Is there still value in Irish Real Estate?

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Is there still value in Irish Real Estate?"

Thomasina Turner
6 years ago
Views:

Belfast, 17 th October 214 214 Investment

2 Today s focus Risk, Return and Reward Introduction Risk Competitiveness of Irish real estate versus mainstream assets Volatility of the UK and Irish markets Pricing of Real Estate Return Recent trends in the Global, UK and Irish markets: Northern Ireland Consultative Index Focus on offices the most volatile and reactive sector Reward Value and opportunity in a fast recovering market: Dublin offices # 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 2

Reinforcement of Real Estate as the favoured Alternative Allocations to Real Estate Are Increasing Alternative

UK UK USA Increased Investment, globally IPD Global Coverage growth 213 Note: Based on 138 asset owners in Survey

Sources: IPD; MSCI 125 12 115 11 15 1 95 9 85 8 213 Global Coverage Growth +5.7 12.88 +12.54 1 +2.

3 Reinforcement of Real Estate as the favoured Alternative Allocations to Real Estate Are Increasing Alternative Allocations end Improving performance IPD Returns % y/y Europe ex. UK UK USA Increased Investment, globally IPD Global Coverage growth 213 Note: Based on 138 asset owners in Survey Universe. Calculated on % of real estate assets in each category, not number of asset owners. Sources: IPD; MSCI Global Coverage Growth End of 212 Performance Investment Composition End of 213 # 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 3

8 Irish real estate versus other assets 35 Annualised Total Return, % 14 Standard Deviation year 5 year 12 year year 5 year 12 year Equities JP Morgan Bonds Real Estate Inflation, MSCI, Ecowin 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 8

9 Risk and Return in the UK and Irish Markets Return, % year-on-year Average 12 year return Volatility UK Ireland Eurozone Europe Global 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 9

10 Standard Deviation 5-Year Rolling Cycles Volatility in the UK and Irish markets subsides Adjusted for 5-year rolling to represent average funding cycles Ireland: All Property LTA UK: All Property LTA Ireland: All Property UK: All Property 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 1

11 Standard Deviation 5-Year Rolling Cycles Volatility in the UK and Irish markets subsides Adjusted for 5-year rolling to represent average funding cycles 3 NAMA Established UK Double-Dip 1 5 Market Peak Ireland: All Property LTA UK: All Property LTA Ireland: All Property UK: All Property 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 11

12 Standard Deviation 5-Year Rolling Cycles On a segment level performance rebound is stronger Adjusted for 5-year rolling to represent average funding cycles Central Dublin: Retail Central Dublin: Offices Central London: Retail Central London: Offices Ireland: All Property LTA UK: All Property LTA 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 12

13 Standard Deviation 5-Year Rolling Cycles Income Return % Year-on-Year But has income return compensated for this volatility? Central Dublin: Retail Ireland: All Property LTA Central Dublin: Retail Income Return Central Dublin: Offices Central Dublin: Offices Income Return 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 13

14 Recovering markets offer strong spreads for real estate 1-Year Bond to Real Estate Equivalent Yield Spread bps UK Ireland Spain USA France Germany Portugal Italy Sweden Netherlands Norway Switzerland Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 14

15 ...but peripheral eurozone economies remain diverse 1-Year Bond to Real Estate Equivalent Yield Spread bps Ireland Spain France Italy Portugal Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 15

Total Return by Market, % pa Global real estate performance, 213 All Property Total Return in 213 (% year-on-year) 2 2 4 1 4 6 7 7 1 2 6 4 2 1 2 6 2 1 1 5 5 8 2 2 6 24 6 Source: IPD Note: The number

17 Total Return by Market, % pa Global real estate performance, 213 All Property Total Return in 213 (% year-on-year) Source: IPD Note: The number on the top of each bar denote the change from the 212 ranking. Numbers in blue denote moving up in the rank, red means down, black means unchanged. 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 17

18 Ireland and UK lead performance with strong rebound All Property Total Return in 213 (% year-on-year) Ireland 12.7 UK 1.7 Above 1% Between 7.5% and 1% Between 5% and 7.5% Between 2.5 and 5% Below 2.5% Source: IPD 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 18

19 Core markets also saw an improvement All Property Total Return in 213 (% year-on-year) Germany 5.2 Above 1% Between 7.5% and 1% Between 5% and 7.5% Between 2.5 and 5% France 5.1 Below 2.5% Source: IPD 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 19

20 But periphery still lags, but returns now positive All Property Total Return in 213 (% year-on-year) Above 1% Spain.3 Between 7.5% and 1% Between 5% and 7.5% Between 2.5 and 5% Below 2.5% Portugal Italy Source: IPD 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 2

