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1 BOT raised GDP growth forecasts for and 2018 BOT kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.5% for eighteen straight month Bank of Thailand (BOT) maintained its policy rate, i.e. one-day repurchase rate, at 1.5% for eighteen straight meeting since April 2015, in view of managable inflationary pressure but steadier economic performance. According to BOT, the country s GDP growth outlook improved further due to a better export performance but cautioned that domestic demand continued to expand at a gradual pace and not yet sufficiently broad-based. Economic Update ASEAN Weekly Wrap As a result, on the inflation front, BOT cited that the country s headline inflation softened but also cautioned that it might fall below the lower bound of the target in some periods mainly due to supply-side factors. Although BOT expects headline inflation to rise in the latter half of this year, we believe any increase in inflationary pressure will likely to be subdued, especially when the factors supporting private consumption from non-farm income has not gained much from the export recovery, and BOT also noted that the country s overall purchasing power had yet to fully recover. In the latest MPC meeting, BOT raised Thailand s GDP growth forecasts for and 2018, where it expect economic growth to expand by 3.5% for, before recovering to 3.7% in 2018, an increase of 0.1 percentage point for each year. However, the central bank cautioned that the downside risks will be from uncertainty in US economic and foreign trade policies, China s economic structural reforms, as well as geopolitical risks that could affect trading partners economies. We believe BOT will likely keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.5% in 2H17, in view of the downside risks to global growth. However, in the short to medium term, we believe growth momentum in the global economy remains in tact, supporting the economic performance of the Asean region. The latest global PMI, which remained solid at 52.6 in June, the same level as in May, provided some indications of sustained growth in the regional manufacturing sector in 2H17. Although Asean manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slowed from 50.5 in May to 50 in June, we expect some improvement in the months ahead, partly due to continued favourable China s economy. Across the Asean countries, Philippines PMI remained at the high of 53.9 in June, followed by Vietnam (52.5) and Thailand (50.4). On the other hand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore continued to register manufacturing PMI below the 50 threshold. Malaysia s manufacturing PMI, which declined to a record low of 46.9 in June, also the main drag to Asean manufacturing PMI, will likely to be temporary, as strong increase in the country s exports and manufacturing production in 2Q17, will likely reverse the PMI higher in the months ahead. Economic Research (603) alan.tan@affinhwang.com izzuddin.yussof@affinhwang.com maisarah.razali@affinhwang.com Fig 1: ASEAN economic releases (30 June 6 July ) JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Policy rate (%) Thailand PMI Manufacturing (Index) Asean Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Source: All data from Bloomberg and CEIC, consensus from Bloomberg Page 1 of 6

2 Appendix I: ASEAN economic charts (30 June 6 July ) Chart 1: Thailand s policy rate Chart 2: Thailand s inflation Chart 3: Thailand s latest GDP growth forecast Chart 4: Global manufacturing PMI Chart 5: Asean PMI vs Asean GDP Chart 6: Regional manufacturing PMI Source: All data for charts sourced from CEIC and Bloomberg Page 2 of 6

3 Appendix II: Upcoming ASEAN economic releases charts Chart 7: Singapore s GDP Chart 8: Singapore s retail sales Chart 9: Philippines trade Chart 10: Malaysia s policy rate Chart 11: Malaysia s trade Chart 12: Malaysia s production Source: All data for charts sourced from CEIC and Bloomberg Page 3 of 6

