European & UK Hotel Performance

Transcription

1 European & UK Hotel Performance Trend Analysis by STR Global Naureen Ahmed Manager, Marketing & Analysis RMAPI Conference, London 7 th November 2013

2 Agenda Global Snapshot Europe Overview UK Focus Outlook

3 Our participants As of September ,000 hotels +6.4m rooms +30,000 hotels +3.9 m rooms +8,000 hotels +1,1 m rooms +400 hotels +120,000 rooms +800 hotels +160,000 rooms +600 hotels +100,000 rooms +5,000 hotels +1 m rooms

4 Global performance RevPAR % Chg YTD September 2013 (USD) + 0.6% + 5.4% - 4.1% +5.1%

5 RevPAR % Chg YE % Europe +4.4% YE 12 YTD %

6 Europe Room Supply & Demand %Chg 12 months moving average YE 2005 to September % Nov % 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Jun % Sep % -4% -6% Jul % -8% Supply % Chg Demand % Chg

7 Europe Occupancy & ADR %Chg 12 month moving average YE 2005 to September % 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Occ % Chg Jan % ADR % Chg May % -10% Jul 09-12% Nov % -11.5% -14% Sep % Sep %

8 Europe actual performance 12 month moving average YE 2005 to September ,800,000,000 1,600,000, ,400,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,000,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, Supply Demand RevPAR 0

9 Europe P&L 2012 Annual % Change 15 TOTAL REVENUE DEPT. EXPENSES UNDIST. EXPENSES GOP NET INCOME TOTAL PAYROLL

10 Europe Classes Occ and ADR % Chg YTD Sep 2012 & 2013 Euros 85% % % % % 50 60% Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale/Economy 0 Occ 12 Occ 13 ADR 12 ADR 13

11 European Regions Occ,ADR & RevPAR YTD Sep 2012 & 2013 in YTD 2013 Occ % ADR RevPAR Total 68.2 (+2.2%) (-1.5%) (+0.6%) Eastern 61.9 (+3.2%) (-3.7%) (-0.7%) Northern 73.3 (+3.3%) (-4.8%) (-1.7%) Southern 64.3 (+1.6%) (+2.7%) (+4.3%) Western 67.3 (+0.9%) (-0.3%) (+0.6%)

12 Eurozone vs Non-Eurozone Demand % Chg 12 months moving average YE 2005 to September % 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Nov % Sep % Sep % -8% Jul 09-10% -8.1% Eurozone Non-Eurozone

13 Key Cities Europe Occ & ADR % Chg YTD September 2013 (local currency) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Occupancy ADR

14 Key European Cities Occ & ADR YTD September 2013 in Euros 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% Occupancy ADR

15 RevPAR % Chg YE % United Kingdom +1.5% YE 12 YTD %

16 5.4% 1.4% -1.7% 4.4% 5.0% -1.3% 6.6% 5.4% 5.6% 6.8% 0.9% 9.6% RevPAR % Chg YTD Sep in GBP Scotland NE England N Ireland NW England Yorkshire Wales W Midlands E Midlands E England London SW England SE England

17 Key Cities UK Occ & ADR % Chg YTD September 2013 in GBP 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Occ ADR

18 Key Cities UK Occ & ADR YTD September 2013 in GBP Occ ADR

19 RevPAR % Chg YE % Regional UK -0.6% YE 12 YTD %

20 Regional UK Market Scales and Classes Existing room supply Chain Scales Classes 1% 40% 7% 11% 32% 2% 12% 19% 21% 6% 14% 14% 21% Luxury Upper Upscale Luxury Class Upper Upscale Class Upscale Midscale Independent Upper Midscale Economy Upscale Class Midscale Class Upper Midscale Class Economy Class

21 Regional UK Classes Supply and Demand % Chg YTD September % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale/Economy Supply Demand

22 Regional UK Classes YTD September 2012 & 2013 Occ and ADR in GBP 85% % 75% 70% 65% % Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale/Economy 0.0 Occ 12 Occ 13 ADR 12 ADR 13

23 RevPAR % Chg YE % London +2.2% YE 12 YTD %

24 London Occ & ADR Monthly performance 100% % % % % 90 50% 70 40% Jan 12 Feb Mar Apr 12 May Jun Jul 12 AugSep Oct NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr 13 May Jun Jul 13 AugSep Occupancy ADR

25 London Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR YTD Sep 2011 vs YTD Sep % YTD 100 Supply 50growth % % ADR RevPAR Occ ADR RevPAR Occ

26 Greater London Market Scales and Classes Existing room supply Chain Scales Classes 13% 5% 37% 9% 7% 17% 12% 9% 11% 23% 10% 29% 18% Luxury Upscale Midscale Independent Upper Upscale Upper Midscale Economy Luxury Class Upscale Class Midscale Class Upper Upscale Class Upper Midscale Class Economy Class

27 London Classes Supply & Demand % Chg YTD September % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale/Economy Supply Demand

28 London Classes Occ & ADR YTD Sep 2012 & 2013 in GBP 85% % 75% 70% 65% % Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale/Economy 0 Occ 12 Occ 13 ADR 12 ADR 13

29 Pipeline & Forecast

30 Pipeline Europe As of September 2013 Supply Active Pipeline 32, ,006 21% 6% 15% 11% 6% 23% 18% 4,335,277 Existing Recently Opened Pipeline Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated

31 Pipeline - Europe Rooms, September 2013 Ukraine Poland Italy France Netherlands Spain Turkey Germany Russia United Kingdom 0 100, , , , , ,000 Existing Pipeline

32 Eurozone Demand & GDP % Chg Quarterly F (GDP Source: Oxford Economics) f 2015f Demand GDP

33 Forecast 2014 Occupancy and ADR % Chg

34 Contacts Naureen Ahmed STR Global +44 (0) You can follow us on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied.