Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing"

Transcription

1 Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Divergence in emergers monetary policy This year economic activity across the emergers has been subdued but inflation has generally remained moderate, allowing many countries to loosen policy. But in some countries policy has been much more constrained and the constraints have grown in recent months. Currencies have generally depreciated, particularly in those countries that rely on external financing to fund a sizeable current account deficit. In several countries this has added to existing inflation pressures. In this article we look at the factors influencing monetary policy choices in the emergers. The policy dilemma in Brazil is particularly stark, with high inflation demanding tighter policy despite a prolonged period of weak economic activity. In Turkey and Indonesia, falling exchange rates are exacerbating existing inflation pressures and policy is already being tightened. In India, until the currency plunged in May we had expected further policy easing but sustained currency weakness and rising inflation have now forced the central bank to tighten monetary conditions. By contrast, some of the major emergers still have scope to ease policy if growth disappoints in H; indeed, we expect Russia to start cutting rates in the coming months. Meanwhile, China has tightened monetary policy modestly in recent months but this action has been prompted by considerations of long-term financial stability (to dampen shadow banking) rather than by any fears of inflation. Emerging Markets: Monetary Policy and Inflation Policy Rate Latest Date Changed Recent cycle Highest Lowest Interest rate Interest rate Direction of latest monetary conditions Inflation month average Currency vs US$ Latest % change over months to 1 Aug China. Dec India 7. May Indonesia. Jul Korea. May-13..? Malaysia 3. May ? Philippines 3. Oct ? Thailand. May ?...7 Brazil. Jul Chile. Jan-..? Mexico. Mar-13..? South Africa. Jul Czech Rep. Nov ** Hungary. Jul ** Poland. Jul ** Russia. Sep ? * Turkey. Apr ** * vs basket, ** vs Euro 1 August 13

2 The policy dilemma is especially awkward in Brazil, so growth will stay low for longer In recent months, the Brazilian central bank has raised the key Selic interest rate to.% as inflation breached the.% upper target in March and has remained high since then. In addition, the currency fell sharply against the US$ in May and June and remains % lower than a year earlier, pressured by the current account deficit widening to over US$bn this year. The weak currency will exacerbate the inflation pressures. And while the authorities would like to see faster growth (after two years of disappointingly sluggish activity), they cannot ignore inflation given the country s hyperinflationary history and the particularly marked impact it has on squeezing real incomes of the poor (which might lead to further bouts of social unrest). As a result, we expect further rate hikes, taking Selic to 9.7% by the end of the year. This should gradually bring inflation under control and support the currency, but it will also mean another year of modest growth. We now expect the Brazilian economy to grow by just.3% in 1. High inflation has also prompted tighter policy in Indonesia By contrast, in Indonesia economic activity has reasonable momentum. In an effort to combat higher inflation expectations triggered by fuel prices rising a third (CPI inflation rose to.% in July after subsidies were cut), Bank Indonesia has increased the key interest rate by 7bp in recent months. Inflation pressures have also been exacerbated by a weakening currency, as the IDR has fallen % over the past twelve months, undermined by the country running a small current account deficit for the first time since the 199s (which has made the economy more vulnerable to swings in global sentiment). In addition to the rises in interest rates, the authorities have intervened very heavily in the foreign exchange market, running down their reserves to limit the fall in the IDR (reserves in July fell to US$9.7bn, down US$bn from end-). On balance we expect the bank to now leave interest rates on hold in the coming months and only tighten further when the global economy is much stronger in mid-1. We forecast that inflation will fall back to % or so next year once the fuel price hike drops out of the annual comparison, while GDP growth should be dampened only modestly by these developments, moderating to a -% pace. Brazil: CPI measures & Selic interest rate CPI ex regulated prices & food & drink Headline CPI Selic interest rate / Oxford Economics Indonesia: Interest rates & CPI inflation % 1 Policy interest rate CPI inflation Source: Bank Indonesia 1 August 13

