CECIMO Statistical Toolbox

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "CECIMO Statistical Toolbox"

Transcription

1 European Association of the Machine Tool Industries where manufacturing begins Inside this edition... 0 Executive Summary 1 Machine Tool Orders 1.1 Orders per Country 1.2 Peter Meier s Forecast CECIMO Statistical Toolbox November 2010 Edition 2 Macro-economic indicators in the EU & correlation with MT orders 2.1 GDP 2.2 Interest Rates - Euribor 2.3 New Orders of Capital Goods 2.4 Industrial Production in Manufacturing 2.5 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 2.6 Capacity Utilisation in the Investment Goods Sector 2.7 Bank Lending Survey 2.8 Foreign Exchange Rates CECIMO aisbl 66, avenue Louise 1050 Brussels Belgium Tel: Fax: For more information: information@cecimo.eu 3 Business Expectations 3.1 Business Confidence Indicator in Europe of OECD 3.2 Purchasing Manager Indexes (PMI) 4 MT-IX 5 Machine Tool Indicators 5.1 External Trade NB: only the highlighted indicators are available in this edition of the toolbox

2 Executive Summary Following the sharp rebound in the European economy, companies in the EU are demanding more financing from their banks, the recent study from the European Central Bank shows. As the huge amounts of money evaporated from the system together with the write-offs for so-called toxic assets, there is a gap to be filled in. It seems this is the right moment for the central bank to step in. Over recent weeks, the hottest topic has been the announcement of the US Federal Reserve to extend its buy-back program by issuing additional billions of dollars. They argue that money needs to be pumped into the system in order to create the stimulus for the struggling US economy. The better the world s largest economy performs, the better for the world, they say. Sceptics say that the move is pointless and will spur the growth in prices or lower the dollar value in other currencies. Although the other worldwide monetary institutions follow the same path as the US, the role of dollar in the world s economy is one of a kind. Firstly, it is the major reserve currency for many countries, especially China. It is expected that Chinese foreign reserves may reach 2.5 trillion USD or even 3 trillion USD by the end of this year. Secondly, the US dollar is commonly used for pricing in international trade. A greater supply of dollars on the market means that relatively rare assets like commodities or other currencies may become more expensive. Subsequently, any holdings of USD are less valuable. On the other hand, cheaper local currency allows exporters sell their products at a lower price in other currencies in order to get a constant value for their money. It therefore follows that imports become less price-competitive. As the foreign exchange rates have a profound impact not only on trade, but also on the broad economical context, we ve decided to start analysing the trends in the Toolbox. The recent recovery in the economy seems to have slowed down in recent months. This touched the car industry; the most important customer of MT industry. Some car manufacturers temporarily stopped production in plants across Europe. The overall number of new cars registered in Europe contracted by almost 10% y-o-y in September. For the first three quarters there were over million cars registered, which is 4.3% lower against the same period in Despite contraction in new registrations, it seems that the car industry has a bright future ahead. High fuel prices and massive political support are the major drivers for shifting from petrol to other fuels to run cars. Though looking the same, electric, hybrid, fuel-cell driven cars are completely different from what we are used to seeing on the streets. The eco-friendly and more efficient change spurs new investment not only in car plants but also in infrastructure. The new wave in the car industry has just begun. China, which is heading to become the largest car market in the world, wants the annual production capacity of electric motor vehicles to reach 1 million units by The program is supported by funding allocated to launching production and subsidies for buyers to encourage purchase. The European car manufacturers estimate the share of new electrically chargeable vehicles at 3-10% in , which means between 450,000 and 1,500,000 units. 2.2 Interest Rates EURIBOR The cost of borrowing money jumped in October by almost 15% against September over a period of 3 months and by nearly 7% over a period of 12 months. Thus, the October 3MEURIBOR indication is at 16 months high or at the highest since the 2Q2009. Surpassing the 1% mark also means that CECIMO Statistical Toolbox November

