Asia Bond Monitor November 2015

Transcription

1 1 February 16 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) decided on 11 February to keep unchanged the overnight borrowing rate at.% and the overnight lending facility at 6.%. Interest rates on special deposit accounts and reserve requirement ratios were also maintained at current levels. The BSP stated that average inflation for would likely settle in the range of.%.%. The central bank noted downward pressure on inflation coming from slower global economic activity and lower oil prices; and upward pressure coming from the effects of El Nino on food and utilities prices, as well as pending adjustments in power rates. Industrial production growth in Malaysia rose to.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in December from 1.8% y-o-y in November. The accelerating growth was driven by the higher annual increase in the electricity index of.6% in December compared with.% in November. Meanwhile, the mining index continued to contract in December, falling 1.% y-o-y after declining.1% y-o-y in November. The Philippines merchandise exports contracted for the ninth consecutive month in December. Exports declined.% y-o-y in December to US$.7 billion following a 1.1% y- o-y decrease in November. The decline in exports was largely due to annual decreases in six major commodity groups: articles of apparel and clothing accessories (.7%), chemicals ( 9.%), other manufactures (.8%), machinery and transport equipment ( 17.%), metal components ( 16.%), and electronic equipment and parts (.%). Japan s current account surplus narrowed to JPY961 billion in December from JPY1,1 billion in November, mainly due to a drop in the primary income account surplus to JPY1,1 billion from JPY1, billion a month earlier. The services account also posted a deficit of JPY171 billion in December after a surplus of JPY6 billion in November. Meanwhile, the goods account posted a JPY189 billion surplus in December, a reversal from the JPY7 billion deficit posted in the previous month. The People s Republic of China s (PRC) foreign exchange reserves fell US$99. billion month-on-month in January to US$,1 billion. The decline was due mainly to steps taken by the People s Bank of China to defend the currency. In Indonesia, foreign exchange reserves slipped to US$1.1 billion in January from US$1.9 billion in December. The decline was attributed to foreign debt payments, including servicing for maturing global bonds. According to Bank Indonesia, the Asia Bond Monitor November 1 read more 1-Year Selected LCY Government Security Yields Close of 1 February 16 basis point change from Markets Latest Closing Previous Day* Previous Week* 1-Jan-1* US EU Japan PRC Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Korea, Rep. of Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Selected Government Security Yields Benchmark Yield Curves - Local Currency Government Bonds -versus-1 Yield Spread Chart Policy Rate versus Charts Credit Default Swap Spreads & Exchange Rate Indexes Selected Debt Security Issuances Selected Asia Data Releases reserves can cover the cost equivalent of either 7. months worth of imports or 7. months of imports and repayments of the government s external debt. Some of the largest government bond issuances last week included (i) Indonesia s -year project-based sukuk (Islamic bonds) worth IDR,9 billion at a yield of 8.1% and a coupon of 7.7%, and -year project-based sukuk worth IDR1, billion with a yield of 8.% and a coupon rate of 8.%; (ii) Japan s -year government bond worth JPY87.9 billion at a yield of 1.7% and a coupon rate of 1.%; and (iii) Thailand s.7-year government bond worth THB.8 billion with a yield of 1.6% and a coupon rate of.%. Local currency government bond yields in emerging East Asia fell for all tenors in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand, and for most tenors in Singapore widely tracking movements in US Treasuries. On the other hand, yields were mixed in Hong Kong, China and the Philippines while it was unchanged in the PRC and Viet Nam as both markets were closed for the Lunar New Year and Tet holidays, respectively

