Economic Monthly ASEAN & India

Transcription

1 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India AKI FUKUCHI ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO YUMA TSUCHIYA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE SINGAPORE APRIL 8 (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION RELEASED ON APRIL 8) MUFG Bank, Ltd. A member of MUFG, a global financial group. Indonesia CPI accelerated to +.% YoY in March Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at +.% YoY in March, slightly accelerating from the previous month (+.% YoY). Looking at the breakdown by items, growth of Housing, Electricity, Gas and Fuel (% of total share) slowed down from the previous month while growth of Transportation, Communication and Finance and Food (around % of share respectively) accelerated from the previous month. In particular, Food recorded +.% YoY, the highest in the last months. The inflation rate still remains with Bank Indonesia (BI) s targeted range of +.-.% YoY. Retail Sales turned positive to +.% YoY in February Retail Sales Index (predicted figure by respondents) recorded +.% YoY in February, turning positive from the previous month (actual figure) which fell into negative territory for the first time in six months. Looking at the breakdown by items, Household Appliances was -.8% YoY, continuing its decline for months owing to the tightening of screening loan applications, while Food, Drinks, and Tobacco (+.% YoY) and Spare Parts & Accessories (+.9% YoY), both with larger share in the overall total, accelerated from the previous month respectively Others Chart:Consumer Price Transportation, Communication & Finance Housing, Electricity, Gas & Fuel Former Policy Rate - 7 Source: Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), Foods Current Policy Rate CPI - Chart : Retail Sales Retail Sales Retail Sales: Food, Drinks, and Tobacco Retail Sales: Household Appliances Retail Sales: Spare Parts & Accessories Retail Sales: Cultural & Recreation Note: 8 figures represent the average of Jan-Feb Source: Bank Indonesia (BI), Economic Monthly ASEAN & India April 8

2 . Malaysia Export was -.% YoY in February, declining for the first time in months Export (in MYR) was -.% YoY in February, declining for the first time in months (since October ). Looking at the breakdown, Mineral Fuels (% of total share) recorded -.% YoY, declining for the first time in months, and weighed on the overall export. The main item Machinery and Transport Equipment (%), which has been showing strong growth, recorded -.% YoY. Meanwhile, Misc Manufactured Articles (%) stood at +.% YoY and maintained its increasing trend. Looking at breakdown by destinations, export to US continued to increase while exports to other major countries declined. CPI decelerated to +.% YoY in February Consumer Price Index (CPI) was +.% YoY in February, decelerating for the second consecutive month and recording the lowest in the last months. Looking at the breakdown by items, Fuels (around 8% of total share) recorded -.% YoY which was the first-time decline in the last months. Other items excluding fuels, Food in particular, also showed lower growth. CPI (Core) also slowed down to +.8% YoY from the previous month (+.% YoY). Chart:Export Others NIEs+ASEAN + India China Japan EU USA Total Chart : Consumer Price Services (left axis) Fuels (left axis) Goods exc Fuels (left axis) CPI (Overall) (left axis) CPI (Core) (left axis) Policy Rate (right axis) (%) Note: 8 figures represent the average of Jan-Febage of Jan-Feb Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, - -. Philippines CPI accelerated to +.% YoY in March Consumer Price Index (CPI, based on the new standard) was +.% YoY in March, accelerating for the third consecutive month. The pace of rise in growth of Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages and Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco accelerated due to the effects of imposing/raising taxes to petroleum products, sugar-sweetened beverages, alcoholic beverages & tobacco as a result of the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) law which took effect in January, and growth of Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels and Transport sustained high level. It is becoming increasingly likely that the inflation rate in the full year of 8 exceeds the central bank s targeted range (-%). Current account balance in Oct-Dec 7 fell into negative for the first in two quarters Current account balance in Oct-Dec 7 recorded USD -. billion, entering negative growth Economic Monthly ASEAN & India April 8

