OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG GENERAL
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- Sheila Cummings
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1 8 September ASEAN manufacturing PMI rose above 50 in August Indonesia inflation rate slowed slightly to 3.82% ASEAN purchasing managers index (PMI) rose above 50 level to 50.4 in August, after falling to 49.3 in July. According to IHS Markit, the PMI showed an improvement across the region with the pace of improvement the quickest in three months. Among the seven ASEAN countries covered by IHS Markit, five of the countries reflected an expansion in August, with the exception of Thailand and Myanmar. While the improvement in the PMI may be due to the end of Eid al-fitr festive season which happened in June-July this year, we believe the recovery also reflected a global economy that continues to strengthen with growth becoming more entrenched and synchronised across major economies. Economic Update ASEAN Weekly Wrap Singapore s PMI rose to 51 in August, after the dismal performance in July at Both Malaysia and Indonesia also showed improvement, with the manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4 and 50.7 respectively in August, from 48.3 and 48.6 respectively in the previous month. Philippines, which showed a strong expansion of 52.8 in July, moderated to 50.6 in August. On the other hand, Thailand and Vietnam was relatively unchanged at 49.5 and 51.8 respectively (Thailand at 49.6 while Vietnam at 51.7 in July). According to IHS Markit, the ASEAN manufacturing sector returned to growth in August, with the PMI showing an improvement in overall business conditions. The expansion was supported by a mix of strengthened demand from both domestic and external sources. Most of the positive expansion was due to renewed expansion in both total new orders and output, where total new inflows grew at the fastest pace for four months during August, supported by renewed growth in exports sales. Growth in the order book volumes also lifted production level with output across the region increased for the first time since May. Despite the positive outlook, we believe some manufacturers are adopting a cautious approach towards purchasing activity and stocks. Preproduction stocks fell for an eleventh month, though at a slower rate as compared to July. Seperately, Indonesia s inflation rate slowed further to 3.82% in August (3.9% in July), which may the reason for Bank Indonesia (BI) s decision to cut its policy rate in August MPC meeting. The inflation rate was lower than market expectations at 3.95% and slightly slower than the inflation rate in July at 3.88%. The core inflation rate, which excludes government-controlled and volatile food prices, was down from 3.05% in July to to 2.98% in August. Fig 1: ASEAN economic releases (1 7 Sept ) Economic Research (603) alan.tan@affinhwang.com izzuddin.yussof@affinhwang.com maisarah.razali@affinhwang.com OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG GENERAL CONSENSUS CPI (%yoy) Philippines Indonesia Thailand PMI Manufacturing (Index) Malaysia Thailand Philippines Indonesia Singapore Source: All data from Bloomberg and CEIC, consensus from Bloomberg Page 1 of 6
2 8 September Appendix I: ASEAN economic charts (1 7 Sept ) Chart 1: Malaysia s trade Chart 2: Indonesia s inflation Chart 3: Indonesia inflation breakdown Chart 4: Philippines CPI breakdown Chart 5: Thailand s CPI Chart 6: Regional PMI Source: All data for charts sourced from CEIC and Bloomberg Page 2 of 6
3 8 September Appendix II: Upcoming ASEAN economic releases charts Chart 7: Malaysia s IPI Chart 8: Singapore s retail sales Chart 9: Phillipines trade Chart 10: Phillipines component share of exports Chart 11: Philipines import breakdown Chart 12: Regional foreign reserves Source: All data for charts sourced from CEIC and Bloomberg Page 3 of 6
4 8 September Appendix III: Monthly ASEAN economic data trend OCT 2016 NOV 2016 DEC 2016 JAN MALAYSIA CPI (%yoy) Core CPI (%yoy) IPI (%yoy) Exports (%yoy) Imports (%yoy) Trade balance (US$bn) Foreign reserves (US$bn) INDONESIA CPI (%yoy) Core CPI (%yoy) IPI (%yoy) Exports (%yoy) Imports (%yoy) Trade balance (US$bn) Foreign reserves (US$bn) PHILIPPINES CPI (%yoy) Core CPI (%yoy) IPI (%yoy) Exports (%yoy) Imports (%yoy) Trade balance (US$bn) Foreign reserves (US$bn) SINGAPORE CPI (%yoy) IPI (%yoy) Non-oil domestic exports (%yoy) Electronic exports Imports (%yoy) Trade balance (US$bn) Foreign reserves (US$bn) AILAND CPI (%yoy) Core CPI (%yoy) IPI (%yoy) Exports (%yoy) Imports (%yoy) Trade balance (US$bn) Foreign reserves (US$bn) REAL GDP (%yoy) 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 MALAYSIA INDONESIA PHILIPPINES SINGAPORE AILAND Source: Bloomberg, CEIC FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG Page 4 of 6
