Ireland Revenue Forum

Transcription

1 Ireland Revenue Forum 27 th June 2017 Sarah Duignan Director, Client 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

2 Your Contacts Aoife Roche Director, Account Management George Titlow Business Development Manager, UK & Ireland Sarah Duignan Director, Client Relationships Agnieszka Stopa Regional Account Manager, UK, Ireland & Poland

3 STR, collecting data since 1985 Performance Reports Occ, ADR, RevPAR Supply/Demand Revenue P&L Supply Reports Existing supply Future supply Pipeline Characteristics Forecast Reports Main KPIs Macro economic input Micro economic input 5 years/6 quarters/18 months STR Coverage Our Sample +57K Hotels +7.7M Hotel Rooms +182 Countries +2K Markets

4 STR Coverage Our Sample Hotels & Hotel Rooms, May K +4,206K +1.2K +187K +10.0K +1,372K K K +8.6K +1,617K Hotels Rooms

5 Global RevPAR % Change USD, Europe in EUR, Constant Currency, May 2017 YTD North America +3.3% Central America +4.4% Northern Africa +42.0% Europe +6.5% Middle East Asia -4.8% +2.4% South America -5.8% Southern Africa +4.5% Australia & Oceania +3.5%

6 Demand outpacing supply, for the most part Global Supply & Demand % Change May 2017 YTD Supply Demand 6.2% 5.0% 4.2% 5.1% 4.5% 5.4% 1.8% 2.5% 3.1% 2.0% 1.4% 3.0% 1.9% 2.4% 0.7% 0.8% North America & Caribbean Central America South America Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia & Oceania

7 Strong start to 2017 for Europe Europe Main KPIs EUR, CC, May 2017 YTD 67.7% Occupancy ADR RevPAR +3.4% +3.0% +6.5%

8 Europe Main KPIs % Change What s driving growth? EUR, CC, May 2017 YTD +6.5% +7.4% +4.2% +3.4% +3.0% +0.8% Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR Revenue

9 Dublin continues to offer good value for money European Cities Occupancy, ADR, RevPAR EUR, May 2017 YTD 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% ADR RevPAR Occupancy

10 A much better picture compared to this time last year Europe RevPAR % Change LC, May 2017 YTD Helsinki 4 9 St. Petersburg 18 Edinburgh 10 Copenhagen 0 Moscow Dublin 7 Amsterdam 9 London Brussels 5 Berlin Prague Warsaw 25 Kiev Paris Vienna Zurich Budapest 14 5 Bucharest Barcelona 14 Lisbon Madrid Rome 1 24 Belgrade 12 Athens -1 Istanbul

11 Ireland -Main KPIs EUR, CC, May 2017 YTD 73.2% Occupancy ADR RevPAR +1.5% +6.3% +7.8%

12 Ireland Main KPIs % Change What s driving growth? EUR, CC, May 2017 YTD +7.8% +8.6% +6.3% +0.7% +2.2% +1.5% Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR Revenue

13 Occupancy trending similarly across Ireland Monthly Occupancy January 2015 YTD May 2017 YTD 90% Ireland All Reg Ireland Dublin 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

14 Regional Ireland picking up the pace Monthly ADR EUR, January 2015 YTD May YTD 2017 Ireland All Reg Ireland Dublin Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

15 Irish Markets Occupancy, ADR, RevPAR EUR, YTD May 2017 ADR RevPAR Occupancy 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% STR. All Rights Reserved.

16 Irish Markets RevPAR % Change EUR, CC, May 2017 YTD NW Ireland +8.2% Sligo +4.4% Belfast +22.6% Dublin +6.5% Reg Ireland +9% Ireland +7.8% Leinster Reg +8.7% Kilkenny +12.4% Kerry +11.3% Munster Reg +11.9% Cork +5.5% 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

17 ADR % Chg Irish Markets Performance RevPAR positioning 2017 Occ and ADR % change May 2017 YTD Kerry Munster Regional Cork Dublin Ireland Ireland Regional Leinster Regional North West Ireland Kilkenny Occ % Chg

18 Dublin Supply, Demand % Change, RevPAR Actuals EUR, CC, May 2011 YTD May 2017 YTD Supply % change Demand % change RevPAR 15% % % 60 0% % 0

19 Dublin Monthly Occupancy January 2015 YTD May 2017 YTD 90% % 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% January February March April May June July August September October November December

20 Dublin Monthly ADR EUR,CC, January 2015 YTD May 2017 YTD EUR EUR 130 EUR 120 EUR 110 EUR 100 EUR 90 EUR 80 EUR 70 January February March April May June July August September October November December

21 Dublin YTD May 2017 EUR, CC, May 2017 YTD 78.3% Occupancy ADR RevPAR +0.7% +5.7% +6.5%

22 Dublin Main KPIs % Change What s driving growth? EUR, CC, May 2017 YTD +8.7% +5.7% +6.5% +2.0% +2.8% +0.7% Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR Revenue