3 for the first time in two quarters. Current account deficit in the full year of 7 was USD -. billion (.8% of GDP), doubled from the previous year s USD -. billion (.% of GDP). Meanwhile, financial account balance in Oct-Dec 7 recorded net inflow of USD. billion as securities investment turned to net inflow and inward direct investment expanded. 7 Chart:Consumer Price Others CPI: Transport CPI: Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels CPI: Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco CPI: Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages Consumer Price Index (CPI, left axis) CPI (Former standard, left axis) (USD bn) Chart: Current Account Current Account (right axis) (% of GDP)... Former Policy Rate. Policy Rate Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, - CA: Secondary Income - CA: Primary Income CA: Services Trade Balance Current Account (CA) - 7 Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), Singapore Non-oil domestic exports recorded -.9% YoY in February, falling for the first time in five months Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) recorded -.9% YoY in February, falling for the first time in five months. Looking at the breakdown by items, the main items such as Electronics (% of total share), Chemicals (%) and Machinery non-electronics (%) all declined although Food (%) jumped to +7.%. Looking at the breakdown by destinations, exports to Japan and South Korea respectively continued to show double-digit growth, and export to US recorded a sharp increase of +.7% YoY while exports to Asia region including China (around %) showed double-digit decrease. Employment increased by +,7 QoQ in Oct-Dec 7 The number of employment was.9 million in Oct-Dec 7 (+,7 QoQ), increasing for the first time in a year. Looking at the breakdown, employment in Manufacturing was 88, (-, QoQ), continuing to contract for more than three years as the industry showed decrease in sectors such as Transport Equipment and Materials while increased in Electronic, Computer & Optical Products and Food, Beverages & Tobacco. Construction was,9 (-,7 QoQ), decreasing for the sixth consecutive quarter. Meanwhile, Services was.7 million (+, QoQ ). Looking at the breakdown of Services industry, the employment increased especially in highly specialized sectors such as Financial & Insurance Services, Education and Healthcare. Economic Monthly ASEAN & India April 8

4 Chart : Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) Others Foods Chemicals Machinery non-electronics Electronics Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) Note: 8 figures represent the average of Jan-Feb Source: Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) Singapore, - - (QoQ, th) Chart : Employment 7 Source: Singapore Ministry of Manpower (MOM), Services Construction Manufacturing Employment. Thailand CPI accelerated to +.8% YoY in March Consumer Price Index (CPI) was +.8% YoY in March, accelerating from the previous month for the first time in four months although remaining at low level. Looking at the breakdown by items, Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages and Transport & Communication, backed by rise in fuel prices, boosted the overall index. Core inflation rate posted +.% YoY, remained stable and low. Minimum Wage in 8 rose +.% on average of 77 provinces Minimum wage was revised on April to 8- THB/Day (.%-7.% increase) depending on the provinces and to. THB/Day (.% increase) on average of 77 provinces. Two provinces ( Chonburi and Rayong ) out of three (Chachoengsao, Chonburi and Rayong) which are designated as the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) and Phuket, one of Southern provinces, reached the highest of THB/Day. Chachoengsao and Bangkok & Vicinities recorded THB/Day. Chart : Consumer Price CPI: Others CPI: Transport & Communication CPI: Housing & Furnishing CPI: Food & Alcoholic Beverages Consumer Price Index (CPI) CPI (Core) (THB per day) Chart : Daily Minimum Wage Maximum Average Minimum Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Thailand, 7 8 Source: Ministry of Labour Thailand, Economic Monthly ASEAN & India April 8

5 Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec. Vietnam Real GDP growth accelerated to +7.% YoY in Jan-Mar Real GDP growth was +7.% YoY in Jan-Mar, accelerating substantially from +.% YoY in Jan-Mar 7 and reaching the highest level since Jan-Mar 8 in terms of growth in Jan-Mar quarter. Looking at the breakdown by industries, Manufacturing accelerated to +.% YoY (Jan-Mar 7: +8.% YoY), Services and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery maintained strong growth of +.7% YoY (Jan-Mar 7: +.% YoY) and +.% YoY (Jan-Mar 7: +.% YoY) respectively. Mining turned to positive growth of +.% YoY (Jan-Mar 7: -.% YoY) although the growth in positive territory was small. Backed by strong figures of Jan-Mar, the government raised the target rate of real GDP growth in 8 from the previous +.%-.7% YoY to +.7% YoY or more. Export accelerated to +.% YoY in Jan-Mar Export in March accelerated to +.% YoY. Export in Jan-Mar stood at +.%, maintaining high growth although decelerating from the previous month. While growth of Electronic Products slowed down, Phones & Spare Parts and Machinery and Transport Equipment maintained strong growth (ytd,%) Chart:Real GDP 8 7 (YoY,%) Chart : Exports Others Textile Commodities Foods & agro/aqua products Machinery, Transport equipment PC, electronic components Phones & Spare Parts Total Real GDP (%) Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery (%) Mining (8%) Manufacturing (%) Construction (%) Service (9%) Note: Figures in ( ) shows the % share in total GDP(7). Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Source: General Statistical Office of Vietnam, 7. India CPI decelerated to +.% YoY in February Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded +.% YoY in February, decelerating for the second consecutive month. Looking at the breakdown by items, Housing (+8.% YoY, % of share) and Fuel and Light (+.8% YoY, % of share) maintained high growth. Meanwhile, Food and Beverages, which accounts for around % of total share, recorded +.% YoY (Jan: +.% YoY), decelerating for the second consecutive month, and weighed on the overall index. Current account deficit widened to -.% of Nominal GDP in Oct-Dec 7 Current account balance was USD -. billion (-.% of Nominal GDP) in Oct-Dec 7, its deficit widened from the previous quarter. Balance on services and balance on income maintained surplus while deficit in goods widened on the back of an increase in import. Looking Economic Monthly ASEAN & India April 8

6 at financial account balance, portfolio investment and other investments widened surplus while direct investment recorded USD. billion, the lowest level since Jan-Mar Chart:Consumer Price Policy Rate CPI: Food and Beverages, Tobacco CPI: Miscellaneous CPI: Fuel and Light CPI: Housing CPI: Clothing and Footwear Consumer Price Index (CPI) Source: Government of India Central Statistics Office (CSO), - - (% of Nominal GDP) Chart : Current Account - Current Account FDI Portfolio Investment Other Investment Error Overrall Balance - 7 Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation India, Economic Monthly ASEAN & India April 8

7 Appendix: Economic indicators in major Asian economies Indonesia Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) 8 9, Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD),7,, Q Q Q 8Q DEC JAN-8 FEB MAR Real GDP Growth Rate (.9) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) Industrial Production Index (.8) (.) (.7) (.9) (.) (.) (.) (-.) Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit),,9,,79,79, 9,7 7, 7,7 8,98 9,97 9, (-.) (.9) (.) (-.7) (7.8) (-.) (-.) (.) (-.9) Consumer Price Index* (.) (.) (.8) (.) (.8) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) Exports (fob) (USD mn),,8 8,8 9,8,,,87,,97 (-.) (-.) (.) (7.9) (.) (.) (7.) (8.) (.8) Imports (cif) (USD mn),9,,9,7,7,9,9,9, (-9.9) (-.9) (.7) (.9) (.9) (.) (8.) (7.9) (.) Trade Balance (USD mn) 7,7 9,,88,7, Current Account Balance (USD mn) -7,9 -,9-7,9 -,797 -,7 -,7 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),8,9,87 9,99,8,87,87 8,98, BI Rate 7. 7-day Reverse Repo Rate Exchange Rate (IDR/USD)*,9,,8,9,,8,79,7,79,98,7 Stock Index,9.,9.7,.7,89.7,9.9,.7,89.,.7,.,97.,89. Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. 7-day Reverse Repo Rate w as adopted as benchmark on August 9,. Source: Bank Indonesia (BI), CEIC, Bloomberg etc, Malaysia Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q Q Q 8Q DEC JAN-8 FEB MAR GDP Per Capita (USD) 9, 9,9 9,8 Real GDP Growth Rate (.) (.) (.9) (.8) (.) (.9) Industrial Production Index (.7) (.) (.) (.) (.7) (.7) (.8) (.) Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit),7 8,8 7,9,,,9,79,7,78 (.) (-.) (-.) (-.) (-.) (-.7) (-.) (-.) (-.) Consumer Price Index (.) (.) (.8) (.8) (.) (.) (.) (.7) (.) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 99,88 89,798 7,89,, 8,9 9,9,9 7,977 (-.9) (-.7) (.8) (.) (.) (.9) (.) (.8) (.) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 7, 8, 9,9,79 9,88, 7,79 8,9,7 (-.7) (-.) (.8) (.) (.9) (9.) (8.) (.8) (.) Trade Balance (USD mn),,,9,7,,8,779,, Current Account Balance (USD mn) 9,9,9 9,,,98,9 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 9,979 9,7,878 97,9 99,,878,878,8,9 Three-month KLIBOR (%) Exchange Rate (MYR/USD)* Stock Index,9.,.7,79.8,7.7,7.,79.8,8.,79.8,88.,8.,8. Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), CEIC etc, Philippines Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) 9 Population (person mn) Q Q Q 8Q DEC JAN-8 FEB MAR GDP Per Capita (USD),88,9,987 Real GDP Growth Rate (.) (.9) (.7) (.7) (7.) (.) Industrial Production Index (.) (.9) (-.) (-.) (-.) (-8.) (-9.) (.9) Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit),,88 7,9,8,7,8,9,,7 (9.) (.9) (7.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) Consumer Price Index (.7) (.) (.9) (.) (.9) (.) (.) (.9) (.) (.8) (.) Exports (fob) (USD mn) 8,87 7,,,7,9,9,8,9 (-.) (-.) (.) (.7) (8.) (.) (.) (.) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 7,7 8,8 9,8,9,7,99 8,98 8, (8.7) (8.) (.) (.) (.9) (7.8) (.) (.) Trade Balance (USD mn) -, -,7-9,8 -,8 -,87 -, -,89 -,7 Current Account Balance (USD mn) 7, -,99 -,8 -,8 -,97 -, Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 7,9 7, 7, 7,8 7,897 7, 7, 7,7 7, TB Rate Exchange Rate (PHP/USD)* Stock Index,9.,8. 8,8. 7,8. 8,7. 8,8. 7, ,8. 8,7. 8,7. 7,979.8 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales: Quarterly/Monthly sales are based on data by Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines (CAMPI) /only Calender Year sales include data by Association of Vehicle Importers and Distributors (AVID) (some are duplicated). Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas(BSP), IMF, CEIC etc, 7 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India April 8

