Flash Eurobarometer N o 189a EU communication and the citizens. Analytical Report. Fieldwork: April 2008 Report: May 2008

Transcription

1 Gallup Flash Eurobarometer N o 189a EU communication and the citizens Flash Eurobarometer European Commission Expectations of European citizens regarding the social reality in 20 years time Analytical Report Flash Eurobarometer 227 The Gallup Organization Fieldwork: April 2008 Report: May 2008 This survey was requested by Directorate-General Employment and coordinated by Directorate-General Communication This document does not represent the point of view of the European Commission. The interpretations and opinions contained in it are solely those of the authors. Analytical Report, page 1

2 Flash Eurobarometer Series #227 Expectations of European citizens regarding the social reality in 20 years time Survey conducted by The Gallup Organization Hungary upon the request of Directorate- General Employment Coordinated by Directorate-General Communication This document does not reflect the views of the European Commission. The interpretations and opinions contained in it are solely those of the authors. THE GALLUP ORGANIZATION

3 Analytical report Flash EB N o 227 Future Social Reality Table of Contents Table of Contents... 3 Introduction... 4 Main findings Expectations about people s lives in 20 years time Expectations regarding social conditions in 20 years time Extention of working lives Job opportunities and level of qualification Gender-based equal opportunities at work Impact on income of competition from rising economies Improvement pespectives of working conditions Merit-based chances in life Universal access to education and training Social fracture Affordibility of medical treatment Affordable housing Equal sharing of daily household tasks Family ties Quality of life and technological progress Relations between people from different backgrounds Time contribution to social causes Innovative ways of political decision-making participation Socio-demographic analysis of citizens long-term expectations about social conditions Perspectives for future policy making Strengthening of environmental protection Strengthening of public support for social cause work Focusing policies on decreasing the social gap Caring for elderly and sick people as a task for the whole of society Switch of emphasis from individual consumption to overall quality of life Independent, self-sustainable development for Europe Higher taxes for better public services Social solidarity with families raising children Socio-demographic analysis of differences in perspectives for future politicy-making I. Annex Tables II. Survey Details III. Questionnaire page 3

4 Flash EB N o 227 Future Social Reality Analytical report Introduction This survey (Flash Eurobarometer 227: Expectations of European citizens regarding the social reality in 20 years time) was conducted in order to measure: expectations of EU citizens regarding people s lives in 20 years time, their expectations about social conditions in their country in 20 years time, and their ment with socio-political choices that could impact society s long-term future. The charts in the report present the results for the EU27 and for each individual Member State, as well as results broken down by the following socio-demographic variables: Sex (male; female), Age (15-24; 25-39; 40-54; 55+), Education (age when finished full-time education: until 15 years of age; 16-20; +20; still in education), Subjective urbanisation (metropolitan; urban; rural), Occupation (self-employed; employee; manual worker; not working). The survey s fieldwork was carried out between the 9 th and 13 th April Over 25,000 randomly selected individuals were interviewed across the EU. The survey was carried out by telephone, with WebCATI (web-based computer assisted telephone interviewing). To correct for sampling disparities, a post-stratification weighting of the results was implemented, based on socio-demographic variables. page 4

5 Analytical report Flash EB N o 227 Future Social Reality Main findings EU citizens, when asked about their expectations for people s lives in their country in 20 years time, tend to be more pessimistic than optimistic: o Almost half of the interviewees (49) thought that life would be worse compared to what it is now. Less than four out of 10 European citizens (38) anticipated that life in their country would be better in 20 years time. o Respondents in the New Member States (NMS) were significantly more optimistic than respondents in the older Member States (EU15) they more frequently expected that people s life would get better (59 vs. 32 in the EU15) and were less likely to say it would get worse (24 vs. 56). o Optimism about people s lives in 20 years time decreased with age, but increased with educational attainment and the degree of urbanisation. When presented with statements about their expectations regarding social conditions in different domains, or social reality, in 20 years time: o EU citizens were most likely to that, in 20 years time, the gap between the rich and the poor in one s country would be wider (82) and that people s working lives would be extended (80). They were, however, least likely to think that people would give more time to others and to social causes in this time frame (37 d). o The individual country results about people s expectations regarding social conditions in 20 years time showed large discrepancies. The statement about the improvement or worsening of working conditions in 20 years time yielded the greatest variation (the total level of ment ranged from 31 in Austria to 85 in Estonia), whereas the statement about young people s chances in life in 20 years time induced the least variation (the total level of ment ranged from 65 in Germany to 82 in Denmark). o Men, year-olds, the highly-educated and city dwellers tended to be more positive about the future outlook these respondents more frequently d with the statements describing a more positive outlook for the future and more often d with the ones presenting a negative outlook. Survey participants were presented with a set of political choices on socio-economic and environmental policy options and asked whether they d or d that those policies should be carried out over the long-term in their country: o While a majority of respondents d on most of the suggested political choices, e.g. policies aiming at a better protection of the environment or at guaranteeing a greater support for people working for social causes, only a minority d about suggestions that would lead to taxes being introduced to finance those policies. o The policies that nearly all respondents (approximately 90) wanted to be carried out by the future political class were stricter rules for the protection of the environment, greater support for people who give time to social causes and the prevention of an everwidening social gap between the rich and the poor in their own country. o The fear of the long-term impoverishment of whole segments of society seemed to be particularly deeply felt as nearly half of respondents across Europe d strongly that future policies should aim to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor in their own country (44). page 5

