The Global Economy. RISI Asian Forest Products Summit 22 June, David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics
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1 The Global Economy Heightened drisks RISI Asian Forest Products Summit 22 June, 2016 David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics
2 Agenda 1. Global Snapshot A Two-Track World 2. China Slowing, Not Crashing 3. USA Steady Growth 4. Europe Growing Slowly 2
3 Global Economy Growing Moderately, with Heightened Risks Annual Real GDP Growth Euro Area USA 09% 0.9% 15% 1.5% 16% 1.6% 14% 1.4% 2.4% 2.4% 1.9% 2.4% China 7.3% 6.9% 6.4% 6.1% Latin America % 1.3% 0.2% % 0.6% 17% 1.7% Source: IMF, RISI 3
4 Developed Economies Leading Global Growth Global Real GDP* Growth *Measured at purchasing power parity exchange rates Source: IMF, RISI Advanced Emerging World 4
5 While Emerging Markets Have Slowed Annual Real GDP Growth 20% 15% Brazil Russia India China South Africa 10% 5% % -5% -10% Source: IMF, RISI 5
6 Oil Prices Staying Low on Oversupply West Texas Intermediate, Brent North Sea Crude Oil, Price per Barrel WTI Brent Copyright 2014 RISI, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Energy Information Administration, RISI 6
7 China in Transition Economy undergoing major restructuring Investment led growth to consumer based growth Days of 9 10% growth in the past Some financial liberalization Fiscal and monetary stimulus being implemented Increase in infrastructure spending New mechanisms for financing But how effective will it be? Debt has become a serious issue, and it is still rising Bank non performing loans near 20% Increased volatility for renminbi, but no major devaluation 7
8 Debt Continues to Increase Debt, Percentage of GDP, Second Quarter Government Corporate 64 Household 36 Financial Sector Source: McKinsey Global Institute 8 8
9 But a Debt Crisis Is Unlikely Foreign Reserves, Million US Dollars; Foreign Debt Ratio, Percent of GDP 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Foreign Reserves Foreign Debt Ratio Source: CEIC 9 9
10 Industrial Side of Economy Slowing Fixed Asset Investment, Year over Year Percent Change; Industrial Production, Year over Year Percent Change 50% Industrial Production Growth Y/Y 40% Fixed-Asset Investment t Growth Y/Y 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Source: PBC, CEIC 10
11 But Services Side of Economy Performing Better Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing, Services 65 PMI Manufacturing 60 PMI Services Source: PBC, CEIC 11
12 Real Estate Makes a Comeback Real Estate Climate Index, 2000=100; Floor Space Under Construction, Buildings Sold, Year over Year Percentage Change RECI (L) Floor Space Under Construction (R) Buildings Sold (R) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% Source: CEIC 12
13 Lending Growing Very Strongly New Bank Loans, Aggregate Financing, Billion Renminbi; Money Supply, Year over Year Percent Change 4,500 4,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 Bank Loans Aggregate Financing 3,500 Money Supply (R) 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 1,500 1, % 10% 5% 0% Source: NBS, Dragonomics 13
14 Trade Remains Weak Exports and Imports, Year over Year Percent Change 100% 80% Exports Imports 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% % -60% Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, CEIC 14
15 Industrial Imports Near All Time Highs Three Month Average of Imports by Quantity, Index 2005 = Iron Ore Copper Crude Oil Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan Source: CEIC
16 China s Economy Continues to Slow Real GDP Growth, Annual Percent Change 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: NBS, RISI 16
17 Increasing Volatility for the Renminbi RMB/USD Source: Fed, RISI 17
18 Asia Developed Annual Real GDP Growth Japan South Korea Taiwan Hong Kong Singapore
19 Asia Developing Annual Real GDP Growth Indonesia Phillipines India Thailand Malaysia
20 The US Economy USA Oasisof Prosperity? Partially decoupling from the rest of the world Domestic based growth is healthy Employment and wage growth Cheap energy Housing Non domestic side of economy struggling Manufacturing Exports 20
21 2015 Was Another Year of Healthy Job Growth Change in US Total Payroll Employment, Millions Annualized Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 21
22 Consumption Growth Driving US Economy Real Consumption Expenditure, Annualized Percentage Change; Unemployment Rate 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 1% 0% 1% 2% 2% 3%% 4% 5% 6% Consumption Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, RISI 22
23 Strong Dollar, Weak External Environment, Oil Pressuring Manufacturing Index of Industrial Production, January 2000 = 1.00; PMI Industrial Production PMI Source: Federal Reserve, Institute for Supply Management 23
24 Dollar Strong on Decent Growth and Tighter Monetary Policy Trade Weighted US Dollar Index: Broad, March 1973 = Source: Federal Reserve 24
25 Low Natural Gas Prices Helping US Manufacturers Landed Prices of LNG February 2016, Dollars per MMBtu $5 $5 $ $4 $3 $3 $2 $ $1 $1 $0 Source: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission 25
26 US Economy Growing, But Growth is Unimpressive Real GDP Growth, Annualized Percent Change 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 0% 1% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% -9% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, RISI 26
27 Europe Slow and Steady The Positives Growth positive and steady Oil prices and the euro Bank lending improving The Negatives Risk of deflation Unemployment remains high Reforms have stalled The Risks Russia Quantitative Easing Migration crisis 27
28 Eurozone Economy Growing, But Weakly Annual Real GDP Growth Germany France Italy UK Eurozone Source: IMF, RISI 28
29 Consumer Leading the Recovery Real Consumption Expenditures, Year over Year Percent Change 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Germany UK France Italy Spain Source: Eurostat 29
30 Unemployment Improving, But Still High Outside of Germany Harmonized Unemployment Rate 28% 26% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Eurozone Germany Greece Spain France Italy Portugal Source: Eurostat 30
31 Bank Lending Supporting Growth Bank Loans to Households and Non Financial Corporations, M3, Year over Year Percent Change 20% 15% Non-Financial Corporations Households Money Supply 10% 5% 0% -5% Source: ECB 31
32 Industrial Production Growth Tepid Industrial Production Indices, January 2010= Euro Area Germany France Italy Source: Eurostat 32
33 Deflation Still a Risk CPI, Core CPI; Year over Year Percent Change 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% CPI Core CPI ECB Target 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% % 10% Source: Eurostat 33
34 Euro Will Weaken Versus Dollar on Continuing Central Banks Actions USD/EUR $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $ $1.00 $0.90 $ Source: Fed, RISI 34
35 Conclusions Slower growth for emerging g markets, with the exception of India China s growth will be an important driver for other emerging economies Slowdown will continue, but no hard landing Increasing risks for emerging markets from the strong US dollar Revaluation of currencies 35
36 Conclusions US economy growing moderately Improving employment should support increased spending Housing market still presents upside risk Manufacturing side of the economy struggling Europe growing, but slowly Potential growth rate is lower QE helping somewhat Threat of deflation present, but low Risks around the world have increased 36
37 Thank you for your attention! For more information: Monthly Economic Commentary 37
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