8 Singapore Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) Q Q Q 8Q DEC JAN-8 FEB MAR GDP Per Capita (USD),99, 7,7 Real GDP Growth Rate (.) (.) (.) (.8) (.) (.) Industrial Production Index (IPI) (-.) (.7) (.) ( 8.) ( 9.) (.8) (.) (.9) (8.9) Real Retail Sales Index (RSI) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (- 9.) Consumer Price Index (-.) (-.) (.) (.8) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) Exports (fob) (SGD mn) 9,8,9,,7 8,7,9,9,8 8,97 (-.) (-.) (.) (8.) (.) (.) (.) (9.) (-.) Imports (cif) (SGD mn),,,,8,,98, 8,,8 (-.) (-.7) (.) (.) (.) (9.) (.) (.8) (.8) Trade Balance (SGD mn) 8,,7,899,9,9,9,89,8,9 Current Account Balance (SGD mn) 77,8 8,97 8,,8, 7,7 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 7,, 79,9,9 7, 79,9 79,9 8,7 Three-month SIBOR (SGD,%) Exchange Rate (SGD/USD)* Stock Index,88.7,88.8,.9,.,9.9,.9,8.,.9,.,7.9,8. Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Singapore Department of Statistics, CEIC etc, Thailand Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn).7.9. GDP Per Capita (USD),8,9,88 7 7Q Q Q 8Q DEC JAN-8 FEB MAR Real GDP Growth Rate (.) (.) (.9) (.9) (.) (.) Industrial Production Index (.) (.) (.) (.8) (.) (.) (.8) (.7) (.7) Private Consumption Indicator (.) (.8) (.) (.9) (.8) (.) (.) (.9) (.) Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 799, 78,788 87,7 99,9,7,9,, 7, (-9.) (-.9) (.) (.) (.) (8.) (.) (.) (.) Consumer Price Index (-.9) (.) (.7) (.) (.) (.9) (.) (.8) (.7) (.) (.8) Unemployment Rate (%)* Exports (fob) (USD mn),,,,88,, 9,98 9,9 9,87 (-.) (.) (9.7) (7.9) (.) (.) (9.) (.7) (7.7) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 87,8 77,7, 9,8,9, 8,7 8,8 7,8 (-.) (-.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.8) Trade Balance (USD mn),798,9,8,,,,,,89 Current Account Balance (USD mn), 8,7 9,78 7,8,9,77,7,,7 Capital and Financial Account (USD mn) -,799 -, -8,8 -,77-7, -,89, -,8 External Debt (USD mn),78,9 8,99,78 8,9 8,99 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),,7 9, 79, 9,977 9, 9, 8,,7 One-day Repo Rate (%) Exchange Rate (THB/USD)* Stock Index,88.,.9,7.7,7.7,7.,7.7, Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: Bank of Thailand (BOT), NESDB, CEIC etc, Vietnam Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) 9 Population (person mn) Q Q Q 8Q DEC JAN-8 FEB MAR GDP Per Capita (USD),9,,8 Real GDP Growth Rate (.7) (.) (.8) (.) (7.) (7.7) (7.) Industrial Production Index (9.8) (7.) (9.) (8.) (9.7) (.) (.) (.) (.9) (8.) (8.7) Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (Unit) 8,8 7,8,,9 9,8,78,9,8, (.) (.) (-7.8) (-.) (-.) (-.) (-.9) (9.) (-8.8) Consumer Price Index (.) (.7) (.) (.) (.) (.7) (.8) (.) (.7) (.) (.7) Exports (fob) (USD mn),7 7,8,,9,78 9,97,8 9,,,7 9,8 (7.9) (9.) (.) (.) (.) (.8) (.) (8.7) (.) (9.) (.) Imports (cif) (USD mn),7 7,8,8,7,88 7,9,7 9,888,, 9, (.) (.) (.) (.) (.8) (.) (.8) (7.) (.) ( 7.) (.) Trade Balance (USD mn) -,,777,8 -,9,, Current Account Balance (USD mn) 9 8, 7 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn) 8,,7 9,9, Refinancing Rate Exchange Rate (VND/USD)*,9,,78,7,7,77,7,7,7,7,77 Stock Index ,7. 98.,.,.,7. Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), IMF, CEIC etc, 8 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India April 8