3 Executive Summary the market price for money increased above the reference level of 1% at which the ECB lends money to banks. This growth could be explained by possible withdrawal of lending support in the next year. 2.3 New Orders in Capital Goods August saw a significant growth in the index of new orders of capital goods. The indication of over 105 points is the highest value since September As a consequence, the 12-month moving average is at its highest level in 6 quarters. Comparing this with the lowest level recorded in 4Q2009, the current number is almost 12% higher. The more stable index of durable consumer goods achieved a level of points in August, i.e. a 26-months high. 2.7 Bank Lending Survey The survey conducted by the European Central Bank between 13 th September and 1 st October 2010 shows a significant increase in demand for credit. The 4Q indication (which refers to the 3Q2010) confirmed the upward trend in the number of banks mentioning increased demand for credit. More importantly, the net demand for loans from companies turned positive in 3Q after more than two years being negative. The improvement in net demand for loans was in a similar range for large firms as for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). However, the ECB reports that the demand for net loans by large firms has remained weaker than demand from SMEs since the second half of Foreign Exchange Rates The major currencies have been outperforming the euro since the end of However, since the 4Q this year the common currency rebounded, mostly against the USD. The price of EUR and CHF increased just slightly. The European currency is still in the downward trend which started at the beginning of The uncertainty about the financial standing of some Eurozone countries contributes largely to the strength of CHF, JPY or to a lesser extent, the USD against the EUR. On the other hand, some monetary stimulus measures that have just been launched in other regions seem to keep the market relatively balanced Business Confidence in Eurozone The October value of OECD s Business Confidence Indicator confirms the upward trend among companies in the Eurozone. Moreover, the recent values are even touching the 2007 all time highs. October was the 7 th month in a row as the BCI is above the reference level of 100 points. 3.2 PMI Index October saw the rate of expansion in Eurozone manufacturing production accelerate for the first time in three months. PMIs signalled expansion in almost all of the nations covered. The only exception was Greece, where the rate of deterioration accelerated. Readings for Spain and Ireland rose back above the neutral 50 mark after dipping below in September. Manufacturing output and new orders rose for the fifteenth successive month in October. Rates of increase improved from the lows seen in September and were well above the earlier flash estimates. The investment and intermediate goods sectors continued to lead the recovery, whereas the consumer sector continues to stall growth, Markit Economics reports. 4 MT-IX October was the third consecutive month displaying a growing CECIMO MTIX. The upward trend also applies to the 12M average of the CECIMO MTIX as well as to Global MTIX. Since the beginning of this year the recovery of CECIMO MTIX is rather fragile. From a technical point of view, the index is required to cross the 150 mark significantly for us to consider the growth as robust. Compared with the bottom level observed in February 2009, CECIMO MTIX is now 84% higher. Looking back at the peak of 2007, the current indication is much less than half of the all-time high. * * * * * CECIMO Statistical Toolbox November

4 2.2 Interest Rates EURIBOR 6% 150 5% 4% EURIBOR 12M 3M average MT ORDERS 12M moving average % 2% 1% 81% correlation between Euribor 3M & 12-month moving average of MT orders 3M EURIBOR 3M average 73,7 90 1,50% 1,01% 0% 50 Q1 99 Q2 99 Q3 99 Q4 99 Q1 00 Q2 00 Q3 00 Q4 00 Q1 01 Q2 01 Q3 01 Q4 01 Q1 02 Q2 02 Q3 02 Q4 02 Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 EURIBOR is the rate at which euro InterBank term deposits are offered by one prime bank to another prime bank. For more information: Source: Euriobor.org and national CECIMO Statistical Toolbox November

5 2.3 Orders of capital goods orders index (index 100 = 2005) MT orders (index 100 = 2005) month moving average of orders of capital goods An 83% correlation between 12-month rolling orders of capital goods and 12-month rolling orders of Machine Tools since month moving average of orders of durable consumer goods 95,4 94, month rolling MT orders 85,6 73, ,9 55 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Eurostat and national associations CECIMO Statistical Toolbox November

6 2.7 Bank Lending Survey 60% Net demand for loans MT orders % There is an 86% correlation between the net demand for loans + 6 months and the Quarterly MT orders since % 120 0% 89 7% 100 Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q % % % of banks mentioning increased demand for credit (if negative, it means a falling demand for credits) % of banks mentioning increased demand for credit (if negative, it means a falling demand for credits) + 6 months MT orders 20-60% 0 Source: European Central Bank CECIMO Statistical Toolbox November

7 2.8 Foreign Exchange Rates 150 CECIMO Foreign Orders Index Units per 1 EUR (quarterly average) 1,7 1,6 CHF CECIMO Foreign Orders USD 1,39 100JPY 1,5 1,4 1,35 1,3 1,2 1,14 1,1 Not strong, but positive correlation between the foreign orders index and the strength of the euro against major currencies suggest that both exchange rate and MT orders follow the performace of the economy 1 0,9 50 0, Source: Eoanda.com and national associations CECIMO Statistical Toolbox November

