Industrial orders, Nov'18, y/y (WDA) -2.7% Industrial production, Nov'18, y/y (WDA) -0.8% Industrial production, Nov'18, y/y 5.0%

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1 Weekly 2018 Week 01 MARTIN LOBOTKA, (+420) , CALENDAR DAY DATE TIME (CET)* MARKET RELEASE CONSENSUS** Monday 7-Jan-19 8:00 GER Retail sales, Nov'18, y/y -0.4% 7-Jan-19 8:00 GER Industrial orders, Nov'18, y/y (WDA) -2.7% 7-Jan-19 11:00 EMU Retail sales, Nov'18, y/y 0.4% Tuesday 8-Jan-19 8:45 GER 8-Jan-19 9:00 CZ Industrial production, Nov'18, y/y (WDA) Industrial production, Nov'18, y/y -0.8% 5.0% 8-Jan-19 11:00 EMU Economic Confidence, Dec' Wednesday 9-Jan-19 9:00 CZ Trade balance, Nov'18, CZK bn. 5.7 Thursday 10-Jan-19 9:00 CZ CPI, Dec'18, y/y 2.1% Friday 11-Jan-19 9:00 CZ Retail sales, Nov'18, y/y 1.8% 11-Jan-19 9:00 CZ (Final) 3Q18 GDP, q/q 0.6% 11-Jan-19 9:00 SPA 11-Jan-19 9:00 ITA * LOCAL TIME IS CET ** (REUTERS/ BLOOMBERG) POLL JANUARY 2019 AUCTIONS NAME DATE OF AUCTION DATE OF ISSUE Industrial production, Nov'18, y/y (SA) Industrial production, Nov'18, y/y (WDA) MATURES ON AMOUNT OFFERED* 0.3% 0.5% COUPON SPP 805* 3-Jan-19 4-Jan-19 4-Oct-19 CZK 5 bn. max N/A CZGB ** 9-Jan Jan Feb-27 CZK 5 bn. max 0.25% CZGB ** 9-Jan Jan-19 4-Dec-23 CZK 3 bn. max 4.20% SPP 806* 17-Jan Jan Jul-19 CZK 5 bn. max N/A CZGB ** 23-Jan Jan Feb-21 CZK 5 bn. max 0.75% CZGB ** 23-Jan Jan Jun-26 CZK 5 bn. max 2.40% SPP Jan-19 1-Feb-19 1-Nov-19 CZK 0-5 bn. N/A * FOR T-BILLS, THIS IS MAXIMUM AMOUNT PER PRIMARY DEALER. ** MINFIN CAN CHANGE THE ISSUE AT THE LATEST AT THE DAY OF THE AUCTION ANNOUNCEMENT FOR ONE WITH SIMILAR MATURITY. WEEK AHEAD Finally a week that is not (data-) weak. Key releases in the Eurozone are Nov 18 German industrial data (not much expected, especially from orders, as PMI showed) and Nov 18 Eurozone retail sales (also likely to be shown weak, but that will not be change against what we d seen throughout the previous months of last year). In the Czech Republic, final 3Q18 GDP won t bring any revision to 2 nd estimate of 0.6% q/q but there will be data on savings rate (probably up again) and profitability of NFCs (probably down again). Monthly data from November retail sales, industry - will then probably show that growth slackened mid-way through last quarter of Finally, December inflation is forecast at 2.1% but I d hazard a guess it ll be lower (CZK oil price of Brent fell 15% in December) and that most of the inflation will be shown to have been due to housing. All the CZ data should then show to the central bank that further tightening is nonsense. THOUGHT OF THE WEEK SO, PEOPLE FINALLY REALIZE YOU CAN T SELL SKODA OCTAVIA AT BMW 5 PRICE? 42 Financial Services Market Research Weekly 2019 Week 01 1

2 WEEK BEHIND CZ Industry about to contract, PMI says Government produced a cash deficit in great year that was 2018 Eurozone inflation down on energy prices Eurozone growth ground to almost a halt at the end of December, PMIs show FX EURCZK last week fell to lowest (25.55) since mid-september EURCZK FELL SHARPLY TO EURCZK This coincided with substantial decline in Czech government bond yields and was due to renewed interest of foreign buyers who were reported in the bond market last week. But why they came back into the market now while having stayed away before the year-end (when being invested in bonds would have provided shelter from Resolution fund effects) I do not know. Maybe they expect CNB to start cutting soon Dec 31-Dec 1-Jan 2-Jan 3-Jan 4-Jan FI CZECH YIELDS PLUMMET AS BUYERS JUMPED BACK INTO THIN-LIQUIDITY POST-CHRISTMAS MARKET Anyway, Czech government yields fell sharply last week, GERGB 10Y, % CZGB 10Y, % with 10Y down to 1.75%, lowest level since April This was due to renewed interest of both domestic and foreign buyers combined with low post-christmas liquidity, solid 2018 cash budget data (on the surface, at least), and declining German yields Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Financial Services Market Research Weekly 2019 Week 01 2

