Flash Eurobarometer 458. The euro area

Transcription

1 The euro area Survey requested by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs and co-ordinated by the Directorate-General for Communication This document does not represent the point of view of the European Commission. The interpretations and opinions contained in it are solely those of the authors. Fieldwork Publication December 2017 TNS Political & Social

2 The euro area Survey conducted by TNS Political & Social at the request of the European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Survey co-ordinated by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Communication (DG COMM Media Monitoring and Analysis Unit)

3

4 INTRODUCTION Since the introduction of the euro in 2002, the European Commission has regularly conducted surveys measuring public perceptions of the euro among citizens living in the euro area countries. As the euro area has expanded, surveys have also included questions about the adoption of the euro in new euro area countries. This Flash Eurobarometer survey represents the sixteenth in the series of surveys. Among others, it includes measures on: Support for the euro at a national and at an EU level, and views on its impact on the European identity; The perceived ease of handling and distinguishing euro coins and banknotes, views on the number of different value coins available, and attitudes towards the abolition of 1 and 2 cent euro coins. The impact the euro has had in relation to travelling abroad in other EU countries whether it has made it easier and less costly and whether it has reduced banking charges or not; Within Latvia and Lithuania, the perceived impact of the euro on prices, in the changeover period; In relation to economic policy: perceptions of whether there is the appropriate amount of coordination among euro area governments, and whether EU economic policy coordination has strengthened, weakened or remained the same in recent years; This survey was carried out by the TNS Political & Social network in the 19 Member States of the euro area between the 16 th and 18 th1. Some respondents from different social and demographic groups were interviewed via telephone (landline and mobile phone) in their mother tongue, on behalf of the European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN). The methodology used is that of Eurobarometer surveys as carried out by the Directorate-General for Communication Media monitoring and Analysis Unit) 2.. A technical note on the manner in which interviews were conducted by the Institutes within the TNS Political & Social network is appended as an annex to this report. Also included are the interview methods and confidence intervals 3. Note: In this report, countries are referred to by their official abbreviation. The abbreviations used in this report correspond to: Belgium BE Latvia LV Germany DE Luxembourg LU Estonia EE Malta MT Greece EL The Netherlands NL Spain ES Austria AT France FR Portugal PT Ireland IE Slovenia SI Italy IT Slovakia SK Republic of Cyprus CY * Finland FI Lithuania LT BE, FR, IT, LU, DE, AT, ES, PT, IE, NL, FI, EL, EE, SI, CY, MT, SK, LV, LT Euro area * Cyprus as a whole is one of the 28 European Union Member States. However, the acquis communautaire has been suspended in the part of the country which is not controlled by the government of the Republic of Cyprus. For practical reasons, only the interviews carried out in the part of the country controlled by the government of the Republic of Cyprus are included in the CY category and in the Euro Area average. 1 With the exception of Austria, where fieldwork extended to the 25th October The results tables are included in the annex. It should be noted that the total of the percentages in the tables of this report may exceed 100% when the respondent has the possibility of giving several answers to the question. 1

5 I. SUPPORT FOR THE EURO Just under two-thirds of respondents think that having the euro is a good thing for their country Just under two-thirds of respondents (64%) think that having the euro is a good thing for their country and a quarter (25%) think that it is a bad thing 4. There has been a notable increase in the proportion that think that having the euro is a good thing for their country compared with that reported in 2016 (+8 percentage points), and a corresponding drop in the proportion that think it is a bad thing (-8 pp). The majority of respondents in all but three countries think that the euro has been a good thing for their country, with this view most widespread in Ireland (85%), Luxembourg (82%) and Germany (76%). The exceptions, where only a minority of respondents say that having the euro has been a good thing for their country, are Lithuania (36%), Italy (45%) and Cyprus (48%). Nonetheless, the share of people saying this in Italy and Cyprus has increased since last year. Three-quarters of respondents think that having the euro is good for the EU Respondents are more likely to think that having the euro is beneficial for the EU than to think it is beneficial for their country. Around three-quarters of respondents (74%) say that the euro is a good thing for the EU and around one in six (16%) think that it is a bad thing 5. Overall, at least six in ten respondents in each country think that having the euro has been a good thing for the EU. The largest majorities are seen in Ireland and Luxembourg (both 86%) and Spain (80%), while the lowest proportions are in Italy and Cyprus (both 62%). As before, respondents in both of these latter countries are however more likely to say that the euro has been a good thing for the EU than in Q1.1 Generally speaking, do you think that...? Having the euro is a good or a bad thing for your country (ONE ANSWER ONLY) 5 Q1.2 Generally speaking, do you think that...? Having the euro is a good or a bad thing for the EU (ONE ANSWER ONLY) 2

