Hunter Economic Indicators
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1 Hunter Economic Indicators June Quarter 2017 Dr Anthea Bill, Lead Economist Presentation Friday 4 August 2017
2 Presentation outline International: moderate growth, Euro-zone improves National: GDP slows but labour market improves Hunter Economy: divergence ~ businesses & households Youth labour market
3 OECD: GDP results March quarter % Australia Quarterly Real GDP Growth GDP: Gross Domestic Product
4 Unpacked: Australia s March GDP result Exports Housing Services Consumption
5 Summary macro trends Weakening of quarterly GDP result Unemployment rate 4-year low, full-time job growth trends up Consumer spending soft in line with modest income growth Moderation in house price growth, recent resurgence Melbourne Global backdrop improved: Euro-zone improves and Chinese growth continues
6 Youth Employment and Opportunities
7 Comparison, youth unemployment rates % Mining CAPEX Investment Youth, Hunter Youth, NSW Youth, Australia 3.0 Jun-11 Feb-12 Oct-12 Jun-13 Feb-14 Oct-14 Jun-15 Feb-16 Oct-16 Jun-17 Source: ABS Labour Force Survey.
8 Record high: Youth underemployment rate National Underemployment Rate Source: ABS Labour Force Survey.
9 Youth apprenticeships Completions, youth apprenticeships and trainees
10 Hunter Economy
11 Full-time job growth Employment (3-month moving average), Hunter and NSW
12 Unemployment rate falls, above NSW Unemployment rates (3-month moving average), Hunter and NSW
13 Residential market, median price decline Median house prices
14 Decline approvals new houses: blip or a trend? Annualised new housing approvals
15 HRF Centre s Hunter Pulse Surveys 300 businesses and 300 consumers
16 Business: recovery continues Business confidence and profitability Business Confidence (12 months) Profitability* (last 3 months) JUN 02 JUN 05 JUN 08 JUN 11 JUN 14 JUN 17 SOURCE: HRF Centre Pulse Business Surveys * linear extrapolation due to missing data, June quarter 2015.
17 Consumer sentiment: relatively subdued Consumer spending and confidence
18 Consumer spending: downward shift Hunter consumer spending, longer-term Pre-GFC* average Post-GFC average 0.00 JUN 02 JUN 04 JUN 06 JUN 08 JUN 10 JUN 12 JUN 14 JUN 16 SOURCE: HRF Centre Hunter Pulse Household Surveys *GFC, Global Financial Crisis.
19 Regional outlook households & businesses diverge 12-Month economic and financial outlook
20 Summary: Household & business optimism diverge Strong signs Business performance strengthens, and confidence above average Full-time job growth, youth unemployment trends down Business and household confidence in regional economy above long-term averages Downside risks... Softness in labour market - underemployment Household consumption subdued Slowing of residential housing market
21 Thank you Our latest Hunter Region Economic Indicators publication is available as you leave today
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