A statistical overview of the economic situation in the euro area
|
|
|
- Carol Ball
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 A statistical overview of the economic situation in the euro area By Gian Luigi Mazzi Florence, 29 April 2016 EUI-nomics 2016
2 Outline Latest PEEIs figures GDP growth estimates for the first quarter 2016 Euro area institutional forecast Euro area cyclical monitoring Macro-economic imbalances procedure
3 Latest PEEIs figures Introductory remarks PEEIs: a tool for short-term economic monitoring based on official statistics Picture for the euro area still very incomplete for 2016 few monthly data no quarterly data Updated picture for the euro area - combining official statistics and econometric techniques
4 Latest PEEIs figures 2014q3 2014q4 2015q1 2015q2 2015q3 2015q4 GDP % (Q/Q-1) % (Q/Q-4) Employment % (Q/Q-1) % (Q/Q-4) m m m m1 2016m2 2016m3 HICP % (M/M-1) % (M/M-12) PPI % (M/M-1) : % (M/M-12) : Import price % (M/M-1) : % (M/M-12) : IPI % (M/M-1) : % (M/M-12) : Retail trade % (M/M-1) : % (M/M-12) : Unemployment rate % : ESI Index
5 Latest PEEIs figures: some comments Persistent, very low inflation rate with still some negative months Slow but quite regular decrease of the unemployment rate at 10.3% in February Very uncertain path of Industrial Production Index accompanied by a regular but decelerating growth of the Retail trade GDP growth still quite moderate Economic sentiment indicator still above 100% but with a slight deterioration in February and March L1
6 Slide 5 L1 To revise LCales, 25/04/2016
7 GDP growth estimates for the first quarter 2016 estimates for the Euro area GDP growth based on 4 competing models Small-scale factor model with soft data only Small-scale factor model with hard and soft data Bridge model with hard and soft data Indirect estimates based on VECM models for largest individual Euro area economies Comparative analysis with some external leading indicators freely available Euroframe EuroCoin
8 GDP growth estimates for the first quarter 2016 (Euro area) factor model (soft data) factor model (hard and soft data) Bridge model (hard and soft data) 0.45% 0.66% 0.67% Indirect model 0.70% Euroframe 0.33% EuroCoin 0.41%
9 GDP growth estimates for the first quarter 2016 (Member states) Germany 0.73% France 0.54% Italy 0.39% Spain 1.41% Netherlands 0.20% Belgium 0.52%
10 GDP growth estimates for the first quarter 2016: some comments L2 Quite large range of variation among and other estimates for the first quarter 3 out of 4 models are forecasting the GDP growth around 0,7 % in the first quarter model based on soft data only as well as Euroframe and Eurocoin produce much less optimistic forecasts around 0,4% GDP growth estimates for Member states based on VECM models Strong acceleration for Germany and Spain Moderated growth in France and in Italy
11 Slide 9 L2 To revise LCales, 25/04/2016
12 Euro area institutional forecast Main sources L3 European Commission: Winter forecast - February 2016 OECD: interim economic outlook of February 2016 for GDP and the other forecasts are of November ECB: Macroeconomic projections - March 2016 IMF:World economic outlook - April 2016
13 Slide 10 L3 To revise LCales, 25/04/2016
14 Euro area institutional forecast Year DG ECFIN OECD * ECB IMF GDP HICP Unemployment Deficit Current account (%GDP)
15 Euro area institutional forecast: some comments Quite good consensus among institutional forecasts Some differences also due to the different timing of the forecast publication No deflationary risk but persistency of a low inflation Quite relevant difference between the OECD and the other institutions in 2016 Constant increase of GDP growth Progressive reduction of unemployment rate
16 Euro area cyclical monitoring Euro area dating: business, growth, and acceleration cycle non-parametric dating rule Euro area system for turning point detection: three coincident indicators BCCI: Business Cycle Coincident Indicator GCCI: Growth Cycle Coincident Indicator ACCI: Acceleration Cycle Coincident Indicator ACCI: recession probability returned by the Markov switching model fitted to the Economic Sentiment Indicator
17 Euro area cyclical monitoring MS-VAR GCCI and MS-VAR BCCI MSIH(4) VAR(0) model fitted on 4 variables 1) Industrial Production Index (differenced over 6 months) 2) Unemployment Rate (inverted diff. over 1 month) 3) New Passenger Car Registrations (diff. over 3 months) 4) Employment Expectations (diff. over 1 month) Both indicators jointly obtained as a by-product of model parameters estimation: MS-VAR BCCI filtered probabilities of the first regime of the state-variable (regimes of the latent Markov-chain are sorted in ascending order of the state-dependent intercept); MS-VAR GCCI sum of filtered probabilities of the first and second regimes.
