Asia Bond Monitor March 2015

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1 June 1 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Consumer price inflation in Malaysia accelerated to.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in May from 1.8% y-o-y in April, mainly due to more rapid price increases for food and non-alcoholic beverages, which were up.% y-o-y in May compared with.1% y-o-y in April, as well as for housing and utilities (.6% versus.%). The Producer Price Index in the Republic of Korea fell.% y-o-y in May, the tenth consecutive month of a y-o-y decline. This drop in producer prices was largely brought about by a.8% y-o-y decrease in prices for manufacturing industry products. Between April and May, the Producer Price Index inched up.1%. On 18 June, Bank Indonesia decided to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 7.%, where it has been since February. Bank Indonesia also held steady the deposit facility rate at.% and the lending facility rate at 8.%. The Bank of Japan announced that it would maintain its monetary easing measures, stating that the domestic economy was recovering moderately and this trend was expected to continue. Inflation is expected to remain unchanged in the short term due to the decline in energy prices, though it is expected to rise in the long term. Japan's merchandise trade deficit widened to JPY16 billion in May from JPY6 billion in April as exports declined at a faster pace than imports. Exports of goods declined 1.% month-on-month (m-o-m) to JPY.7 trillion in May from JPY6. trillion in April, while merchandise imports contracted 9.8% m-o-m to JPY.96 trillion from JPY6.61 trillion. Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in Singapore contracted.% y-o-y in May in a reversal from.% y-o-y growth in April. Overseas Filipino remittances grew.9% y- o-y to US$. billion in April, down from 11.% y-o-y growth in March. For the first months of the year, overseas Filipino remittances reached US$8.6 billion. The Philippine government recorded a budget surplus of PHP.6 billion in April, reversing the PHP17. billion budget deficit posted in March. Total revenues in April amounted to PHP9.1 billion and expenditures reached PHP16. billion. Retail sales growth in Singapore accelerated to.% y-o-y in April from 1.9% y- o-y in March, mostly due to the 6.% y-o-y jump in retail sales of motor vehicles. In the People s Republic of China last week, Ctrip.com International issued a US$1.1 billion mulit-tranche convertible bond. The first Asia Bond Monitor March 1 read more 1-Year Selected LCY Government Security Yields Close of 19 June 1 basis point change from Markets Latest Closing Previous Day* Previous Week* 1-Jan-1* US EU Japan PRC Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Korea, Rep. of Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Selected Government Security Yields Benchmark Yield Curves - Local Currency Government Bonds -versus-1 Yield Spread Chart Policy Rate versus Charts Credit Default Swap Spreads & Exchange Rate Indexes Selected Debt Security Issuances Selected Asia Data Releases tranche was issued at a size of US$7 million and with a maturity of years and a put option exercisable in the rd year. The first tranche was issued at a coupon rate of 1.%. The second tranche has a maturity of 1 years and was issued at a size of US$ million. The second tranche has a put option exercisable in the th year and was issued at a coupon rate of 1.99%. Yields fell for all tenors in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore and for most tenors in all other markets except in Viet Nam, following the fall in US yields. US yields fell due to increased demand for safe haven assets over renewed concerns over Greece s debt. Yields rose for all tenors in Viet Nam. As a result, the -year versus 1-year yield spread fell for all markets except Viet Nam. The upcoming issue of the Asia Bond Monitor (ABM) will be released on June in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia and will available for download on the AsianBondsOnline website

