TABLE OF CONTENTS. 1. Characteristics of the hotel supply in the Netherlands Hotel performance indicators for 2015 and
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1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Characteristics of the hotel supply in the Netherlands 2 2. Hotel performance indicators for 2015 and Recent results for corpo chain hotels Performance indicators in 2013 (Average daily s and RevPAR in euros not incl. taxes) Monthly changes in occupancy s, average daily s and RevPARs by category from January 2009 to October Forecasts 2015 and Focus on Amsterdam the hotel supply Amsterdam forecasts (Average daily s and RevPAR in Euros not incl. taxes) 7 1
2 1. Characteristics of the hotel supply in the Netherlands Hotel supply shows strong growth The Netherlands supply is developing quickly thanks to corpo chains: 4,550 additional rooms were created between 2009 and The Netherlands is the European country where corpo chains are the most developed with respect to the global hotel supply: they represent close to 66% of the global supply in Recent growth of the supply has been mostly driven by the mid- and upscale categories. Generally speaking, the hotel supply is rising in range. the global supply Change 2014/2009 Hotels Rooms Hotels Rooms Rooms % Budget 371 5, , % Economy , , % Midscale 1,025 50,146 1,073 50, % Upscale , ,014 7, % Total 2,181 87,550 2,164 92,101 4, % Breakdown of the global supply by category SE E Sér ie1 ; SE : budget, E : economy, M : midscale, U&L : upscale and luxury Sér Sér ie1 ie1 ;; Sér ie1 ; the corpo chain supply Evolution 2013/2008 Hotels Rooms Hotels Rooms Rooms % Budget % Economy 44 4, , % Midscale , ,708 3, % Upscale 80 14, ,918 8, % Total , ,718 12, Breakdown of the corpo chain supply by category SE E SE : budget, E : economy, M : midscale, U&L : upscale and luxury Market share of corpo chains Penetration 2009 Penetration 2014 European average Budget 5.6% 14.4% 24.2% Economy 35.1% 41.5% 19.7% Midscale 57.5% 64.3% 25.8% Upscale 76.7% 88.1% 37.5% Total 55.1% 65.9% 28.1% 2
3 Jan-09 Hotel forecasts / The Netherlands 2. Hotel performance indicators for 2015 and Recent results for corpo chain hotels Performance indicators in 2013 (Average daily s and RevPAR in euros not incl. taxes) sensitivity to the economic situation The hotel sector in the Netherlands is marked by important variations in performance as it is very sensitive to the economic environment resulting from the country s high international exposure. After a downturn in occupancy s in 2008 and especially in 2009, these bounced back in 2010 and However, levels reached still remain decidedly lower than in the pre-crisis period (higher than 71% in 2006 and 2007). The recovery in ADR is stronger in the upscale segment from 2010, whereas the economy and midscale segments waited until 2011 to increase their prices more significantly. The slump in economic activity in Europe and the Netherlands once again weighs on occupancy s in Average daily s, which are sensitive to the economic situation, are also keeping in step. The economy and midscale categories are the most affected is the beginning of the recovery. While average daily s continue their downtrend on the economy and midscale segments, occupancy s increase more significantly except in the midscale category. Annual hotel performance indicators in 2013 (average daily s and RevPAR in Euros not incl. taxes) Occ Change Pts Average daily s 2013 Change % RevPAR 2013 Change % Economy % % Midscale 65.4% % % Upscale 70.5% % % Total 67.8% % Monthly changes in occupancy s, average daily s and RevPARs by category from January 2009 to October 2014 Improved performance continues in 2014 During the crisis in 2012, the economy segment shows the first signs of a turnaround followed by the midscale segment. On the beginning of 2013, average daily s remain on a downtrend in all categories except the upscale segment. In 2013, performances bounced back in the second semester and continue in Growth in the performances, particularly in occupancy s, is slower in the second semester of 2014 due to a comparison with the previous year, as the beginning of the recovery started in mid The upscale category shows an increase in ADR whereas economy and midscale prices do not record any rise in Monthly history across all categories
4 Jan-09 Jan-09 Jan-09 Hotel forecasts / The Netherlands History of monthly performance on the economy segment History of monthly performance on the midscale segment History of monthly performance on the upscale segment