2 ..... Summary Text of News Articles Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Leaves Policy Rates Unchanged... The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) decided on 11 February to keep unchanged the overnight borrowing rate at.% and the overnight lending facility at 6.%. Interest rates on special deposit accounts and reserve requirement ratios were also maintained at current levels. The BSP stated that average inflation for would likely settle in the range of.%.%. The BSP noted downward pressure on inflation coming from slower global economic activity and lower oil prices; and upward pressure coming from the effects of El Nino on food and utilities prices, as well as pending adjustments in power rates. For policy rate trends in the Philippines, refer to this link: Industrial Production Growth in Malaysia Eases in December... Industrial production growth in Malaysia rose to.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in December from 1.8% y-o-y in November. The accelerating growth was driven by the higher annual increase in the electricity index of.6% in December from.% in November. The manufacturing index grew.% y-o-y in December, down slightly from the.1% y-o-y increase posted in November. The mining index continued to contract in December, declining 1.% y-o-y after dipping.1% y-o-y in November. Philippine Merchandise Exports Contract in December... The Philippines merchandise exports contracted for the ninth consecutive month in December. Exports declined.% y-o-y in December to US$.7 billion, following a 1.1% y-o-y decrease in November. The decline was largely due to annual decreases in six major commodity groups: articles of apparel and clothing accessories (.7%), chemicals ( 9.%), other manufactures (.8%), machinery and transport equipment ( 17.%), metal components ( 16.%), and electronic equipment and parts (.%). Japan s Current Account Surplus Narrows in December... Japan s current account surplus narrowed to JPY961 billion in December from JPY1.1 trillion in November, mainly due to the drop in the primary income account surplus to JPY1. trillion from JPY1. trillion a month earlier. The services account also posted a deficit of JPY171 billion in December after recording a surplus of JPY6 billion in November. Meanwhile, the goods account posted a JPY189 billion surplus in December, a reversal from the JPY71 billion deficit posted in the previous month. The secondary income account deficit narrowed to JPY69 billion in December from JPY189 billion in November. For full-year 1, Japan posted a current account surplus of JPY16.6 trillion, compared with JPY.6 trillion in 1. The PRC s FX Reserves Fall in January; Indonesia s FX Reserves Drop to US$1 billion in January... The People s Republic of China s (PRC) foreign exchange (FX) reserves fell US$99. billion month-on-month in January to US$,1 billion. The decline was due mainly to steps taken by the People s Bank of China to defend the currency. Indonesia s FX reserves slipped to US$1.1 billion in January from US$1.9 billion in December. The decline was due mainly to foreign debt payments, including servicing maturing global bonds. According to Bank Indonesia, the reserves can cover 7. months of imports or 7. months of imports and repayments for the government s external debt

3 Selected Government Security Yields -Month Selected LCY Government Security Yields Markets Close of 1 February 16 Latest Closing Previous Day* basis point change from Previous Week* 1-Jan-16* US EU Japan PRC..... Hong Kong, China India Korea, Rep. of Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Markets Close of 1 February 16 1-Year Selected LCY Government Bond Yields Latest Closing Previous Day* basis point change from Previous Week* 1-Jan-16* US EU Japan PRC Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Korea, Rep. of Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam EU = European Union, LCY =local currency, PRC = People s Republic of China, US = United States. Source: Based on data from Bloomberg, LP.

4 asianbondsonline.adb.org Benchmark Yield Curves LCY Government Bonds. US 1.6 EU 1.7 Japan China, People s Rep. of. Hong Kong, China 9. Indonesia Korea, Republic of.8 Malaysia 6. Philippines Singapore.7..7 Thailand Viet Nam EU = European Union, LCY = local currency US = United States. Source: Based on data from Bloomberg.

5 - versus 1- Year Yield Spread Chart US EU Japan China, People's Rep. of 1-Feb-16 -Feb-16 9-Jan-16 Hong Kong, China Indonesia Korea, Rep. of Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam basis points EU = European Union, US = United States. Source: Based on data from Bloomberg LP.

6 Policy Rate versus China, People s Rep. of Hong Kong, China Indonesia BI Rate 1-year Lending Rate HKMA Base Rate Dec-1 Mar-1 Jul-1 Nov-1 Mar-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Feb-1 Jun-1 Oct-1 Feb-16 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jul-1 Nov-1 Mar-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Feb-1 Jun-1 Oct-1 Feb-16 Dec-1Mar-1 Jul-1 Nov-1Mar-1 Jul-1 Oct-1Feb-1 Jun-1 Oct-1Feb-16 The PRC uses the 1-year lending rate as one of its policy rates. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority maintains a Discount Window Base Rate. Bank Indonesia uses its reference interest rate (BI rate) as its policy rate. Korea, Republic of Malaysia Philippines 6 c Overnight Policy Rate Overnight Reverse Repo Rate 7-day Repo Rate Dec-1 Mar-1 Jul-1 Nov-1 Mar-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Feb-1 Jun-1 Oct-1 Feb Dec-1 Mar-1 Jul-1 Nov-1 Mar-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Feb-1 Jun-1 Oct-1 Feb Dec-1Mar-1 Jul-1 Nov-1Mar-1 Jul-1 Oct-1Feb-1 Jun-1 Oct-1Feb-16 The Bank of Korea shifted its policy rate from the overnight repurchase (repo) rate to the 7-day repo rate in March 8. Bank Negara Malaysia uses the overnight policy rate (OPR) as its policy rate. Bangko Sentral uses the Philippine overnight reverse repurchase agreement rate as one of its policy instruments. Thailand Viet Nam 1-day Repo Rate 16 1 Prime Lending Rate Dec-1Mar-1 Jul-1 Nov-1Mar-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Feb-1Jun-1 Oct-1 Feb-16.8 Dec-1Mar-1 Jul-1 Nov-1Mar-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Feb-1 Jun-1 Oct-1 Feb-16 The Bank of Thailand replaced the 1-day repurchase rate with the 1-day repurchase rate in January 7 as its policy rate. The State Bank of Viet Nam uses a benchmark prime lending rate as its policy rate. 6

7 Mid spread in basis points asianbondsonline.adb.org Credit Default Swap Spreads and Exchange Rate Indexes Credit Default Swap Spreads Senior -Year* China, People's Rep. of Indonesia Korea, Rep. of Japan Malaysia Philippines Thailand Viet Nam 1 1 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-1 May-1 Oct-1 Feb-16 * In US$ and based on sovereign bonds Source: Bloomberg Exchange Rate Indexes (vis-à-vis US$, January 7=1) 1 1 China, People's Rep. of 1 1 Indonesia Korea, Rep. of Malaysia Philippines 1 1 Thailand Singapore 9 9 Viet Nam Source: AsianBondsOnline calculations based on Bloomberg data. Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-1 Aug-1 Feb-16 7

8 Selected Debt Security Issuances (8 1 February 16) Auction Average Coupon Amount Offered Amount Issued Markets Date Type of Security (%) (LCY billion) (LCY billion) ID 9-Feb 6-month Islamic Treasury Bills 6.. -year Project-Based Sukuk ,9. -year Project Based Sukuk 8. 8.,. 1,. 7-year Project Based Sukuk year Project-Based Sukuk JP 8-Feb 6-month Treasury Discount Bills -.17,., year Japanese Government Bonds month Treasury Discount Bills -.1,.,9.91 KR 11-Feb 91-day Monetary Stabilization Bonds 1.1 1,. 1,. 1-year Monetary Stabilization Bonds ,. 1,. SG 11-Feb 8-day MAS Bills day MAS Bills day MAS Bills.8.. TH 8-Feb 8-day Treasury Bills Feb 91-day Bank of Thailand Bonds day Bank of Thailand Bonds Feb.7-year Government Bonds LCY = local currency, MAS = Monetary Authority of Singapore. Sources: Local market sources and Bloomberg, LP. 8

