National Asset-Liability Management, Johannesburg

Transcription

1 [Special Mention] National Asset-Liability Management, Johannesburg Gary Smith, Global Head of Official Institutions 25 th 26 th November 2010

2 A Fragile Equilibrium "Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance you must keep moving" Albert Einstein Source: Public Domain - Albert Einstein - April

3 A Fragile Equilibrium Source: Internet September

4 To The Rescue? Source: Nov

5 Core US Price Indices 6

6 Expectations Have Had Limited Effect - Core CPI Versus UOM 3.5 UoM 5yr-Ahead Inflation Expectations Core CPI (% y/y)

7 Private Hiring Continued At Sub Par Pace Private Payrolls (Chg, m/m, k) 125k = Stable UR mma -900 Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May

8 Slow Final Demand Recovery Final Demand as a Share of Cycle Peak Cycle Peak = Quarters Since Peak

9 No Demand For New Housing 10

10 Vladimir The Action Man; (and the importance of being seen to be doing something) Source: Nov

11 Eurozone Industry Orders And Output Manufacturing PMI: New Orders (Lagged 2Mths) Industrial Orders (% y/y, Smoothed RHS)

12 Cautious Consumers Mean EC Consumer Survey: Future Purchasing Intentions

13 Who the hell is going to apply the brakes?! Source: - Nov

14 Wide Sovereign Yield Spreads Jul 10-Year Government Bond Yield Spreads vs Germany (%) Nov 07 Mar Jul Nov 08 Portugal Mar Jul Nov 09 Greece Ireland Mar Jul Nov

15 Europe s Web of Debt Source: Bank for International Settlements The New YorK Times: Published May, 1,

16 Nominal GDP Growth Minus Policy Rate (%) 17

17 Taylor Rule for Rates (%) Ireland Taylor Rule Spain Taylor Rule ECB Refi

18 Excess Policy Tightness / Accommodation (%)* Policy Loose Policy Tight Spain Ireland

19 Disclaimer Gary Smith, Global Head of Official Institutions Tel: +44 (0) This document is issued by BNP Paribas Investment Partners U.K. Ltd (BNPP IP UK)*, a member of BNP Paribas Investment Partners (BNPP IP)**, and is produced for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy nor a solicitation to sell, nor shall it form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever or be taken as investment advice. The information contained in this document is provided without prior knowledge of your circumstances, including your financial position, risk profile and investment objectives, and does not constitute a personal recommendation nor investment advice. Investors are recommended to seek the advice of their usual financial adviser in order to assess the suitability of a financial product as an investment. Performance figures (non-composites), when shown, are stated net of fees and are calculated according to time-weighted total returns with net dividends and interest reinvested except for the benchmark. Performance composites, when shown, are gross of fees and size-weighted and include all similarly managed accounts. Descriptions of all composites are available upon request. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Given the economic and market risks, there can be no assurance that any investment strategy or strategies mentioned herein will achieve its/their investment objectives. Returns are affected by, among other things, advisory or other expenses that may be incurred in the management of an investment account, the investment limitations and restrictions of the portfolio, applicable regulations and economic conditions. The value of an investment account may be decline as well as rise. Investors may not get back the amount they originally invested. Opinions included in this document constitute the judgement of BNPP IP UK at the time specified and may be subject to change without notice, they are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by any recipient and are not intended to provide the sole basis of evaluation of any strategy or instrument discussed herein. Investors should consult their own legal and tax advisors prior to investing in any financial products. This document is directed only at person(s) who have professional experience in matters relating to investments ( relevant persons ). Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to and will be engaged in only with Professional Clients as defined in the rules of the Financial Services Authority. Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this document or any of its contents. *BNPP IP UK is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, with its registered office at 5 Aldermanbury Square, London EC2V 7BP (Company No ). ** BNP Paribas Investment Partners is the global brand name of BNP Paribas group s asset management services. The individual asset management entities within BNP Paribas Investment Partners are specified herein for information only and do not necessarily carry on business in your jurisdiction. For further information, please contact your locally licensed Investment Partner. 20