Global Monthly July 2017

Transcription

1 Global Monthly July 2017 Overview High-frequency data continue to suggest an ongoing recovery in global activity. Global inflation has abated, reflecting subdued energy prices and low core inflation in major economies. Following a rebound in 16Q4 and 17Q1, global trade momentum continued in 17Q2. Capital inflows to EMDEs slowed in July, partly reflecting a rise in global bond yields. Oil prices are fluctuating around $45/bbl, with global oil stocks close to record highs. Chart of the Month Unconventional monetary policies by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and, later, by the European Central Bank (ECB), led to a significant expansion of their balance sheets. Table of Contents Monthly Highlights... 2 Special Focus... 6 Recent Publications of Prospects Group... 8 Recent World Bank Working Papers... 8 Recent World Bank Reports... 8 Table A: Major Data Releases... 8 Table B: Activity and Inflation... 9 Table C: Trade and Finance... 9 Table D: Financial Markets Table E: Commodity Prices Asset holdings by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank In June, the Federal Reserve announced that it would start reducing the size of its balance sheet this year, while the ECB signaled in July that the ongoing recovery might warrant a further unwinding of asset purchases over time. Prospects of diminished monetary policy support contributed to an uptick in Euro Area and U.S. long-term yields in July. Sources: Federal Reserve Economic Data. Note: Last observation is June Special Focus: Arm s-length Trade: A Source of Post-Crisis Trade Weakness U.S. trade data highlight that arm s-length trade trade between unaffiliated firms accounts disproportionately for the post-crisis trade slowdown. Compared to intra-firm trade, arm s-length trade depends more heavily on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), where output growth has slowed sharply, and on sectors that have languished after the crisis. Constrained access to finance, heightened policy uncertainty, and firm-level characteristics also played a role. The Global Monthly is a publication of the Global Macroeconomics Team of the Prospects Group in the Development Economics Vice Presidency. This edition was prepared by Marc Stocker and Dana Vorisek, based on contributions from John Baffes, Mai Anh Bui, Sinem Celik, Gerard Kambou, Eung Ju Kim, Seong Tae Kim, Csilla Lakatos, Yoki Okawa, Temel Taskin, Ekaterine Vashakmadze, Collette Wheeler, and Lei Sandy Ye. This Global Monthly reflects information available as of July 25. For more information, visit:

2 Monthly Highlights Global economy: positive momentum. Global GDP growth moderated somewhat in 17Q1, to 2.6 percent (q/q saar) from an average of 3 percent in the last two quarters of The modest deceleration was partly driven by weaker growth in the United States, which was restrained by a temporary dip in consumer spending. In contrast, growth strengthened in the Euro Area, was resilient in China, remained positive in Russia, and rebounded in Brazil. Eastern Europe and Central Asia continued to benefit from the recovery in the Euro Area, while an uptick in global trade helped sustain robust growth in East Asia and Pacific. In Sub-Saharan Africa, activity remained soft, contracting for the second consecutive quarter in South Africa. Recent highfrequency data suggest strengthening global growth. Industrial production showed positive momentum up to April, while the global composite PMI remained close to a two-year high in May and June. Global median inflation fell to around 2.1 percent in May and June, largely driven by recent declines in oil prices and continued low core inflation in major economies (Figure 1A). Global trade: continued momentum. Global goods trade remained unusually strong in 17Q1, growing by more than 7 percent (q/q saar) for the second consecutive quarter. Trade growth accelerated in May, and new export orders strengthened up to June, suggesting continued momentum in 17Q2 (Figure 1B). Protectionist tendencies have been rising, albeit moderately, in G20 economies introduced 42 new trade-restrictive measures (new or increased tariffs, customs regulations, and rules of origin restrictions) between October 2016 and May 2017 a slightly higher rate than during the same period one year earlier, but below the trend observed since the financial crisis. United States: declining inflation. Growth is expected to post a modest rebound in 17Q2, following a temporary consumptionled slowdown in 17Q1. Labor market conditions improved further in 17Q2, with job creation accelerating in June, the labor participation rate increasing, and the unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, remaining close to its post-crisis low. Broad indicators of labor market slack, such as the U-6 measure of unemployment, showed significant improvement since the start of the year. In the past, the return of marginally attached and discouraged workers in the labor market coincided with rising wage pressures. FIGURE 1A Global inflation and oil price changes FIGURE 1B Global trade growth FIGURE 1C U.S. unemployment and wage growth Sources: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, World Bank. A. Last observation is June B. Last observation is May C. Latest observation is June U6-U3 shows the difference, in percentage points, between U6 unemployment and U3 unemployment. 2

