SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL GENERAL

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1 4 August ASEAN manufacturing PMI fell below 50 in July Drop in Asean s manufacturing PMI may be due to seasonal factors IHS Markit s ASEAN Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 49.3 in July (50 in June), falling below the 50 benchmark for the first time since December. We believe the drop in Asean s manufacturing PMI was partly attributed to seasonal factors, due to the Eid al-fitr festive season in Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia, as closures in some manufacturing plants for several days during the month, may have led to slowdown in output. Economic Update ASEAN Weekly Wrap Out of the seven countries in the region covered by IHS Markit, five of them experienced a deterioration in business conditions. In particular, Indonesia s manufacturing PMI fell further from 49.5 in June to a one-year low of 48.6 in July. Singapore also experienced a decline, where PMI fell from 50.3 in June to 47.9 in July, the lowest PMI level among all of ASEAN economies. Malaysia s PMI improved slightly to 48.3 in July from 46.9 in the previous month, but was still below the 50 mark. As the softening trend seen in Asean s manufacturing PMI was partly related to seasonal factors in July, we believe some recovery in the region PMI from August, reflecting healthy new orders and international trade, supported by steady global economic conditions in. Global manufacturing PMI rose from 52.6 in June to 52.7 in July. On the other hand, the seasonally adjusted Caixin China PMI also surged higher to 51.1 in July, against 50.4 in June. In Malaysia, both Business Confidence Index (BCI) and Consumer Sentiments Index (CSI) surveyed by the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) improved in 2Q17, reflecting favourable external environment. After hitting a low of 69.8 in 4Q16, the MIER s CSI improved further by 4.1 points to 80.7 in 2Q17, from 76.6 in 1Q17, the highest level since 4Q14. With robust external demand, the BCI index rose further to in 2Q17 (112.7 in 1Q17), at its highest level since 2Q13. Separately, Indonesia s inflation eased to 3.9% yoy in July (4.4% in June), due to improvement in food prices and lower costs of housing & utilities. Core inflation also remained stable at 3.5% in July, where in view of manageable food prices in the months ahead, we expect Bank Indonesia (BI) to leave its policy interest rate at 4.75% throughout. In addition, Thailand s headline inflation rose from flat growth in May and June to 0.2% yoy in July, but slightly lower than market expections of 0.3%. The increase in inflation was mainly due to the higher costs of transport and communication, which rose to 0.7% in July, but prices of food continued to decline by 0.5% in the same month. We also expect Bank of Thailand (BOT) to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.5% in the remaining months of. Economic Research (603) alan.tan@affinhwang.com izzuddin.yussof@affinhwang.com maisarah.razali@affinhwang.com Fig 1: ASEAN economic releases (28 July 3 Aug ) SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL GENERAL CONSENSUS CPI (%yoy) Indonesia Thailand PMI Manufacturing (Index) Malaysia Thailand Philippines Indonesia Singapore Source: All data from Bloomberg and CEIC, consensus from Bloomberg Page 1 of 6

2 4 August Appendix I: ASEAN economic charts (28 July 3 Aug ) Chart 1: Regional money supply Chart 2: Regional PMI Chart 3: Thailand s inflation Chart 4: Indonesia s inflation growth Chart 5: Thailand s CPI break down Chart 6: Indonesia s CPI break down Source: All data for charts sourced from CEIC and Bloomberg Page 2 of 6

3 4 August Appendix II: Upcoming ASEAN economic releases charts Chart 7: Malaysia s trade Chart 8: Indonesia s GDP Chart 9: Phillipines s CPI breakdown Chart 10: Phillipines s trade break down Chart 11: Phillipines s imports Chart 12: Malaysia s IPI Source: All data for charts sourced from CEIC and Bloomberg Page 3 of 6