8 3.1 Business confidence MT orders (100=2005) Business Confidence There is 85% correlation between BCI Europe+ 6 months and smoothed MT Orders in CECIMO 8 since 2001 Business Confidence with 6 month time-lag MT Orders 12M moving average 102, Business confidence shows a long-term trend in industrial production (with a 6-month time-lag). An increase over 100 means expansion; a decrease above 100 means a downturn; an increase below 100 is an upturn and a decrease below 100 is a slowdown 73, ,2 59, Q2 11 Q1 11 Q4 10 Q3 10 Q2 10 Q1 10 Q4 09 Q3 09 Q2 09 Q1 09 Q4 08 Q3 08 Q2 08 Q1 08 Q4 07 Q3 07 Q2 07 Q1 07 Q4 06 Q3 06 Q2 06 Q1 06 Q4 05 Q3 05 Q2 05 Q1 05 Q4 04 Q3 04 Q2 04 Q1 04 Q4 03 Q3 03 Q2 03 Q1 03 Q4 02 Q3 02 Q2 02 Q1 02 Q4 01 Q3 01 Q2 01 Q1 01 Source: OECD and national associations CECIMO Statistical Toolbox November

9 3.2 PMI: GLOBAL PMI 65 Global MT orders 120 Eurozone 60 MT orders 73,7 54, ,7 50 Nov 10 Oct 10 Sep 10 Aug 10 July 10 Jun 10 May 10 Apr 10 Mar 10 Feb 10 Jan 10 Dec 09 Nov 09 Oct 09 Sept 09 Aug 09 Jul 09 Jun 09 May 09 Apr 09 Mar 09 Feb 09 Jan 09 Dec 08 Nov 08 Oct Source: Markit Economics and national data CECIMO Statistical Toolbox November

10 3.2 PMI: EUROPE PMI 63 59, ,6 54, , Nov 10 Oct 10 Sep 10 Aug 10 July 10 Jun 10 May 10 Apr 10 Mar 10 Feb 10 Jan 10 Dec 09 Nov 09 Oct 09 Sept 09 Aug 09 Jul 09 Jun 09 May 09 Apr 09 Mar 09 Feb 09 Jan 09 Dec 08 Nov 08 Oct 08 Eurozone Germany Italy Spain Switzerland Source: Markit Economics CECIMO Statistical Toolbox November

11 3.2 PMI: ASIA 65 PMI 59 57,2 54, , ,2 46,7 41 China India Japan S. Korea Taiwan Nov 10 Oct 10 Sep 10 Aug 10 July 10 Jun 10 May 10 Apr 10 Mar 10 Feb 10 Jan 10 Dec 09 Nov 09 Oct 09 Sept 09 Aug 09 Jul 09 Jun 09 May 09 Apr 09 Mar 09 Feb 09 Jan 09 Dec 08 Nov 08 Oct 08 Source: Markit Economics CECIMO Statistical Toolbox November

12 4 MT-IX 3 MT-IX (index 100 = January 2005) MT orders (Index 100 = 2005) There is a 84% correlation between MTIX 12 month moving average and CECIMO orders CECIMO MTIX CECIMO orders CECIMO MTIX 12-month moving average GLOBAL MTIX Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 July-08 April-08 Jan-08 Oct-07 July-07 April-07 Jan-07 Oct-06 July-06 Apr-06 Jan-06 Oct-05 Jul-05 Apr-05 Jan-05 Oct-04 Jul-04 apr-04 Jan-04 Oct-03 jul-03 apr-03 Jan-03 Oct-02 jul-02 apr-02 Jan-02 Oct-01 jul-01 apr-01 Jan-01 CECIMO weighted market capitalisation = 44% of the global market capitalization of 24 Machine Tool companies (this being the global market share of the production of machine tools in CECIMO) Source: Bloomberg and CECIMO calculations CECIMO Statistical Toolbox November

CECIMO Statistical Toolbox

CECIMO Statistical Toolbox European Association of the Machine Tool Industries Where manufacturing begins In this edition: 0 Introduction 1 Machine tool orders 1.1 CECIMO orders 1.2 Peter Meier s forecast CECIMO Statistical Toolbox

More information

CECIMO Statistical Toolbox January 2016

CECIMO Statistical Toolbox January 2016 CECIMO Statistical Toolbox European Association of the Machine Tool Industries Table of content Introduction 1 Data specific to the European machine tool market 1.1 CECIMO8 orders 1.2 Peter Meier s forecast

More information

CECIMO Statistical Toolbox

CECIMO Statistical Toolbox European Association of the Machine Tool Industries Where manufacturing begins In this edition: 0 Introduction 1 Machine tool orders 1.1 CECIMO orders 1.2 Peter Meier s forecast CECIMO Statistical Toolbox

More information

CECIMO Statistical Toolbox

CECIMO Statistical Toolbox European Association of the Machine Tool Industries Where manufacturing begins In this edition: 0 Introduction 1 Machine tool orders 1.1 CECIMO orders 1.2 Peter Meier s forecast CECIMO Statistical Toolbox

More information

CECIMO Statistical Toolbox August 2015

CECIMO Statistical Toolbox August 2015 CECIMO Statistical Toolbox August 2015 European Association of the Machine Tool Industries Table of content Introduction 1 Data specific to the European machine tool market 1.1 CECIMO orders 1.2 Peter