3 However, hourly earnings decelerated during 17Q2, to an annual rate of 2.5 percent in June (Figure 1C). Coupled with moderating core inflation up to June, the absence of rising wage pressure contributed to a decline in market-based inflation expectations. However, the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked policy interest rates in June, stressing the temporary nature of the inflation slowdown as well as prospects of growth outpacing its potential rate over the next two years. The central bank also announced that it plans to gradually reduce the size of its balance sheet. Euro Area: further improvement. Growth reached a two-year high of 2.3 percent (q/q saar) in 17Q1, with high-frequency indicators suggesting continued strength in 17Q2. In June, the composite PMI remained close to record highs, although it declined marginally from May, while economic sentiment further improved. Credit growth has been on an upward trend since mid- 2015, reflecting increased traction of exceptionally accommodative monetary policy. It remained close to post-crisis highs in April and May, albeit moderating somewhat (Figure 2A). Headline inflation dropped to 1.3 percent in June, reflecting receding energy prices, while core inflation recovered slightly to 1.1 percent. The ECB left its policy stance unchanged in June, but highlighted a shifting balance of risks. In July, it signaled that the recovery might warrant further policy normalization. Policy uncertainty diminished in June following the election results in the Netherlands and France. China: robust growth. GDP expanded by 6.9 percent y/y in 17Q2 the same rate as in 17Q1. In June, industrial production and retail sales growth accelerated, while fixed asset investment growth was stable. Credit growth remained strong, at above 12 percent (y/y) throughout 17Q2, reflecting rapidly expanding loans to households, but non-traditional banking activities continued to moderate. Although regional divergences in the housing market persist, the gap between prices in large cities and that in medium-size cities has narrowed. Policy and regulatory tightening have been calibrated to support market stability. In July, the National Financial Work Conference emphasized the importance of deepening financial regulatory reforms and containing financial risks. Foreign exchange reserves rose for the fifth consecutive month in June (Figure 2B). Since the beginning of the year, capital outflows have slowed as China tightened rules FIGURE 2A Euro Area credit growth and inflation FIGURE 2B China s foreign currency reserves FIGURE 2C New exports orders in EMDE commodity exporters and importers Source: European Central Bank, Haver Analytics, Markit Economics, World Bank. A. Inflation is year-on-year change of consumer price indices. Private credit is total loans and securities vis-a-vis euro area non-mfi excl. general gov. reported by MFI in the euro area (stock). Last observation is June 2017 for inflation and May 2017 for private credit growth. B. Change in reserves is month-on-month. Last observation is June C.GDP-weighted average. Commodity exporters include Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Commodity importers include India, China, Poland, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Mexico, and Turkey. Last observation is June