5 2.2. Forecasts 2015 and A recovery in investment and international demand Being particularly sensitive to the international economic situation, results improved in 2011 thanks to strong international demand and 2013 are characterized by a downturn in investments and in household consumption due to restrictive policies to restore the budgetary balance. The trend shows the reversal of the downward trend: the Netherlands record growth in the GDP similar to the Euro Zone s. This growth is mainly driven by international demand, which is expected to continue to rise in the two next years. Companies support economic recovery by increasing investments after two years of contraction. However household consumption remains subdued notably due to a growing unemployment, and should rise again only from Growth in the RevPAR expected in 2014 is made possible by the rise in occupancy s and the beginning of the recovery in prices, and should get stronger in The context of a country s economic recovery and an increase in domestic demand (from both business investment and household consumption perspectives) could allow average prices to rise again, notably in economy and midscale categories. Economic forecasts 2015 (f) 2016 (f) EU OECD EU OECD Growth in the GDP 1.7% -1.6% -0.7% 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% Household consumption 0.2% -1.4% -1.6% 1.1% 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% GFCF 5.6% -6% -4% 2.1% 3.3% 3.5% 4.3% 4.5% Exports 4.4% 3.3% 2% 3.4% 3.3% 4%-- 4.6% 3.8% Unemployment 4.4% 5.3% 6.7% 6.9% 6.8% % Growth in GDP in the Euro Zone 1.6% -0.7% -0.5% 0.8% 1.1% 1.1% 1.7% 1.7% Source : European Economic Forecast Autumn 2014, OECD Economic Outlook 94, Projection, November 2014 Changes in the RevPAR and GDP, observed from 2000 to 2014 and forecasted for 2015 and 2016 in the Netherlands RevPAR variation 25% GDP variation 2 15% 1 5% -5% -1-15% -2 RevPAR GDP -25% e 2015f 2016f 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% 5
6 Forecasts across all categories 71.9% 70.5% 70.5% 70.6% 72.4% 72.9% 73.4% 74.4% 75.4% 76.4% % 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 1.6% 0.9% 1.7% 2.4% RevPAR % 3.4% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7% 2.7% 4.2% 5.7% 3.1% 5.2% 7.4% Forecasts for the economy category 77.1% % % % 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 2.2% % 1.2% % RevPAR % 5.1% 4.6% 4.7% 4.9% % % % Forecasts for the midscale category 68.9% 67.8% 67.8% 67.9% 69.8% 70.3% 70.8% 72.3% 73.3% 74.3% % -1.5% -1.4% -1.3% -1.2% -0.3% 0.5% 1.3% 0.2% % RevPAR % % 2.3% 2.5% 2.7% 4.2% 5.7% 3.1% 5.3% 7.5% Forecasts for the upscale and luxury category 72.8% 71.8% 71.8% 71.9% 73.5% % 75.5% 76.5% 77.5% % 1.7% 1.9% % % 1.6% 1.2% % RevPAR % 3.7% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 2.4% 3.9% 5.4% 3.3% 5.4% 7.6% 6
7 3. Focus on Amsterdam 3.1. the hotel supply Corpo chains dominate the market We may observe growth in the global supply by more than 5,500 rooms in Amsterdam across 5 years, primarily driven by corpo chains. These represent close to 85% of the hotel supply in the global supply Evolution 2014/2009 Hotels Rooms Hotels Rooms Rooms % Global including: , ,038 7, % Corpo chains 65 11, ,764 9, % Independent 221 6, ,274-2, % Breakdown by category of the corpo chain supply Sér ie1; B Sér ie1; B Sér Sér E E ie1; M ie1; U U&L M SE : budget, E : economy, M : midscale, U&L : upscale and luxury 3.2. Amsterdam forecasts (Average daily s and RevPAR in Euros not incl. taxes) The reopening of major tourist venues and international demand helps bring back growth Amsterdam suffered in 2012 from a drop in occupancy s due to important growth in the supply (+19.4% in 2012), which also led to stronger competition and a drop in average daily s. This trend continued in 2013 as the stabilization of occupancy s was not compensated by the drop in average daily s. The situation improved in the second semester 2013 and then in 2014 thanks to an increased tourist appeal of the city (reopening of the Rijksmuseum and the Van Gogh Museum in 2013) which make the arrivals increase. Average prices increase significantly in 2014 and this trend could continue in 2015, driving growth in the RevPAR. Forecasts for all categories % 80.6% 79.4% 79.9% 80.4% 80.9% 81.9% 82.9% 83.4% 84.4% 85.4% % -0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 1.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.9% 3.6% 3.2% % RevPAR % 3.6% 3.7% 2.5% % 3.4% 5.4% 7.5% 5.1% 7.2% 9.3% 7
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