More information

CECIMO Statistical Toolbox March 2016

CECIMO Statistical Toolbox March 2016 CECIMO Statistical Toolbox European Association of the Machine Tool Industries Table of content Introduction 1 Data specific to the European machine tool market 1.1 CECIMO8 orders 1.2 Peter Meier s forecast

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. February 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. February 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch February 2018 Eurozone: Strong growth continues in 1Q18, but confidence seems to peak GDP growth moderated slightly in, but there was an upward revision to previous quarters. Available

More information

Eurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017

Eurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 EUROZONE WATCH FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone: A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections The recovery proceeded at a steady and solid pace in, resulting in an

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch

Eurozone Economic Watch BBVA Research - Global Economic Watch December 2018 / 1 Eurozone Economic Watch December 2018 Eurozone GDP growth still slows gradually, but high uncertainty could take its toll GDP growth could grow by

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch

Eurozone Economic Watch BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 1 Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 Eurozone: Growth to recover in 4Q18, but concerns about the slowdown next year are growing Eurozone GDP growth

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover

More information

B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook

B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy

More information

2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch

2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch 2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch December 3 rd 2015 Jim Power Global Background US & UK growing at reasonable pace Euro Zone growing well below potential Emerging markets in some

More information

OUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc.

OUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc. OUTLOOK 2014/2015 BMO Asset Management Inc. We would like to take this opportunity to provide our capital markets outlook for the remainder of 2014 and the first half of 2015 and our recommended asset

More information

Economic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute

Economic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute November 2018 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable

More information

The real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.

The real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter. QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter of 2007, growing at an annual rate of 3.4% Q/Q (+1.8% Y/Y), according to the GDP advance estimates

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. March 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. March 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone: The moderation of confidence continues We expect GDP growth to remain steady early this year supported mostly by strong global

More information

Economic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute

Economic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute October 2017 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic

More information

World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by

World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy OUTLOOK FOR WORLD S MAJOR FINANCIAL MARKETS The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy Presentation given by Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, President MSI

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. November 2017

Eurozone Economic Watch. November 2017 Eurozone Economic Watch November 2017 Eurozone: improved outlook, still subdued inflation Our MICA-BBVA model for growth estimates for the moment a quarterly GDP figure of around -0.7% in, after % QoQ

More information

1.1. Low yield environment

1.1. Low yield environment 1. Key developments Overall, the macroeconomic outlook has deteriorated since June 215. Although many European countries continue to recover, economic growth still remains fragile reflecting high public

More information

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. May 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. May 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch May 2018 BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Eurozone: more moderate growth with higher uncertainty The eurozone GDP growth slowed in more than expected. Beyond temporary

More information

EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017

EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017 EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017 Key messages: some changes for the better Improving confidence in across the board shows the resilience of the eurozone to the various potentially disturbing political

More information

China Economic Outlook 2013

China Economic Outlook 2013 China Economic Outlook 2 Key Developments in Brief - Mild recovery of GDP growth: +8 8.5% - Construction and consumption as main drivers - Inflationary pressure to increase: +3% - Tight labor market and

More information

The real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.

The real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter. QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2007, growing at the fastest pace in more than a year. According the final estimates released

More information

The External Environment for Developing Countries

The External Environment for Developing Countries d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries January 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group

More information

Global growth weakening as some risks materialise

Global growth weakening as some risks materialise OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Global growth weakening as some risks materialise 6 March 2019 Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE blog: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com

More information

Short-term indicators and Updated Forecasts. Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016

Short-term indicators and Updated Forecasts. Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016 Short-term indicators and Updated Forecasts Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016 EUROZONE WATCH NOVEMBER 2016 Key messages: resilience and unchanged projections The moderate pace of economic growth continued in the

More information

BDO MONTHLY BUSINESS TRENDS INDICES April Copyright BDO LLP. All rights reserved.

BDO MONTHLY BUSINESS TRENDS INDICES April Copyright BDO LLP. All rights reserved. BDO MONTHLY BUSINESS TRENDS INDICES April 2017 Copyright BDO LLP. All rights reserved. INTRODUCTION The BDO Monthly Trends Indices are polls of polls that pull together the results of all the main UK business

More information

DEVELOPMENTS IN THE COST COMPETITIVENESS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN MAIN FEATURES

DEVELOPMENTS IN THE COST COMPETITIVENESS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN MAIN FEATURES DEVELOPMENTS IN THE COST COMPETITIVENESS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN MAIN FEATURES The euro against major international currencies: During the second quarter of 2000, the US dollar,