6 Seven in ten respondents say that the euro has not changed their feeling of being European Just over a quarter of respondents (27%) say that the euro makes them feel more European than before. However, for the large majority seven in ten respondents (70%) the euro has not changed their feeling of being European. Since 2016 there has been a small increase in the proportion of respondents who say that the euro makes them feel more European than before (+3 percentage points); and a small decline in the proportion saying that the euro has not changed their feeling of being European (-4 pp). Q2 Does the euro make you personally feel more European than before or would you say that your feeling of being European has not changed? (% - EURO AREA) 90% 80% % NOTHING HAS CHANGED 60% 50% 40% 30% YES, MORE EUROPEAN 20% 10% DON'T KNOW 0% 09/2007 (EU13) 09/2008 (EU15) 09/2009 (EU16) 09/2010 (EU16) 11/2011 (EU17) 10/2012 (EU17) 10/2013 (EU17) 10/2014 (EU18) 10/2015 (EU19) 10/2016 (EU19) 10/2017 (EU19) Focusing on the current national picture, the majority of respondents across all countries of the euro area do not think that the euro has made them feel more European than before. Countries where respondents are most likely to think that the euro does make them feel more European are Malta (43%), Luxembourg (35%) and Austria (34%), followed by Germany and Ireland (both 33%). Respondents are least likely to hold this view in Greece (17%) and the Netherlands (19%). 3

7 II. EURO COINS AND BANKNOTES Eight in ten respondents find euro coins easy to distinguish and handle Eight in ten respondents (81%) say that it is easy (either very easy or rather easy ) to distinguish and handle euro coins when paying with cash 6. Just over two-fifths (42%) feel it is very easy, with slightly fewer (39%) saying it is rather easy. Among the minority of respondents (18%) who find it difficult to distinguish and handle coins, most say it is rather difficult (15%), with only 3% saying they find it very difficult. Q3a.2 When you pay cash, would you say that it is: very easy, rather easy, rather difficult or very difficult to distinguish and handle.. Euro coins (% - EURO AREA) 100% 90% 80% % TOTAL 'EASY' 60% 50% 40% 30% % TOTAL 'DIFFICULT' 10% % 11/ / / / / / / / / / / / / /2016 (EU12) (EU12) (EU12) (EU12) (EU13) (EU15) (EU16) (EU16) (EU17) (EU17) (EU17) (EU18) (EU19) (EU19) NEITHER EASY NOR DIFFICULT (SPONTANEOUS) 0 DON'T KNOW 10/2017 (EU19) Focusing on the current national picture, at least two-thirds of respondents in every country think that it is easy to distinguish and handle euro coins. Respondents in Greece and Finland (both 93%), Portugal (92%) and Spain (91%) are most likely to hold this view. The countries where respondents are most likely to express difficulties with distinguishing and handling coins are Germany and Lithuania (both 26%) and Estonia (24%). However, in each of these countries, only a small minority of respondents say they find it very difficult. The lowest value coins cause the most difficulties People are much more likely to say that they experience difficulties handling and distinguishing coins of lower value than they do the higher value denominations. Among respondents who said that they experience difficulties handling and distinguishing euro coins, the majority say that they experience difficulties with the 2-cent coin (70%) and the 1-cent coin (61%). Just under half of this group (48%) report difficulties with the 5-cent coin; a little over two-fifths (42%) the 20-cent coin; around a third (34%) the 10-cent coin; and one in four (26%) the 50-cent coin. Much smaller minorities mention difficulties with the 1-euro (13%) and 2-euro coins (12%). These results are very similar to those reported in Q3a.2 When you pay cash, would you say that it is: very easy, rather easy, rather difficult or very difficult to distinguish and handle Euro coins (ONE ANSWER ONLY) 4