3 Currency weakness exacerbating inflation risks, forcing reversal in policy in Turkey Turkey s domestic economy gathered momentum in H1 13, sucking in more imports and widening the country s large current account deficit again. But having been one of the favourite destinations for overseas money in the months to early May, sentiment towards Turkey changed quite dramatically when global markets began to worry about the likelihood of QE starting to be reduced in the US. The disruption to Turkey relative to other leading emergers was magnified by a sharp increase in domestic political tensions occurring at the same time. Against this background, the currency has dropped significantly. This has exacerbated inflation pressures, which were already elevated due to surging domestic food prices, and CPI inflation rose to.9% in July. In response to this combination of adverse developments, the central bank has had no choice but to reverse policy and tighten monetary conditions significantly. Although it has not yet raised the main policy interest rate, it has tightened liquidity conditions so that 3- month interbank rates have risen to more than 7.7% from under % in early May (feeding into higher bank lending rates). At the moment we do not anticipate that market interest rates will rise much further, and therefore expect only a comparatively brief period of subdued growth, but renewed global tensions could result in further currency weakness and higher interest rates, with dangerous consequences for the economy. Turkey: Interest rates and inflation % 1 1 Average bank lending rate India: Interest rates and wholesale prices 1 1 Mumbai 3-month offered rate 1 1-week interbank rate Repo rate 9 3 "Core" inflation Wholesale prices (WPI) inflation / Oxford Economics Source: Oxford Economics and also in India, increasing the risks to growth Until the rupee began to slide in May, we had expected the Indian central bank would follow its bp rate cuts in January, March and May with more easing to support activity. But while growth remains disappointingly modest, the currency dropped sharply in May and June, exacerbating already high inflation risks (wholesale price inflation rose to.% in July, while CPI inflation is still close to 1%). The rupee is now 1% lower than a year earlier against the US$, which given the importance of financing the current account deficit (% of GDP last year or over US$9bn) and the impact of rising oil import costs, has altered the central bank s priorities. In July the central bank kept its main official rate (the repo rate) unchanged but raised others (with the consequence that 3-month interbank rates have jumped nearly bp) forced to tighten actual monetary conditions to maintain India s attractiveness as a destination for foreign inflows. But despite this latest development, provided markets stabilise in the coming months we expect the bank will 1 August 13

4 resume its policy of cutting rates to support the real economy in Q 13. But clearly there is a significant risk that the rupee will remain fragile, removing the bank s room for manoeuvre. And if policy remains tighter for longer, our forecast of stronger % GDP growth next year, up from % in 13, may be too optimistic. China: 3-month SHIBOR rate South Africa: Exchange rate % Index v US$ (Dec 3, 1 = 1) depreciation Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan- Jul- Jan-13 Jul-13 China tightened policy modestly mid-year, but for long-term financial stability reasons In China, growth is modest by historical standards and inflation remained moderate at.7% in July. But although the combination of low inflation and more subdued economic activity would seem to justify a continued loose policy, effective monetary conditions have actually tightened in recent months. Having surged to.% in late June, the 3-month SHIBOR rate has subsequently fallen back to.7%, but this is noticeably higher than May s level of 3.9%. But unlike Brazil and India, whose recent monetary policy actions are essentially responses to short-term concerns about inflation and the exchange rate, China s recent policy adjustment reflects the authorities determination to ensure financial stability for the longer term and to ensure that the economy does not become excessively dependent on cheap credit (by clearly indicating that it wants to dampen the expansion of the shadow banking sector). Weak ZAR means that South Africa s central bank is boxed in In South Africa, although growth is weak, inflation is relatively high (just within the target range ceiling), its currency has depreciated the most of all the major emergers over the last months (down almost 1% against the US$) and its current account deficit is set to exceed % of GDP again this year. As a result, the central bank is boxed in it does not want to raise interest rates to support the currency as this might lead to even weaker growth, but nor can it cut interest rates further, as this might spark a completely uncontrolled fall in the currency, which in turn would lead to rapidly accelerating inflation and a sharp erosion of consumers purchasing power. But Hungary and Poland have loosened monetary policy substantially this year By contrast, some emerger central banks have been in a position this year to move more aggressively than expected on interest rates to support their real economies, as inflation has fallen sharply and their exchange rates have not fallen too dramatically. In Hungary, headline CPI inflation has fallen from % at the end of last year to 1.% in July. This, together with a more 1 August 13

5 aggressive policy approach after a change of personnel, has led to the central bank there cutting rates from 7% in August last year to % currently, and we expect another bp of cuts in the next few months. Meanwhile, since November the National Bank of Poland has cut its main policy rate from.7% to.% (headline inflation has dropped from.% in December to.% in June and 1.1% in July). We now expect rates to be left on hold as, after a period of disappointingly weak growth, we anticipate that the policy easing of the past year and the Eurozone moving out of recession will induce a gradual improvement in the real economy; however, should the latter not materialise, then further rate cuts are likely. Central & Eastern Europe: Consumer prices Emerging Europe: Policy interest rates % 1 1 Russia 1 1 Russia 1 1 Hungary Poland Czech Hungary Poland 3 Czech Russia is also expected to cut rates in the coming months to boost activity Economic activity has been disappointing in Russia this year; we are now forecasting GDP growth of.% this year, down from 3.7% expected in January. Moreover, inflation has started to fall in recent months and this disinflationary trend should continue in H due to the strength of this year s harvest (we expect the headline rate to be under % in early 1, down from July s.%). Against this background, we think the stage is set for a concerted monetary easing cycle, with the refinancing rate falling by bp to 7% by end-1. The one factor that may impede this easing is the performance of the rouble, which has slipped over the last year despite relatively firm oil prices. and a number of other emergers have scope to loosen policy if activity disappoints In Korea, Thailand, Chile and Mexico, inflation is moderate and their currencies have not weakened that significantly against the US$ over the last year. In these countries, economic activity was generally quite subdued in H1 13 and we forecast a modest pick-up in H 13. But if the recovery is weaker than anticipated, these countries have room to ease policy. Korea and Thailand cut rates in Q but Mexico is perhaps more likely to cut rates again in H 13 (having cut in March). Mexican CPI inflation eased to 3.% in July, falling within the -% target range for the first time since February and industrial activity and retail sales have stagnated this year. We also think there is a high chance that Chile will cut its policy rate (currently %) in response to low inflation (around %) and the ongoing uncertainty about the health of the global economy, though as domestic demand is fairly robust we only expect one bp cut. 1 August 13

