29 th European Hotel Investment Conference Heading into thin air? Andreas Scriven Wednesday 8 November
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1 29 th European Hotel Investment Conference Heading into thin air? Andreas Scriven Wednesday 8 November
2 Chairman s welcome Andreas Scriven Partner - Head of Hospitality & Leisure Deloitte #DeloitteEHIC 2
3 Today s agenda 09:00 09:10 Chairman s welcome 09:10 09:35 The economic outlook 09:35 09:50 Performance review 09:50 10:30 View from the top 10:30 11:15 Coffee break and networking 11:15 11:55 State of the industry 11:55 12:35 Revolutionising hospitality 12:35 13:15 Outlook for investment 13:15 14:30 Lunch and networking 14:30 14:50 Digital trends of tomorrow 14:50 15:25 Opportunities through technology 15:25 16:00 Owning the customer 16:00 16:30 Close and afternoon tea
4 What you think is going to happen next Over half say the UK is at its peak in the investment cycle with Spain, Ireland and Germany in the upturn Traditional bank debt is expected to be the most common source of financing in the market (60%), followed by private equity (45%) and alternative lenders (41%) Despite Chinese capital controls on overseas investment, respondents view Chinese, along with North American and European investors, as the dominant investors in 2018 Brexit concerns are low on the agenda for the industry in Europe ranking #7 out of 13 with terrorism (#1) and a lack of economic growth (#2) considered to be the biggest sources of risk Source: 2017 Deloitte European Hotel Investment Survey
5 bn European hotel transaction volumes have increased by c.6% in H on the same period last year European hotel investment volume ( H1 2017) H Portfolio Single Asset UK Source: Deloitte research, CBRE, Savills
6 Germany was the most popular market amongst investors last year, followed by the UK and Spain Regional share of transaction volume (2016) 6% 4% 4%3% 3% 5% 25% Germany UK Spain France 7% Western Europe 11% 12% 20% Italy CEE & Balkans Nordic & Baltic Southern Europe Ireland Netherlands Source: Deloitte research, CBRE, Savills
7 Significant consolidation opportunities remain for hotel chains Industry consolidation life cycle Industry concentration 100% Stage 1 Opening Stage 2 Scale Stage 3 Focus Stage 4 Balance & alliance Rooms Share 1,190, % 90% 80% 738, % 70% 60% 583, % 50% 40% 16,600,00 100% 30% 20% 15% Note: Data as of H % 0% Time Source: Deloitte research, Harvard Business Review, STR, Hotel companies annual reports
8 Even a minor shift in consolidation would require a mega merger Industry consolidation life cycle Industry concentration 100% Stage 1 Opening Stage 2 Scale Stage 3 Focus Stage 4 Balance & alliance Rooms Share 1,190, % 90% 80% 738, % 70% 60% 583, % 50% 40% 16,600,00 100% 30% 20% 20% Note: Data as of H % 0% Time Source: Deloitte research, Harvard Business Review, STR, Hotel companies annual reports
9 The outlook remains positive 1.5bn passengers in 2035 (CAGR 2.5%) 7.2bn passengers in 2035 (CAGR 3.7%) Tourism expenditure to reach US$1,986bn in 2021 Tourism expenditure to reach US$7,647bn in 2021 Europe accounts for c. 34% of global industry value Hotel industry value to increase by 12% to *US$554bn in 2018 Europe forecast to be the leading region for vacation rentals, generating the highest revenue and maximum incremental growth between 2017 and 2021 Vacation rental industry is expected to be valued at US$194bn in 2021 (41% increase from 2016 mainly driven by Europe) Note: *the value only includes hotel establishments Source: Deloitte research, IATA, Skift, UNWTO
10 This publication has been written in general terms and we recommend that you obtain professional advice before acting or refraining from action on any of the contents of this publication. Deloitte LLP accepts no liability for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any material in this publication. Deloitte LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC and its registered office at 2 New Street Square, London, EC4A 3BZ, United Kingdom. Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom affiliate of Deloitte NWE LLP, a member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee ( DTTL ). DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL and Deloitte NWE LLP do not provide services to clients. Please see to learn more about our global network of member firms Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved.
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