4 on moving capital outside the country. MSCI introduced China s A-stocks in its global benchmark equity index in June. Major commodity exporters: modest pickup. Export orders in most commodity exporters continued to recover in 17Q2, partly supported by continued strong global trade growth (Figure 2C). GDP growth in Brazil rebounded strongly to 4.3 percent (q/q saar) in 17Q1, after eight quarters of contraction, but remained slightly negative on a y/y basis (Figure 3A). The uptick reflected a large, and likely temporary, expansion in the agricultural sector. The composite PMI remained above the 50-threshold from April to June. Activity in Russia continued to expand in 17Q1. Recent industrial production data (May) and PMI surveys (June) indicate further improvement in 17Q2. In Indonesia and Malaysia, both domestic demand and exports continued to support robust activity in 17Q2, following strong growth in 17Q1. In Nigeria, PMI data as of June suggest manufacturing activity is strengthening, although GDP in 17Q1 contracted 0.5 percent (y/y). In Saudi Arabia, GDP growth deteriorated to negative 0.5 percent (y/y) in 17Q1, driven by oil production cuts, while non-oil sector growth remained steady. Major commodity importers: mixed. In India, GDP growth slowed to 6.1 percent (y/y) in 17Q1, as expected (Figure 3.B). Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 52.7 in June, the highest level since 16Q2. In Mexico, industrial production fell 0.3 percent (y/y, sa) in April, hindered by a mining sector contraction. In Turkey, GDP growth was sustained at 5 percent (y/y) in 17Q1, while activity indicators suggest momentum in 17Q2. Poland s manufacturing PMI in April indicates a pickup in both investment and private consumption, following GDP growth of 4.4 percent (y/y) in 17Q1. In Thailand, manufacturing PMI and exports improved in 17Q2, while business and consumer confidence dropped. Global financing conditions: generally favorable. Global financing conditions continue to be primarily driven by shifting expectations about monetary policy and inflation prospects in the United States and Euro Area. U.S. long-term yields decreased through much of 17Q2, mainly reflecting disappointing inflation outcomes and diminished market expectations of substantial fiscal stimulus. Despite an additional hike in U.S. policy interest rates in June, long-term U.S. yields remained near levels prevailing at FIGURE 3A GDP growth in major EMDE commodity exporters FIGURE 3B GDP growth in major EMDE commodity importers FIGURE 3C U.S. and German 10-year government bond yields Sources: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, World Bank. C. Vertical line indicates the value of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield on December 16, 2015, the date the Federal Reserve announced its first post-crisis interest rate hike. Last observation is July 25,

5 the start of the tightening cycle (Figure 3C). U.S. long-term yields continue to be contained in part by spillovers from quantitative easing policies in other major advanced economies and strong global demand for safe liquid assets. In June, however, the ECB shifted its forward guidance, signaling that further monetary policy normalization is likely as the recovery continues. This led to upward movement in both Euro Area and U.S. longterm yields. EMDE financial markets: moderating capital flows. After posting solid gains throughout the first half of 2017, returns on EMDE assets fell at the start of July, reflecting an upward movement in U.S. long-term yields and concerns about higher borrowing costs. While equity markets have been somewhat resilient, remaining near all-time highs, bonds and currencies have suffered from an unexpected tightening of borrowing conditions, with the brunt of the adjustment taking place in higher-risk and commodity exporters. In particular, Argentina, Russia, Colombia, and Turkey have seen currency depreciations in excess of 2 ½ percent in trade-weighted terms since the start of June (Figure 4A). Capital flows into EMDE bond funds registered net outflows in July the first time this year contrasting with continued inflows into equity funds (Figure 4B). Meanwhile, EMDE s international bond issuances remained robust in June. Oil prices: downward pressures. Oil prices averaged over $50/ bbl from November 2016 to April 2017, mainly on expectations that the OPEC/non-OPEC production cuts would accelerate rebalancing on international oil markets. However, the rebound in U.S. shale, with the U.S. rig count doubling within a year, and increased oil supplies from Libya and Nigeria (non-participants of the OPEC/non-OPEC agreement), have kept OECD and, particularly, U.S. stocks still at high levels, exerting downward pressure on prices (Figure 4C). As a result, oil prices traded at around $47/bbl in the first half of July. Metal prices have been stable, while agricultural prices have softened on well-supplied conditions. FIGURE 4A Change in nominal effective exchange rates since June 1, 2017 FIGURE 4B Portfolio inflows to EMDEs FIGURE 4C OECD and U.S. oil stockpiles Sources: Bloomberg, JP Morgan, International Energy Agency. A. Nominal effective exchange rates (trade-weighted, 2010 = 100). Last observation is July 24, B. Last observation is July 19, C. Last observation is April