6 Latest data Recent Data Releases Previous month Latest Comment Brazil Retail sales vol. (s. adj.) (Jun) Economic Activity (s. adj) (Jun).% m/m.% y/y -1.% m/m.% y/y.% m/m.% y/y 1.1% m/m 3.% y/y The monthly indicator of economic activity rebounded in June, but in Q as a whole was up just.9%, slower than Q1 s rise of 1.1%. Retail sales also rose on the quarter but only modestly compared with trend of recent years. Russia Exports (Jun) - Imports (Jun) - Trade balance (m total) -.9% y/y -.% y/y $17.7bn (May) 1.% y/y 3.% y/y $17.bn (Jun) The trade surplus may fall faster in H and 1 if domestic demand and imports start to pick up again. India Industrial Output (Jun) Wholesale prices (Jul) Food prices (Jul) Consumer Prices (Jul) Exports (Jul) - Trade balance (m total) -.9% y/y.9% y/y.% y/y 9.9% y/y -.% y/y -$.bn -.% y/y.% y/y 9.% y/y 9.% y/y 11.% y/y -$199.3bn Industrial output fell y/y for a second successive month in June and the outlook remains weak as the July manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest in more than four years. The weaker currency is putting pressure on prices and wholesale prices picked up in July. More encouragingly, exports rose strongly in July. Korea Unemployment (Jul) Employment (Jul) 3.% (seas. adj.) 1.% y/y 3.% 1.% y/y Employment continues to increase at a solid pace suggesting steady growth in services. Mexico Ind. Output (Jun, s. adj.) 1.1% m/m.3% y/y.% m/m -1.% y/y Although overall industry was flat in June, manufacturing did rise on the month but its trend so far this year has been subdued. Turkey Ind. Output (Jun, s. adj.) Current account (m total) -.7% m/m.% y/y -$3.bn (May) 1.% m/m.3% y/y -$3.bn (Jun) Industrial output increased by 1.3% on the quarter in Q despite weaker export volumes, suggesting strengthening domestic demand. The latter has led to a widening current account deficit but fast growth in exports of services is providing some offset. S. Africa Retail sales vol. (Jun, s. adj.).1% m/m.3% y/y.% m/m 3.% y/y Retail sales were up 1% on the quarter in Q. The consumer remains key driver of economy. Singapore GDP (Q, s. adj) Consumer spending (Q) Export Volumes (Q) Fixed Investment (Q).% q/q.1% y/y 1.3% y/y -.1% y/y -.% y/y 3.7% q/q 3.7% y/y.7% y/y 3.1% y/y -3.% y/y The economy rebounded in Q, with both manufacturing and services growing strongly. The Ministry of Trade and Industry upgraded its forecast for GDP growth this year to 3.% from.%. But machinery investment continued to fall significantly, reflecting global uncertainty. Poland GDP (Q, s. adj) Exports (Jun) (EUR).1% q/q.% y/y.1% y/y.% q/q 1.1% y/y 7.1% y/y Some improvement in growth, helped by end to Eurozone recession. Boost from interest rate cuts should lead to faster q/q growth in 1. Czech GDP (Q, seas. adj.) -.% q/q -1.9% y/y.7% q/q -1.% y/y The economy grew in Q for the first time in nearly two years. Hungary GDP (Q, s. adj.).% q/q -.% y/y.1% q/q.% y/y Advance estimates suggest the economy struggled to make any headway in Q. 1 August 13

7 Events Monetary policy meetings in past week Key rate (now) Outcome Comment August 1 th - Indonesia.% (Policy rate) Unchanged Bank Indonesia left the key interest rate on hold as expected but took a number of measures to try to curb credit growth and stop inflation expectations increasing. The bank cut the ceiling on the loan-todeposit ratios of commercial banks to 9% from 1% and said it plans to increase the secondary minimum reserve requirement for rupiah deposits from.% to %. Aug 1th - Chile.% (Policy rate) Unchanged The central bank has not changed interest rates for 19 months now. However, we expect the main policy rate to be cut to.7% next month. With inflation (.% in July) still well below the 3% target and likely to fall below % again later this year (inflation ex food and energy was under 1% in July), the central bank has scope to bolster the economy in the face of a subdued external outlook. Domestic activity remains reasonable so we expect the loosening to be limited to one cut. Aug 9 th - Russia.% (Refinancing rate) Unchanged The central bank left the interest rate on hold, suggesting that it will wait until inflation drops below % before easing rates. Inflation slowed to.% in July and will fall below % within the next few months (influenced by a good harvest). As a result, we think the bank will start lowering rates soon although it will have to keep an eye on the rouble, which has weakened over the last couple of months. For more information contact Clare Howarth (chowarth@oxfordeconomics.com) or Sarah Fowler (sfowler@oxfordeconomics.com) 1 August 13

8 Asia China: Industrial output & retail sales volumes Industrial 1 output Retail sales 3 month moving average Source: CEIC Emerging Markets: Industrial output =1 (seasonally adjusted) Emerging Europe ex Russia (inc. Turkey) East Asia ex China Latin America India 7 1 / Oxford Economics Asia: Manufacturing producer prices 1 Korea: Employment Korea producer prices 3 - China Source: Korea National Statistics Office South East Asia: Real GDP 1 Malaysia 1 Singapore Hong Kong: Components of GDP % quarter Exports of services Indonesia Consumer spending GDP August 13

9 Asia Emergers: Exchange rates v US$ Emergers: Exchange rates v US$ Index (Dec 3, 1 = 1) Index (Dec 3, 1 = 1) 1 11 China appreciation 1 1 Singapore Philippines 1 Korea 1 Malaysia Indonesia appreciation 1 India Thailand 7 9 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan- Jul- Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan- Jul- Jan-13 Jul-13 Emerging Asia: Short-term interest rates % 1 9 India 7 China Korea 3 Thailand India: WPI inflation Non-food manufacturing products (core) Total Food Source: Oxford Economics India: Exports & imports 7 Imports 3 1 Exports month moving average Source: India Ministry of Commerce India: Manufacturing & electricity output (3 month average) Manufacturing 1 1 Electricity Source: Oxford Economics 1 August 13

10 Latin America Brazil: Monthly economic activity indicator % Year-on-year growth 3 month annualised growth Brazil: Industrial output & retail sales volumes 7=1 (seasonally adjusted) Retail sales Industrial output 7 1 Source: IBGE Mexico: Real economy indicators 3=1 (seasonally adjusted) Construction Manufacturing output 1 / Oxford Economics Latin America: Consumer prices Colombia Brazil 1 Mexico Chile Latin America: Trade balance US$ bn Brazil Emergers: Exchange rates v US$ Index (Dec 3,1 = 1) Argentina Chile Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico -1 Mexico month total depreciation 7 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan- Jul- Jan-13 Jul-13 1 August 13

11 Emerging Europe CEE: Real GDP (seasonally adjusted) Central & Eastern Europe: Goods' exports Q1=1 11 Poland 11 3 Czech Poland 1 1 Hungary Czech Germany Romania / Oxford Economics - 3 month moving average (in EUR terms) Slovak Russia: Industrial output Manufacturing Mining Russia: Credit growth 1 Personal rouble loans Corporate rouble loans Central & Eastern Europe: Trade balance US$ bn US$ bn month total 1 Hungary 1 Czech Russia (RHS) -3 Poland Central & Eastern Europe: Consumer prices 3 Romania Latvia 1 Bulgaria 1 Lithuania Estonia August 13

12 Rest of the world & financial developments Turkey: Industrial output Turkey: Exports (US$) 1=1 (seasonally adjusted) Turkey (goods) Turkey (services) month moving average South Africa: Industrial output & Retail Sales 1 Retail sales volumes 1 Emergers: Exchange rates Index (Dec 3, 1 = 1) Turkey (v Euro) - Manufacturing output month moving average S. Africa (v US$) 7 depreciation Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan- Jul- Jan-13 Jul-13 Emergers: 1 year government bond yields % 13 Brazil 11 1 Turkey 9 South Africa 7 Poland 3 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan- Jul- Jan-13 Jul-13 Emergers: Equity markets Index (Dec 3, 1 = 1) 1 13 US S&P Emergers (MSCI, US$) 7 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan- Jul- Jan-13 Jul-13 1 August 13

13 Industrial Production Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Consumer prices Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul August 13

14 Exports (US dollars) Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Imports (US dollars) Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul August 13

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing 1 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Forecasts eased down again as trade remains sluggish We have cut our forecast for China again following weak growth in Q1. We now expect the

More information

All the BRICs dampening world trade in 2015

All the BRICs dampening world trade in 2015 Aug Weekly Economic Briefing Emerging Markets All the BRICs dampening world trade in World trade in has been hit by an unexpectedly sharp drag from the very largest emerging economies. The weakness in

More information

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing 21 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Recession looms for some emerging economies Several major emerging economies struggling with domestically-induced problems are now in, or flirting

More information

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Global scenarios Slower growth in emerging markets is a key risk to our central forecast for the global economy. While more positive signs have recently appeared

More information

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing The risks of renewed capital flight from emerging markets Recent episodes of capital flight from emerging markets have highlighted the vulnerability of a number

More information

SEPTEMBER Overview

SEPTEMBER Overview Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).

More information

What is driving US Treasury yields higher?