2 ..... Summary Text of News Articles Inflation Accelerates in Malaysia in May; Producer Prices Fall in the Republic of Korea for Tenth Consecutive Month in May Consumer price inflation in Malaysia accelerated to.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in May from 1.8% y-o-y in April, mainly due to more rapid price increases for food and non-alcoholic beverages, which were up.% y-o-y in May compared with.1% y-o-y in April, as well as for housing and utilities, which rose.6% from.% in the same period. The Producer Price Index in the Republic of Korea fell.% y-o-y in May, the tenth consecutive month of a y-o-y decline, based on data from the Bank of Korea. This decline in producer prices was largely brought about by a.8% y- o-y decrease in prices of manufacturing industry products. Between April and May, the Producer Price Index inched up.1%. For inflation rate trends in Malaysia, refer to this link: Bank Indonesia Keeps Benchmark Interest Rate Steady at 7.%; BOJ Maintains Monetary Policy Easing Measures In a meeting held on 18 June, Bank Indonesia s Board of Governors decided to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 7.%, which is where it has been since February. Bank Indonesia also held steady the deposit facility rate at.% and the lending facility rate at 8.%. At current levels, these rates aim to steer inflation toward Bank Indonesia s 1 target range of.%.% and to help narrow the current account deficit to.%.% of gross domestic product in the medium term. At its monetary policy meeting on 19 June, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it would maintain its monetary easing measures. BOJ stated that the domestic economy was recovering moderately and this trend was expected to continue. Inflation was expected to remain unchanged in the short term due to the decline in energy prices, though it is expected to rise in the long term. Risks to the outlook include the pace of economic recovery in the United States (US) and debt problems and macroeconomic developments in the eurozone. For policy rate trends in Indonesia, refer to this link: For policy rate trends in Japan, refer to this link: Japan s Merchandise Trade Deficit Widens in May; Singapore s NODX Contract.% y-o-y in May Japan's merchandise trade deficit widened to JPY16 billion in May from JPY6 billion in April as exports declined at a faster pace than imports. Exports of goods decreased 1.% month-on-month (m-o-m) to JPY.7 trillion in May from JPY6. trillion in April, while merchandise imports contracted 9.8% m-o-m to JPY.96 trillion from JPY6.61 trillion. Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in Singapore contracted.% y-o-y in May in a reversal from.% y-o-y growth in April. The lower figure in May was due mainly to the.% y-o-y decline in electronic NODX, which outweighed.8% y- o-y growth in non-electronic NODX. With the exception of the US; the Republic of Korea; Thailand; and Hong Kong, China; all markets recorded negative y-o-y growth in NODX. On a seasonally adjusted m-o-m basis, NODX fell.1% in May. Remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers Rose.9% y-o-y in April Remittances from overseas Filipino workers grew.9% y-o-y to US$. billion in April, down from 11.% y-o-y growth in March. Of these inflows, 7%, or US$6 billion, came from land-based workers with contracts of 1 year or more. Landbased workers with contracts of less than 1 year and sea-based workers cumulatively contributed %, or US$.1 billion. The remaining % came from other household-to-household transfers, such as Filipinos abroad sending money to relatives in the Philippines. For the first months of the year, overseas Filipino remittances reached US$8.6 billion

3 ..... Summary Text of News Articles The Philippines Budget Surplus at PHP.6 Billion in April The Philippine government recorded a budget surplus of PHP.6 billion in April, reversing the PHP17. billion budget deficit posted in March. On a y-o-y basis, however, the budget surplus in April was % lower than last year s surplus of PHP8.8 billion. Total revenues in April amounted to PHP9.1 billion and expenditures reached PHP16. billion. The Philippines recorded a budget surplus of PHP19.1 billion in the first months of the year, compared with a PHP.1 billion budget deficit in the same period a year earlier. Retail Sales in Singapore Rise.% y-o-y in April Retail sales growth in Singapore accelerated to.% y-o-y in April from 1.9% y-o-y in March, mostly due to the 6.% y-o-y jump in retail sales of motor vehicles. Four other retail sales sub-sectors recorded y-o-y growth in April: department stores (.%), medical goods and toiletries (.%), watches and jewelry (.%), and telecommunications apparatus and computers (.8%). On a seasonally adjusted m-o-m basis, retail sales grew.8% in April. Ctrip.com Issues Multi-Tranche Convertible Bond in the PRC In the People s Republic of China last week, Ctrip.com International issued a US$1.1 billion multi-tranche convertible bond. The first tranche was issued at a size of US$7 million and with a maturity of years and a put option exercisable in the rd year. The first tranche was issued at a coupon rate of 1.%. The second tranche has a maturity of 1 years and was issued at a size of US$ million. The second tranche has a put option exercisable in the th year and was issued at a coupon rate of 1.99%....