6 Flash EB N o 227 Future Social Reality Analytical report 1. Expectations about people s lives in 20 years time When EU citizens were asked about their expectations for people s lives in 20 years time, slightly less than four out of 10 (38) anticipated that life in their country would be better than today. Nevertheless, almost half of the interviewees (49) thought that life in their country would be worse compared to the current situation. Finally, one in 10 respondents (9) answered spontaneously that they did not expect any change: they said that people s lives in their country would be neither better nor worse compared to today. We observed a large variation in the opinions expressed in the different Member States. A first glance at the rankings showed that respondents in the New Member States (NMS) were more optimistic than respondents in the older Member States (EU15). Six out of 10 respondents (59) in the NMS anticipated that life in their country would be better in 20 years time than today and only 24 thought the opposite. The corresponding result for the EU15 was almost a mirror image, with just 32 expecting an improvement and 56 thinking that life would get worse. Better than today Worse than today People s lives in 20 years time Neither better nor worse; 9 Worse than today; 49 Neither better nor worse DK/NA; 5 DK/NA EU NMS Better than today; 38 Q1. Overall, in 20 years time, would you say that people s lives in [OUR COUNTRY] will be better than today, or worse than today? Base: all respondents EU27 All but one of the NMS had a proportion of respondents above the EU27 average of 38 who expected that people s lives in their country would be better in 20 years time, while nine of the EU15 countries scored lower than that average. Cyprus was the exception in the NMS, with a slightly lower proportion than the EU27 average (33). The most significant exception among the EU15 countries was Ireland, with two-thirds of respondents (67) thinking that people s lives would be better than today only the Estonians were more optimistic than the Irish. People s lives in 20 years time Better than today Worse than today Neither better nor worse DK/NA EE IE RO SK LT PL MT BG LV SE DK ES SI CZ HU FI NL EU27 UK CY IT PT EL FR LU AT BE DE Q1. Overall, in 20 years time, would you say that people s lives in [OUR COUNTRY] will be better than today, or worse than today? Base: all respondents by country page 6

7 Analytical report Flash EB N o 227 Future Social Reality Estonian citizens were the most optimistic with 78 who expected people s lives to be better in 20 years time than today. The Germans, on the other hand, were the least optimistic only one in five expected that life in Germany would improve in the long-term. Other countries with high expectations were, for example, Ireland and Romania (67 and 64, respectively), while Belgium (21), Austria (23) and Luxembourg (24) joined Germany at the lower end of the distribution with less than one in four respondents who believed that there would be a positive change in people s lives. The proportion of respondents who thought that life in their country would be worse in 20 years time ranged from 11 in Estonia to 68 in Germany. The countries with results very close to those of Germany and Estonia, however, differed from the countries mentioned in the previous paragraph. In Greece and France, 67 and 64, respectively, of respondents thought life would become worse, while only 17 of Romanian and 19 of both Slovakian and Latvian respondents expected that outcome. Finally, looking at the proportions of respondents who expected that people s lives would be neither better nor worse in 20 years time, it was noted that Latvian respondents were the most likely to give this answer (21), while almost none of the respondents in Greece (3) and Estonia (4) expected a status quo. Socio-demographic considerations The socio-demographic analysis showed that men were more likely to expect that people s lives would be better in 20 years time (42 compared to 34 of women), while women were less optimistic and more often thought that life in their country would be worse compared to the current situation (52 compared to 46 of men). There was no difference in the proportions of men and women who did not expect any change. It was also noted that optimism about people s lives in 20 years time decreased with age. Thirty-one percent of respondents 55 and over thought that life would be better in 20 years time and more than half of them (52) expected life to get worse. In comparison, 47 of the youngest respondents (between 15 and 24 years of age) expected life to get better and a slightly lower proportion (42) thought the opposite. Again, there was no difference in the proportions that expected no change. This optimism about people s lives in 20 years time, on the other hand, increased with educational attainment and the degree of urbanisation. Looking at the former, while only one in four of the leasteducated respondents thought that life in their country would be better in 20 years time, this rose to 46 for those with the highest levels of education. One in three inhabitants of rural areas (34) expected life to get better compared to four out of 10 city dwellers (40 in urban areas and 43 in metropolitan areas). Finally, for occupational status, only smaller differences were noted in expectations for peoples lives in 20 years time. Nevertheless, self-employed respondents and employees (both 41) were slightly more optimistic, i.e. by expecting that life would be better in the future, than manual workers (37) and those not working (36). For further details, please see Annex table No. 1b. page 7