What is driving US Treasury yields higher? What is driving Treasury yields higher? " our programme for reducing our [Fed's] balance sheet, which began in October, is proceeding smoothly. Barring a very significant and unexpected weakening in the

More information

Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates

Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates Kathy Bostjancic Head of US Macro Investor Services kathybostjancic@oxfordeconomics.com April 2016 Oxford Economics forecast highlights

More information

Interest Rates Continue to Climb

Interest Rates Continue to Climb SEPTEMBER 3, RETAIL RATE FORECASTS Interest Rates Continue to Climb # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff North American economic growth rebounded in the spring. ff The Bank of Canada and the

More information

Macro Research Economic outlook

Macro Research Economic outlook Macro Research Economic outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco April 2017 Roadmap Global Economy The global outlook remains favorable Global growth positive momentum continues, with a synchronized

More information

Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class

Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to

More information

Global Economic Prospects

Global Economic Prospects Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally

More information

International Monetary Fund

International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF April 212 Towards Lasting Stability Global Economy Pulled Back from the Brink Policies Stepped

More information

Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers

Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking

More information

SINGAPORE FOCUS I. Singapore MAS Policy Preview: It s Time To Catch Up With Policy Normalization

SINGAPORE FOCUS I. Singapore MAS Policy Preview: It s Time To Catch Up With Policy Normalization Singapore MAS Policy Preview: It s Time To Catch Up With Policy Normalization The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is expected to release monetary policy decision on the 2nd week of April 2018 (9th

More information

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27

More information

B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook

B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy

More information

June 2013 Equities Rally Drive Global Re-rating

June 2013 Equities Rally Drive Global Re-rating June 2013 Equities Rally Drive Global Re-rating Since the lows of 2011, global equities have rallied 30% while Earnings per Share remained flat. This has been the biggest mid-cycle re-rating of global

More information

Monetary Policy under Fed Normalization and Other Challenges

Monetary Policy under Fed Normalization and Other Challenges Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* Santander Latin America Day London, June 28 th, 2018 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author

More information

Economic Outlook. Macro Research Itaú Unibanco

Economic Outlook. Macro Research Itaú Unibanco Economic Outlook Macro Research Itaú Unibanco June, 2013 Agenda Economia Global Heterogeneous growth: U.S. growing faster, Europe in recession. Deceleration in the emerging economies. The Fed signals a

More information

The External Environment for Developing Countries

The External Environment for Developing Countries d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group

More information

Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy February 2017 Global Stock Market Rally likely to Continue with Solid Q4 Earnings & Stronger 2017 Earnings, ECB

More information

Global MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery?

Global MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery? Global MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery? John Walker Chairman and Chief Economist jwalker@oxfordeconomics.com March 2014 Oxford Economics Oxford Economics is one of the

More information

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,

More information

The real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.

The real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter. QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2007, growing at the fastest pace in more than a year. According the final estimates released

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. November 2017

Eurozone Economic Watch. November 2017 Eurozone Economic Watch November 2017 Eurozone: improved outlook, still subdued inflation Our MICA-BBVA model for growth estimates for the moment a quarterly GDP figure of around -0.7% in, after % QoQ

More information

OUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc.

OUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc. OUTLOOK 2014/2015 BMO Asset Management Inc. We would like to take this opportunity to provide our capital markets outlook for the remainder of 2014 and the first half of 2015 and our recommended asset

More information

The real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.

The real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter. QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter of 2007, growing at an annual rate of 3.4% Q/Q (+1.8% Y/Y), according to the GDP advance estimates

More information

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai

More information

The international environment

The international environment The international environment This article (1) discusses developments in the global economy since the August 1999 Quarterly Bulletin. Domestic demand growth remained strong in the United States, and with

More information

26 Nov Executive Summary. Analyst Hillary Ho Li Ling

26 Nov Executive Summary. Analyst Hillary Ho Li Ling Analyst Hillary Ho Li Ling +6565311517 hillaryho@phillip.com.sg Executive Summary United States: We maintain our stance that QE2 will not make a huge difference to economic conditions. Growth will continue

More information

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018 7 December 8 Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets T he monetary board of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas decided to keep its key policy rates steady during its final meeting for the year on

More information

Latin America: the shadow of China

Latin America: the shadow of China Latin America: the shadow of China Juan Ruiz BBVA Research Chief Economist for South America Latin America Outlook Second Quarter Madrid, 13 May Latin America Outlook / May Key messages 1 2 3 4 5 The global

More information

Economic activity gathers pace

Economic activity gathers pace Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Economic activity gathers pace Positive data flow Recovery broadening out GDP growth revised up to

More information

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK: FAVOR U.S.; STICK WITH EM

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK: FAVOR U.S.; STICK WITH EM LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS U.S. economic and earnings growth continue to stand out globally and support our positive view of U.S. equities. We continue to see upside potential

More information

Economic Outlook: Global and India. Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014

Economic Outlook: Global and India. Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014 Economic Outlook: Global and India Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014 Global scenario US expected to drive global growth in 2015 Difference from % YoY Growth October Actual October Projections