18 Euro area cyclical monitoring ACCI Probability of Being in a Deceleration of the Acceleration Cycle Acceleration Cycle Reference Chronology Ending Date of Provisional Chronology 0.5 Threshold Provisional Dating Chronology ACCI
19 Euro area cyclical monitoring MS-VAR BCCI Probability of Being in a Recession of the Classical Business Cycle Business Cycle Reference Chronology Ending Date of Provisional Chronology 0.5 Threshold Provisional Dating Chronology MS-VAR BCCI
20 Probability of Being in a Slowdown of the Growth Cycle Euro area cyclical monitoring MS-VAR GCCI Growth Cycle Reference Chronology Ending Date of Provisional Chronology 0.5 Threshold Provisional Dating Chronology MS-VAR GCCI
21 Economic Coincident Cycle indicator Provisional Dating of the Acceleration Cycle Acceleration ACCI Cycle Peak 2006 Q2 June 2006 Troug h 2009 Q1 Mar Peak Trough Peak Trough Peak 2010 Q2 Oct Q1 Oct Dec Jan Provisional Dating of the Growth Cycle Growth Cycle MS-VAR GCCI 2008 Q1 Dec Q3 Sept Q3 May Q Dec. Apr Provisional dating of the Business Cycle Classical MS-VAR Business Cycle BCCI 2008 Q1 Apr Q2 Sept Q3 July Q1 May
22 Euro area cyclical monitoring Membercountries extension Non-parametric chronologies for BCCI and GCCI in progress for member states Already available for all Euro area countries except Lithuania + UK Coincident turning point indicators for growth cycle and business cycle for member states Based on MS-VAR only Already available for for all Euro area countries except Lithuania + UK
23 Euro area cyclical monitoring Models summary by country Country Model Recessions Slowdowns Variables (differentiation order) IPI UR BUI L IN D CON S RET A Belgium MSI(4)-VAR(0) R1 R1+R France MSIH(4)-VAR(0) R1 R1+R Germany MSIH(4)-VAR(0) R1 R1+R Italy MSIH(5)-VAR(0) R1 R1+R Netherlands MSIH(4)-VAR(0) R1 R1+R Portugal MSI(5)-VAR(0) R1+R2 R1+R2+R Spain MSIH(4)-VAR(0) R1 R1+R
24 Peak Trough Peak Trough Peak Trough Peak Trough Peak Trough Peak Trough Peak Trough Peak Germany France Italy Spain the Netherlands Belgium Portugal Austria GC Apr-01 Aug-03 Feb-04 May-05 May-08 Jul-09 Oct-11 Mar-13 BC Nov-02 Apr-03 Nov-08 Jun-09 GC Nov-00 Aug-03 Sep-07 Aug-09 Aug-11 Aug-13 Aug-14 Oct-14 BC Jul-08 May-09 GC Oct-01 Aug-03 Dec-07 Jun-09 Jul-11 May-13 BC Jan-03 May-03 Dec-07 Apr-09 Aug-11 Apr-13 GC Apr-01 Oct-03 Sep-07 Nov-09 Jul-10 Aug-13 BC Feb-08 Nov-09 Jul-11 Apr-13 GC Feb-01 Oct-03 Jun-08 Dec-09 Mar-11 Feb-13 BC Oct-08 Dec-09 Mar-11 Oct-11 GC Aug-00 Aug-03 Feb-05 Sep-05 Sep-07 Sep-09 May-11 Jun-15 BC Oct-01 Dec-01 Sep-08 Apr-09 May-12 Jun-12 GC Jul-98 May-03 Oct-04 Sep-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jul-07 May-09 Jul-10 Jul-13 Nov-15 BC Jun-02 May-03 Jul-05 Sep-05 Jun-08 May-09 Oct-10 Mar-12 GC May-01 Aug-03 Oct-07 Sep-09 Oct-11 BC Oct-08 Sep-09 Cyprus GC BC Aug-08 Feb-10 Dec-10 Nov-13 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jan-09 Jun-09 Sep-11 Jun-13
25 Estonia Finland Greece Ireland Latvia Luxemb ourg Malta Peak Trough Peak Trough Peak Trough Peak Trough Peak Trough Peak Trough Peak Trough Peak GC Mar-04 Jan-07 Sep-09 Jun-12 Jun-15 BC Aug-07 Sep-09 GC Sep-00 Jan-04 Jun-08 Feb-10 May-12 Aug-15 BC Jun-08 Feb-10 May-12 Mar-15 GC Sep-05 Dec-07 Jun-14 May-15 BC Dec-08 May-13 GC Sep-00 Nov-03 Jul-05 Mar-10 Oct-10 Nov-12 BC Sep-01 Feb-02 Dec-07 Nov-09 GC Dec-04 Sep-06 Mar-10 Nov-12 BC Jan-08 Nov-09 GC Apr-03 Jan-08 May-09 Jun-11 Mar-13 BC Oct-08 May-09 GC Apr-04 Nov-08 Apr-10 BC Apr-04 Nov-08 Jun-09 GC Jun-05 Jan-08 Aug-09 Sep-11 Dec-13 Slovakia BC Aug-08 Aug-09 GC Slovenia Mar-00 Jun-06 Nov-07 Sep-09 Aug-11 Mar-13 Dec-14 Jul-15 BC Jun-08 Sep-09 Aug-11 Mar-13 UK GC Jun-00 Apr-02 Apr-03 Mar-04 Dec-04 Oct-05 Aug-07 May-09 Nov-11 Apr-13 Mar-15 BC May-08 May-09