8 Flash EB N o 227 Future Social Reality Analytical report 2. Expectations regarding social conditions in 20 years time EU citizens were then presented with statements about expectations regarding social conditions, or social reality, in 20 years time and asked whether they d or d with them. Respondents were the most likely to with the statements saying that, in 20 years time: the gap between the rich and the poor in one s country would be wider (82) and, people s working lives would be extended (80). Forty percent of respondents strongly d with the former statement, and a similar proportion of 43 strongly d with the latter. For the following six statements, seven out of 10 respondents d and around four out of 10 respondents d: it will be more difficult to find affordable housing, even highly-qualified people will have no guarantee of finding a good job, many people will not be able to afford the medical treatment that they need, young people s chances will depend less on their family and social background, opportunities at work will be more equal for women and men, men will take a more equal share of the daily household tasks. Focusing on the proportion of strong ment, we found that EU citizens were slightly more likely to strongly with the statements about affordable housing (32), the chances of highly-qualified people finding a good job (30) and the availability of affordable medical treatment (29) than with the statements about chances in life for young people (24), equal opportunities at work for men and women (19) and men s share of the daily household tasks (19). Expections regarding social conditions in 20 years time Agree Dis DK/NA The gap between the rich and the poor will be wider People will work until a later age Even people with high qualifications will have no guarantee for a good job Opportunities at work will be more equal for women and men Young people's chances will depend less on their family background Many people will not be able to afford the medical treatment they need Men will take a more equal share of the daily tasks at home It will be more difficult to find affordable housing Family ties will be weaker Access to education and training will be easier for everyone People will earn less because of competition from rising economies There will be more harmonious relations between all people Working conditions will be better Thanks to technological progress, people will have a better quality of life There will be new ways to participate in political decision making People will give more time to others and to social causes Q2. Thinking about [OUR COUNTRY] in, let s say, 20 years time, do you strongly,, or strongly with the following statements? In 20 years time,... Base: all respondents; EU27 page 8

9 Analytical report Flash EB N o 227 Future Social Reality For the last eight statements, we observed a lower level of ment. Six out of 10 respondents (61) d that family ties would be weaker in 20 years time (20 strongly d and 41 d). Fifty-eight percent of EU citizens d that access to education and training would be easier for all (15 strongly d and 43 d), and 57 d that earnings would be lower because of the competition from rising economies (19 strongly d and 38 d). Slightly more than half of the respondents d that there would be greater harmony between people from different cultural or religious backgrounds and nationalities (55) and that working conditions would be better in 20 years time (51), while slightly less than half of the respondents d that people would have a better quality of life thanks to technological progress (49) or that there would be new ways of allowing people to be more involved in political decision-making (47). This last statement was also the most difficult to answer one in 10 respondents had no opinion or did not know what to answer. Finally, relatively speaking, EU citizens were least likely to think that people would give more time to others and to social causes in 20 years time. Nonetheless, 37 of respondents still d with this statement (7 strongly d and 30 d). 2.1 Extention of working lives Looking at the individual country results, it was noted that in all EU Member States a majority of citizens expected that in 20 years time, people s working lives would be extended, while in almost all EU Member States less than one in three respondents thought the opposite. Agreement with the statement that people would need to work longer was the highest in France, with 93 of respondents ing with the statement, followed by Greece (91) and Austria (90). The French were also the most likely to strongly (61), together with the Italians (60). Other countries where more than half of respondents strongly d were the Czech Republic and the UK (both 53). Focusing on the other end of the distribution where there was less ment we found that in Spain and Lithuania, 56 and 57, respectively, d that in 20 years time people would be working until a later age. Spanish respondents were also the least likely to strongly (8), followed by respondents in Cyprus (10), Denmark and the Netherlands (both 12). People will work until a later age Agree Dis DK/NA FR EL AT UK SI CZ NL DE IT HU MT SK EU27 IE BE PT LU SE DK LV FI EE CY PL RO BG LT ES Q2. Thinking about [OUR COUNTRY] in, let s say, 20 years time, do you strongly,, or strongly with the following statements? In 20 years time,... Base: all respondents by country page 9

