Latin America Equities
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1 Latin America Equities March 2013 Stephen Burrows, Senior Investment Manager Emerging Markets - Pictet Asset Management
2 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Leading indicators of economic growth Economic activity is recovering in China, the trend is yet to be confirmed in LATAM China leading indicator M/M growth Latin America leading indicator M/M growth 2.0 %m/m %m/m Latin America leading indicator average Leading index growth -0.2 average (since 99) Source:. CEIC, Datastream 2
3 Pakistan Egypt Croatia Israel Ukraine Hungary Venezuela Turkey Brazil South Africa Philippines Mexico Poland Hong Kong Russia Chile Taiwan Colombia Argentina Malaysia Bulgaria Singapore Thailand Czech Republic Peru Romania Korea India Indonesia Vietnam China Private investment share of GDP Lower trend growth in Brazil due to relatively low levels of private investment Private investment to GDP ratio %GDP Total Investment Unweighted EMaverage Unweighted developed average Source:. CEIC, Datastream 3
4 China Singapore Croatia Malaysia Czech Republic Hungary Russia Korea Thailand Venezuela Indonesia India Argentina Turkey Taiwan Israel Chile Egypt South Africa Brazil Romania Poland Peru Hong Kong Colombia Mexico Vietnam Bulgaria Philippines Ukraine Pakistan Consumption share of GDP The contribution of private consumption to GDP is significantly higher in LATAM compared to China, but the gap will narrow Private consumption to GDP ratio 90 %GDP Private Consumption Unweighted EMaverage Unweighted developed average Source:. CEIC, Datastream 4
5 Argentina Venezuela Mexico Peru Pakistan Philippines Indonesia Egypt Colombia Romania Russia Turkey India Brazil Poland Czech Republic Ukraine Hungary Bulgaria Chile Croatia South Africa Israel Korea Thailand Singapore Vietnam Malaysia China Taiwan Hong Kong Latin America remains at an early stage in the credit cycle Private domestic credit as a % of GDP: Private domestic credit (% GDP) %GDP Latin America: 38% EM Markets: 64% Private domestic credit average Developed Markets: 225% Source: 5
6 Latin American equities have a relatively large exposure to the consumption theme Weight of consumer staples within MSCI equity indices*: EM real retail sales by region = January 2000 Latin America: 18.5% EM Markets: 8.8% China: 5.5% Asia Latin America EMEA Source:. CEIC, Datastream, * as at
7 but the consumer sector is expensive P/Book Value: MSCI Sector as at 01/02/ x 1.0x 2.0x 3.0x 4.0x 5.0x 6.0x Cons Disc Cons Stap Energy Financials Health Care Industrials IT Materials Max/ 5Y Avg. /Min Current P/Book Telecoms Utilities Source: IBES, MSCI, Facset, Morgan Stanley Research, 7
8 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 particularly when compared to cyclical industries Median Pictet value of GEM beverage sector/median Pictet value of GEM steel sector Source: PAM EM database, 31 st January
9 Sep-95 Sep-96 Sep-97 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 30/09/95 30/09/96 30/09/97 30/09/98 30/09/99 30/09/00 30/09/01 30/09/02 30/09/03 30/09/04 30/09/05 30/09/06 30/09/07 30/09/08 30/09/09 30/09/10 30/09/11 30/09/12 Latin American equity valuations Latin American equity valuations are fairly valued relative to history but expensive compared to emerging markets P/Book: MSCI Latin America relative to MSCI emerging P/Book: MSCI Latin America as at 01/02/2013 markets as at 01/02/ x x x x 1 1.5x x x 0.4 Source: IBES, MSCI, Facset, Morgan Stanley Research 9
10 P/Book ratios country view Brazil and Mexico are at opposite ends of their historic valuation ranges P/Book Value: MSCI Country as at 01/02/2013 EM APxJ China Korea Brazil Taiwan S.Africa India Russia Mexico Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Chile Turkey Poland Colombia Philippines Peru Egypt Czech Hungary Australia Hong Kong Singapore 0.0x 1.0x 2.0x 3.0x 4.0x 5.0x 6.0x 7.0x 8.0x Max/ 5Y Avg. /Min Current P/Book Source: IBES, MSCI, Facset, Morgan Stanley Research, 10
11 Earnings estimates for Latin American equities Earnings forecasts are finally stabilising MSCI Latin America level of eps 2013 and LATAM companies have larger operational leverage than their developed market peers Given the continuous downgrades over two year we could see a very strong EPS turnaround if global demand picks up Feb-11 Feb-12 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research at 31/01/