9 India Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn),,7 Population (person mn),8,99, FY FY FY FY7Q FY7Q FY7Q FY7Q DEC JAN-8 FEB MAR GDP Per Capita (USD),9,7 Real GDP Growth Rate (8.) (7.) (.7) (.) ( 7.) Industrial Production Index (IPI) (.) (.) (.9) (.) (.9) (7.) (7.) Motor Vehicle Sales: Passenger Vehicle (PV),789,8,,9 77, 9,87 79,9 9,7 8,77 7,9 (7.) (9.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (7.) (7.8) Wholesale Price Index (-.) (.8) (.) (.8) (.8) (.) (.8) (.) (.9) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) Exports (fob) (SGD mn),9 7,9 7, 7,8 7, 7,77,9,8 (-.) (.) (8.) (.7) (.) (.) (.) (.) Imports (cif) (USD mn) 8,7 8,78,8 8, 9,78,99, 7,8 (-.) (.8) (.9) (9.7) (.8) (.) (.) (.) Trade Balance (USD mn) -8,77-8,8 -,7 -,8 -, -, -,7 -,979 Current Account Balance (USD mn) -,88 -,9 -,9-7, -, Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),89,9,987 79,77 89, 89,,, Repo Rate(%) Exchange Rate (INR/USD)* Stock Index, 9,,99,9,8,7,99,7,9,8,99 Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. Nominal GDP, GDP Per Capita, and Real GDP Grow th Rate are at - market price base. Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Central Statistics Office, CEIC etc, 9 Economic Monthly ASEAN & India April 8