4 Selected Government Security Yields -Month Selected LCY Government Security Yields Markets Close of 19 June 1 Latest Closing Previous Day* basis point change from Previous Week* 1-Jan-1* US EU Japan..... PRC Hong Kong, China India Korea, Rep. of Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Year Selected LCY Government Bond Yields Markets Close of 19 June 1 Latest Closing Previous Day* basis point change from Previous Week* 1-Jan-1* US EU Japan PRC Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Korea, Rep. of Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam EU = European Union, LCY =local currency, PRC = People s Republic of China, US = United States. Source: Based on data from Bloomberg, LP.

5 asianbondsonline.adb.org Benchmark Yield Curves LCY Government Bonds. US 1.6 EU 1.9 Japan China, People s Rep. of. Hong Kong, China 9. Indonesia Korea, Republic of. Malaysia. Philippines Singapore. Thailand 8. Viet Nam EU = European Union, LCY = local currency US = United States. Source: Based on data from Bloomberg.

6 - versus 1- Year Yield Spread Chart US EU Japan China, People's Rep. of 19-Jun-1 1-Jun-1 -Jun-1 Hong Kong, China Indonesia Korea, Rep. of Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam basis points EU = European Union, US = United States. Source: Based on data from Bloomberg LP. 6

7 Policy Rate versus China, People s Rep. of Hong Kong, China Indonesia year Lending Rate BI Rate Jan-1 Jul-1 Feb-1 Sep-1 Apr-1 Nov-1 Jun-1 HKMA Base Rate. Jan-1 Jul-1 Feb-1 Sep-1 Apr-1 Nov-1 Jun-1 Jan-1 Jul-1 Feb-1 Sep-1 Apr-1 Nov-1 Jun-1 The PRC uses the 1-year lending rate as one of its policy rates. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority maintains a Discount Window Base Rate. Bank Indonesia uses its reference interest rate (BI rate) as its policy rate. Korea, Republic of Malaysia Philippines 6 c Overnight Reverse Repo Rate 7-day Repo Rate Overnight Policy Rate Jan-1 Jul-1 Feb-1 Sep-1 Apr-1 Nov-1 Jun Jan-1 Jul-1 Feb-1 Sep-1 Apr-1 Nov-1 Jun Jan-1 Jul-1 Feb-1 Sep-1 Apr-1 Nov-1 Jun-1 The Bank of Korea shifted its policy rate from the overnight repurchase (repo) rate to the 7-day repo rate in March 8. Bank Negara Malaysia uses the overnight policy rate (OPR) as its policy rate. Bangko Sentral uses the Philippine overnight reverse repurchase agreement rate as one of its policy instruments. Thailand Viet Nam 1-day Repo Rate 16 1 Prime Lending Rate Jan-1 Jul-1 Feb-1 Sep-1 Apr-1 Nov-1 Jun-1.9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Feb-1 Sep-1 Apr-1 Nov-1 Jun-1 The Bank of Thailand replaced the 1-day repurchase rate with the 1-day repurchase rate in January 7 as its policy rate. The State Bank of Viet Nam uses a benchmark prime lending rate as its policy rate. 7