10 Flash EB N o 227 Future Social Reality Analytical report 2.2 Job opportunities and level of qualification Respondents in Greece (87), the UK and Portugal (both 86) were the most likely to that even if people were highly qualified, there would be no guarantee that they would find a good job. Furthermore, slightly more than half of British respondents (51) strongly d with this statement. The Italian interviewees were the least optimistic, with 57 who strongly d. Respondents in Lithuania, on the other hand, were the most optimistic about the likelihood of highlyqualified people finding a good job, as half d with the statement and only 44 d. Latvia and the Netherlands followed with, respectively, 42 and 43 who d with this statement, compared to 55 who d. Finally, looking at the proportions of respondents who strongly d, it was noted that only 5 of the Dutch respondents and 7 of Danish respondents expressed their strong ment. Even if people have high educational qualifications, there will be no guarantee that they will find a good job 100 Agree Dis DK/NA EL UK PT CY FR IT SE SI LU FI EU27 IE BE HU AT CZ DE EE MT PL SK ES BG RO DK NL LV LT Q2. Thinking about [OUR COUNTRY] in, let s say, 20 years time, do you strongly,, or strongly with the following statements? In 20 years time,... Base: all respondents by country 2.3 Gender-based equal opportunities at work In comparison with most other statements, the individual country results for the statement about more equal opportunities at work for men and women showed a lesser degree of variation. The proportion of respondents who d that opportunities at work for men and women would be more equal in 20 years time ranged from 62 in Hungary and Austria to 89 in Malta, and the proportion of respondents who strongly d ranged from 7 in Germany to 31 in Italy. Agreement that there would be more equality in opportunities at work for men and women was the highest in Malta (89), followed by Ireland (83) and Spain (82). Furthermore, of these three Member States, Ireland had the highest proportion of respondents who strongly d (24). The Italian and British respondents, however, were again the most likely to strongly with the statement (31 and 30, respectively). In almost all countries, less than one in three respondents d that opportunities at work would be more equal for men and women. The exceptions were Hungary and Austria, where 36 of interviewees d. Nonetheless, even in these countries more than six respondents out of 10 d with the statement (62 in both countries). page 10

11 Analytical report Flash EB N o 227 Future Social Reality Opportunities at work will be more equal for women and men Agree Dis DK/NA MT IE ES NL DK BE CY SE UK LU FI EE FR PT EU27 BG LV IT RO SK LT DE EL PL CZ SI AT HU Q2. Thinking about [OUR COUNTRY] in, let s say, 20 years time, do you strongly,, or strongly with the following statements? In 20 years time,... Base: all respondents by country 2.4 Impact on income of competition from rising economies When EU citizens were asked if they expected to earn less in 20 years time because of the competition from the rising economies, it was noted that respondents in almost all Member States thought that this was less likely to happen than the other statements about work and working conditions. Furthermore, in comparison with most other statements, slightly more respondents either did not have an opinion or did not know how to answer this question. Focusing on the higher end of the distribution with the highest levels of ment it was noted that 77 of Greek respondents d that people would earn less in 20 years time because of the competition from rising economies. In Germany, Cyprus (both 69) and France (68), slightly less than seven out of 10 respondents expressed their ment with the statement. Finally, respondents in France and Italy were the most likely to strongly (33 and 35, respectively). On the other hand, in Lithuania, Romania and Estonia less than one in three interviewees d that people would earn less due to more competition from the rising economies, while slightly less than six out of 10 d (30 vs. 59 in Lithuania, 31 vs. 58 in Romania and 32 vs. 57 in Estonia). Additionally, one in five Romanians strongly d with the statement; however, only 11 of Latvians and 7 of Estonians strongly d. Finally, slightly more than one in 10 Lithuanian, Romanian and Estonian respondents did not have an opinion or were not able to answer this question. page 11

