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1 Research Division Monthly Unit Trust Review AMB Dec 2011:The MUTI continues expansion albeit slumps in the stock markets TABLE 1: MAJOR & REGIONAL INDICES AS AT 30 DECEMBER 2011 Index Points % MOM % YOY 1. FBM KLCI 2. JCI Index 3. SET Index 4. STI Index 1, , , , (2.1) (0.7) (17.0) 5. KOSPI Index 6. SSE Index 7. Hang Seng Index 8. TWSE Index 9. DJIA Index 10. DAX Index 11. Nikkei225 Index 1, , , , , , ,455.4 (1.2) (5.7) (3.1) 0.2 (11.0) (21.7) (20.0) (21.2) 5.5 (14.7) (17.3) 14 FEB /012 STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE The year 2011 saw increased challenges in the Malaysian Unit Trust Industry (MUTI). This was attributed to volatile global stock markets arising from debt crisis in the Eurozone and US, geopolitical tension in the Middle-East and North African region (MENA) and slowing China economy. The earthquake and tsunami in Japan similarly had adversely impacted global stock market performance. Hence, the global economy had also slowed during the last year. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy grew at an estimated 3.8% in 2011 from 5.2% recorded in The MSCI World index ended the year with a 7.6% y-o-y decline to 1,182.6 points after charting 9.6% y- o-y increase in (see Table 1) 12. MSCI World Index 13. MSCI Europe Index 1, MSCI Asia Ex-Japan Index Source: Bloomberg (0.2) (2.0) 0.5 (7.6) (14.5) (19.2) The US stock market had performed better than its European and Asian counterparts, with the DJIA index gaining 5.5% y-oy to 12,217.6 points supported by the strong year-end performance amid encouraging economic data releases. TABLE 2: FUND GROUP CLASSIFICATION Group Classification 1. EQUITY 1.1 International Eq. 1.2 Eq. By Sector 1.3 Eq. Malaysia 2. BOND 3. MIXED ASSETS 4. MONEY MARKET 5. OTHERS 5.1 Protected 5.2 Target Maturity 5.3 Commodity 5.4 Others INDUSTRY # of Y Rtn (12/31/09-12/31/10) # of Y Rtn (12/31/10-12/30/11) (6.67) (13.45) (5.85) (0.70) (1.67) (8.05) (9.71) (26.43) (1.56) CHART 1: MUTI S 1-YEAR RETURN PERFORMANCE (2010 vs 2011) MUTI EQUITY BOND MIXED ASSETS MONEY MARKET OTHERS Meanwhile, many of the main markets in Europe posted their worst year since 2008 due to the debt crisis issues which saw the MSCI Europe index plunged by 14.5% y-o-y as at end In Asia, the continued escalation of the debt crisis in the Eurozone, amidst high-unemployment rate and sharp economic slowdown in the single-currency region had dampened growth of the regional stock markets with the MSCI Asia ex-japan falling by 19.2% y-o-y as at end-december 2011, after surging 17.0% y-o-y in 2010, given that the Euro Zone is an important export destination for emerging Asian economies. While other Asian markets ended the year with negative returns, Indonesian and Malaysian stock markets performed better by recording positive y-o-y returns of 3.2% and 0.8% respectively. Stock markets in the export-oriented countries suffered huge losses on the back of sluggish economic data, led by China s SSE index declined by 21.7% y-o-y. This was followed by Taiwan s TWSE index which had declined by 21.2%, Hong Kong s Hang Seng index which had fallen by 20.0% and Singapore s STI index which had dropped by 17.0% y-o-y. On the local front, the FBM KLCI rallied towards the end of the year on sentiment that the US economic activities are improving. After registering 1.3% m-o-m decline in November, the FBM KLCI rose above 1500 points in December and closed at 1,530.7 points to register a gain of 4.0% for the month. On a y-o-y, the FBM KLCI index gained marginally by 0.8% as compared with 2010 s 19.3% increase. DISCLAIMER: This report is for information purposes only. We have based the data and information in these document on information and sources we believe to be reliable. We do not guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Any recommendation or opinion that is provided in this document does not have regard to the investment objective and particular needs of any specific addressee, if any. Contents of this publication are extremely prohibited from being republished or quoted in any other types of medium and/or publication.