26 Euro area cyclical monitoring: some comments Since beginning of 2013, euro area and the majority of member states went out from the recession and slowdown phases In the period , Germany, France and Austria experienced only a slowdown phase of the growth cycle but not a recessionary phase of the business cycle In 2015, Portugal, Greece and UK entered in a slowdown phase of the growth cycle Latvia is persistently in a slowdown phase since 2012 None of the euro area countries + the UK is experiencing a recession
27 Euro area cyclical monitoring: some comments (cont.) With the global financial and economic crisis synchronisation across euro area member countries started to decrease Currently, member countries turning points are neither well synchronised nor well diffused Tricky situation since an optimal currency area requires a high degree of synchronisation across its members
28 MIP Headline Indicators Scoreboard External Imbalances Balance of Payments Current account Net international investment Competitiveness Real effective exchange rate (REER) Share of world exports Nominal unit labour cost Internal Imbalances House price developments Private sector credit flow Private sector debt General government debt Unemployment rate Total financial sector liabilities Labour market Activity rate Long term unemployment Youth unemployment 25
29 Labour market: in 2015 enlarged set of scoreboard indicators Activity rate Long term unemployment Youth unemployment All as three years change in p.p. Aim: capture social consequences of the crisis in the medium and long term Not triggering MIP steps
30 Reading of the MIP scoreboard No single indicator can capture all potential risks: - Analysis in connection with other scoreboard indicators Thenumberofflashesisnotthekeycriteria Thescoreboardshouldbereadalsoovertime The severity of a breach of a threshold can be considered Asetofauxiliaryindicators play an important role 27
31 Reading of the MIP scoreboard (cont.) At least one indicator outside the thresholds for all MSs 8 out of 14 is the maximum number of flashing indicators One not-flashing indicator: private sector credit flow In 2016, the imbalances categories have been streamlined to four: Excessive Imbalances with corrective action plan Excessive Imbalances Imbalances No Imbalances
32 Macro-economic imbalance procedure In-depth reviews (IDRs) 2016 Excessive Imbalances: BG, CY, FR, HR, IT, PT Imbalances : IE, SI, ES, FI, DE, NL, SE No imbalances: AT, BE, EE, HU, RO, UK Surveillance in context of adjustment programme: EL
33 Flashes per indicator (2016 AMR)
34 Conclusions - overview MIP: surveillance mechanism integrated part of the European Semester prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances early warning system based on scoreboard of indicators + economic reading AMR starting point of MIP In-Depth Reviews preventive and corrective arm
A statistical overview of the economic situation in the euro area
A statistical overview of the economic situation in the euro area By Gian Luigi Mazzi Florence, 24 April 2015 EUI-nomics 2015 Outline Latest PEEIs figures GDP growth estimates for the first quarter 2015
74 ECB THE 2012 MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCE PROCEDURE
Box 7 THE 2012 MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCE PROCEDURE This year s European Semester (i.e. the framework for EU policy coordination introduced in 2011) includes, for the first time, the implementation of the
January 2010 Euro area unemployment rate at 9.9% EU27 at 9.5%
STAT//29 1 March 20 January 20 Euro area unemployment rate at 9.9% EU27 at 9.5% The euro area 1 (EA16) seasonally-adjusted 2 unemployment rate 3 was 9.9% in January 20, the same as in December 2009 4.
October 2010 Euro area unemployment rate at 10.1% EU27 at 9.6%
STAT//180 30 November 20 October 20 Euro area unemployment rate at.1% EU27 at 9.6% The euro area 1 (EA16) seasonally-adjusted 2 unemployment rate 3 was.1% in October 20, compared with.0% in September 4.