12 Earnings estimated for the material sector Weight of materials within MSCI equity indices: GEM Materials sector level of EPS estimates 2013 & 2014 Latin America: 20.1% EM Markets: 12.5% China: 4.3% Downgrades continue but price forecasts for commodities have come very close to current spot prices. We believe that a turnaround in forecasts will come soon and could be very strong in this sector Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research at 31/01/ Feb/11 Feb/
13 An increasing number of Latin American companies are paying dividends Percentage of companies in MSCI LATAM & MSCI World that pay a dividend 100,0 90,0 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 98A 99A 00A 01A 02A 03A 04A 05A 06A 07A 08A 09A 10A 11A MSCI DM MSCI Latin America Source::Facset, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets 13
14 Dividend growth Dividend growth in Latin American equities emerging markets has been greater than in other emerging and developed markets over the past ten years. Dividend per share index, re-based to 100 at Dividend sustainability less certain in Brazil AxJ EM DM Latin America Source:Facset, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets 14
15 Inflows in emerging equity funds are at historically high levels Inflows are at levels which have not endured in the past 23 consecutive weeks of inflows into emerging equity funds Cumulative US$64bn of inflows since QE3/ECB monetary stimulus GEM inflows as a percentage of market cap Source: Datastream, EPFR Global, Morgan Stanley 15
16 Conclusions Economic activity is recovering in China but the trend is yet to be confirmed in Latin America Dividend growth has been superior in Latin America but dividend sustainability is less certain in Brazil Value opportunities are available in the material sector and earnings momentum could be close to an inflexion point Our global emerging equity strategy is under weight Latin American equities Valuations in the traditional consumer sectors are challenging, we prefer to play the consumption theme through financials 16
17 Thanks for your attention Stephen Burrows Senior Investment Manager Emerging Markets ( PAM ) definition: In this document, includes all the operating subsidiaries and divisions of the Pictet group that carry out institutional asset management: SA, a Swiss corporation registered with the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA, Limited, a UK company authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, and (Japan) Limited, a Japanese company regulated by the Financial Services Agency of Japan. Disclaimer: This document has been issued in Switzerland by SA and/or Pictet & Cie and in the rest of the world by Limited and may not be reproduced or distributed, either in part or in full, without their prior authorisation. Information used in the preparation of this document is based upon sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of those sources. Any opinion, estimate or forecast may be changed at any time without prior warning. Investors should read the prospectus or offering memorandum before investing in any Pictet managed funds. This document has been issued in Switzerland by SA and/or Pictet & Cie and in the rest of the world by Limited and may not be reproduced or distributed, either in part or in full, without their prior authorisation. Inc. (PAM Inc) is responsible for effecting solicitation in North America to promote the portfolio management services of Limited (PAM Ltd) and Pictet Asset Management SA (PAM SA). PAM Inc, PAM Ltd and PAM SA are affiliated entities ultimately owned by eight individuals, who are also the Partners of Pictet & Cie, Geneva, Switzerland, the flagship entity of the Pictet Group. In Canada PAM Inc is a regulated Investment Adviser authorized to conduct marketing activities on behalf or PAM Ltd and PAM SA. In the USA, PAM Inc's activities are conducted in full compliance with the SEC rules applicable to the marketing of affiliate entities as prescribed in the Adviser Act of 1940 ref. 17CFR (4)-3. SA has not acquired any rights or license to reproduce the trademarks, logos or images set out in this document except that it holds the rights to use any entity of the Pictet group trademarks. The trademarks, logos and images set out in this document are used only for the purpose of this presentation. 17
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