29 th European Hotel Investment Conference Heading into thin air? Roger Bootle Wednesday 8 November
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1 29 th European Hotel Investment Conference Heading into thin air? Roger Bootle Wednesday 8 November
2 1. Agenda The global recovery and future risks. The US and Trump. Economic recovery and political risk in the eurozone. The UK and Brexit. The outlook for interest rates. 2
3 2. World economy recovering China has stabilised for now. The US and UK remain robust. Hard-hit Russia and Brazil have stabilised. Many emerging markets recovering. The euro-zone to show decent growth this year. 3
4 3. Why has the global economy recovered? The benefits of lower oil prices coming through. Gradual recovery from the financial crisis. Fiscal austerity coming to an end. 4
5 4. Emerging and Developed Economies GDP (2008=100) ( ) 160 Emerging economies Developed economies
6 5. Risks to the global recovery China. Renewed crisis in Europe. The banking system. Inflation and monetary tightening. 6
7 6. US Unemployment Rate, Jan 60-Sep
8 7. Trump Agenda Tax reform will be modest and delayed until next year. Congress needs to deal with 2018 budget by early Dec. White House progress hampered by scandal & incompetence. Protectionist threats have come to nothing for now. 8
9 8. GDP in the Euro-zone and UK ( ) (1999 = 100) (Latest = Q2 2017) Germa ny Fra nce Spain Portugal Italy UK
10 9. French Government Debt (% of GDP), Forecast
11 10. Macron Net Favourability Rating since 7th May election (Latest = Oct. 17) Net approval Net disapproval No Bar equals 0% -40 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
12 11. Italian Government Debt (% GDP), Forecasts
13 12. Polling for the Next Italian General Election (% support) (Latest = Oct. 17) Black bars show anti-euro parties Demo. Party 5 Star Move't North'n League Forza Italia Bro. of Italy Popular Area Italian Left 0 13
14 13. German Government Debt (% GDP), Forecasts
15 14. Selected Eurozone Current Account Balances, (% of GDP) 2017 Forecasts Surplus Deficit -2-4 Net Ger Ire EZ avg. Ita Spa Aus Por Fin Bel Fra Gre -4 15
16 15. Germany After the Election Mrs Merkel is greatly weakened. The scope to press forward to further European integration reduced. Radical reform of German policy unlikely. Not much help for Macron. 16
17 16. UK GDP (%q/q) (Q Q2 2017) HMT shock sce nario HMT severe shock scenario Out-turn Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q
18 17. Average Earnings & CPI Inflation ( , latest = Aug./Sep.) 7 Average Earnings (Exc. Bonuses, 3m. Av. of % y/y) CPI Inflation (3m. Av. of % y/y) Real Wages Falling Forecasts
19 18. Breakdown of Consumer Confidence ( , latest = Oct 2017) Confidence in Own Finances Confidence in Economic Outlook
20 19. A No Deal Scenario Perfectly Okay Most trade with the EU would continue. Exports to the EU account for 12% of UK GDP. No deal advantages: - No budget contributions. - We can rescind EU regulations. - Negotiate FTAs immediately with other countries. 20
21 20. The Economic Impact of Brexit Exaggerated The political class exaggerates the importance of political factors. Brexit is an opportunity and a challenge not a magic wand. The importance of deregulation and lower taxes. The Singapore example. The prospect of a Labour Government. 21
22 21. Key Policy Rates (%) ( , latest = Nov 2017) 3.0 US Forecasts UK Euro-zone Japan
23 22. Conclusions The US looks reasonably robust. The euro-zone is doing well for now. The squeeze on UK consumers is about to end. The UK should soon experience strong growth of net exports. It will weather Brexit well - if it happens. But the EU faces existential challenges. Stand by for the move towards higher interest rates. 23
24 This publication has been written in general terms and we recommend that you obtain professional advice before acting or refraining from action on any of the contents of this publication. Deloitte LLP accepts no liability for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any material in this publication. Deloitte LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC and its registered office at 2 New Street Square, London, EC4A 3BZ, United Kingdom. Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom affiliate of Deloitte NWE LLP, a member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee ( DTTL ). DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL and Deloitte NWE LLP do not provide services to clients. Please see to learn more about our global network of member firms Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved.
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