European Commission. Statistical Annex of Alert Mechanism Report 2017
European Commission Statistical Annex of Alert Mechanism Report 2017 COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT STATISTICAL ANNEX Accompanying the document REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT,
Eurozone Economic Watch. February 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch February 2018 Eurozone: Strong growth continues in 1Q18, but confidence seems to peak GDP growth moderated slightly in, but there was an upward revision to previous quarters. Available
Macroeconomic overview SEE and Macedonia
Macroeconomic overview SEE and Macedonia Zoltan Arokszallasi Chief Analyst, Macro & FX/FI Research Erste Group Bank Erste Investors Breakfast, 29 September, Skopje 02. Oktober SEE shows mixed performance
Communication on the future of the CAP
Communication on the future of the CAP The CAP towards 2020: meeting the food, natural resources and territorial challenges of the future Tassos Haniotis, Director Agricultural Policy Analysis and Perspectives
Growth, competitiveness and jobs: priorities for the European Semester 2013 Presentation of J.M. Barroso,
Growth, competitiveness and jobs: priorities for the European Semester 213 Presentation of J.M. Barroso, President of the European Commission, to the European Council of 14-1 March 213 Economic recovery
December 2010 Euro area annual inflation up to 2.2% EU up to 2.6%
STAT/11/9 14 January 2011 December 2010 Euro area annual inflation up to 2.2% EU up to 2.6% Euro area 1 annual inflation was 2.2% in December 2010 2, up from 1.9% in November. A year earlier the rate was
January 2009 Euro area external trade deficit 10.5 bn euro 26.3 bn euro deficit for EU27
STAT/09/40 23 March 2009 January 2009 Euro area external trade deficit 10.5 26.3 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA16) trade balance with the rest of the world in January 2009
Eurozone Economic Watch. May 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch May 2018 BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Eurozone: more moderate growth with higher uncertainty The eurozone GDP growth slowed in more than expected. Beyond temporary
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) August 2015
Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 MONTENEGRO STATISTICAL OFFICE R E L E A S E Broj: 201 Podgorica, 18 September 2015 When using the data please name the source
May 2009 Euro area external trade surplus 1.9 bn euro 6.8 bn euro deficit for EU27
STAT/09/106 17 July 2009 May 2009 Euro area external trade surplus 1.9 6.8 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA16) trade balance with the rest of the world in May 2009 gave a 1.9
Macroeconomic Policies in Europe: Quo Vadis A Comment
Macroeconomic Policies in Europe: Quo Vadis A Comment February 12, 2016 Helene Schuberth Outline Staff Projection of the Euro Area Monetary Policy Investment Rebalancing in the euro area Fiscal Policy
Schwerpunkt Außenwirtschaft 2016/17 Austrian economic activity, Austria's price competitiveness and a summary on external trade
Schwerpunkt Außenwirtschaft /7 Austrian economic activity, Austria's price competitiveness and a summary on external trade Christian Ragacs, Klaus Vondra Abteilung für volkswirtschaftliche Analysen, OeNB
Eurozone Economic Watch. November 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch November 2017 Eurozone: improved outlook, still subdued inflation Our MICA-BBVA model for growth estimates for the moment a quarterly GDP figure of around -0.7% in, after % QoQ
August 2008 Euro area external trade deficit 9.3 bn euro 27.2 bn euro deficit for EU27
STAT/08/143 17 October 2008 August 2008 Euro area external trade deficit 9.3 27.2 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA15) trade balance with the rest of the world in August 2008
Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable
Traffic Safety Basic Facts Main Figures. Traffic Safety Basic Facts Traffic Safety. Motorways Basic Facts 2015.
Traffic Safety Basic Facts 2013 - Main Figures Traffic Safety Basic Facts 2015 Traffic Safety Motorways Basic Facts 2015 Motorways General Almost 30.000 people were killed in road accidents on motorways
May 2009 Euro area annual inflation down to 0.0% EU down to 0.7%
STAT/09/88 16 June 2009 May 2009 Euro area annual inflation down to 0.0% EU down to 0.7% Euro area 1 annual inflation was 0.0% in May 2009 2, down from 0.6% in April. A year earlier the rate was 3.7%.