4 Appendix III: Monthly ASEAN economic data trend AUG SEP OCT NOV MALAYSIA CPI (%yoy) Core CPI (%yoy) IPI (%yoy) Exports (%yoy) Imports (%yoy) Trade balance (US$bn) Foreign reserves (US$bn) INDONESIA CPI (%yoy) Core CPI (%yoy) IPI (%yoy) Exports (%yoy) Imports (%yoy) Trade balance (US$bn) Foreign reserves (US$bn) PHILIPPINES CPI (%yoy) Core CPI (%yoy) IPI (%yoy) Exports (%yoy) Imports (%yoy) Trade balance (US$bn) Foreign reserves (US$bn) SINGAPORE CPI (%yoy) IPI (%yoy) Non-oil domestic exports (%yoy) Electronic exports Imports (%yoy) Trade balance (US$bn) Foreign reserves (US$bn) THAILAND CPI (%yoy) Core CPI (%yoy) IPI (%yoy) Exports (%yoy) Imports (%yoy) Trade balance (US$bn) Foreign reserves (US$bn) REAL GDP (%yoy) 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 MALAYSIA INDONESIA PHILIPPINES SINGAPORE THAILAND Source: Bloomberg, CEIC DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Page 4 of 6

5 Appendix IV: ASEAN Economic Calendar for July July Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday MY June Nikkei PMI ID May money supply SG June Nikkei PMI TH June consumer confidence MY May trade TH June Nikkei PMI PH June CPI MY June 30 Reserves TH June CPI TH MPC Meeting TH June 30 Reserves PH June Nikkei PMI SG June Reserves ID June Nikkei PMI PH June Reserves ID June CPI ID June Reserves June consumer SG 2Q17 GDP PH May trade ID MY MPC Meeting TH Jul. 7 Reserves confidence MY SG May IPI May Retail Sales SG June NODX MY June CPI ID MPC meeting TH Jul. 14 Reserves ID June trade SG June CPI SG June CPI SG June IPI TH Jul. 21 Reserves TH June trade MY ID PH SG. 31 ID=Indonesia, MY=Malaysia, PH=Philippines, SG=Singapore, TH=Thailand Dates for indicators are subject to change Source: Bloomberg Page 5 of 6

6 Equity Rating Structure and Definitions BUY Total return is expected to exceed +10% over a 12-month period HOLD Total return is expected to be between -5% and +10% over a 12-month period SELL Total return is expected to be below -5% over a 12-month period NOT RATED Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad does not provide research coverage or rating for this company. Report is intended as information only and not as a recommendation The total expected return is defined as the percentage upside/downside to our target price plus the net dividend yield over the next 12 months. OVERWEIGHT Industry, as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to outperform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months NEUTRAL Industry, as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to perform inline with the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months UNDERWEIGHT Industry, as defined by the analyst s coverage universe is expected to under-perform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months This report is intended for information purposes only and has been prepared by Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad (14389-U) ( the Company ) based on sources believed to be reliable. However, such sources have not been independently verified by the Company, and as such the Company does not give any guarantee, representation or warranty (express or implied) as to the adequacy, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information and/or opinion provided or rendered in this report. Facts, information, views and/or opinion presented in this report have not been reviewed by, may not reflect information known to, and may present a differing view expressed by other business units within the Company, including investment banking personnel. Reports issued by the Company, are prepared in accordance with the Company s policies for managing conflicts of interest arising as a result of publication and distribution of investment research reports. Under no circumstances shall the Company, its associates and/or any person related to it be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but are not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profit and damages) arising from the use of or reliance on the information and/or opinion provided or rendered in this report. Any opinions or estimates in this report are that of the Company, as of this date and subject to change without prior notice. Under no circumstances shall this report be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. The Company and/or any of its directors and/or employees may have an interest in the securities mentioned therein. The Company may also make investment decisions or take proprietary positions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views in this report. Comments and recommendations stated here rely on the individual opinions of the ones providing these comments and recommendations. These opinions may not fit to your financial status, risk and return preferences and hence an independent evaluation is essential. Investors are advised to independently evaluate particular investments and strategies and to seek independent financial, legal and other advice on the information and/or opinion contained in this report before investing or participating in any of the securities or investment strategies or transactions discussed in this report. Third-party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data they provide and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to such data. The Company s research, or any portion thereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the consent of the Company. The Company, is a participant of the Capital Market Development Fund-Bursa Research Scheme, and will receive compensation for the participation. This report is printed and published by: Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad (14389-U) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad 22nd Floor, Menara Boustead, 69, Jalan Raja Chulan, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. T : F : research@affinhwang.com Page 6 of 6