More information

OVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014

OVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014 OVERVIEW The EU recovery is firming Europe's economic recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2013, is expected to continue spreading across countries and gaining strength while at the same time

More information

Economic Outlook January, 2012

Economic Outlook January, 2012 Economic Outlook January, 2012 Summary Global economy Low global growth scenario, tail risks have become smaller. Risks (Debt Ceiling, elections in Italy, growth in Europe). Brazil Activity shows signs

More information

World Economic outlook

World Economic outlook Frontier s Strategy Note: 01/23/2014 World Economic outlook IMF has just released the World Economic Update on the 21st January 2015 and we are displaying the main points here. Even with the sharp oil

More information

Portfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios

Portfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios Portfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios As of Sept. 30, 2017 Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., ("Ameriprise Financial") is the investment manager for Active Opportunity

More information

Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook Will the growth continue and at what pace? Latin American Conference São Paulo August 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information

More information

Mexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy

Mexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy Mexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* XP Securities Washington, DC, 13 October 2017 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document

More information

Economic and Financial Market Highlights (20-26 March 2010)

Economic and Financial Market Highlights (20-26 March 2010) Economic and Financial Market Highlights (-6 March ) Indicators continue to point to strong recoveries amidst rising inflation, but with lingering concerns about the global outlook and sluggish decline

More information

Global Economic Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014

Global Economic Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014 PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Economic Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014 2014 Year Ahead - Global Economic Outlook Global Growth Strengthens as U.S. & U.K. GDP Growth

More information

Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019

Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 October 2018 Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 Natalia Orlova Head of Alfa Bank Macro Insights +7 495 795 36 77 norlova@alfabank.ru Egypt Saudi Arabia Brazil S. Africa UAE Iraq China Japan US Mexico UK Russia

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover

More information

AsianBondsOnline WEEKLY DEBT HIGHLIGHTS

AsianBondsOnline WEEKLY DEBT HIGHLIGHTS AsianBondsOnline WEEKLY 9 January 7 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Consumer price inflation in Indonesia eased to.% year-on-year (y-o-y) in December from.6% y-o-y

More information

Austria s economy will grow by 2¾% in 2017

Austria s economy will grow by 2¾% in 2017 Gerhard Fenz, Friedrich Fritzer, Martin Schneider 1 In the first half of 217, Austria s economy gathered further momentum. With growth rates by.8% in both the first and the second quarters, Austria recorded

More information

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES. Bank of Russia.

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES. Bank of Russia. RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES Bank of Russia July 218 < -1% -1-9% -9-8% -8-7% -7-6% -6-5% -5-4% -4-3% -3-2% -2-1% -1 % 1% 1 2% 2 3% 3 4% 4 5% 5 6% 6 7% 7 8% 8 9% 9 1% 1 11% 11

More information

Cosa ci riserva il 2008?

Cosa ci riserva il 2008? Cosa ci riserva il 28? Scenari e previsioni per l anno in corso Keith Wade Capo Economista The US economy today A re-assessment of risk De-leveraging Financial sector Real economy Historical precedents

More information

International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF

International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF IMF Presentation April 3, The recovery is solidifying but it will take some time before it significantly

More information

Eurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017

Eurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 EUROZONE WATCH FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone: A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections The recovery proceeded at a steady and solid pace in, resulting in an

More information

Leumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.

Leumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa. Global Economics Monthly Review May 8, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Key

More information

Mexico: Dealing with international financial uncertainty. Manuel Sánchez

Mexico: Dealing with international financial uncertainty. Manuel Sánchez Manuel Sánchez United States Mexico Chamber of Commerce, Chicago, IL, August 6, 2015 Contents 1 Moderate economic growth 2 Waiting for the liftoff 3 Taming inflation 2 Since 2014, Mexico s economic recovery

More information

Recent Economic Developments and Monetary Policy in Mexico

Recent Economic Developments and Monetary Policy in Mexico Recent Economic Developments and Monetary Policy in Mexico Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* United States-Mexico Chamber of Commerce, Northeast Chapter New York City, 2 June 2017

More information

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018 January 9 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets L ast week, the Philippines raised USD. billion from the sale of -year global bonds priced at basis points above benchmark

More information

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Gill Marcus, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Gill Marcus, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 27 March 2014 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Gill Marcus, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous

More information

RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003

RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003 OCTOBER 23 RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK MEDIUM-TERM CHALLENGES 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In tandem with the global economic cycle, the Mexican

More information

Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook Will growth continue and at what pace? International Containerboard Conference Chicago November 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch

Eurozone Economic Watch BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 1 Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 Eurozone: Growth to recover in 4Q18, but concerns about the slowdown next year are growing Eurozone GDP growth

More information

The External Environment for Developing Countries

The External Environment for Developing Countries d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries March 2008 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group