8 60% of respondents think the number of euro coins is just right, while around a third think there are too many Three-fifths of respondents (60%) think that the number of different value coins is just right; just over a third (34%) that there are too many coins with different values; and only 3% that there are not enough. Q4a Do you consider that there are too many or, on the contrary, not enough euro coins with different values or do you consider that there are just the right number? (% - EURO AREA) 80% 70% 60% JUST THE RIGHT NUMBER 50% 40% 38 30% TOO MANY 20% 10% NOT ENOUGH 0% DON'T KNOW / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2017 (EU12) (EU12) (EU12) (EU12) (EU13) (EU15) (EU16) (EU16) (EU17) (EU17) (EU17) (EU18) (EU19) (EU19) (EU19) Views on whether the number of euro coins is right or not vary somewhat between euro area countries, although the majority of respondents in all but two think that the number of euro coins is just right. This view is most widespread in Finland (87%) and Latvia (82%), with at least seven in ten respondents holding this opinion in a further five countries. In the two exception countries: half of respondents think that the number of coins is right in Belgium (50%) while they are 41% in Italy. Just under two-thirds of respondents are in favour of abolishing 1-cent and 2-cent euro coins Although the majority of respondents (60%) say that the number of euro coins with different values is just right (reported in the previous section), when prompted with the idea of abolishing 1-cent and 2-cent coins, nearly two-thirds of respondents (64%) say that they are in favour of abolishing these lowest denomination coins, with prices rounded to the nearest 5 cents. A third (33%) are not in favour of abolishing these coins. Focusing on the national picture in 2017, the majority of respondents in all but two euro area countries say that they are in favour of abolishing the 1-cent and 2-cent coins. 5

9 Almost all respondents find euro banknotes easy to distinguish and handle Respondents are more likely to find it easy to distinguish and handle euro banknotes than euro coins. More than nine in ten respondents (94%) say that it is easy (either very easy or rather easy ) to distinguish and handle euro banknotes when paying with cash 7. Just under three-fifths (59%) find it very easy, with just over a third (35%) saying it is rather easy. Only a very small minority of respondents (3%) find it difficult to distinguish and handle euro banknotes. Q3a.1 When you pay cash, would you say that it is: very easy, rather easy, rather difficult or very difficult to distinguish and handle.. Euro bank notes (% - EURO AREA) 100% 90% TOTAL 'EASY' 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % 11/2003 (EU12) 11/2004 (EU12) 10/2005 (EU12) 09/2006 (EU12) 09/2007 (EU13) 09/2008 (EU15) /2009 (EU16) 09/2010 (EU16) /2011 (EU17) 10/2012 (EU17) 10/2013 (EU17) Focusing on the current national picture, in almost all euro area countries (17), at least nine in ten respondents think that it is easy to distinguish and handle euro banknotes. 10/2014 (EU18) 10/2015 (EU19) 10/2016 (EU19) 10/2017 (EU19) TOTAL 'DIFFICULT' NEITHER EASY NOR DIFFICULT (SPONTANEOUS) DON'T KNOW 7 Q3a.1 When you pay cash, would you say that it is: very easy, rather easy, rather difficult or very difficult to distinguish and handle Euro bank notes (ONE ANSWER ONLY) 6

10 III. THE IMPACT OF THE EURO ON PRICES AND OTHER MACROECONOMIC ASSESSMENTS On 1 January 2014, Latvia joined the euro area, becoming the 18th country within the 28 EU More than three-quarters of respondents in Latvia, and almost all respondents in Lithuania, think that there were price increases during the changeover period More than three-quarters (77%) of respondents in Latvia think that there were price increases during the changeover period. Just under two-fifths (38%) say that all prices were increased, with a similar proportion (39%) thinking that prices increased only in some categories. Just under a fifth of respondents (18%) think prices stayed more or less the same, with a very small minority (2%) saying prices decreased in some categories. In Lithuania, almost all respondents (94%) think that there were price increases during the changeover period. Two-thirds (67%) say that all prices were increased, with just over a quarter (27%) thinking that prices increased in some categories. Only one in twenty respondents (5%) think prices stayed more or less the same, with very few (<0.5%) thinking prices decreased in some categories. Half of respondents think the euro has made travelling easier and less costly Half of respondents (50%) say that the euro has made travelling easier and less costly, with more than a third (36%) saying it has not. A sizeable share of respondents (14%) are not able to say whether or not the euro has made travelling easier and less costly. Looking at the national picture in 2017, there are 12 euro area countries in which the majority of respondents think that the euro has made travelling easier and less costly, with this view most widespread in Ireland (89%), Latvia (69%), Estonia (67%) and Finland and Germany (both 63%). It is least likely to be a view held in Italy (33%), in Slovenia (40%) and in Slovakia (41%). Italy is the only country where the majority of respondents (52%) say that the euro has not made travelling easier and less costly. 7