23 Day Count Compression analysis Dublin May 2017 YTD % 19% <70 >=70<80 >=80<90 >=90 Occupancy (%) Day Count ADR (EUR)

24 Dublin & Regional Ireland Occ, ADR & RevPAR Dublin & Regional Ireland, ADR & RevPAR, 2013 May 2017 YTD ADR RevPAR Occupancy 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% %

25 Market Class Dublin & Regional Ireland - Occ, ADR & RevPAR RevPAR% change YOY EUR, May 2017 YTD Dublin Regional Ireland 90% 80% 70% % 50% % 30% % 50 10% 0% Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale & Economy Occ ADR RevPAR Luxury Class Upper Upscale Class RevPAR % change Upscale Class Upper Midscale Class Midscale & Economy Classes 0

26 Dublin & Belfast Occ, ADR & RevPAR Dublin & Belfast Occ, ADR & RevPAR, 2013 May 2017 YTD ADR RevPAR Occupancy 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% %

27 Market Class Dublin & Belfast - Occ, ADR & RevPAR RevPAR% change YOY EUR, May 2017 YTD Dublin Belfast 90% 80% 70% % 50% % 30% % 50 10% 0% Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale & Economy Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale & Economy 0 Occ ADR RevPAR RevPAR % change

28 Dublin Transient, Group and Contract RevPAR % Change Dublin May 2017 YTD % -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Contract Group Transient

29 Dublin submarkets Occupancy, ADR, RevPAR EUR, May 2017 YTD 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% ADR RevPAR Occupancy STR. All Rights Reserved.

30 Dublin submarkets Occ, ADR & RevPAR % change May 2017 YTD 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% Occupancy ADR RevPAR Dublin Airport Dublin City Centre Dublin surroundings 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.

31 Occupancy % Day of Week Analysis Actuals Dublin May 2017 YTD ADR (EUR) RevPAR (EUR) Occupancy

32 % Change Day of Week Analysis % Chg Dublin May 2017 YTD 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 8.1% 8.7% 9.3% 6.3% 7.2% 7.4% 6.5% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -1.3% -4.0% Occupancy ADR RevPAR

33 STR Forecast Methodology

34 Forecast Partners Tourism Economics Part of Oxford Economics Focus on quantitative analysis of the travel industry Custom market strategies, industry forecasts, policy analysis and economic impact studies. Oxford Economics has outperformed other macro forecasters Oxford Economics Forecast Performance compared (average absolute forecast divergence for real GDP growth) US Eurozone UK Japan Oxford Economics EIU Global Insight IMF OECD Consensus Economics Note: Forecast made in December for year ahead

35 STR Hotel Market Forecast Model Methodology Economic Drivers GDP - Market - Country - International Room Supply Occupancy Net Wealth Company Profits Unemployment Exchange Rate Inflation + Market Events Room Demand (Demand / Supply Ratio) ADR Dashed line indicates lagged relationship

36 Demand Model No 1 Factors influencing demand Dublin, May 17 Report Economics Drivers Events Reliability Seasonal Patterns

37 STR Forecast Model into practice ADR model

38 2017 Timeline March Article 50 Dutch Elections May Emmanuel Macron June Theresa May Leo Varadkar Aug-Oct German Elections FEB MAY AUG NOV Reports are updated 4 times a year (Feb, May, Aug, Nov) To keep track of changes in macroeconomic scenario

39 2017- Tourism arrivals are expected to grow Europe Forecast Arrivals and % change for % Ireland 10.7m (+1.7%) UK, US, DE, FR, ES UK 37.6m (+5.1%) FR, US, DE, IR, ES Portugal 11.7m (+4.5%) ES, UK, FR, DE, NE France 82.9m (2.2%) UK, DE, BE, IT, ES Germany 36.5m (+2.6%) NE, CH, US, UK, AU Italy 54.5m (+3.6%) DE, FR, UK, AU, CH Poland 18.0m (+17.2%) DE, UK, US, UA, RU

40 2017- Ireland: Top 5 Arrival Source Destinations Number of estimated international arrivals in thousands 6, % 5, , , , , % 3.4% 2.7% -1.3% 5,282 1, United Kingdom United States Germany France Spain Source: Tourism Economics

41 What to expect in 2017

42 Dublin occupancy to saturate, ADR to drive performance Annual ADR and Occupancy, , May 2017 Report Dublin Reg Ireland 2017 YTD % 65% 75% 85% 95% % 60% 70%

43 Belfast still suffering from a rate perspective Annual ADR and Occupancy, , May 2017 Report Dublin Belfast % 65% 75% 85% 95% YTD % 65% 75% 85%

44 Dublin s Current and Future Supply

45 Quarterly forecast for Dublin Quarterly ADR and Occupancy, , May 2017 Report 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% ADR RevPAR Occupancy STR. All Rights Reserved.

46 Quarterly forecast for Dublin Quarterly ADR and Occupancy, , May 2017 Report 25% 20% Occ % chg ADR % chg 15% 10% 5% 0% -5%

47 Thank You! Sarah Duignan Director Client Relationships STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.