3 CZECH ECONOMY It ain t going well in industry. FIRST CONTRACTION IN PMI IN OVER 2 YEARS 12.5 Average Seasonallyadjusted 6 manufacturing in next 3 months from given month (% y/y) PMI Manufacturing, given month PMI in December fell below 50 for the first time since July 2016, signaling marginal deterioration of the overall conditions in the industry. It is not unique to Czech Republic, though in Poland, PMI also fell to 47.6, the lowest in 5 years. Czech slide was driven by two main factors: first, the decline, to lowest in 9 ½ years, of new export orders (which is, not surprisingly, attributed to trade war, though why now and not six months back remains unexplained) and, second, the decline, though to lesser extent, of domestic orders. Firms also remain fairly pessimistic regarding future: the sub-index of confidence was second-lowest in 6 years (and only higher than November 2018 low) Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov The takeaway is clear: industry is in for an outright contraction y/y pretty soon. The good times are over. And yet the government couldn t care less, bragging about great budgetary results of BUT GOVERNMENT LIVED 2018 LIKE GOOD TIMES ARE FOREVER. Change in selected expenditures categories (2018 vs. 2017, y/y %) Salaries Interest on debt Social spending (pensions etc.) 1.8 State Agricultural Fund The (cash) budget deficit (after adjusting for EU money on both sides of the budget) was CZK 2.2 bn. in 2018, about the same as in 2017 (CZK -1.3 bn.). That looks great on surface. The problem is that, in one of the best years since the crisis when tax revenues rose CZK 83.3 bn. y/y, the government couldn t produce a surplus. But then, how could it have? Current expenditures went up exactly the same CZK 83.3 bn. (what a coincidence, right?), with salaries up CZK 13 bn. (11%), social spending up CZK 26.6 bn. (5%), transfers to lower levels of administration (mostly to pay for higher wages of their employees like teachers) up CZK 19 bn. (13.6%). Really, the government has been living like there s no tomorrow and there s election tomorrow is shaping up to be a (so far not very loud) get-real call. 42 Financial Services Market Research Weekly 2019 Week 01 3

4 EUROZONE ECONOMY EUROZONE INFLATION FELL Eurozone inflation,% Eurozone inflation declined further in December 2018 due to the energy prices. This was to be expected: EUR oil price declined another 10% in December, extending the total decline from the peak in early October to a third month and bringing the cumulative decline over that period to almost 40%. Energy prices will thus soon turn to a negative contributor to inflation Headline HICP Core inflation 2012M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M06 AS ENERGY PRICES DECLINED. 2011M M M M M02 Eurozone energy inflation,% 2013M M M M06 ECONOMY CONTINUED TO DECELERATE AT THE END OF LAST YEAR May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 EMU PMI Industry May-14 Nov-14 May M M02 Nov M M10 May M M M M M06 EMU PMI Services Nov-16 May M10 Nov M M06 May M10 Nov-18 As regards core inflation, nothing changed: it remained at 1% just like in November, and thus hasn t been out of the % range since September Nothing that would justify the ECB s continuing inflationary optimism, if you ask me. And nothing that would increase the probability of 2019 hike of ECB. And there was nothing to increase that probability in final Dec 18 PMI data either. The manufacturing PMI declined further to lowest since February 2016 and service PMI saw a sharp drop to lowest since November While manufacturing PMI was the same as in preliminary report (51.4), service PMI was 0.2 pts. lower at Service index was dragged down by France, which saw a very sharp decline to a 34-month low of 49.7 pts. (vs in November), it being attributed to yellow vests protests that rocked France at the end of last year. But, it wasn t only France: Germany declined to 51.8, 27-month low, for example. Italy was moribund, as is usual, and the only big country where service sector (so far) seems to be doing well was Spain. Manufacturing was weak in all big economies: Spain (51.1, 28-month low), Germany (51.5, 33- month low), France ( month low), Italy (49.2 pts., small improvement on November but still in contraction). 42 Financial Services Market Research Weekly 2019 Week 01 4

5 Bottom line: economy is grinding to halt. At December PMIs, there will be no growth in 1Q Financial Services Market Research Weekly 2019 Week 01 5

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7 MARKETS MM / IRS % bps. % ASW spread* CZGB** 3M PRIBOR 6M PRIBOR 2Y 5Y 7Y 10Y Actual M M M Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 7Y 10Y Actual M M M Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 7Y 10Y Actual M M M 6M PRIBOR PRIBOR Act ual -3M -6M 2Y 5Y 7Y 10Y Act ual -3M -6M 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 7Y 10Y Act ual -3M -6M FX -6M EURCZK EURPLN EURHUF EURRON EURTRY EURUSD Actual M M M Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 7Y 10Y EURCZK As of Sunday night * Spreads to generic bonds ** Generic bond CONTACTS MARTIN LOBOTKA, ANALYST RESEARCH (+420) , MLobotka@42fs.com Research@42fs.com AVAILABLE AT THOMSON REUTERS EIKON MESSENGER PREVIOUS ISSUES OF WEEKLY AND OTHER REPORTS ARE AVAILABLE HERE 42 Financial Services Market Research Weekly 2019 Week 01 7

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