5 8 September Appendix IV: ASEAN Economic Calendar for September September Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday 1 Aug Nikkei PMI Aug CPI Aug 25 Foreign MY Aug Nikkei PMI SG Aug Nikkei PMI MY Jul Trade SG PH Aug Nikkei PMI PH Aug CPI MY Aug 30 Foreign PH Aug Foreign Aug Foreign Sept 1 Foreign Aug Foreign Aug Nikkei PMI Aug CPI Sept 8 Foreign MY Jul IPI SG Jul Retail Sales PH Jul Trade Aug Trade Sept 15 Foreign SG Aug NODX MY Aug CPI MY Sept 15 Foreign Aug Customs Trade SG Aug CPI SG Aug IPI SG Aug Money Supply PH Sept 22 Foreign Aug Trade Aug Money Supply Aug Money Supply =Indonesia, MY=Malaysia, PH=Philippines, SG=Singapore, =Thailand Dates for indicators are subject to change Source: Bloomberg Page 5 of 6
6 8 September Equity Rating Structure and Definitions BUY Total return is expected to exceed +10% over a 12-month period HOLD Total return is expected to be between -5% and +10% over a 12-month period SELL Total return is expected to be below -5% over a 12-month period NOT RATED Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad does not provide research coverage or rating for this company. Report is intended as information only and not as a recommendation The total expected return is defined as the percentage upside/downside to our target price plus the net dividend yield over the next 12 months. OVERWEIGHT Industry, as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to outperform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months NEUTRAL Industry, as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to perform inline with the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months UNDERWEIGHT Industry, as defined by the analyst s coverage universe is expected to under-perform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months This report is intended for information purposes only and has been prepared by Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad (14389-U) ( the Company ) based on sources believed to be reliable. However, such sources have not been independently verified by the Company, and as such the Company does not give any guarantee, representation or warranty (express or implied) as to the adequacy, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information and/or opinion provided or rendered in this report. Facts, information, views and/or opinion presented in this report have not been reviewed by, may not reflect information known to, and may present a differing view expressed by other business units within the Company, including investment banking personnel. Reports issued by the Company, are prepared in accordance with the Company s policies for managing conflicts of interest arising as a result of publication and distribution of investment research reports. Under no circumstances shall the Company, its associates and/or any person related to it be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but are not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profit and damages) arising from the use of or reliance on the information and/or opinion provided or rendered in this report. Any opinions or estimates in this report are that of the Company, as of this date and subject to change without prior notice. Under no circumstances shall this report be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. The Company and/or any of its directors and/or employees may have an interest in the securities mentioned therein. The Company may also make investment decisions or take proprietary positions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views in this report. Comments and recommendations stated here rely on the individual opinions of the ones providing these comments and recommendations. These opinions may not fit to your financial status, risk and return preferences and hence an independent evaluation is essential. Investors are advised to independently evaluate particular investments and strategies and to seek independent financial, legal and other advice on the information and/or opinion contained in this report before investing or participating in any of the securities or investment strategies or transactions discussed in this report. Third-party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data they provide and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to such data. The Company s research, or any portion thereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the consent of the Company. The Company, is a participant of the Capital Market Development Fund-Bursa Research Scheme, and will receive compensation for the participation. This report is printed and published by: Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad (14389-U) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad 22nd Floor, Menara Boustead, 69, Jalan Raja Chulan, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. T : F : research@affinhwang.com Page 6 of 6
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