More information

Central and Eastern Europe: Global spillovers and external vulnerabilities

Central and Eastern Europe: Global spillovers and external vulnerabilities Central and Eastern Europe: Central and Eastern Europe: Global spillovers and external vulnerabilities ICEG Annual Conference Brussels, May 28 Christoph Rosenberg International Monetary Fund Overview The

More information

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY. RUSSIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY December 2018

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY. RUSSIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY December 2018 4% RUSSIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND December 1 2 Consumer prices (1) At the end of 1, inflation is expected to be close to 4%, which corresponds to the Bank of Russia s target 2 Inflation indicators, % YoY

More information

GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH. July 2017

GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH. July 2017 GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH July 2017 Positive global outlook, with projections revised across areas The global outlook remains positive. Our BBVA-GAIN model estimates global GDP growth at 1% QoQ in,

More information

World Bank Thailand Economic Monitor November Press Launch November 4, 2009

World Bank Thailand Economic Monitor November Press Launch November 4, 2009 World Bank Thailand Economic Monitor November 2009 Press Launch November 4, 2009 overview The Thai economy is rebounding from a rocky first half of 2009, but the medium-term outlook is uncertain. The Thai

More information

Growth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy

Growth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy Growth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy 1. Growth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy The Thai economy expanded by slightly less than the previous projection due to weaker-than-anticipated

More information

Weekly Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary November 18, 2014 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging Burt White Chief Investment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist

More information

Global Economic Prospects. South Asia. June 2014 Andrew Burns

Global Economic Prospects. South Asia. June 2014 Andrew Burns Global Economic Prospects South Asia June 214 Andrew Burns Main Messages 214 Global forecast has been downgraded, mainly reflecting one-off factors Financing conditions have eased temporarily, but are

More information

Global Risk Outlook May 2016

Global Risk Outlook May 2016 Global Risk Outlook May 2016 Scott Livermore Managing Director and COO slivermore@oxfordeconomics.com About Oxford Economics Oxford Economics is a world leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis.

More information

HKU announces 2015 Q2 HK Macroeconomic Forecast

HKU announces 2015 Q2 HK Macroeconomic Forecast Press Release HKU announces 2015 Q2 HK Macroeconomic Forecast April 9, 2015 1 Overview The APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong

More information

Global Investment Outlook

Global Investment Outlook PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook April 2014 Stocks to Rebound & Post Further Gains as Global Growth Strengthens after Q1 Soft Patch, Earnings Rebound, Low Interest

More information

Fund Information. Fund Name. Fund Category. Fund Investment Objective. Fund Performance Benchmark. Fund Distribution Policy

Fund Information. Fund Name. Fund Category. Fund Investment Objective. Fund Performance Benchmark. Fund Distribution Policy Fund Information Fund Name PB Asia Pacific Dividend Fund () Fund Category Equity Fund Investment Objective To provide income by investing in a portfolio of stocks in domestic and regional markets which

More information

GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK

GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Max Darnell, Managing Partner, Chief Investment Officer All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. performance is no

More information

Fund Performance Average Total Return for the Following Years Ended 28 February 2018

Fund Performance Average Total Return for the Following Years Ended 28 February 2018 Fund Information Fund Name PB Asia Emerging Growth Fund () Fund Category Equity Fund Investment Objective To achieve capital growth over the medium to long-term period by primarily investing in the securities

More information

Financial stability risks: old and new

Financial stability risks: old and new Financial stability risks: old and new Hyun Song Shin* Bank for International Settlements 4 December 2014 Brookings Institution Washington DC *Views expressed here are mine, not necessarily those of the

More information

Monthly Outlook. June Summary

Monthly Outlook. June Summary Monthly Outlook June 2015 Summary Yields of US Treasuries (USTs) rallied in May, with the 2-year and 10-year yields up 4 and 9 basis points (bps) respectively as compared to end-april levels. During the

More information

FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track -

FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track - REVISED to reflect the 2 nd QE for the Apr-Jun Qtr of 2018 FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track - September 10, 2018 Copyright Mizuho Research

More information

Japan s Economy: Monthly Review

Japan s Economy: Monthly Review Japan's Economy 18 July 214 (No. of pages: 8) Japanese report: 18 Jul 214 Japan s Economy: Monthly Review China s shadow banking problem requires continued monitoring Economic Intelligence Team Mitsumaru

More information

Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Mayura Hooper Phone: 973-367-7930 Email:

More information

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. World Economy Autumn No. 33 (2017 Q3) KIEL INSTITUTE NO. 33 (2017 Q3)

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. World Economy Autumn No. 33 (2017 Q3) KIEL INSTITUTE NO. 33 (2017 Q3) KIEL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK World Economy Autumn 7 Finalized September 6, 7 No. 33 (7 Q3) Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths, Galina Potjagailo, and Ulrich Stolzenburg Forecasting Center

More information

Weekly Macroeconomic Review

Weekly Macroeconomic Review 20/12/2011 Weekly Macroeconomic Review Expectations derived from the capital market Our forecast Inflation in the coming months Future cumulative inflation next 12 CPIs (through November 2012 CPI) Inflation

More information

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 December 2017

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 December 2017 Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Strengthening of the pickup in global growth, with GDP expected to increase 2.9% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018. 3 Eurozone The eurozone recovery is upholding

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch

Eurozone Economic Watch BBVA Research - Global Economic Watch December 2018 / 1 Eurozone Economic Watch December 2018 Eurozone GDP growth still slows gradually, but high uncertainty could take its toll GDP growth could grow by

More information

Fed described the economy as "slow" and said employers remained reluctant to create jobs and Inflation "somewhat low.