8 Mid spread in basis points asianbondsonline.adb.org Credit Default Swap Spreads and Exchange Rate Indexes Credit Default Swap Spreads Senior -Year* China, People's Rep. of Indonesia Korea, Rep. of Japan Malaysia Philippines Thailand Viet Nam 1 1 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Feb-1 Jun-1 * In US$ and based on sovereign bonds Source: Bloomberg Exchange Rate Indexes (vis-à-vis US$, January 7=1) 1 1 China, People's Rep. of 1 1 Indonesia Korea, Rep. of Malaysia Philippines 1 1 Thailand Singapore 9 9 Viet Nam Source: AsianBondsOnline calculations based on Bloomberg data. Jan-8 Sep-8 Jun-9 Mar-1 Dec-1 Sep-11 Jun-1 Mar-1 Dec-1 Sep-1 Jun-1 8

9 Selected Debt Security Issuances (1 19 June 1) Auction Average Coupon Amount Offered Amount Issued Markets Date Type of Security (%) (LCY billion) (LCY billion) CN 17-Jun 7-year Treasury Bonds.8... HK 16-Jun 91-day Exchange Fund Bills day Exchange Fund Bills day Exchange Fund Bills Jun 7-day Exchange Fund Bills.1.. ID 16-Jun 1-year Project-Based Sukuk ,1. -year Project-Based Sukuk ,.. -year Project-Based Sukuk JP 16-Jun -year Japanese Government Bonds.1.1,., Jun 1-year Treasury Discount Bills -.,., Jun -month Treasury Discount Bills.,.,9.89 -year Japanese Government Bonds KR 1-Jun 91-day Monetary Stabilization Bonds 1. 1,. 1,. 18-day Monetary Stabilization Bonds 1. 1,. 1,1. 1-year Korea Treasury Bonds.7. 1,86. 1, Jun -year Monetary Stabilization Bonds ,.,. 6-day Treasury Bills 1.9 1,. 1,. MY 18-Jun 7-year Malaysian Government Securities..8.. PH 16-Jun -yr Treasury Bond SG 16-Jun 1-day MAS Bills day MAS Bills Jun 168-day MAS Bills.7.. TH 1-Jun 8-day Treasury Bills day Treasury Bills Jun 91-day Bank of Thailand Bonds day Bank of Thailand Bonds Jun 1-day Bank of Thailand Bonds year Bank of Thailand Bonds VN 16-Jun -year Treasury Bonds 6. 1,.. LCY = local currency, MAS = Monetary Authority of Singapore. Sources: Local market sources and Bloomberg, LP. 9