11 Opinion is evenly split between those who think the euro has reduced banking charges when travelling abroad and those who think it has not Opinion is evenly divided on whether the euro has reduced banking charges when travelling in different EU countries. Just over a third (35%) of respondents say charges have reduced, with a similar proportion (36%) saying charges have not reduced. Three in ten respondents (29%) are unable to express a view on this. Looking at the national picture in 2017, there are only three countries in which the majority of respondents think that the euro has reduced banking charges when travelling in other EU countries: Malta (64%), Ireland (62%) and the Netherlands (52%). It is least likely to be the view held in Estonia and Lithuania (both 23%). More than three-fifths of respondents do not convert prices into their old national currency The majority of respondents (63%) say that they do not convert euro to their former national currency when they are buying things. Just fewer than one in five respondents (18%) say they convert euro to their former currency when making common purchases, such as day-to-day shopping, and around one in seven (15%) say they do so when making exceptional purchases, such as the purchase of a car or a house. Q6 Today, when you are buying things, do you tend to convert from the price in euro to the (OLD NATIONAL CURRENCY) when it concerns: (% - EURO AREA) It depends (SPONTANEOUS) 3 You don't remember the value of the previous currency (SPONTANEOUS) 1 Yes, for common purchases such as day-to-day shopping 18 No, not at all 63 Yes, for exceptional purchases such as the purchase of a car or a house 15 Focusing on the national picture in 2017, it is perhaps not surprising that respondents in Lithuania (the most recent Member State to adopt the euro) are the most likely to say that they convert prices from euro to their old currency, with half (50%) compared with the euro area average of 33% saying that they do this. Respondents are also particularly likely to say that they convert prices to their former currency in Belgium (44%) and Austria (41%) 8

12 Two-thirds of respondents think there should be more coordination of economic policy Two thirds of respondents (67%) say that there should be more coordination on economic policy among euro area governments, while one in eight respondents (12%) think that the degree of policy coordination is appropriate and 7% say that there should be less coordination. One in seven respondents (14%) are unable to express an opinion. Looking at the national picture in 2017, there are 13 countries where the majority of respondents say that there should be more economic policy coordination among euro area governments, with this view most widespread in Greece (80%), Italy (77%) and Portugal (75%). Comparing the results with those from 2016, the proportion of respondents who agree that there is the appropriate level of coordination on economic policy among euro area governments has increased in 16 countries, with the largest increase observed in Ireland (+10 percentage points), followed by the Netherlands and Cyprus (+6 pp in each). Less than one in four respondents think economic policy coordination has been strengthened in recent years, with around one in three saying it has been weakened Respondents are most likely to say that EU economic policy coordination has been weakened in recent years (34%). Just under one in four respondents (23%) say EU policy coordination has been strengthened, with a slightly larger proportion (26%) thinking EU policy coordination has not changed in recent years. A notable proportion of respondents (17%) are unable to express an opinion. The proportion of respondents thinking that EU economic policy coordination has been weakened in recent years increased between 2015 and 2016, from 38% to 46%, before dropping back again to 34% in

13 Opinion is evenly divided between those who think inflation will be higher and those who think it will remain the same Two-fifths of respondents (40%) expect this year s inflation rate to be higher than last year, with a similar proportion (40%) saying they expect it to remain the same. One in ten respondents (10%) expect this year s inflation rate to be lower than last year s, and a similar proportion (10%) are unable to express a view. There are four countries where at least half of respondents think this year s rate will be higher: Austria (57%), Estonia (53%), Latvia (51%) and Lithuania (50%). Countries where respondents are least likely to say that the inflation rate this year will be higher are Cyprus (26%) and Portugal (28%). 10