34 th Associates Meeting - Andorra, 25 May Item 5: Evolution of economic governance in the EU
34 th Associates Meeting - Andorra, 25 May 2012 - Item 5: Evolution of economic governance in the EU Plan of the Presentation 1. Fiscal and economic coordination: how did it start? 2. Did it work? 3. Five
Lithuania within the Economic Governance cycle of the EU
European Institute of Public Administration - Institut européen d administration publique Lithuania within the Economic Governance cycle of the EU Faculty of Economics University of Vilnius, 16 October
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT STATISTICAL ANNEX. Accompanying the document
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 22.11.2017 SWD(2017) 661 final COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT STATISTICAL ANNEX Accompanying the document REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL,
Eurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 EUROZONE WATCH FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone: A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections The recovery proceeded at a steady and solid pace in, resulting in an
52 ECB. The 2015 Ageing Report: how costly will ageing in Europe be?
Box 7 The 5 Ageing Report: how costly will ageing in Europe be? Europe is facing a demographic challenge. The old age dependency ratio, i.e. the share of people aged 65 or over relative to the working
1.1. Low yield environment
1. Key developments The overall macroeconomic environment remains very challenging for the European insurance and pension sector. The yields have been further compressed and are substantially below the
Traffic Safety Basic Facts Main Figures. Traffic Safety Basic Facts Traffic Safety. Motorways Basic Facts 2016.
Traffic Safety Basic Facts 2013 - Main Figures Traffic Safety Basic Facts 2015 Traffic Safety Motorways Basic Facts 2016 Motorways General Almost 26.000 people were killed in road accidents on motorways
Eurozone Economic Watch. March 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone: The moderation of confidence continues We expect GDP growth to remain steady early this year supported mostly by strong global
Traffic Safety Basic Facts Main Figures. Traffic Safety Basic Facts Traffic Safety. Motorways Basic Facts 2017.
Traffic Safety Basic Facts 2013 - Main Figures Traffic Safety Basic Facts 2015 Traffic Safety Motorways Basic Facts 2017 Motorways General More than 24.000 people were killed in road accidents on motorways
The Cyprus Economy: from Recovery to Sustainable Growth. Vincenzo Guzzo Resident Representative in Cyprus
The Economy: from Recovery to Sustainable Growth Vincenzo Guzzo Resident Representative in Growth momentum remains strong 18 : Real GDP ( billion) 1 Deviation from Pre-Crisis Level and Trend (Percent)
Overview of EU public finances
6 volume 17, 12/29B I Overview of EU public finances PRE-CRISIS DEVELOPMENTS Public finance developments in the EU up to 28 can be divided into three stages: In 1997, the Stability and Growth Pact entered
Euro-QE at the end of the road for now
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.8 2.6 2.1 3.21 1.17 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
The ECB's drive to build purchased assets
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.8 2.6 2. 3.1 1.11 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
The ECB's drive to build purchased assets
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.6 2.5 1.9 2.86 1.11 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
The Trend Reversal of the Private Credit Market in the EU
The Trend Reversal of the Private Credit Market in the EU Key Findings of the ECRI Statistical Package 2016 Roberto Musmeci*, September 2016 The ECRI Statistical Package 2016, Lending to Households and
SEE macroeconomic outlook Recovery gains traction, fiscal discipline improving. Alen Kovac, Chief Economist EBC May 2016 Ljubljana
SEE macroeconomic outlook Recovery gains traction, fiscal discipline improving Alen Kovac, Chief Economist EBC May 216 Ljubljana Real economy highlights Recent GDP track record reveals more favorable footprint
The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP)
The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) Jonas Fischer European Commission, DG ECFIN EP, 10 July 2018 [Di/con]vergence in euro area external positions Group A (surplus/creditor countries): AT, BE, DE,
EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017
EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017 Key messages: some changes for the better Improving confidence in across the board shows the resilience of the eurozone to the various potentially disturbing political