21 213: Office Total Return Map Source: IPD Global Intel, IPD UK Quarterly Property Index, OECD Dublin 19.4 Edinburgh 11.4 Manchester Birmingham London 15.9 London Office: Q2 214 Current Total Return* Income Return** Bond Spread*** 1-yr average * Total Return (% y/y) ** Income Return (% y/y) *** Income return spread to 1-yr Govt. bond yield 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 21

22 213: Office Total Return Map Source: IPD Global Intel, IPD UK Quarterly Property Index, OECD Dublin 19.4 Current Edinburgh Manchester Birmingham London 15.9 Dublin Office: Q2 214 Total Return* Income Return** Bond Spread*** 1-yr average * Total Return (% y/y) ** Income Return (% y/y) *** Income return spread to 1-yr Govt. bond yield 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 22

23 IPD Investment Analysis for Northern Ireland IPD Bespoke Sample as at 31 st December % Majority of properties located in Greater Belfast; 66% Belfast Comparable focus will be on Belfast Retail and Belfast Offices as these locations have the longest data history. Rest of Northern Ireland DPSI Only No. of Properties Value m % of Total Value All Property Belfast All Property Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 23

24 Northern Ireland Investment Performance Total Return on a year-over-year basis Total Return, % year-on-year As per the IPD Northern Ireland Sample 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 24

25 Northern Ireland Investment Performance Total Return on a year-over-year basis Total Return, % year-on-year As per the IPD Northern Ireland Sample 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 25

26 Drivers of Total Return in Northern Ireland NI All Property: Drivers of total return on a year-over-year basis 3 Return, % year-on-year Income Return Rental Value Growth Yield Impact Total Return 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 26

27 Index Value (Shaded Area) 1 = 22 % Total Return, 12-month rolling Where do we stand? NI All Property Capital Values now at 1999 levels, falling further in 212 and Capital Value Index Total Return 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 27

28 How does Northern Ireland compare? All Property Drivers of Total return on a year-over-year basis Return, % year-on-year (Local Currency) 15 Income Return Capital Growth Total Return Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 28

29 How does Northern Ireland compare? All Property Drivers of Total return on a year-over-year basis Return, % year-on-year (Local Currency) 15 Income Return Capital Growth Total Return Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 29

30 ...and Belfast? All Property Drivers of Total return on a year-over-year basis Return, % year-on-year (Local Currency) 15 Income Return Capital Growth Total Return Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 3

31 ...and Belfast? All Property Drivers of Total return on a year-over-year basis Return, % year-on-year (Local Currency) 15 Income Return Capital Growth Total Return Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 31

33 % Quarterly Change Drivers of the Dublin Office Market Ireland All Property: Drivers of Total Return Mar-95 Mar-97 Mar-99 Mar-1 Mar-3 Mar-5 Mar-7 Mar-9 Mar-11 Mar-13 Income Return Rental Value Growth Yield Impact Total Return Ireland Quarterly Index 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 33

34 % Quarterly Change Dublin office rents are now driving growth, not yields Investor sentiment remains strong, but rents now driving value growth 14 6% -49% from Peak % 5% 4% 3% % Change from Peak 4 2% 2 1% Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 % Rental Value Growth % q/q % Decline from Peak 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 34

35 Yield % Spread % Risk spreads around income continue to narrow 1 3. Spread Reversionary Yield Equivalent Yield Long-term EqY Mar-95 Dec-96 Sep-98 Jun- Mar-2 Dec-3 Sep-5 Jun-7 Mar-9 Dec-1 Sep-12 juin Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 35

36 Income Return, % year-on-year..but Dublin remains attractively priced Income return is a proxy for tenant risk, with Dublin pricing still strong Amsterdam Barcelona Boston Chicago Dublin Edinburgh Frankfurt London Manchester San Francisco Stockholm Vienna 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 36

37 12-month rolling % change year-on-year What next for Dublin office rents? The recent crash was the severest and longest on record, but recent bounce-back outpacing previous recoveries Market Peak : 199 Market Peak: 27-3 Years from Capital Growth Peak 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 37

Thank you... IPD, Ninth Floor, 1 Bishop s Square, London EC1 6EG, UK Tel: +44 ()2 7336 92 ipd.

38 Thank you... IPD, Ninth Floor, 1 Bishop s Square, London EC1 6EG, UK Tel: +44 () ipd.com Intellectual Property Rights and use of IPD statistics as benchmarks Whether in the public domain or otherwise, IPD's statistics are the intellectual property of Investment Property Databank Limited. It is not permissible to use data drawn from this presentation as benchmarks. Investment Property Databank Limited (IPD) 213. Database Right, Investment Property Databank Limited (IPD) 213. All rights conferred by law of copyright and by virtue of international conventions are reserved by IPD. 214 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 38