More information

NBS MoNthly BulletiN NoveMBer 2016

NBS MoNthly BulletiN NoveMBer 2016 Published by: Národná banka Slovenska Address: Národná banka Slovenska Imricha Karvaša 1, 813 5 Bratislava Slovakia Contact: +1//5787 1 http://www.nbs.sk Discussed by the Bank Board on November. All rights

More information

Three-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World

Three-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below

More information

Part. Situation and Economic Indicators of SMEs in 2012 and 2013

Part. Situation and Economic Indicators of SMEs in 2012 and 2013 Part 01 Situation and Economic Indicators of SMEs in 2012 and 2013 Chapter 1 + Gross Domestic Product of SMEs 1 Gross Domestic Product of SMEs The overall gross domestic product (GDP) of 2012 expanded

More information

Snapshot of SA Economy

Snapshot of SA Economy Snapshot of SA Economy Kgotso Radira 1 September 29 Economic Outlook Global share indices 2 Indices 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 25 26 27 28 29 S&P 5 FTSE 1 DAX Nikkei 3 Global interest rates 7 % 6 5 4 3 2 1 1999

More information

Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents

Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors

More information

HKU announces 2015 Q2 HK Macroeconomic Forecast

HKU announces 2015 Q2 HK Macroeconomic Forecast Press Release HKU announces 2015 Q2 HK Macroeconomic Forecast April 9, 2015 1 Overview The APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong

More information

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 1 st quarter 2018

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 1 st quarter 2018 Portuguese Banking System: latest developments 1 st quarter 218 Lisbon, 218 www.bportugal.pt Prepared with data available up to 27 th June of 218. Macroeconomic indicators and banking system data are quarterly

More information

China Economic Update Q1 2015

China Economic Update Q1 2015 Key Developments in Brief Economic development Growth drivers Risks GDP growth slows to 7. Slowdown challenging, but manageable More easing policies expected Reforms progressing slowly Services and retail

More information

UniCredit Eurozone Economist Toolbox

UniCredit Eurozone Economist Toolbox UniCredit Eurozone Economist Toolbox Aurelio Maccario Chief Eurozone Economist - UniCredit Group UniCredit Group Research aurelio.maccario@unicreditgroup.de Florence, 03 April 2009 GDP Tracker: Sharp GDP

More information

Zenith Monthly Economic Report October 2011

Zenith Monthly Economic Report October 2011 Zenith Monthly Economic Report October 211 ECONOMIC STATISTICS SUMMARY Cash Rate Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) GDP Annual Growth (%) Country Latest Last Change Latest Change Latest Change Past

More information

Executive Board meeting. 14 December 2011

Executive Board meeting. 14 December 2011 Executive Board meeting December EU measures ECB Key policy rate has been reduced to. percent Measures: Liquidity operation with a maturity of months Reserve requirements reduced from to per cent Reduced

More information

Financial Analysts Meeting. 4 th November 2010

Financial Analysts Meeting. 4 th November 2010 Financial Analysts Meeting 4 th November EH world macro economic scenario -2011 World economy has registered a clear rebound World GDP rebounded by +5,8% between Q1- and Q2-. with a strong upturn of world

More information

B-GUIDE: Market Outlook

B-GUIDE: Market Outlook Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 1 2018 on 5 th January 2018 Investment Outlook for 1 st Quarter 2018 Accelerating Global Economy Supports the Rising Earnings Equity Thailand US Europe Japan Asia Bond

More information

HKU announces 2015 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast

HKU announces 2015 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast Press Release HKU announces 2015 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast July 7, 2015 1 Overview The APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong

More information

NBS MoNthly BulletiN december 2017

NBS MoNthly BulletiN december 2017 Published by: Národná banka Slovenska Address: Národná banka Slovenska Imricha Karvaša 1, 81 Bratislava Slovakia Contact: +1//787 1 http://www.nbs.sk Discussed by the Bank Board on 19 December 17. All

More information

Chapter 1 International economy

Chapter 1 International economy Chapter International economy. Main points from the OECD's Economic Outlook A broad-based recovery has taken hold Asia, the US and the UK have taken the lead. Continental Europe will follow Investment

More information

Quarterly Report. April June 2015

Quarterly Report. April June 2015 April June August 12, 1 1 Outline 1 2 Monetary Policy External Conditions 3 Economic Activity in Mexico Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks April-June 2 Monetary Policy Conduction in

More information

Economic Outlook Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015

Economic Outlook Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015 Economic Outlook 2016 Economic Intelligence Center 27 th November 2015 Global outlook Domestic outlook 2 In 2016, recovery pace in most regions are expected to pick up except for China Eurozone 2.0 1.5

More information

PROJECT LINK FALL MEETING NEW YORK, OCTOBER 2015 COUNTRY REPORT : SWITZERLAND

PROJECT LINK FALL MEETING NEW YORK, OCTOBER 2015 COUNTRY REPORT : SWITZERLAND PROJECT LINK FALL MEETING NEW YORK, OCTOBER 2015 COUNTRY REPORT : SWITZERLAND Délia NILLES 1 1. Recent Trends and Selected Key Forecasts 1.1 Recent trends Switzerland's real GDP grew by 1.9% in 2014, but

More information

PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012

PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012 PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 1 Working paper, September 1. Kindly authorized by the Author.