6 Special Focus: Arm s-length Trade: A Source of Post-Crisis Trade Weakness Global trade growth reached a post-crisis low of 2.4 percent in 2016 significantly below the pre-crisis annual average of 7.6 percent. Both cyclical and structural factors contributed to the trade deceleration. One of these structural factors is the maturing of global value chains. Global value chains often involve numerous cross-border operations, conducted either intrafirm that is, between firms related through ownership or control or between unaffiliated firms at arm s-length. A firm s decision between arm s-length and intra-firm transactions has its roots in the underlying motivation for vertical integration and foreign direct investment. A more pronounced slowdown in arm s-length trade. U.S. trade data highlight that arm s-length trade accounted disproportionately for the overall post-crisis trade slowdown. This reflected a higher pre-crisis average and a weaker post-crisis rebound in arm s-length trade growth compared with intra-firm trade. During the crisis itself, the U.S. data suggest a broad-based trade collapse, in which intra-firm and arm s-length trade contracted to similar degrees. By 2014, intra-firm trade growth had returned close to its pre-crisis average (4.3 percent of exports and 5.0 percent for imports). In contrast, arm s-length trade growth remained significantly below its high pre-crisis average: its growth slowed to a post-crisis annual average of 4.7 percent compared to 11.3 percent during (Figures 5A and 5B). FIGURE 5A U.S. export growth FIGURE 5B U.S. import growth FIGURE 5C Share of arm s-length trade in total U.S. trade The importance of arm s-length trade. Just over half (about 57 percent) of total U.S. trade is conducted at arm s-length between unrelated firms. The share of arm s-length trade is much lower for U.S. imports (50 percent) than exports (70 percent), for U.S. trade in capital goods (50 percent) than final goods (60 percent), and for U.S. trade with advanced economies (51 percent) than with EMDEs (64 percent; Figure 5C). In general, higher per capita income in a trading partner is associated with a lower share of arm s-length trade. The share of intra-firm trade of total U.S. trade remained broadly stable from 2002 until the global financial crisis but subsequently increased, especially for U.S. trade with EMDEs. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, World Bank. A. B. U.S. exports and imports of goods based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Global data is not available. C. U.S. exports and imports of goods, average for The residual to 100 percent is the share of arm s-length trade in total U.S. goods exports or goods imports with the world, advanced consecutive events are identified within a fiveyear period in a country, the one associated with the lowest real GDP growth is used. 6