10 Selected Asia Data Releases ( 9 June 1) Economy and Variable Release Date Historical Data Recent Trends Singapore 6/ /1:.% Singapore s consumer price index declined.% year on year (y-o-y) in April after CPI /1:.% contracting.% y-o-y in March. y-o-y, % /1:.% MAY /1:.% Viet Nam 6/ /1:.% Consumer price inflation in Viet Nam w as 1.% y-o-y for the second month in a CPI 6/1:.% row. y-o-y, % /1: 1.% JUN /1: 1.% Hong Kong, China 6/ /1: 1.6% Export grow th in Hong Kong, China w as.% y-o-y in April after contracting 1.8% Exports /1:.9% y-o-y in March. y-o-y, % /1: 1.8% MAY /1:.% Philippines 6/ /1: 17 The trade balance in the Philippines registered a surplus of US$6 million in March, Trade Balance /1: 8 a reversal from February s deficit of US$87 million. US$ million /1: 87 APR /1: 6 Philippines 6/ /1:.% Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas left its overnight borrow ing rate unchanged at.% on Overnight Borrowing Rate 6/1:.% 6 March. % /1:.% -Jun /1:.% Philippines 6/ /1: 8.8 The Philippines recorded a budget surplus of PHP.6 billion in April in a reversal Budget Balance /1: 11.8 from March s deficit of PHP17. billion PHP billion /1: 17. MAY /1:.6 Viet Nam 6/ to 6/ 1Q1:.1% Viet Nam s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.% y-o-y in the first months of GDP YTD Q1:.% the year, compared w ith.1% y-o-y grow th in the same -month period in 1. y-o-y, % Q1: 6.% Q1 1Q1: 6.% Viet Nam 6/ to 6/ /1: 11.% Retail sales grow th in Viet Nam eased to 9.1% y-o-y in January May from 11.% Retail Sales YTD 6/1: 1.7% y-o-y in the same period a year earlier. y-o-y, % /1: 8.8% JUN /1: 9.1% Viet Nam 6/ to 6/ /1: 1.% Export grow th in Viet Nam eased to 7.% y-o-y in January May from 1.% y-o-y in Exports YTD 6/1: 1.9% the same period a year earlier. y-o-y, % /1: 8.% JUN /1: 7.% Viet Nam 6/ to 6/ /1:.9% Viet Nam s industrial production grow th eased to 7.% y-o-y in May from 9.% Industrial Production 6/1: 6.1% y-o-y in April. y-o-y, % /1: 9.% JUN /1: 7.% Japan 6/6 /1:.% Consumer price inflation in Japan decelerated to.6% y-o-y in April from.% y-o-y CPI /1:.7% in March. y-o-y, % /1:.% MAY /1:.6% Singapore 6/6 /1:.% Industrial production in Singapore contracted 8.7% y-o-y in March after declining Industrial Production /1: 1.9%.% y-o-y in April. y-o-y, % /1:.% MAY /1: 8.7% Japan 6/9 /1:.7% Japan s industrial production grow th slow ed to.1% y-o-y in April from 1.7% y-o-y in March. Industrial Production /1: 1.% y-o-y, % /1: 1.7% MAY /1:.1% Source: AsianBondsOnline, Bloomberg LP, and Reuters. 1

11 News Articles: Sources for Further Reading Tip: Click on link to open a new browser (Acrobat Reader 8); for older versions right-click to open a new browser) Inflation Accelerates in Malaysia in May; Producer Prices Fall in the Republic of Korea for Tenth Consecutive Month in May Consumer Price Index Malaysia May 1 Department of Statistics Malaysia (1 June 1) Producer Price Index during May 1 The Bank of Korea (19 June 1) Bank Indonesia Keeps Benchmark Interest Rate Steady at 7.%; BOJ Maintains Monetary Policy Easing Measures BI Rate Held at 7.% Bank Indonesia (18 June 1) Statement on Monetary Policy Bank of Japan (19 June 1) Japan s Merchandise Trade Deficit Widens in May; Singapore s NODX Contract.% y-o-y in May Value of Exports and Imports May 1 (Provisional) Ministry of Finance Japan (17 June 1) Singapore s External Trade May 1 International Enterprise Singapore Media Release (17 June 1) Remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers Rose.9% y-o-y in April Personal Remittances Sustain Growth in April 1; January- April 1 Level Totals US$8.6 Billion Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (1 June 1) The Philippines Budget Surplus at PHP.6 Billion in April National Government Budget Surplus at P.6 billion in April 1 Department of Finance (18 June 1) Retail Sales in Singapore Rise.% y-o-y in April Retail Sales Index Food & Beverage Services Index April 1 Department of Statistics Singapore (1 June 1) Ctrip.com Issues Multi-Tranche Convertible Bond in the PRC Ctrip lands $1.1b from dual-tranche convertible FinanceAsia (19 June 1 Disclaimer: AsianBondsOnline Newsletter is available to users free of charge. ADB provides no warranty or undertaking of any kind with respect to the information and materials found on, or linked to, the AsianBondsOnline Newsletter. ADB accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of the material posted or linked to in the publication, or the information contained therein, or for any consequences arising from its use, and does not invite or accept reliance being placed on any material or information so provided. Views expressed in articles marked with AsianBondsOnline are those of the authors and not ADB. This disclaimer does not derogate from, and is in addition to, the general terms and conditions regarding the use of the AsianBondsOnline website, which also apply. 11

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