12 Flash EB N o 227 Future Social Reality Analytical report People will earn less than today because of competition from rising economies, such as China, India and Brazil Agree Dis DK/NA EL DE CY FR LU PT BE IE IT UK AT SI EU27 ES SE FI HU NL DK MT CZ LV BG PL SK EE RO LT Q2. Thinking about [OUR COUNTRY] in, let s say, 20 years time, do you strongly,, or strongly with the following statements? In 20 years time,... Base: all respondents by country 2.5 Improvement pespectives of working conditions In comparison with the other statements, the individual country results for the statement about working conditions in 20 years time showed the greatest variation. The total level of ment ranged from 31 in Austria to 85 in Estonia (a difference of 54 percentage points, compared to, for example, a smaller difference of 27 percentage point between the lowest and highest level of ment for the statement about opportunities at work for men and women). The Member States with the highest expectations in terms of better working conditions in 20 years time were Estonia (85 of respondents d with the statement), Lithuania (77), Ireland (76) and Romania (73), while the Member States with the lowest expectations were Austria (31), Germany (32), France and Greece (both 35). Estonian and Romanian respondents were the most likely to strongly (29 and 25, respectively) and the French respondents were by far the most likely to strongly (26), followed by respondents in Luxembourg (19) and Austria (18). Working conditions will be better Agree Dis DK/NA EE LT IE RO LV PL MT BG SK DK CZ CY UK ES NL FI HU EU27 SE IT SI PT BE LU EL FR DE AT Q2. Thinking about [OUR COUNTRY] in, let s say, 20 years time, do you strongly,, or strongly with the following statements? In 20 years time,... Base: all respondents by country page 12

13 Analytical report Flash EB N o 227 Future Social Reality 2.6 Merit-based chances in life In comparison with the other statements, the individual country results for the statement about young people s chances in life in 20 years time showed the least variation. The total level of ment ranged from 65 in Germany to 82 in Denmark (a difference of 17 percentage points, compared to, for example, a 54-percentage point difference between the lowest and highest level of ment for the statement about better working conditions). Respondents in Denmark (82), the Netherlands (80) and Malta (79) were the most likely to that young people s chances in life would depend much more on their own efforts and less on their family and social background. However, it was the Belgians (35), Latvians and Italians (both 34) who were the most likely to strongly with the statement. Although Italy had one of the highest proportions of respondents who strongly d with this statement, the country was one of the lowest in terms of its total level of ment; two-thirds (67) of the Italian respondents d that young people s chances in life would depend much less on their family and social background in 20 years time. Only Germany (65), Hungary and Greece (both 66) had a lower level of ment than Italy. Young people s chances in life will depend much more on their own efforts and less on their family and social background Agree Dis DK/NA DK NL MT PL BE SE SK LT BG LV EE IE CZ RO FI AT PT SI LU CY EU27 UK FR ES IT EL HU DE Q2. Thinking about [OUR COUNTRY] in, let s say, 20 years time, do you strongly,, or strongly with the following statements? In 20 years time,... Base: all respondents by country 2.7 Universal access to education and training We also observed a large variation in the country results for the statement about access to education and training becoming easier for everyone in 20 years time: the total level of ment ranged from 36 in Germany to 86 in Malta. Ireland, Spain, Cyprus and Denmark joined Malta at the higher end of the distribution with more respondents who believed that access to education would be easier for everyone in 20 years time. Although more than seven out of 10 respondents in the above-mentioned countries d with the statement (79 in Ireland, 76 in Spain, 74 in Cyprus and 71 in Denmark), only one in five, or less than one in five, of their respondents strongly d with it (20 in Ireland, 16 in Malta, 13 in Spain, 12 in Cyprus and 10 in Denmark). Germany was the only country where more than half of the interviewees d that access to education would be easier for everyone; 62 d (10 strongly d and 52 d). page 13

14 Flash EB N o 227 Future Social Reality Analytical report Other countries with less optimistic expectations in terms of access to education were Slovenia, Latvia and Hungary in these countries, 50, 49 and 48, respectively, d with the statement. Access to education and training will be easier for everyone Agree Dis DK/NA MT IE ES CY DK IT PT EE UK SK RO LU PL NL CZ SE BE EU27 LT BG FI FR AT EL SI HU LV DE Q2. Thinking about [OUR COUNTRY] in, let s say, 20 years time, do you strongly,, or strongly with the following statements? In 20 years time,... Base: all respondents by country 2.8 Social fracture Agreement with the statement that the gap between the rich and the poor in one s country would be wider in 20 years time ranged from slightly more than half (53) of respondents in Malta to 90 in Austria and Germany. Spain (64), Lithuania (65) and Estonia (66) joined Malta at the lower end of the distribution with less than two out of three respondents who d that the gap between the rich and the poor in their country would be wider. In Malta, only one in 10 respondents strongly d with this statement; however, in Spain (14), Lithuania (21) and Estonia (22) slightly more respondents strongly d. Another country with a very low proportion of respondents who strongly d was the Netherlands (11). Other countries at the higher end of the distribution with more respondents ing that the gap between the rich and the poor in their country would be wider in 20 years time were France, Portugal (both 88), Greece and Finland (both 87). The French were also the most likely to strongly with the statement (56), followed by Italian citizens (54) it was only in these two countries that more than half of the respondents strongly d with the statement. page 14