More information

Recent Recent Developments 0

Recent Recent Developments 0 Recent Developments 0 Global activity has slowed noticeably World Trade (annualized percent change of three month moving average over previous three month moving average) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

More information

CECIMO Statistical Toolbox

CECIMO Statistical Toolbox European Association of the Machine Tool Industries where manufacturing begins Inside this edition... 0 Executive Summary CECIMO Statistical Toolbox July 2010 Edition 1 Machine Tool Orders 1.1 Orders per

More information

Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund

Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord

More information

> Macro Investment Outlook

> Macro Investment Outlook > Macro Investment Outlook Dr Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist October 214 The challenge for investors how to find better yield and returns as bank deposit rates stay low 9

More information

Inflation projection of Narodowy Bank Polski based on the NECMOD model

Inflation projection of Narodowy Bank Polski based on the NECMOD model Economic Institute Inflation projection of Narodowy Bank Polski based on the NECMOD model Warsaw / 9 March Inflation projection of the NBP based on the NECMOD model Outline: Introduction Changes between

More information

Economic outlook for Euro & talous (Bank of Finland Bulletin) 5/2013 Governor Erkki Liikanen 12 December 2013

Economic outlook for Euro & talous (Bank of Finland Bulletin) 5/2013 Governor Erkki Liikanen 12 December 2013 Economic outlook for 2013 2015 Euro & talous (Bank of Finland Bulletin) 5/2013 Governor Erkki Liikanen 12 December 2013 1 Positive signals from the international economy 12.12.2013 Governor Erkki Liikanen

More information

Latest economic developments in Greece and Challenges for the Trade Finance Market

Latest economic developments in Greece and Challenges for the Trade Finance Market Latest economic developments in Greece and Challenges for the Trade Finance Market Peter Sanfey Deputy Director, Country Economics and Policy, EBRD 15 September 216, Bank of Greece, Athens The Greek economy:

More information

ECFIN/C-1 Fourth quarter 2000

ECFIN/C-1 Fourth quarter 2000 ECFIN/C-1 Fourth quarter 2000 ECFIN/44/4/00-EN This document exists in English only. European Communities, 2001. MAIN FEATURES During the fourth quarter of 2000, the euro appreciated against the US dollar,

More information

2018 MACRO OVERVIEW. More of the Same, Yet Less of the Same. March 9, 2018

2018 MACRO OVERVIEW. More of the Same, Yet Less of the Same. March 9, 2018 2018 MACRO OVERVIEW More of the Same, Yet Less of the Same March 9, 2018 RICHARD FARR MERION CAPITAL GROUP 484-436-4764 rfarr@merioncapitalgroup.com Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09

More information

Please scroll to find the 2018 and 2019 global fund holiday calendars.

Please scroll to find the 2018 and 2019 global fund holiday calendars. Please scroll to find the 2018 and 2019 global fund holiday calendars. 2018 Exchange-Traded fund holiday Vanguard Ireland-domiciled ETFs Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1 2 5 12 15 25 9 12 14 15 16 19 28 20 29

More information

Latin America: the shadow of China

Latin America: the shadow of China Latin America: the shadow of China Juan Ruiz BBVA Research Chief Economist for South America Latin America Outlook Second Quarter Madrid, 13 May Latin America Outlook / May Key messages 1 2 3 4 5 The global

More information

SEPTEMBER Overview

SEPTEMBER Overview Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).

More information

FOR RELEASE: 10:00 A.M. (MUMBAI TIME), NOVEMBER 24, 2015

FOR RELEASE: 10:00 A.M. (MUMBAI TIME), NOVEMBER 24, 2015 FOR RELEASE: 10:00 A.M. (MUMBAI TIME), NOVEMBER 24, 2015 The Conference Board India Business Cycle Indicators SM THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (LEI) FOR INDIA AND RELATED COMPOSITE ECONOMIC

More information

Non-standard monetary policy in the euro area Economics Roundtable discussion (8 September 2017)

Non-standard monetary policy in the euro area Economics Roundtable discussion (8 September 2017) Non-standard monetary policy in the euro area Economics Roundtable discussion (8 September 2017) Gillian Phelan Outline Monetary policy action Interest rate policy Non-standard measures Monetary policy