Fed described the economy as slow and said employers remained reluctant to create jobs and Inflation somewhat low. 08 Nov 2010 UNITED STATES The ISM manufacturing index rose to 56.9 in October from 54.4 in September, led by growth in autos, computers and exported goods. The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 54.3

More information

2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , ,000-1,500-2,000-2,500. May-13. Jun-13. Apr-13. Feb-13. Mar-13

2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , ,000-1,500-2,000-2,500. May-13. Jun-13. Apr-13. Feb-13. Mar-13 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 QUARTERLY REVIEW June 213 ECONOMIC REPORT The End of Euphoria Perception vs.

More information

The Outlook for the World Economy

The Outlook for the World Economy AIECE General Meeting Brussels, 14/15 November 218 The Outlook for the World Economy Downward risks are rising Klaus-Jürgen Gern Kiel Institute for the World Economy Forecasting Center Global growth has

More information

Financial wealth of private households worldwide

Financial wealth of private households worldwide Economic Research Financial wealth of private households worldwide Munich, October 217 Recovery in turbulent times Assets and liabilities of private households worldwide in EUR trillion and annualrate

More information

Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy March 2017 Global Stock Markets Rally likely to Continue, Driven by Strong Earnings & Strengthening GDP Growth.

More information

Industrial Production Annex

Industrial Production Annex Frequency Global Economic Prospects January 2012 Recent economic developments Unique exogenous shocks have affected industrial output throughout the year. The recovery in industrial output growth from

More information

Schroder Asian Income Monthly Fund Update

Schroder Asian Income Monthly Fund Update Schroder Asian Income Monthly Fund Update Fund Performance As at 30 September 2014, SGD 1 month Year to date Since launch* Schroder Asian Income Fund (Bid-Bid) (%) -1.7 8.4 35.2 Schroder Asian Income Fund

More information

BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook

BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook 7 March 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW March 2018 BNM MPC BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook Overnight Policy Rate maintained at 3.25%. In line with our expectation, overnight policy rate,

More information

Reviewing Macro-economic Developments and Understanding Macro-Economic Policy

Reviewing Macro-economic Developments and Understanding Macro-Economic Policy MINISTRY OF FINANCE GOVERNMENT OF INDIA Reviewing Macro-economic Developments and Understanding Macro-Economic Policy Module 5 Contemporary Themes in India s Economic Development and the Economic Survey

More information

Economic and market snapshot for January 2016

Economic and market snapshot for January 2016 From left to right: Herman van Papendorp (Head of Macro Research and Asset Allocation), Sanisha Packirisamy (Economist) Economic and market snapshot for January 2016 Global economic developments United

More information

Recent developments in the Global and South African economies

Recent developments in the Global and South African economies Day Month Year Recent developments in the Global and South African economies Presented by: Nico Kelder Senior Economist Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa 2010 Growth, Development and Investment

More information

SOUTH ASIA. Chapter 2. Recent developments

SOUTH ASIA. Chapter 2. Recent developments SOUTH ASIA GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS January 2014 Chapter 2 s GDP growth rose to an estimated 4.6 percent in 2013 from 4.2 percent in 2012, but was well below its average in the past decade, reflecting

More information

Country Risk Analytics

Country Risk Analytics Emerging Markets Country Risk Analytics MacroFinance Research Quarterly - 2018 Q2 www.taceconomics.com www.taceconomics.com 2 Country Risk Analytics EM Quarterly MacroFinance Research 2018 Q2 Description

More information

The Economic Outlook of Taiwan

The Economic Outlook of Taiwan The Economic Outlook of Taiwan by Ray Yeutien Chou and Shou-Yung Yin The Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei October 2016 Prepared for Project LINK 2016 Fall Meeting, Toronto City, Oct. 19-21,

More information

CHINA S ECONOMY AT A GLANCE

CHINA S ECONOMY AT A GLANCE CHINA S ECONOMY AT A GLANCE APRIL 218 CONTENTS Key points 2 Gross Domestic Product 3 Industrial Production 4 Investment 5 International trade - trade balance and imports International trade - exports 6

More information

Capital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD

Capital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD Capital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD Emerging Capital Markets Update for August 2011 All data are as of Wednesday, August 31, 2011. The regional indices are

More information

Year in review Summary

Year in review Summary Summary Canadian equities declined in 2018 and underperformed their global peers in Canadian dollar terms. U.S. equities also corrected as the risk of slowing pace of economic expansion, higher interest

More information