15 Analytical report Flash EB N o 227 Future Social Reality The gap between the rich and the poor in [OUR COUNTRY] will be wider Agree Dis DK/NA DE AT FR PT EL FI BE CZ LU SI HU UK EU27 CY SE IT SK PL RO IE LV BG NL DK EE LT ES MT Q2. Thinking about [OUR COUNTRY] in, let s say, 20 years time, do you strongly,, or strongly with the following statements? In 20 years time,... Base: all respondents by country 2.9 Affordibility of medical treatment Greek and Portuguese citizens were the most likely to that in 20 years time many people would not be able to afford necessary medical treatment. In both Member States, the total level of ment was 84; however, the Greek respondents were more likely than the Portuguese to strongly (37 vs. 24). The same concern about the availability of adequate healthcare was also very high in some other countries, for example, 82 of Germans shared this disquiet. The proportion of interviewees who strongly d with this statement was the highest in Belgium and France (both 43). Respondents in the Netherlands (5), Denmark (6), Malta and Spain (both 8) were the least likely to strongly that in 20 years time their citizens would not be able to afford necessary medical treatment. These same countries, together with Luxembourg, also had the lowest overall level of ment; 46 of Danes, 48 of Luxembourgers and 50 of both Maltese and Spanish citizens d with the statement. When looking at the proportions of respondents who d, the Maltese stood out from the former countries, since less respondents d (33 compared to, for example, 49 in Luxembourg and Demark) and more respondents had no opinion or did not answer the question (17 compared to, for example, 5 in Spain). Many people in [OUR COUNTY] will not be able to afford the medical treatment they need Agree Dis DK/NA EL PT DE CY BE SI FR LV IE PL EU27 UK RO AT LT IT BG CZ FI HU EE SE SK NL ES MT LU DK Q2. Thinking about [OUR COUNTRY] in, let s say, 20 years time, do you strongly,, or strongly with the following statements? In 20 years time,... Base: all respondents by country page 15

16 Flash EB N o 227 Future Social Reality Analytical report 2.10 Affordable housing When EU citizens were asked about their long-term expectations in terms of availability of affordable housing, a majority in all Member States expected a worsening of the situation. In Cyprus (87), Belgium (85), the UK and Luxembourg (both 82), Sweden and Slovenia (both 81), more than eight out of 10 respondents d with this statement. Although Cypriot respondents were the most likely to express their ment with this statement, the proportion of respondents who strongly d was lower than the EU27 average (27 vs. 32). Respondents in the UK (55), Italy (50) and Belgium (48) were the most likely to strongly that finding affordable housing would be more difficult in 20 years time. The Member States with the most optimistic expectations in terms of affordable housing i.e. respondents in these countries were the least likely to with the statement were Germany (53), Estonia (58), Lithuania (59) and Denmark (60). Although respondents in these four countries were also among the least likely to strongly that it would be more difficult to find affordable housing (10 in Denmark, 12 in Estonia, 16 in Lithuania and 17 in Estonia), the Dutch respondents were the least likely to strongly (9). It will be more difficult to find affordable housing 100 Agree Dis DK/NA CY BE UK LU SE SI MT EL AT PT FI IT BG CZ HU FR RO IE NL EU27 PL SK ES LV DK LT EE DE Q2. Thinking about [OUR COUNTRY] in, let s say, 20 years time, do you strongly,, or strongly with the following statements? In 20 years time,... Base: all respondents by country 2.11 Equal sharing of daily household tasks In almost all EU15 Member States, the proportion of respondents who expected that men would take on a more equal share of the daily household tasks was higher than the EU27 average (i.e. 70). In Portugal (86), France (84) and Spain (82) more than eight out of 10 respondents d with the statement. The exceptions were Germany (67), the UK and Austria (both 66), where slightly less than seven out of 10 respondents expressed their ment with the statement. Italy stood out from the pack with 38 of respondents who strongly d that men would take on a more equal share of the daily household tasks. In all other Member States, less than one in three respondents strongly d; the proportion ranged from only 3 in the Netherlands to 32 in France. The majority of NMS were found at the lower end of the distribution where citizens were the most likely to that in 20 years time men would take on a more equal share of the daily household tasks. In Hungary (52), Latvia (49), the Czech Republic (47), Lithuania and Slovakia (both 44), Bulgaria and Romania (both 41) more than four out of 10 respondents did not expect that men would help more with the daily tasks at home in 20 years time. page 16