2 CHART 2: 1-YEAR RETURNS OF EQUITY CATEGORIES MUTI s RETURN PERFORMANCE - For the whole year of 2011, the 1-year return of the Malaysian Unit Trust Industry (MUTI) had dropped by 1.56% on average after registering a 9.53% increase in the preceding year. (see Table 2) Asia Europe & US Global Malaysia CHART 3: NEW FUNDS LAUNCHED TO CHART 4: TYPE OF FUNDS LAUNCHED IN 2011 TABLE 3: UNIT TRUST INDUSTRY STATISTICS Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1H11 2H Protected 4 6%, FiMM Funds Target maturity 6 9% Money market 11 17% New Others 8 13% Mixed asset 6 9% B units %mom %yoy RM B Bond 4 6% Equity 26 40% %mom (5.6) %yoy (23.8) By asset classes, the equity category had declined by 6.67% following 13.45% drop charted by the international equity category. (see Table 2) Out of 116, only 4 had registered positive 1-year returns, while the remaining 112 (mainly equity Asia ) posted negative returns. By markets, invested in Asian markets (81 ) on average had declined by 14.70%, while global (31 ) fell by 10.44% and Europe s and US markets (4 ) dropped by 9.14%. The 1-year return on equity Malaysia category also chartered a fell, albeit marginally by 0.70% y-o-y. (see Chart 2) The money market category had outperformed all the other categories with a 5.58% return. The protected category ranked second with an average 1-year return of 2.28%, while target maturity category was third recording a 1.65% return. (see Table 2) The mixed asset category ended the year unchanged at 0.03% while bond category reported minus 1.67% return. MUTI s NEW LAUNCHES - There were 65 new launched in 2011 as compared with in (see Chart 3) By type of, there were 26 equity which consisted of 19 international equity and 7 equity Malaysia. There were 11 money market, 6 target maturity and mixed asset respectively, 4 bond, 4 protected and 8 unclassified. (see Chart 4) The subscription rate of these new launches stood at 24.3% or 7.1B units, which had contributed to 24.3% or 7.1B units of net inflows to the MUTI s (Jan-Dec 2011:.2B units). The total number of in the MUTI rose to in 2011 from 616 charted in Out of the, 317 were equity (157 equity Malaysia, 131 international equity and equity by sector ) and 118 mixed asset. The other were 80 money market, 68 bond and target maturity, 20 protected, 11 unclassified and 3 commodity. UNITS IN CIRCULATION () - The MUTI s grew stronger by 9.6% y-o-y to B units in 2011, after growing by 7.2% y-o-y to 303.6B units in 2010 (see Table 3). The growth of in 2011 had also surpassed the 8.0% target set for the whole year largely attributed to equity asset class. The of equity category advanced by 10.4% y-o-y or 24.4B units to 258.4B units (see Table 4). The growth was better than the 7.6% y-o-y increase or 16.6B units to 234.1B units recorded in DISCLAIMER: This report is for information purposes only. We have based the data and information in these document on information and sources we believe to be reliable. We do not guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Any recommendation or opinion that is provided in this document does not have regard to the investment objective and particular needs of any specific addressee, if any. Contents of this publication are extremely prohibited from being republished or quoted in any other types of medium and/or publication.

3 TABLE 4: UNIT TRUST INDUSTRY STATISTICS 1. EQUITY 1.1 International Eq. 1.2 Eq. by Sector 1.3 Eq. Malaysia 2. BOND 3. MIXED ASSETS 4. MONEY MARKET 5. OTHERS 5.1 Protected 5.2 Target Maturity 5.3 Commodity 5.4 Others INDUSTRY 1. EQUITY 1.1 International Eq. 1.2 Eq. by Sector 1.3 Eq Malaysia 2. BOND 3. MIXED ASSETS 4. MONEY MARKET 5. OTHERS 5.1 Protected 5.2 Target Maturity 5.3 Commodity 5.4 Others INDUSTRY No of No of (8.0) (4.0) (10.0) B units Change RM B No of No of B units RM B 24.4 (7.4) () 1.6 (1.1) (1.1) 0.3 (0.0) (0.3) (3.8) (0.6) (0.9) 0.3 (0.0) (0.0) (10.5) (6.0) (33.3) B units % YOY 10.4 (15.0) (0.5) 5.6 (14.9) (24.7) 27.2 (15.5) (22.1) 9.5 RM B (26.7) (8.6) (20.0) 26.1 (23.0) (1.9) CHART 5: (B units) OF EQUITY CATEGORY BY GEOGRAPHICAL FOCUS Asia Europe & US Global Malaysia CHART 6: (RM bill) OF EQUITY CATEGORY BY GEOGRAPHICAL FOCUS A sia Europe & US Global M alaysia Under the equity category, the of equity Malaysia category charted a steadier growth of 17.4% y-o-y or 31.1B units to 209.9B units, compared with 15.6% or 24.2B units to 178.8B units in (see Table 4) The of equity by sector category recorded minimal inflows of 0.7B units to 6.6B units in 2011 as against 2.9B units net inflow to 5.9B units in the preceding year. The slowdown was partly due to fewer new launches totalling 3 in 2011 as against 10 a year ago. (see Table 4) The international equity category had continued to decline by 15.0% y-o-y or 7.4B units in 2011 to 42.0B units, after registering net outflows of 10.5B units in (see Table 4) The large withdrawals were seen in investing in Asian markets totalling 6.2B units. (see Chart 5) Meanwhile, the bond category had expanded favourably by 4.2B units or 27.6% y-o-y to 19.3B units, despite the number of declined to 68 in 2011 from recorded in the preceding year. Meanwhile, the money market category had risen by 5.6% or 1.6B units to.3b units supported by the increased number of new launches. (see Table 4) The expansion in these two categories was attributed by investors seeking safe haven investments to protect their investment from the increased volatility in stock markets caused by the elevated uncertainty in the global economic outlook. Other categories had experienced outflows led by the protected category with its declining by 24.7% y-o-y or 1.1B units to 3.4B units in 2011 due to the maturity of its 10. The of mixed asset category was unchanged at 19.1B units, while the commodity category dropped by 15.5% y-o-y to B units. (see Table 4) By unit trust management companies (UTMCs), the growth of MUTI s in 2011 was largely contributed by a double-digit growth in ASNB and rising demand from offered by other 38 UTMCs. In 2011, from.2b units received, 17.2B units or 59% was gained from ASNB while 12.0B units or 41% were from the other UTMCs. Compared with the previous year s net inflows of 20.5B units, ASNB had contributed higher at 83% or 17.1B units as against 17% or 3.4B units from other UTMCs. NET ASSET VALUE () The MUTI s had surged by % y-o-y or RM25.6B to RMB in The expansion of the MUTI s, however, was slower as compared with 19.8% to RM239.7B charted in the previous year. (see Table 3) By market share contribution of MUTI s, 77% were from equity category, where 94% was gained from equity Malaysia category, 5% from international equity category and 1% from equity by sector category. Money market was the second largest category with a 10% market share, followed by the bond category with 7%, mixed asset category with 3% and from other categories - protected, target maturity, commodity and unclassified - another 3%. DISCLAIMER: This report is for information purposes only. We have based the data and information in these document on information and sources we believe to be reliable. We do not guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Any recommendation or opinion that is provided in this document does not have regard to the investment objective and particular needs of any specific addressee, if any. Contents of this publication are extremely prohibited from being republished or quoted in any other types of medium and/or publication.