9 Selected Asia Data Releases (16 February 16) Economy and Variable Release Date Historical Data Recent Trends Republic of Korea /16 1/1:.% The Bank of Korea s Monetary Policy Board decided on 1 January to keep the base 7-Day Repo Rate /1:.% rate unchanged at 1.%. % 1/1: 1.% 16-Feb 1/16: 1.% Indonesia /17 1/1: 7.7% On 1 January, Bank Indonesia s (BI) Board of Governors decided to low er its BI Rate /1: 7.% benchmark interest rate by basis points to 7.%. % 1/1: 7.% 17-Feb 1/16: 7.% Singapore /17 1/1:.% Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in Singapore declined 7.% year-on-year (y-o-y) NODX 1/1:.% in December after contracting.% y-o-y in November. y-o-y, % 11/1:.% JAN 1/1: 7.% People s Republic of China /18 1/1: 1.% Inflation in the People s Republic of China (PRC), as measured by the Consumer CPI 1/1:.8% Price Index (CPI), inched up to 1.6% y-o-y in December from 1.% y-o-y a month y-o-y, % 11/1: 1.% earlier. JAN 1/1: 1.6% People s Republic of China /18 1/1:.% The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the PRC fell by.9% y-o-y for the second PPI 1/1:.% consecutive month in December. y-o-y, % 11/1:.9% JAN 1/1:.9% Malaysia /18 Q1:.6% Malaysia s real gross domestic product (GDP) grow th eased to.7% y-o-y in Q1 GDP Q1:.7% from.9% y-o-y in Q1. y-o-y, % Q1:.9% Q1 Q1:.7% Republic of Korea /19 1/1: 1% The Republic of Korea s PPI fell.9% y-o-y in December, the 17th consecutive PPI 1/1:.6% month of y-o-y decline. y-o-y, % 11/1:.7% JAN 1/1:.9% Philippines /19 1/1: 86 The Philippines posted a US$81 million balance of payments (BOP) surplus in BOP 1/1: 16 December, a reversal from the US$11 million deficit recorded in November. US$ million 11/1: 11 JAN 1/1: 81 Singapore /19 Q1:.8% GDP grow th in Singapore rose to.% y-o-y in Q1 from 1.8% y-o-y in Q1. GDP Final Q1:.1% y-o-y, % Q1: 1.8% Q1 Q1:.% Source: AsianBondsOnline, Bloomberg LP, and Reuters. 9

10 News Articles: Sources for Further Reading Tip: Click on link to open a new browser (Acrobat Reader 8); for older versions right-click to open a new browser) Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Leaves Policy Rates Unchanged Monetary Board Maintains Monetary Policy Settings Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (11 February 16) Industrial Production Growth in Malaysia Eases in December Index Of Industrial Production, Malaysia December 1 Department of Statistics Malaysia (1 February 16) Philippine Merchandise Exports Contract in December Merchandise Export Performance : December 1 Bank of Thailand ( February 16) Japan s Current Account Surplus Narrows in December Balance of Payments Statistics, December 1 (Preliminary) Ministry of Finance Japan (8 February 16) Balance of Payments Statistics, 1 C.Y. (Preliminary) Ministry of Finance Japan (8 February 16) The PRC s FX Reserves Fall in January; Indonesia s FX Reserves Drop to US$1 billion in January China FX reserves fall almost $1 bln to lowest since May 1 Reuters (6 February 16) Foreign Exchange Reserves Indonesia Fall to $1 Billion in January Indonesia-Investments (7 February 16) Official Reserve Assets Amounted to US$1.1 Billion as of End January 16 Bank Indonesia ( February 16) Disclaimer: AsianBondsOnline Newsletter is available to users free of charge. ADB provides no warranty or undertaking of any kind with respect to the information and materials found on, or linked to, the AsianBondsOnline Newsletter. ADB accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of the material posted or linked to in the publication, or the information contained therein, or for any consequences arising from its use, and does not invite or accept reliance being placed on any material or information so provided. Views expressed in articles marked with AsianBondsOnline are those of the authors and not ADB. This disclaimer does not derogate from, and is in addition to, the general terms and conditions regarding the use of the AsianBondsOnline website, which also apply. 1