PPI Inched Up 0.1% in Jun-18 Driven By Rising Commodity Price

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1 31 July 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW June 2018 Producer Price Index Inched Up 0.1% in Jun-18 Driven By Rising Commodity Price grew for the first time in Malaysia s producer prices increased by 0.1%yoy in Jun-18. Despite the tepid gain, it is still notable as the first growth for this year after falling for five consecutive months. However, on a monthly basis, contracted by 0.7% following two continuous months of increase. Optimistic outlook for industrial activities. Producer inflation of 0.1%yoy which remain low possibly will provide support to industrial and business activities in the upcoming months. Other factors such as tax holiday period and fuel subsidization could lessen input cost pressure and indirectly support industrial production. Producer price index is expected to expand by 3.2% in Amid higher base effects, we foresee input cost inflation to average at 3.2% this year. We anticipate inflationary pressure from fuel-related items to pick-up at steady speed, in tandem with steady gradual rise in global commodity prices. grew for the first time in Malaysia s producer prices increased by 0.1%yoy in Jun-18. Despite the tepid gain, it is still notable as the first growth for this year after falling for five consecutive months. However, on a monthly basis, contracted by 0.7% following two continuous months of increase. The gain was driven by mining and electricity & gas supply sectors which rose by 33.1%yoy and 1.3%yoy respectively. In contrast, input prices for agriculture, forestry & fishing, manufacturing and food product declined. Looking ahead, we foresee a slowdown in inflationary pressure amid tax-holiday period. On the other hand, rising global commodity prices on top of SST comeback in Sep-18 could induce inflationary pressure which eventually affects domestic inflation. Table 1: Producer Price Indices by Selected Sector MoM% YoY% Apr-18 Jun-18 Apr-18 Jun (0.7) (0.8) (0.4) 0.1 Agriculture, forestry & fishing (1.6) (0.6) (2.8) (6.8) (9.6) (10.1) Mining (2.8) Manufacturing (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (2.0) (2.5) (2.0) Electricity and gas (0.1) 0.3 (0.8) Food Product (0.8) (1.4) (0.7) (8.3) (9.0) (8.2) A conical consumer s inflation. Via pass-through effects mechanism, we opine Malaysia s headline inflation to taper down in Jul-18 as cost inflation merely grew by tepid pace of 0.1%yoy and in fact, contracted by 0.7% on monthly basis. In addition, cost of food products shrank by 8.2%yoy, in tandem with the price trend reflected in agriculture related sector. Furthermore, tax holiday period which lasts until the end of August could reduce prices of goods and services. Hence, it indirectly offers slight relief on cost of living especially for low income earners besides encouraging more domestic consumption. KINDLY REFER TO THE LAST PAGE OF THIS PUBLICATION FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

2 2 Optimistic outlook for industrial activities. Producer inflation of 0.1%yoy which remain low possibly will provide support to industrial and business activities in the upcoming months. Other factors such as tax holiday period and fuel subsidization could lessen input cost pressure and indirectly support industrial production. Malaysia s industrial production expanded by 3%yoy in and matched market expectations. Similarly, exports in the same month grew by 3.4%yoy. Looking at Malaysia s Nikkei Manufacturing PMI, it is averaged at 49.3 points in 1H18 as compared to 49 points in 1H17. Therefore, we foresee Malaysia s external trade performance as well as industrial productions will continue to expand on the back of low inflation. Eventually, it will translate into steady economy growth. Table 2: Producer Price Indices by Stage of Processing MoM% YoY% Apr-18 Jun-18 Apr-18 Jun (0.7) (0.8) (0.4) 0.1 Crude Materials for Further Processing (CM) (1.7) Intermediate Materials Supplies and Components (IM) 0.2 (0.7) (0.2) (1.6) (2.7) (2.5) Finished Goods (FG) (0.5) (0.1) (0.8) (2.6) (2.7) (3.4) Capital Equipment (CE) (0.8) 0.4 (1.3) (2.9) (2.7) (3.9) speeded for all major economies. In overall, producer inflation continued to accelerate in Jun-18 for all major economies. For instance, Thailand s producer inflation doubled to 1.8%yoy in Jun-18 following 0.7%yoy registered in the prior month. Similarly, Singapore s cost inflation surged to 11.6%yoy during the same month (: 8.6%yoy), the highest since mainly driven by oil prices. Meanwhile, China and the US also posted an increase in input prices in Jun-18 to 4.7%yoy and 3.4%yoy respectively. The upward trends in are observed to be broad-based, amid of gradual rise in commodity prices hence will provide supportive environment for businesses to expand steadily in Table 3: Global Producer Price Index (YoY%) Dec-18 Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Malaysia 0.3 (1.2) (3.4) (2.2) (0.8) (0.4) 0.1 Indonesia Thailand (0.6) (1.1) (1.9) (1.4) (0.8) Philippines (1.1) (1.3) (1.2) (0.7) 0.5 (1.8) Singapore 0.7 (0.2) (0.9) Japan China EU United States

3 3 Producer price index is expected to expand by 3.2% in Amid higher base effects, we foresee input cost inflation to average at 3.2% this year. We anticipate inflationary pressure from fuel-related items to pick-up at steady speed, in tandem with steady gradual rise in global commodity prices. However, we note that volatility in global commodity prices, market uncertainties due to escalating trade spat and geopolitical tensions on top of domestic political qualms are downside risks in placing inflationary pressure for businesses as well as consumers in Malaysia.

4 Chart 1: vs CPI (YoY%) Chart 2: vs IPI (YoY%) % CPI (RHS) IPI (RHS) Chart 3: Manufacturing: vs IPI (YoY%) Chart 4: (YoY%) vs Manufacturing PMI (Points) % 7.0% Feb-15 : Manufacturing IPI: Manufacturing (RHS) Msia Manufacturing PMI (RHS) Source: CEIC, BLOOMBERG, MIDFR Chart 5: vs Manufacturing Sales (YoY%) Chart 6: vs Imports (YoY%) Imports (RHS) Manufacturing Sales (RHS) Imports: Intermediate Goods (RHS) 4

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