Second estimate for the third quarter of 2008 EU27 current account deficit 39.5 bn euro 19.3 bn euro surplus on trade in services
STAT/09/12 22 January 2009 Second estimate for the third quarter of 20 EU27 current account deficit 39.5 bn euro 19.3 bn euro surplus on trade in According to the latest revisions1, the EU272 external
Taxation trends in the European Union EU27 tax ratio at 39.8% of GDP in 2007 Steady decline in top personal and corporate income tax rates since 2000
DG TAXUD STAT/09/92 22 June 2009 Taxation trends in the European Union EU27 tax ratio at 39.8% of GDP in 2007 Steady decline in top personal and corporate income tax rates since 2000 The overall tax-to-gdp
Issues Paper. 29 February 2012
29 February 212 Issues Paper In the context of the European semester, the March European Council gives, on the basis of the Commission's Annual Growth Survey, guidance to Member States for the Stability
Two years to go to the 2014 European elections European Parliament Eurobarometer (EB/EP 77.4)
Directorate-General for Communication PUBLIC OPINION MONITORING UNIT Brussels, 23 October 2012. Two years to go to the 2014 European elections European Parliament Eurobarometer (EB/EP 77.4) FOCUS ON THE
NOTE ON EU27 CHILD POVERTY RATES
NOTE ON EU7 CHILD POVERTY RATES Research note prepared for Child Poverty Action Group Authors: H. Xavier Jara and Chrysa Leventi Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER) University of Essex The
Eurozone Economic Watch. April 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch April 2018 Eurozone: solid growth and broadly unchanged projections, with protectionist risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Confidence has weakened in 1Q18 since the
Securing sustainable and adequate social protection in the EU
Securing sustainable and adequate social protection in the EU Session on Social Protection & Security IFA 12th Global Conference on Ageing 11 June 2014, HICC Hyderabad India Dr Lieve Fransen European Commission
Economic recovery and employment in the EU. Raymond Torres, Director, ILO Research Department
Economic recovery and employment in the EU Raymond Torres, Director, ILO Research Department Outline of presentation I. Situation in the EU versus Japan and the US II. Role of macroeconomic policies and
COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION. Brussels, 13 June /1/13 REV 1 SOC 409 ECOFIN 444 EDUC 190
COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Brussels, 13 June 2013 10373/1/13 REV 1 SOC 409 ECOFIN 444 EDUC 190 COVER NOTE from: to: Subject: The Employment Committee Permanent Representatives Committee (Part I) / Council
Short-term indicators and Updated Forecasts. Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016
Short-term indicators and Updated Forecasts Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016 EUROZONE WATCH NOVEMBER 2016 Key messages: resilience and unchanged projections The moderate pace of economic growth continued in the
KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA
#### This update: () 9-Mar-1 16 17 Next update: -May-1 - Directorate A - Policy, strategy and communication 9-17 1-17 11-17 1-17 1-1 -1 LTA (1) 16 17 17Q 17Q3 17Q 1Q1 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-1
Euro-QE at the end of the road for now
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.9 2.6 2.1 3.16 1.15 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
COVER NOTE The Employment Committee Permanent Representatives Committee (Part I) / Council EPSCO Employment Performance Monitor - Endorsement
COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Brussels, 15 June 2011 10666/1/11 REV 1 SOC 442 ECOFIN 288 EDUC 107 COVER NOTE from: to: Subject: The Employment Committee Permanent Representatives Committee (Part I) / Council
DATA SET ON INVESTMENT FUNDS (IVF) Naming Conventions
DIRECTORATE GENERAL STATISTICS LAST UPDATE: 10 APRIL 2013 DIVISION MONETARY & FINANCIAL STATISTICS ECB-UNRESTRICTED DATA SET ON INVESTMENT FUNDS (IVF) Naming Conventions The series keys related to Investment
Employment and Social Developments in Europe
Employment and Social Developments in Europe Quarterly Review February 2018 Social Europe February 2018 With regularly updated data and charts downloadable here February 2018 I 1 The Employment and Social
The ECB s Strategy in Good and Bad Times Massimo Rostagno European Central Bank
The ECB s Strategy in Good and Bad Times Massimo Rostagno European Central Bank The views expressed herein are those of the presenter only and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB or the European
PRACTICAL ASPECTS AND DILEMMAS OF MEDIUM TERM FISCAL PLANNING - CASE OF SLOVENIA. Copyright rests with the author. All rights reserved.