7 Country composition of arm s-length and intra-firm trade. Geographical proximity and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) favor intra-firm transactions with two of the United States largest trading partners, Mexico and Canada (Figure 6A). Canada is the single largest destination of U.S. intrafirm exports (almost one-third of total U.S. intra-firm exports) and imports, followed by Mexico (about one-fifth of total U.S. intra-firm exports). More than half of U.S. imports from its main non-nafta trading partners are also intra-firm transactions (with the exception of China and Italy). Factors contributing to arm s-length trade weakness: composition. First, compared to intra-firm exports, a greater share of arm s-length exports is shipped to EMDEs, especially BRICS economies. Just as the rapid pre-crisis growth in EMDEs lifted arm s-length export growth, their sharp post-crisis growth slowdown dampened it. Second, arm s-length exports and imports include a greater share of sectors that grew rapidly precrisis but have struggled post-crisis (textiles and apparel, machinery), as well as sectors that benefited from the pre-crisis commodity price boom (mining, metals, energy). These compositional differences are the main reason behind the steeperthan-average slowdown in arm s-length trade growth. Had the composition of arm s-length trade matched that of average exports and imports, arm s-length export and import growth would have slowed by 1.2 and 1.8 percentage points less, respectively, between the pre- and post-crisis periods (Figures 6B and 6C). Other contributing factors. Firms engaged in outsourcing tend to be smaller, less productive, less efficient in inventory management, and have more restricted access to finance than firms integrated vertically. These firms are also less resilient to severe demand and financing shocks. Heightened financial risks and policy uncertainty may also have discouraged arm s-length transactions. Such factors may have accelerated the exit of firms trading at arm s-length during the global financial crisis and its aftermath. FIGURE 6A Main destinations and sources of U.S. exports and imports FIGURE 6B Contribution to deviation from average U.S. export growth, change to FIGURE 6C Contribution to deviation from average U.S. export growth, change to Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, World Bank. A. Residual to 100 percent is the share of all other countries in total U.S. arm slength or intra-firm exports or imports. B. C. Country composition measures the extent to which growth in arm s-length or related-party exports exceeded that of total exports due to a higher initial share of fast-growing countries. It is defined as the difference between hypothetical arm s-length export growth if arm s-length exports to each country had grown at the same rate as total exports to each country, and actual total export growth. Sectoral composition measures the extent to which growth in arm s-length or intra-firm exports exceeded that of total exports because of a higher initial share of fast-growing sectors. It is defined as the difference between hypothetical arm s-length (intra-firm) export growth had arm s-length (intra-firm) sectoral exports grown at the same rate as total sectoral exports, and actual total export growth. Other includes the contribution of fasterthan-average bilateral arm s-length (intra-firm) trade growth within each sector. 7

8 Recent Prospects Group Publications Global Economic Prospects - June 2017 Commodity Markets Outlook - April 2017 Global Economic Prospects - January 2017: Weak Investment in Uncertain Times Commodity Markets Outlook - January 2017: Investment Weakness in Commodity Exporters Recent World Bank Working Papers Arm's-Length Trade: A Source of Post-Crisis Trade Weakness Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa: Magnitude and Evolution On the Predictability of Growth Tax Administration Practices and Firms Perceptions of Corruption: Evidence from Europe and Central Asia Approximating Income Distribution Dynamics Using Aggregate Data Services Trade and Global Value Chains Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics in Zambia Taxation without Representation? Experimental Evidence from Ghana and Uganda on Citizen Action toward Taxes, Oil, and Aid Pension Funds, Capital Markets, and the Power of Diversification Evidence for a Presource Curse? Oil Discoveries, Elevated Expectations, and Growth Disappointments Productivity in the Non-Oil Sector in Nigeria: Firm-Level Evidence Recent World Bank Reports World Development Report 2017: Governance and the Law Doing Business 2017: Equal Opportunity for All TABLE A: Major Data Releases (Percent change, y/y) (Percent change y/y) Recent releases: July 5, July 24, 2017 Upcoming releases: July 25, August 20, 2017 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Brazil 7/7/17 CPI JUN 3.0 % 3.5 % 3.6 % Mexico 7/25/17 Retail sales MAY 1.4% Mexico 7/7/17 CPI JUN 6.3 % 6.5 % 6.2 % United Kingdom 7/26/17 GDP Q2 2.0 % China 7/9/17 CPI JUN 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % Korea, Rep. of 7/26/17 GDP Q2 2.4 % Turkey 7/10/17 IP MAY 3.5 % 6.4 % 6.7 % Austria 7/28/17 GDP Q2 2.3 % Poland 7/11/17 CPI JUN 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.9 % France 7/28/17 GDP Q2 0.9 % Euro Area 7/12/17 IP MAY 4.0 % 2.9 % 1.2 % Spain 7/28/17 GDP Q2 3.0 % India 7/12/17 IP MAY 1.7 % 2.9 % 2.8 % Sweden 7/28/17 GDP Q2 2.2 % Mexico 7/12/17 IP MAY 1.0 % 1.5 % -4.2% United States 7/28/17 GDP Q2 2.1 % Germany 7/13/17 CPI JUN 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.5 % Euro Area 8/1/17 GDP Q2 1.9 % France 7/13/17 CPI JUN 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.8 % Indonesia 8/6/17 GDP Q2 5.0 % Italy 7/14/17 CPI JUN 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.4 % Russia 8/11/17 GDP Q2 0.5 % Ireland 7/14/17 GDP Q1 6.1 % 5.2 % 7.2 % Japan 8/14/17 GDP Q2 1.3 % United States 7/14/17 IP JUN 2.0% 2.5% 1.4% Germany 8/15/17 GDP Q2 1.7 % China 7/16/17 GDP Q2 6.9 % 6.8 % 6.9 % Italy 8/16/17 GDP Q2 1.2 % Euro Area 7/17/17 CPI JUN 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.4 % Hungary 8/16/17 GDP Q2 4.2 % Russia 7/17/17 IP JUN 3.5 % 4.0 % 5.6 % Czech Republic 8/16/17 GDP Q2 1.5 % United Kingdom 7/18/17 CPI MAY 2.6 % 2.9 % 2.9 % Netherlands 8/16/17 GDP Q2 3.2 % South Africa 7/19/17 CPI JUN 5.1 % 5.2 % 5.4 % Poland 8/16/17 GDP Q2 4.0 % Poland 7/19/17 IP JUN 4.5 % 3.8 % 9.1 % Philippines 8/16/17 GDP Q2 6.4 % South Africa 7/19/17 Retail sales MAY 1.7 % -0.3% 2.0 % Malaysia 8/18/17 GDP Q2 5.6 % Canada 7/21/17 CPI JUN 1.0 % 1.1 % 1.3 % Thailand 8/20/17 GDP Q2 3.3 % 8

