of reserve requirements as a policy instrument in Latin America Carlos Montoro VII Meeting of Central Bank Monetary Policy Managers CEMLA The use of reserve requirements as a policy instrument in Latin America Carlos Montoro VII Meeting of Central Bank Monetary Policy Managers CEMLA Rio de Janeiro Brazil, 7-8 April, 2011. 1 The use of reserve

More information

All-Country Equity Allocator February 2018

All-Country Equity Allocator February 2018 Leila Heckman, Ph.D. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6261 John Mullin, Ph.D. jmullin@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6262 Charles Waters cwaters@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6264 All-Country Equity Allocator February

More information

Emerging Markets Outlook

Emerging Markets Outlook Mark Mobius, Ph.D. Executive Chairman Templeton Emerging Markets Group Emerging Markets Outlook Dealer Use Only / Not for Distribution to the Public Agenda Performance Emerging Markets Equities: Demand

More information

Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook The Institute of Strategic and International Studies Kuala Lumpur, November 2012 Mangal Goswami Mangal Goswami Deputy Director IMF Singapore Regional Training Institute Action Needed

More information

The Disconnect Continues

The Disconnect Continues The Disconnect Continues Richard Bernstein June 3, 2011 Our strategies focus on finding disconnects between investor sentiment and the reality of improvement or deterioration in fundamentals. The current

More information

DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q3 2015

DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q3 2015 DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q3 2015 This presentation has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ), manager of the Dimensional Funds. This presentation

More information

DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q2 2017

DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q2 2017 DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q2 2017 This presentation has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ), manager of the Dimensional Funds. This presentation

More information

DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q3 2018

DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q3 2018 DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q3 2018 This presentation has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ), manager of the Dimensional Funds. This presentation

More information

DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q4 2017

DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q4 2017 DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Performance Report Q4 2017 This presentation has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ), manager of the Dimensional Funds. This presentation

More information

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing 21 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Recession looms for some emerging economies Several major emerging economies struggling with domestically-induced problems are now in, or flirting

More information

Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War

Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 2 2018 on 3 April 2018 Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War Investment Outlook for 2 nd Quarter 2018 Equity Thailand U.S. Europe Japan Asia Bond Thailand

More information

Peru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru. September 2015

Peru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru. September 2015 Peru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru September 2015 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments and prospects

More information

A Country Picker's Market

A Country Picker's Market A Country Picker's Market February 12, 2018 by Christopher Dhanraj of ishares It s a country picker s market. The most synchronized global economy in a decade comes with an unusual counterpart: the most

More information

B-GUIDE: Market Outlook

B-GUIDE: Market Outlook Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 1 2018 on 5 th January 2018 Investment Outlook for 1 st Quarter 2018 Accelerating Global Economy Supports the Rising Earnings Equity Thailand US Europe Japan Asia Bond

More information

Market Briefing: Gold

Market Briefing: Gold Market Briefing: Gold January 3, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table Of Contents Table

More information

The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to EMEs

The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to EMEs The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to EMEs Tatjana Dahlhaus Garima Vasishtha Bank of Canada 13th Research Meeting of NIPFP-DEA Research Program March 6, 215 Introduction

More information

Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents

Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors

More information

A Global Economic and Market Outlook

A Global Economic and Market Outlook A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

More information

Emerging Fixed Income A New Dawn. Simon Lue-Fong March 2007 I Lima

Emerging Fixed Income A New Dawn. Simon Lue-Fong March 2007 I Lima Emerging Fixed Income A New Dawn Simon Lue-Fong March 2007 I Lima Table of contents 1. The Changing Landscape Emerging USD Bonds have had a spectacular ride But where next? EMERGING USD BOND SPREADS SINCE

More information

Latin America in Today s Global Economy

Latin America in Today s Global Economy Latin America in Today s Global Economy June 17, 2008 Lima, Peru Gustavo Cañonero Managing Director Head of Emerging Markets Economic Research Deutsche Bank Gustavo.Canonero@db.com Agenda I. LA and the

More information

P R E S E N T S. U.S. Economic Outlook Virtuous Growth

P R E S E N T S. U.S. Economic Outlook Virtuous Growth P R E S E N T S U.S. Economic Outlook Virtuous Growth December 2013 Presenter Robin Wehbé, CFA, CMT Director (617) 722-3965 Robin is the Lead Portfolio Manager on the Global Natural Resources Long/Short

More information