17 Analytical report Flash EB N o 227 Future Social Reality Men will take a more equal share of the daily tasks at home Agree Dis DK/NA PT FR ES SE IT DK FI IE LU MT EL CY BE EU27 DE UK AT SI EE NL PL RO BG SK LT LV CZ HU Q2. Thinking about [OUR COUNTRY] in, let s say, 20 years time, do you strongly,, or strongly with the following statements? In 20 years time,... Base: all respondents by country 2.12 Family ties Respondents in Cyprus (83), Greece (78), Malta (73) and Portugal (71) were the most likely to that family ties would be weaker in 20 years time. Italian, Greek and French respondents were the most likely to strongly (33, 32 and 31, respectively) with the statement. Latvia (47), Estonia, Lithuania (both 48) and Denmark (49) were found at the lower end of the scale with less than half of respondents who d that family ties would be weaker in 20 years time. Furthermore, 47 of Latvian and Danish respondents d with this statement, followed by 45 of Estonian and Dutch respondents. The latter were not only the least likely to strongly (only 3), they were also among the most likely to with the statement that family ties would be weaker in 20 years time. Family ties will be weaker 100 Agree Dis DK/NA CY EL MT PT LU SI FR FI AT BG HU UK ES IT IE EU27 BE CZ PL DE SK RO SE NL DK LT EE LV Q2. Thinking about [OUR COUNTRY] in, let s say, 20 years time, do you strongly,, or strongly with the following statements? In 20 years time,... Base: all respondents by country page 17

18 Flash EB N o 227 Future Social Reality Analytical report 2.13 Quality of life and technological progress Respondents in Lithuania expected the most gain from advances in technology: three out of four Lithuanians d that such advances would lead to a better quality of life and more time for themselves, their family and friends in 20 years time. Estonian and Bulgarian respondents shared this optimism, with seven out of 10 respondents ing with this statement (70 and 69, respectively). Slovene, Greek and Austrian respondents, on the other hand, did not share the Lithuanians optimism. The proportion of respondents who d with this statement was only 31 in Slovenia, 35 in Greece and 37 in Austria and the proportions who d were, respectively, 66, 63 and 59. In most other Member States, however, opinions about a better quality of life thanks to further technological progress were divided; two (often equally) large groups of respondents d or, alternatively, d with the statement. For example, 48 of the Portuguese respondents d with this statement and a similar proportion of 47 d. Thanks to technological progress, people will have a better quality of life and more time for themselves, their family and friends Agree Dis DK/NA LT EE BG ES RO LV SK IT PL IE MT DK CZ EU27 HU PT FR BE LU CY UK FI NL SE DE AT EL SI Q2. Thinking about [OUR COUNTRY] in, let s say, 20 years time, do you strongly,, or strongly with the following statements? In 20 years time,... Base: all respondents by country 2.14 Relations between people from different backgrounds The Member States with the highest expectations in terms of more harmonious relations in 20 years time between their citizens and those from different cultural or religious backgrounds and nationalities were Ireland (77 d with the statement), Cyprus (69) and Luxembourg (67). The Member States with the lowest expectations were the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia: only 40 of Czechs, 43 of Hungarians and 45 of Slovakian respondents expected that there would be more harmonious relations. Furthermore, in the UK, Slovenia, Austria and Germany, we also observed that less than half of the respondents d with this statement (45, 46 and 47, respectively). In all Member States, not more than one in four respondents strongly d with this statement; the proportion ranged from just 3 in the Netherlands to 25 in Italy. The same observation could be made when looking at the proportions of respondents who strongly d less than one in four respondents in all Member States strongly d with this statement and the proportion ranged from 2 in Cyprus and Lithuania to 23 in the UK. page 18

19 Analytical report Flash EB N o 227 Future Social Reality There will be more harmonious relations in [OUR COUNTRY] between people from different cultural or religious backgrounds and nationalities Agree Dis DK/NA IE CY LU PL IT FI EL ES EE MT RO BG LT LV NL PT EU27 DK SE FR BE DE AT SI UK SK HU CZ Q2. Thinking about [OUR COUNTRY] in, let s say, 20 years time, do you strongly,, or strongly with the following statements? In 20 years time,... Base: all respondents by country 2.15 Time contribution to social causes In a majority of Member States, and in comparison with the other statements, the results for the statement about people giving more time to others and to social causes in 20 years time showed a lower level of ment. The proportion of respondents who d with this statement ranged from 30 in Hungary and Germany to 57 in Lithuania. Furthermore, in comparison with other statements, slightly more respondents in some Member States did not have an opinion on this topic or did not know what to answer. In only three Member States, more than half of the respondents d that in 20 years time, people would give more time to others and to social causes; 57 of the Lithuanians, 55 of the Estonians and 53 of the Danes d with the statement. In Bulgaria, half of the respondents d with this statement. The Bulgarian respondents (12), together with the Italian (15) and Belgian (13) respondents, were also the most likely to strongly. Poland (32), the Netherlands and Slovakia (33) joined Hungary and Germany (both 30) at the lower end of the distribution with no more than one in three respondents who d that people would give more time to others and to social causes. People will give more time to others and to social causes Agree Dis DK/NA LT EE DK BG LV MT RO IE IT CY SE FI ES SI BE LU PT EL EU27 CZ UK FR AT SK NL PL DE HU Q2. Thinking about [OUR COUNTRY] in, let s say, 20 years time, do you strongly,, or strongly with the following statements? In 20 years time,... Base: all respondents by country page 19