PRACTICAL ASPECTS AND DILEMMAS OF MEDIUM TERM FISCAL PLANNING - CASE OF SLOVENIA Copyright rests with the author. All rights reserved. Saša Jazbec, Ministry of Finance Republic of Slovenia MARCH 2018 Agenda
EU Market Situation for Poultry. Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets 22 March 2018
EU Market Situation for Poultry Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets 22 March 218 -.2% -.8% -1.1% -2.4% -2.9% -3.3% -4.2% -4.5% 5.1% 4.6% 4.5% 3.8% 3.3% 2.7% 2.4% 1.5% 1.1%
Investment in France and the EU
Investment in and the EU Natacha Valla March 2017 22/02/2017 1 Change relative to 2008Q1 % of GDP Slow recovery of investment, and with strong heterogeneity Overall Europe s recovery in investment is slow,
Themes Income and wages in Europe Wages, productivity and the wage share Working poverty and minimum wage The gender pay gap
5. W A G E D E V E L O P M E N T S At the ETUC Congress in Seville in 27, wage developments in Europe were among the most debated issues. One of the key problems highlighted in this respect was the need
Chart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy
Chart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy Contents List of charts... 3 Macro and macro-financial setting... 5 Swedish macroeconomic setting... 5 Foreign macroeconomic setting... Macro-financial
The EFTA Statistical Office: EEA - the figures and their use
The EFTA Statistical Office: EEA - the figures and their use EEA Seminar Brussels, 13 September 2012 1 Statistics Comparable, impartial and reliable statistical data are a prerequisite for a democratic
Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover
KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA
#### This update: () 16 17 Next update: - Directorate A - Policy, strategy and communication 9-17 1-17 11-17 1-17 1-1 -1 LTA (1) 16 17 17Q 17Q 1Q1 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-1 Feb-1 1. Output Economic
Economic governace and coordination of economic policies
Economic governace and coordination of economic policies Reform of economic governance! European Semester 1 st edition in 2011 EU27! Integrated surveillance! Six-Pack in force since December 2011 EU27
Increasing the fiscal sustainability of health care systems in the European Union to ensure access to high quality health services for all
Increasing the fiscal sustainability of health care systems in the European Union to ensure access to high quality health services for all EPC Santander, 6 September 2013 Christoph Schwierz Sustainability
Annual Report Statistical Appendix. Rome, 31 May nd. Financial Year nd financial year
Annual Report Rome, 31 May 2016 2015 122 nd financial year Financial Year 122 nd Annual Report 2015 122 nd Financial Year Rome, 31 May 2016 Banca d Italia, 2016 Address Via Nazionale, 91 00184 Rome - Italy
Some Historical Examples of Yield Curves
3 months 6 months 1 year 2 years 5 years 10 years 30 years Some Historical Examples of Yield Curves Nominal interest rate, % 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 January 1981 June1999 December2009 0 Time to maturity This
Recent developments and challenges for the Portuguese economy
Recent developments and challenges for the Portuguese economy Carlos Name da Job Silva Costa Governor 13 January 214 Seminar National Seminar Bank name of Poland 19 June 215 Outline 1. Growing imbalances
Background on the Euro Plus Pact. Information prepared for the European Council, 9 December 2011
Background on the Euro Plus Pact Information prepared for the European Council, 9 December 2011 Contents 1 1. Our commitments 2. Competitiveness 3. Employment 4. Sustainability of public finances 5. Financial
Special Eurobarometer 418 SOCIAL CLIMATE REPORT
Special Eurobarometer 418 SOCIAL CLIMATE REPORT Fieldwork: June 2014 Publication: November 2014 This survey has been requested by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs
Statistics. Pocket Book
Statistics Pocket Book September January 2011 2008 Statistics Pocket Book The Statistics Pocket Book is updated monthly. In general, the cut-off date for the statistics included in the Pocket Book is the
Library statistical spotlight
/9/2 Library of the European Parliament 6 4 2 This document aims to provide a picture of the, in particular by looking at car production trends since 2, at the number of enterprises and the turnover they
MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY IN THE EURO AREA SYNERGIES AND CHALLENGES
MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY IN THE EURO AREA SYNERGIES AND CHALLENGES Esther Gordo Head of the Euro Area Unit Banco de España Bolivia, 8-9 June 2017 ECONOMIC SITUATION IN THE EURO AREA The economic recovery
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK AND THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 22.11.217 COM(217) 771 final REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK AND THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE Alert
STAT/14/ October 2014
STAT/14/158-21 October 2014 Provision of deficit and debt data for 2013 - second notification Euro area and EU28 government deficit at 2.9% and 3.2% of GDP respectively Government debt at 90.9% and 85.4%
Social Protection and Social Inclusion in Europe Key facts and figures
MEMO/08/625 Brussels, 16 October 2008 Social Protection and Social Inclusion in Europe Key facts and figures What is the report and what are the main highlights? The European Commission today published
Scenario for the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority s EU-wide insurance stress test in 2016
17 March 2016 ECB-PUBLIC Scenario for the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority s EU-wide insurance stress test in 2016 Introduction In accordance with its mandate, the European Insurance
Measuring Unemployment Some Key Terms
Measuring Unemployment Some Key Terms Claimant Count (JSA) Labour Force Survey (LFS) The number of people officially claiming unemployment- related benefits must be actively seeking work All those actively