9 TABLE B: Activity and Inflation (Percent change y/y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q/q, annualized) Industrial production, sa 1 July Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May World Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies Inflation, sa 2 Commodity-exporting EMDEs Other EMDEs East Asia and Pacific East Asia excl. China Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa World Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies Commodity-exporting EMDE Other EMDE East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Industrial production is total production (may exclude construction). When data are unavailable, "industrial production, manufacturing" and "industrial production, manufacturing, non-durable manufacturing, petroleum and coal products, crude petroleum products" are used as proxies. 2Median inflation rate for each grouping. TABLE C: Trade and Finance (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) Exports, nominal, US$, sa 1Total reserves excluding gold are used as proxies when total reserves data are unavailable Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May World Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies Commodity-exporting EMDEs Other EMDEs East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Imports, nominal, US$, sa Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa World Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies Commodity-exporting EMDEs Other EMDEs East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa International reserves, US$ 1 World Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies Commodity-exporting EMDEs Other EMDEs East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

10 TABLE D: Financial Markets (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period ) Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) MRV Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June U.S. federal funds effective ECB repo US$ LIBOR 3-months EURIBOR 3-months U.S. 10-year Treasury yield German Bund, 10 year Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East Africa Stock indexes (end of period) Global (MSCI) Advanced economies ($ index) United States (S&P 500) Europe (S&P Euro 350) Japan (Nikkei 225) Emerging market and developing economies (MSCI) EM Asia EM Europe EM Europe and Middle East EM Latin America & Caribbean Exchange rates (LCU / USD) Advanced economies Euro Area Japan Emerging market and developing economies Brazil China Egypt India Russia South Africa Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index) 1 MRV = most recent value TABLE E: Commodity Prices MRV Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Energy Non-energy Agriculture Metals and minerals Memo items: Crude oil, average ($/bbl) Gold ($/toz) Baltic Dry Index Source: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg 1 MRV = most recent value. 2 Indexes, 2010 = International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC Telephone: ; Internet: Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The maps were produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on these maps do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. 10