4 CHART 7: MUTI S (B units) FROM 2008 TO 2012F Based on the additional net of RM25.6B, 75% or RM19.1B was derived from the equity category. The equity Malaysia category had received RM22.7B in 2011, followed by the equity by sector with RM0.2B while the of international equity had declined by RM3.8B. (see Table 4) Going forward, the MUTI s and are expected to continue their growth momentum but at a slower pace on increased volatilities in stock markets, given the greater uncertainties in the outlook of domestic and global economy in F CHART 8: MUTI S (RM bill) FROM 2008 TO 2012F After registering a commendable y-o-y growth in 2011, the MUTI s is expected to moderate to chart a single-digit growth of 8%-9% to 361.1B units. Meanwhile, the MUTI s is expected to grow by 15%-16% to RM306.6B by year s end. (see Chart 7 & 8) Expansion is expected to emanate from the equity category, with equity Malaysia category contributing the most to growth on the expectation that the FBM KLCI will grow 2.6% y-o-y to close at a projected 1,570 points in The ASNB fixed priced will be the catalyst of MUTI s expansion, as reflected by their resounding growth for the past four years, where these had been contributing almost 40% or 108B units on average per year. (see Chart 9) F CHART 9: CONTRIBUTION FROM (B units) ASNB fixed priced Other UTMCs' The and of the international equity category, on the other hand, will continue to be eroded as the global and regional equity markets are expected to remain volatile with investors continuing to monitor the developments in the Eurozone and the pace of US economic activities in an environment of increased risk aversion. 80.8B units 34% 10B units 35% 117.2B units 39% 134.3B units 40% New launches in 2012 would likely remain focused on the less risky categories such as bond, money market, target maturity and protected. We expect a slowdown in international equity fund launches in 2012 as the global equity markets face escalated risks and uncertainties B units 66% 181.1B units 65% 184.5B units 61% 196.4B units 60%

5 Table 1.1: Industry - AFS, & NAC No. of Funds New AFS NAC UTMCs Funds Change Billion units % m-o-m % y-o-y Billion units % m-o-m % y-o-y Million units % m-o-m % y-o-y Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov De c J-Dec J-Dec Q Q Q Q H H

6 Table 1.2: Industry -, MCAP & KLCI # MCAP KLCI RM Billion % m-o-m % y-o-y RMB % m-o-m % y-o-y Points % m-o-m % y-o-y , , , , , , , , Jan , , Feb , , Mar , , Apr , , May , , Jun , , Jul , , Aug , , Sep , , Oct , , Nov , , Dec , , J-Dec J-Dec Q , , Q , , Q , , Q , , H , , H , ,

7 Table 1.3: Industry Ratios /AFS / /MC /NAC AFS/NAC /NAC % RM % RM unit unit ,715 21,932 12, ,806 25,698 13, ,842 33,330 15, ,201 37,884 18, ,583 39,356 19, ,607 40,624 20, ,846 41,424 21, Jan ,554 41,207 20,911 Feb ,717 41,141 20,896 Mar ,983 41,519 20,925 Apr ,226 41,480 21,080 May ,216 40,464 20,798 Jun ,665 41,846 21,314 Jul ,484 41,485 21,219 Aug ,954 41,538 21,246 Sep ,362 41,905 21,208 Oct ,595 40,595 20,777 Nov ,237 41,973 21,567 Dec ,158 41,930 21, J-Dec ,607 40,624 20, J-Dec ,846 41,424 21,121 1Q ,085 41,289 20,911 2Q ,369 41,263 21,064 3Q ,933 41,643 21,224 4Q ,997 41,499 21,285 1H ,727 41,2 20,987 2H ,965 41,571 21,254

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