10 Cambodia Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) 7 8 Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) ,,,, Real GDP Growth Rate (.) (7.) (7.) (7.) (7.) (.9) (7.) Consumer Price Index (.) (.) (.9) (.9) (.9) (.) (.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn) , -,98 -, -,7 -,7 Trade Balance (USD mn) -,8 -, -, -,9 -, -,7 -, Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),,,7,,,88 8,9 External Debt (USD mn),8,7,8 7, 7,9 9,9 NA Exchange Rate (KHR/USD)*,8,9,,7,8,8,9 Myanmar Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) 988,8,7,8,7,9, Real GDP Growth Rate 9. (.) ( 7.) ( 8.) ( 8.) ( 7.) (.9) Consumer Price Index ( 7.7) (.) (.) ( 8.9) (.) ( 9.) (.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn),9 -, -,8 - -,887 -, -,88 Trade Balance (USD mn),8-9 -, -, -, -,7 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),77 7,,9 8,,,8 NA External Debt (USD mn) 8,7 8,9 7,8 7,,, NA Exchange Rate (MMK/USD)* ,.,.87 Bangladesh Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD) ,,,7 Real GDP Growth Rate. (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) (7.) Consumer Price Index (7.) (.9) (8.7) (.8) (7.) (.) (.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn),7 -,8-7,88,9,9,8 Trade Balance (USD mn) -7,8 -, -,7 -, -,8-9,97-9, Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn), 8,, 7,,78 7,,77 External Debt (USD mn),88 7,77 8,9,997, 8, NA Exchange Rate (BDT/USD)* Pakistan Major Economic Indicators Nominal GDP (USD bn) Population (person mn) GDP Per Capita (USD),,9,88,9,,9, Real GDP Growth Rate (.) (.7) (.) (.) (.7) (.7) (.) Consumer Price Index (.) (.7) (.) (7.) (8.) (.) (.9) Current Account Balance (USD mn) -,9 -,8 -,9 -, -,79 -,9 Trade Balance (USD mn) -,98 -, -, -9,8 -, -,88 -,8 Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD mn),,8,,,87 7,8 9, External Debt (USD mn),,,,7,,8 NA Exchange Rate (PKR/USD)* Note: *Average value during the period, End-of-period values. Trade balance is BOP base. Myanmar's Nominal GDP, Real GDP Growth Rate, GDP Per Capita and External Debt are FY (Apr-Mar) base. Myanmar's exchange rate system was transformed from fixed exchange rate system to managed float regime in April. Bangladesh and Pakistan's Nominal GDP, GDP Per Capita, Real GDP Grow th Rate, Current Account Balance and Trade Balance are FY (Jul-Jun) base. Source: ADB, IMF, Economic Monthly ASEAN & India April 8

11 Appendix: Comparison of economic indicators in major Asian economies. Nominal GDP (USD bn) ,88 8, 97, 9 7 7,87 9,8 7, ,, 9, ,,97 9 8,8 9 97,7,9, 7,, 7,. Population (person mn) ,., ,., ,7., ,8., ,99., ,., GDP Per Capita (USD),79,8,9,7,7,7,9,,,,7,79,9,78 7,,9,98,8 7, 8,,97,9,8,89,89 7,7,7,, 7,,8,87 7,87,7 9,,88,99,8,9,9 7,978,,8 7,, 9,9,9,,9,,7 8,97,98, 7, 7,878 9,8,987 7,7,88,8 8,87,,. Real GDP Growth Rate Q Q Q Q 7.. Consumer Price Index Note: India's figures are FY (Apr-Mar) base. India's Real GDP Growth Rate after FY are / and market price base. Figures before FY are - and factor cost base. Source: Individual country statistics, IMF, CEIC, Economic Monthly ASEAN & India April 8

12 . Total Reserves Minus Gold (USD bn) , , , , , ,9 8 Mar ,8 9 7 Apr ,9 7 May ,7 7 Jun , Jul , 9 79 Aug , 8 Sep ,8 9 8 Oct ,8 9 8 Nov ,8 8 Dec ,9 8 Jan ,8 9 Feb-8 7, 9 7. External Debt (USD bn)(end-of-period value) , , ,78, ,8, 9 9 7,, ,7, Exchange Rate to USD (Average value during the period) 9, , ,7,8....7, ,9, , ,, , ,, , , 7, , , Source: Individual country statistics, IMF, World Bank, Bloomberg, For further details, please contact the Economic Research Office, MUFG Bank Managing Director, Yasuhiro Ishimaru Tel: +8-()-- Written by Aki Fukuchi <aki_fukuchi@mufg.jp> Yuma Tsuchiya<yuma_tsuchiya@sg.mufg.jp> This report is intended for information purposes only and shall not be construed as solicitation to take any action such as purchasing/selling/investing financial market products. In taking any action, each reader is requested to act on the basis of his or her own judgment. This report is based on information believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. The contents of the report may be revised without advance notice. Also, this report is a literary work protected by the copyright act. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without express statement of its source. This report is also available for viewing online. Economic Monthly ASEAN & India April 8