20 Flash EB N o 227 Future Social Reality Analytical report 2.16 Innovative ways of political decision-making participation Agreement with the statement that there would be new ways of allowing people to be more involved in political decision-making ranged from 35 in Germany to 67 in Finland and Malta; ment with the statement ranged from 17 in Malta to 61 in Germany. In comparison with the other statements, slightly more respondents did not have an opinion on this topic or did not know how to answer this question. For example, in Romania and Bulgaria one in five respondents did not say if they d or d with this statement. Respondents in Finland and Malta (both 67), Estonia and Ireland (both 62) were the most likely to expect that there would be new ways to participate in political decision-making in 20 years time. In Germany, on the other hand, a similar proportion of 61 did not expect this to occur (they d or strongly d). Other countries where more than half of the respondents d with the statement were Austria (53) and Greece (52). Focusing on the likelihood of choosing one of the more extreme answer categories (i.e. strongly or strongly ), it was noted that less than one in five respondents in almost all Member States strongly d and, similarly, less than one in five strongly d (the exception was France with 22 who strongly d with this statement). There will be new ways to participate in political decision making which will allow people to be more involved Agree Dis DK/NA FI MT EE IE PT DK LV NL LT LU CY PL SE SI BG UK ES SK RO EU27 IT CZ EL BE FR HU AT DE Q2. Thinking about [OUR COUNTRY] in, let s say, 20 years time, do you strongly,, or strongly with the following statements? In 20 years time,... Base: all respondents by country 2.17 Socio-demographic analysis of citizens long-term expectations about social conditions The following analysis describes the variation in EU citizens expectations regarding their country s social situation in 20 years time, broken down by socio-demographic variables. Tables 2b through 17b in the Annex show the detailed differences. Gender Men were more likely than women to consider it unlikely that in 20 years time less people would be able to afford any necessary medical care (30 of men d with this statement compared to 23 of women), but also that people would have lower earnings because of the competition from rising economies (39 of men compared to 33 of women). page 20

21 Analytical report Flash EB N o 227 Future Social Reality For four of the positively-formulated statements, however, men were more likely to think that these correctly described the social conditions in their country in 20 years time: Age while 77 of men d that opportunities at work would be more equal for men and women in 20 years time, only 68 of women did so, men more often d that they would take up a more equal share of the daily household tasks (75 compared to 64 of the women), a majority of male respondents (55) thought that working conditions would be better in the future compared to less than half of female respondents (47), similarly, slightly more than half of men (52) thought that people would have a better quality of life thanks to technological progress compared to slightly less than half of women (47). The differences by age group in expectations regarding social conditions in 20 years time showed that the youngest age group (15-24 year-olds) distinguished themselves from the older age groups. Overall, the year-olds had a more optimistic view about the long-term future of society. For the following positively-formulated statements, the youngest respondents more often d that these did describe the outlook in the future: opportunities at work will be more equal for women and men, working conditions will be better, technological progress will lead to a better quality of life, greater harmony between people from different cultural or religious backgrounds and nationalities will exist, new methods will exist to allow people to be more involved in political decision-making. For example, six out of 10 respondents between 15 and 24 years of age d that there will be more harmonious relationships in their country between people from different cultural or religious backgrounds and nationalities compared to only slightly more than half of the respondents older than 24 (54 of the year-olds; 55 of the year-olds and 53 of the respondents aged 55 and over). The youngest age group was also more likely to that people would give more time to others and to social causes in 20 years time (39). However, for this statement, their optimism was shared by the age group of 55 and over (39 of them d), while those respondents between 25 and 54 were again less likely to with the statement (33 of the year-olds and 36 of the year-olds). For the following negatively-formulated statements, the youngest respondents more often d that this was the outlook for the future: people will extend their working lives, the gap between the rich and the poor will be wider, many people will not be able to afford necessary medical treatment. For example, we found that 37 of the year-olds d that in 20 years time many people would not be able to afford the required medical treatment, while only slightly more than one in four respondents in the other age groups d on this point (28 of the year-olds; 23 of the year-olds and 24 of the respondents aged 55 and over). page 21