4 4 August Appendix III: Monthly ASEAN economic data trend SEP OCT NOV DEC MALAYSIA CPI (%yoy) Core CPI (%yoy) IPI (%yoy) Exports (%yoy) Imports (%yoy) Trade balance (US$bn) Foreign reserves (US$bn) INDONESIA CPI (%yoy) Core CPI (%yoy) IPI (%yoy) Exports (%yoy) Imports (%yoy) Trade balance (US$bn) Foreign reserves (US$bn) PHILIPPINES CPI (%yoy) Core CPI (%yoy) IPI (%yoy) Exports (%yoy) Imports (%yoy) Trade balance (US$bn) Foreign reserves (US$bn) SINGAPORE CPI (%yoy) IPI (%yoy) Non-oil domestic exports (%yoy) Electronic exports Imports (%yoy) Trade balance (US$bn) Foreign reserves (US$bn) THAILAND CPI (%yoy) Core CPI (%yoy) IPI (%yoy) Exports (%yoy) Imports (%yoy) Trade balance (US$bn) Foreign reserves (US$bn) REAL GDP (%yoy) 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 MALAYSIA INDONESIA PHILIPPINES SINGAPORE THAILAND Source: Bloomberg, CEIC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL Page 4 of 6

5 4 August Appendix IV: ASEAN Economic Calendar for August August Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday MY Jul. Nikkei PMI SG Jul. Nikkei PMI MY June Trade TH Jul. CPI TH Jul. Consumer confidence GDP 2Q17 TH Jul. Nikkei PMI PH Jul. CPI PH Jul. PMI TH Jul. 28 Reserves Jul. Nikkei PMI Jul. CPI Jul. Consumer MY Jul. 31 Reserves MY June IPI SG June Retail Sales confidence PH Jul. Reserves PH June Trade TH Aug Reserves SG Jul. Reserves Jul. Reserves Jul. Trade PH GDP 2Q17 MY GDP 2Q17 SG Jul. NODX SG GDP 2Q17 TH Aug. 11 Reserves TH GDP 2Q17 MY Aug. 15 Reserves MY Jul. CPI SG Jul. IPI SG Jul. CPI TH Aug. 18 Reserves MY Jul. Money Supply PH Jul. Money Supply SG TH Jul. Money Supply Jul. Trade Jul. Money Supply =Indonesia, MY=Malaysia, PH=Philippines, SG=Singapore, TH=Thailand Dates for indicators are subject to change Source: Bloomberg Page 5 of 6

6 4 August Equity Rating Structure and Definitions BUY Total return is expected to exceed +10% over a 12-month period HOLD Total return is expected to be between -5% and +10% over a 12-month period SELL Total return is expected to be below -5% over a 12-month period NOT RATED Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad does not provide research coverage or rating for this company. Report is intended as information only and not as a recommendation The total expected return is defined as the percentage upside/downside to our target price plus the net dividend yield over the next 12 months. OVERWEIGHT Industry, as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to outperform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months NEUTRAL Industry, as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to perform inline with the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months UNDERWEIGHT Industry, as defined by the analyst s coverage universe is expected to under-perform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months This report is intended for information purposes only and has been prepared by Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad (14389-U) ( the Company ) based on sources believed to be reliable. However, such sources have not been independently verified by the Company, and as such the Company does not give any guarantee, representation or warranty (express or implied) as to the adequacy, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information and/or opinion provided or rendered in this report. Facts, information, views and/or opinion presented in this report have not been reviewed by, may not reflect information known to, and may present a differing view expressed by other business units within the Company, including investment banking personnel. Reports issued by the Company, are prepared in accordance with the Company s policies for managing conflicts of interest arising as a result of publication and distribution of investment research reports. Under no circumstances shall the Company, its associates and/or any person related to it be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but are not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profit and damages) arising from the use of or reliance on the information and/or opinion provided or rendered in this report. Any opinions or estimates in this report are that of the Company, as of this date and subject to change without prior notice. Under no circumstances shall this report be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. The Company and/or any of its directors and/or employees may have an interest in the securities mentioned therein. The Company may also make investment decisions or take proprietary positions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views in this report. Comments and recommendations stated here rely on the individual opinions of the ones providing these comments and recommendations. These opinions may not fit to your financial status, risk and return preferences and hence an independent evaluation is essential. Investors are advised to independently evaluate particular investments and strategies and to seek independent financial, legal and other advice on the information and/or opinion contained in this report before investing or participating in any of the securities or investment strategies or transactions discussed in this report. Third-party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data they provide and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to such data. The Company s research, or any portion thereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the consent of the Company. The Company, is a participant of the Capital Market Development Fund-Bursa Research Scheme, and will receive compensation for the participation. This report is printed and published by: Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad (14389-U) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad 22nd Floor, Menara Boustead, 69, Jalan Raja Chulan, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. T : F : research@affinhwang.com Page 6 of 6