More information

GIMA Pulse Date of Report: 04/12/2017 a monthly snapshot of the UK Economy from

GIMA Pulse Date of Report: 04/12/2017 a monthly snapshot of the UK Economy from GIMA Pulse Date of Report: 04/12/2017 a monthly snapshot of the UK Economy from www.barometeroftrade.com Summary Inflation has slowed after reaching a 5-year-high last month, largely due to the weak performance

More information

Monthly Economic Report

Monthly Economic Report Monthly Economic Report April 19, 2018 Copyright Mizuho Research Institute Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 1. The Japanese Economy: the business conditions DI deteriorated; FY2018 fixed investment plans were

More information

Weekly Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary November 18, 2014 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging Burt White Chief Investment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist

More information

The External Environment for Developing Countries

The External Environment for Developing Countries d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group

More information

RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003

RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003 OCTOBER 23 RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK MEDIUM-TERM CHALLENGES 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In tandem with the global economic cycle, the Mexican

More information

Previsions Macroeconòmiques. Macroeconomic scenario for the Catalan economy 2017 and June 2017

Previsions Macroeconòmiques. Macroeconomic scenario for the Catalan economy 2017 and June 2017 PM Previsions Macroeconòmiques Macroeconomic scenario for the Catalan economy 2017 and 2018 June 2017 Previsions macroeconòmiques Macroeconomic scenario for the Catalan economy June 2017 ISSN: 2013-2182

More information

Economic activity gathers pace

Economic activity gathers pace Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Economic activity gathers pace Positive data flow Recovery broadening out GDP growth revised up to

More information

FOR RELEASE: 10:00 A.M. AEST, THURSDAY, APRIL 30, 2009

FOR RELEASE: 10:00 A.M. AEST, THURSDAY, APRIL 30, 2009 FOR RELEASE: 10:00 A.M. AEST, THURSDAY, APRIL 30, 2009 The Conference Board Australia Business Cycle Indicators SM THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (LEI) FOR AUSTRALIA AND RELATED COMPOSITE

More information

BDO MONTHLY BUSINESS TRENDS INDICES April Copyright BDO LLP. All rights reserved.

BDO MONTHLY BUSINESS TRENDS INDICES April Copyright BDO LLP. All rights reserved. BDO MONTHLY BUSINESS TRENDS INDICES April 2014 Copyright BDO LLP. All rights reserved. INTRODUCTION The BDO Monthly Trends Indices are polls of polls that pull together the results of all the main UK business

More information

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,

More information

NBS MoNthly BulletiN february 2017

NBS MoNthly BulletiN february 2017 Published by: Národná banka Slovenska Address: Národná banka Slovenska Imricha Karvaša 1, 813 5 Bratislava Slovakia Contact: +41//5787 146 http://www.nbs.sk All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational

More information

NBS MoNthly BulletiN december 2016

NBS MoNthly BulletiN december 2016 Published by: Národná banka Slovenska Address: Národná banka Slovenska Imricha Karvaša 1, 813 5 Bratislava Slovakia Contact: +1//5787 1 http://www.nbs.sk Discussed by the Bank Board on December 1. All

More information

The Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence

The Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence The Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence Dr. Il SaKong Special Economic Advisor Adviser to the President Republic of Korea November 17, 17, 2008 November 17, 2008 1. Recent Macroeconomic Developments

More information

Economic & Financial Indicators. November Banco de Cabo Verde

Economic & Financial Indicators. November Banco de Cabo Verde Economic & Financial Indicators November Banco de Cabo Verde Monetary Policy Report BANCO DE CABO VERDE Department of Economic Studies and Statistics Avenida Amílcar Cabral, 27 CP 7600-101 - Praia - Cabo

More information

The Cyprus Economy: from Recovery to Sustainable Growth. Vincenzo Guzzo Resident Representative in Cyprus

The Cyprus Economy: from Recovery to Sustainable Growth. Vincenzo Guzzo Resident Representative in Cyprus The Economy: from Recovery to Sustainable Growth Vincenzo Guzzo Resident Representative in Growth momentum remains strong 18 : Real GDP ( billion) 1 Deviation from Pre-Crisis Level and Trend (Percent)

More information

Improved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year

Improved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year ECONOMIC REPORT Business & Consumer Confidence 17 April 2018 Improved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year MIER s CSI rebounded to 3.5-year high. Underpin by

More information

SUMMARY OF MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

SUMMARY OF MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS SUMMARY OF MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS NOVEMBER 2018 2 Summary of macroeconomic developments, November 2018 Indicators of global economic activity suggest a continuation of solid growth in the final quarter