Surveillance of macroeconomic imbalances: The excessive imbalances procedure (EIP)
Surveillance of macroeconomic imbalances: The excessive imbalances procedure (EIP) Adja A. SiSSOKO European Commission Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs Conference on «Role of statistics
Statistics. Pocket Book
Statistics Pocket Book January March 2010 2008 Statistics Pocket Book The Statistics Pocket Book is updated monthly. As a general rule, the cut-off date for the statistics included in the Pocket Book is
PROGRESS TOWARDS THE LISBON OBJECTIVES 2010 IN EDUCATION AND TRAINING
PROGRESS TOWARDS THE LISBON OBJECTIVES IN EDUCATION AND TRAINING In 7, reaching the benchmarks for continues to pose a serious challenge for education and training systems in Europe, except for the goal
The European Financial and Competitiveness Crisis: the Central-Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) situation
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies www.wiiw.ac.at The European Financial and Competitiveness Crisis: the Central-Eastern and
Impact of Recent Crisis Episodes on China and India
Impact of Recent Crisis Episodes on China and India Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi PRESENTATION TO THE THE INSTITUTE OF CHINESE STUDIES, DELHI 13 TH MAY, 2015 Outline Background Recent
Impact of the Great Recession and the Role of Assistance Programmes in EMU Countries
UNIVERSIDADE DE TRÁS-OS-MONTES E ALTO DOURO Impact of the Great Recession and the Role of Assistance Programmes in EMU Countries Leonida Correia and Patrícia Martins Centre for Transdisciplinary Development
June Introduction Relevance of the database Extractions Hits Completeness...6
June 2005 1 Introduction...2 2 Relevance of the database...3 2.1 Extractions...3 2.2 Hits...5 3 Completeness...6 3.1 Coverage of the database...6 3.2 Geographical level...9 3.3 Distribution by domain...11
The European Economy. Simon Barry Chief Economist Republic of Ireland. December 2012
The European Economy Simon Barry Chief Economist Republic of Ireland December 212 Euro area economy now back in recession as GDP contracts in 3 of the past 4 quarters Euro Area Real GDP Growth, % 1.5 1..5.
PROGRESS TOWARDS THE LISBON OBJECTIVES 2010 IN EDUCATION AND TRAINING
PROGRESS TOWARDS THE LISBON OBJECTIVES IN EDUCATION AND TRAINING In, reaching the benchmarks for continues to pose a serious challenge for education and training systems in Europe, except for the goal
Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis
Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis by Salvador Barrios, Per Iversen, Magdalena Lewandowska, Ralph Setzer DG ECFIN, European Commission - This paper does
Time series adjustment in Austria
We are moving Time series adjustment in Austria information Workshop II, 2 5 December 28, Vienna Statistics Austria www.statistik.at S T A T I S T I C S A U S T R I A 1 Overview Background Basic idea Method
Europe Outlook. Third Quarter 2015
Europe Outlook Third Quarter 2015 Main messages 1 2 3 4 5 Moderation of global growth and slowdown in emerging economies, with downside risks The recovery continues in the eurozone, but still marked by
Flash Eurobarometer 458. The euro area
The euro area Survey requested by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs and co-ordinated by the Directorate-General for Communication This document does not represent
Inflation and deflation risks: How to recognise them? How to avoid them?
Inflation and deflation risks: How to recognise them? How to avoid them? Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank XXI Villa Mondragone International Economic Seminar
Gender pension gap economic perspective
Gender pension gap economic perspective Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak Institute of Statistics and Demography SGH Part of this research was supported by European Commission 7th Framework Programme project "Employment
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Accompanying the document. Report form the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 4.5.2018 SWD(2018) 246 final PART 5/9 COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Accompanying the document Report form the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament on
Fiscal sustainability challenges in Romania
Preliminary Draft For discussion only Fiscal sustainability challenges in Romania Bucharest, May 10, 2011 Ionut Dumitru Anca Paliu Agenda 1. Main fiscal sustainability challenges 2. Tax collection issues
STAT/14/64 23 April 2014
STAT/14/64 23 April 2014 Provision of deficit and debt data for 2013 - first notification Euro area and EU28 government deficit at 3.0% and 3.3% of GDP respectively Government debt at 92.6% and 87.1% In
Employment and Social Developments in Europe
Employment and Social Developments in Europe Quarterly Review December 218 Social Europe December 218 With regularly updated data and charts downloadable here December 218 I 1 The Employment and Social
January 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 0.9 bn euro 13.0 bn euro deficit for EU28
STAT/14/41 18 March 2014 January 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 0.9 13.0 deficit for EU28 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA18) trade in goods balance with the rest of the
The economic and budgetary consequences of ageing populations
The economic and budgetary consequences of ageing populations Henri Bogaert Bureau du Plan and Chairman of the Ageing Working Group Giuseppe Carone European Commission DG ECFIN Rome, 23 February 2007 Outline
September With regularly updated data and charts downloadable here. Social Europe EU Employment and Social Situation I Quarterly Review
September 2015 With regularly updated data and charts downloadable here September 2015 I 1 This Quarterly Review provides in-depth analysis of recent labour market and social developments. It is prepared