14 IV. ECONOMIC REFORMS AND OTHER SECTORIAL REFORMS TO BOOST GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT The interviewer explained to the respondent that governments in all euro area countries are implementing various economic reforms such as labour market reforms, reforms to pensions, social security, healthcare and education systems, and market reforms to open sectors to competition. The interviewer then read out a series of four statements about such reforms, and asked the respondent to what extent they agreed or disagreed with each. The majority of respondents agree that there is a need for significant reforms to improve economic performance or that there is a need to save more money to prepare public finances for the ageing population Eight in ten respondents (79%) agree that there is a need for significant reforms to improve the performance of the national economy, with around two in five (39%) saying that they totally agree. At least two-thirds of respondents in all countries of the euro area agree that there is a need for significant reforms to improve the performance of their economy. This view is most widespread in Lithuania (90%), Italy (88%) and Cyprus and Luxembourg (both 88%). Three-quarters of respondents (75%) agree that governments need to save more today in order to prepare public finances for the ageing populations, with almost half (48%) saying that they totally agree. Over two-thirds of respondents across all countries agree that governments need to save more today in order to prepare public finances for the ageing populations, with this view most widespread in Ireland (92%), Malta (90%), Portugal (89%) and Luxembourg (85%). Opinion is more evenly divided on whether successful reforms in other euro area countries have facilitated reforms in the respondent s own. Just over two-fifths of respondents (42%) agree, with around one in eight (12%) saying they totally agree. There are only six euro area countries where the majority of respondents agree that successful reforms in other euro area countries have facilitated reforms in their own country: Ireland (60%), Luxembourg (59%), Malta (55%), Portugal (54%), Belgium (53%) and the Netherlands (52%). The majority of respondents (73%) disagree that the retirement age should be increased to ensure the sustainability of the pension system, with more than half (54%) saying they totally disagree. Just under a quarter of respondents (24%) agree that the retirement age should be increased, but only one in ten (10%) say they totally agree. Only a minority of respondents in all countries of the euro area agree that the retirement age should be increased to ensure the sustainability of the pension system, with this view most widespread in Ireland (44%), Austria, Luxembourg and France (all 36%) and Belgium (33%). 11

15 Most respondents think that it is important for their government to introduce reforms in each of the six public service sectors and the utility sector to boost growth and employment Across the seven different specific sectors asked about, the majority of respondents think that it is important for their government to introduce reforms to boost growth and employment. Around nine in ten respondents hold this view in relation to: the health system and the education systems (both 91%), the labour market (90%) and the pension system (89%). Respondents are somewhat less likely to think it is important for the government to introduce reforms in the areas of social security (87%) and tax (82%). For each of these areas, more than two thirds of respondents in every country think that it is important that their national government implements reforms to help increase growth and employment. However, respondents are much less likely to think it is important for the government to introduce market reforms to help boost growth and employment (63%). There is only one country where eight in ten respondents think that it is important for the government to introduce market reforms: Malta (80%). This is also the only country where the majority of respondents (57%) think that the introduction of such reforms is very important. There are further four euro area countries where at least three-quarters of respondents say that it is important for the government to introduce market reforms: Portugal (79%), Cyprus (78%), Greece (76%) and Spain (75%). It is least likely to be the view of respondents in Austria (49%). 12

16 The table below shows, for each of the euro area countries, which of the seven reforms people mentioned most frequently as ones that were important to reform, as well as those cited second and third most frequently. Q12 In your opinion, how important is it that the government in (OUR COUNTRY) should introduce reforms in each of the following areas to help increase growth and employment? (%) Health system Education systems Labour market Pension system Social security system Taxation Market reforms, as in telecom, gas/electricity (e.g. opening sectors for free competition, EURO AREA BE DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU MT NL AT PT SI SK FI st MOST FREQUENTLY MENTIONED ITEM 2nd MOST FREQUENTLY MENTIONED ITEM 3rd MOST FREQUENTLY MENTIONED ITEM 13