More information

GLOBAL FIXED INCOME OVERVIEW

GLOBAL FIXED INCOME OVERVIEW 2016 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing GLOBAL FIXED INCOME OVERVIEW Edward A. Wiese, CFA, Head of Fixed Income November 18, 2015 Global Fixed Income Outlook: Summary Environment Developed market yields

More information

BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook

BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook 7 March 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW March 2018 BNM MPC BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook Overnight Policy Rate maintained at 3.25%. In line with our expectation, overnight policy rate,

More information

Potential Gains from the Reform Package

Potential Gains from the Reform Package Chart 1 Potential Gains from the Reform Package GDP per capita, % 18 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 Ireland Germany Finland Portugal Spain France Greece Note: The estimated cumulative GDP impact from structural reforms

More information

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018 7 December 8 Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets T he monetary board of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas decided to keep its key policy rates steady during its final meeting for the year on

More information

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Nonfarm Payroll Employment PRESIDENT'S REPORT TO THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON Current Economic Developments - June 10, 2004 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show the economy continues to

More information

FOR RELEASE: 10:00 A.M. (BRUSSELS TIME), MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2010

FOR RELEASE: 10:00 A.M. (BRUSSELS TIME), MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2010 FOR RELEASE: 10:00 A.M. (BRUSSELS TIME), MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2010 The Conference Board Euro Area Business Cycle Indicators SM THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (LEI) FOR THE EURO AREA AND RELATED

More information

MULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2

MULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2 10 2 3 6 8 9 13 14 MULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2 Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous weight weight weight weight weight

More information

MONTHLY BANKING MONITOR

MONTHLY BANKING MONITOR TURKEY MONTHLY BANKING MONITOR NOVEMBER DECEMBER 7TH Global Developments Financial stress for EM rose in November, due to US elections and increase in the probability of a Fed rate hike in December BBVA

More information

The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects

The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects Dr. Jacob A. Frenkel Chairman & CEO Group of Thirty (G30).Bank Indonesia 7th Annual International Seminar Global Financial Tsunami: What Can We

More information

DEVELOPMENTS IN THE COST COMPETITIVENESS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN MAIN FEATURES

DEVELOPMENTS IN THE COST COMPETITIVENESS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN MAIN FEATURES DEVELOPMENTS IN THE COST COMPETITIVENESS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN MAIN FEATURES The euro against major international currencies: During the first quarter of 2001, the euro appreciated

More information

ABI MONTHLY REPORT 1 January 2017 (Main evidence)

ABI MONTHLY REPORT 1 January 2017 (Main evidence) ABI MONTHLY REPORT 1 January 2017 (Main evidence) LOANS AND DEPOSITS 1. At the end of 2016, loans to customers granted by banks operating in Italy, totalling 1,807.7 billion euro (cf. Table 1) was nearly

More information

Zenith Monthly Economic Report December 2011

Zenith Monthly Economic Report December 2011 Zenith Monthly Economic Report December 211 ECONOMIC STATISTICS SUMMARY Cash Rate Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) GDP Annual Growth (%) Country Latest Last Change Latest Change Latest Change Past

More information

Economic and Housing Outlook

Economic and Housing Outlook Economic and Housing Outlook Macdonald Realty Monday, January 23, 212 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: European developments U.S. economy and forecasts Canadian economic

More information

Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy and the MENA Region

Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy and the MENA Region Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy and the MENA Region Ministry of Finance Cairo October 25, 2011 Andreas Bauer Division i i Chief, t International Monetary Fund Key points: The global outlook

More information

Second estimate for the third quarter of 2008 EU27 current account deficit 39.5 bn euro 19.3 bn euro surplus on trade in services

Second estimate for the third quarter of 2008 EU27 current account deficit 39.5 bn euro 19.3 bn euro surplus on trade in services STAT/09/12 22 January 2009 Second estimate for the third quarter of 20 EU27 current account deficit 39.5 bn euro 19.3 bn euro surplus on trade in According to the latest revisions1, the EU272 external

More information

BDO MONTHLY BUSINESS TRENDS INDICES November Copyright BDO LLP. All rights reserved.

BDO MONTHLY BUSINESS TRENDS INDICES November Copyright BDO LLP. All rights reserved. BDO MONTHLY BUSINESS TRENDS INDICES November Copyright BDO LLP. All rights reserved. INTRODUCTION The BDO Monthly Trends Indices are polls of polls that pull together the results of all the main UK business

More information

Global PMI. Solid Q2 growth masks widening growth differentials. July 7 th IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Global PMI. Solid Q2 growth masks widening growth differentials. July 7 th IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Global PMI Solid Q2 growth masks widening growth differentials July 7 th 2017 2 Widening developed and emerging world growth trends The global economy enjoyed further steady growth in June, according to

More information