UOA Development UOAD MK Sector: Property
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- Darrell Morton
- 6 years ago
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1 Dividend play In 2016, UOA has thus far launched two projects and plans to launch a third development this year. The total estimated gross development value (GDV) of these three projects is RM3.2bn. Unbilled sales remain healthy at RM1.1bn. Given the group s net cash position, we believe UOA is able to maintain a generous payout. Based on 55% payout, the stock offers an attractive yield of 5.6%. Maintain BUY with a revised target price of RM2.64 (from RM2.57 previously). RM3.2bn of new development, RM1.1bn of unbilled sales UOA has launched two projects this year, which are Danau Kota (previously known as Setapak Development) and soft launched United Point (previously known as Kepong V). UOA also plans to launch Desa Sentul (Phase I) in The total estimated gross development value (GDV) for these three projects are RM3.2bn. As at end-march 2016, group s unbilled sales remain healthy at RM1.1bn Strong balance sheet position vast opportunities With a net cash balance of RM670m as at 30 th March 2016, we believe UOA is able to maintain at least a 50% payout ratio. In FY16, based on 55% payout, the stock offers a decent net yield of 5.6%. In addition, the group is in a strong position to leverage on the current challenging markets for any potential land banking opportunities. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of RM2.64 We make no changes to our earnings forecasts. Maintain BUY on UOA with a revised target price of RM2.64 (from RM2.57 previously) on an updated shareholders fund. Target price is still based on 30% discount to RNAV. Given the current challenging property landscape, we like UOA primarily for its strong balance sheet position, exposure to Greater KL and generous dividend payout. Risk to recommendation Risk to our view is a sharper-than-expected slowdown in Klang Valley property market and high-end residential demand as well as further delay in the development of its Jalan Ipoh project. Earnings & Valuation Summary FYE 31 Dec E 2017E 2018E Revenue (RMm) EBITDA (RMm) Pretax profit (RMm) Net profit (RMm) EPS (sen) PER (x) Core net profit (RMm) Core EPS (sen) Core EPS growth (%) Core PER (x) Net DPS (sen) Dividend Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Company Update UOA Development UOAD MK Sector: Property 21 June 2016 BUY (maintain) Upside 22% Price Target: RM2.64 Previous Target: RM2.57 Price Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute -1.8% +0.5% +1.9% Rel to KLCI -2.4% +5.4% +7.1% Stock Data Issued shares (m) 1,519.7 Mkt cap (RMm)/(US$m) 3,282.5/814.7 Avg daily vol - 6mth (m) wk range (RM) Est free float 17% BV per share (RM) 2.14 P/BV (x) 1.01 Net cash/ (debt) (RMm) ROE (2016F) 10.5% Derivatives Nil Shariah Compliant Yes Key Shareholders UOA Ltd 68.5% Source: Affin, Bloomberg Sharifah Farah (603) farah.jamalullil@affinhwang.com Chg in EPS (%) Affin/Consensus (x) , Affin estimates Page 1 of 7
2 Strong balance sheet Have launched two projects this year As planned, UOA has launched two projects to-date; Danau Kota (previously known as Setapak Development) and soft launched United Point (previously known as Kepong V). Danau Kota Suite Apartments is a residential development comprises of 285 suite apartment and 25 units of 3- storey shop offices. The project is located in Setapak, near Jalan Genting Kelang, and it is close proximity to Wangsa Maju and Melati LRT stations. The sizes of the apartment units range from 818sqft to 1,012sqft with pricing from RM517k. The project has an estimated GDV of RM230m. United Point Residence is a freehold mixed integrated project comprises of three blocks of residential and commercial units. The project is located in Kepong with an estimated GDV of RM1.5bn. UOA targets to also launch Desa Sentul (phase II) this year, which also has an estimated GDV of RM1.5bn. Fig 1: 2016 remaining launches Unbilled sales of RM1.1bn As at 30 th March 2016, UOA s unbilled sales stood at a healthy RM1.1bn. These include South View Serviced Apartments, South Bank in Old Klang Road, Desa Sentul Phase 1 and Desa Green Serviced Apartments. Fig 2: Unbilled sales breakdown by project (RMm) Page 2 of 7
3 Fig 3: Current development as at 30 th March 2016 Fig 4: Lands to be developed Strong balance sheet for potential opportunities With a net cash balance of RM670m as at 30 th March 2016, we believe UOA is in good position to weather the current challenging environment, while at the same time is able to leverage on any potential land banking opportunities. The group maintains its current strategy to focus solely on the Greater KL area. Fig 5: Net cash balance over the last six years Page 3 of 7
4 Attractive dividend yield of 5.6% Given the group s strong balance sheet position, we believe UOA is able to maintain at least a 50% payout ratio. In FY16, based on 55% payout, the stock offers a decent net yield of 5.6%. Fig 6: Dividend payout trend Source: UOA Development, Affin Hwang estimate Maintain BUY with a higher target price of RM2.64 We make no changes to our earnings forecasts. Maintain BUY on UOA with a revised target price of RM2.64 (from RM2.57 previously) on an updated shareholders fund. Target price is still based on 30% discount to RNAV. Given the current challenging property landscape, we like UOA primarily for its strong balance sheet position, exposure to Greater KL and generous dividend payout. Risk to recommendation Risk to our view is a sharper-than-expected slowdown in Klang Valley property market and high-end residential demand as well as further delay in the development of its Jalan Ipoh project. Page 4 of 7
5 Fig 7: UOA s RNAV valuation, Affin Hwang estimate Page 5 of 7
6 UOA Development FINANCIAL SUMMARY Source: UOA Development, Affin Hwang estimate Page 6 of 7
7 Equity Rating Structure and Definitions BUY Total return is expected to exceed +10% over a 12-month period HOLD Total return is expected to be between -5% and +10% over a 12-month period SELL Total return is expected to be below -5% over a 12-month period NOT RATED Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad does not provide research coverage or rating for this company. Report is intended as information only and not as a recommendation The total expected return is defined as the percentage upside/downside to our target price plus the net dividend yield over the next 12 months. OVERWEIGHT Industry, as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to outperform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months NEUTRAL Industry, as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to perform inline with the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months UNDERWEIGHT Industry, as defined by the analyst s coverage universe is expected to under-perform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months This report is intended for information purposes only and has been prepared by Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad (14389-U) (formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Berhad) ( the Company ) based on sources believed to be reliable. However, such sources have not been independently verified by the Company, and as such the Company does not give any guarantee, representation or warranty (express or implied) as to the adequacy, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information and/or opinion provided or rendered in this report. Facts, information, views and/or opinion presented in this report have not been reviewed by, may not reflect information known to, and may present a differing view expressed by other business units within the Company, including investment banking personnel. Reports issued by the Company, are prepared in accordance with the Company s policies for managing conflicts of interest arising as a result of publication and distribution of investment research reports. Under no circumstances shall the Company, its associates and/or any person related to it be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but are not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profit and damages) arising from the use of or reliance on the information and/or opinion provided or rendered in this report. Any opinions or estimates in this report are that of the Company, as of this date and subject to change without prior notice. Under no circumstances shall this report be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. The Company and/or any of its directors and/or employees may have an interest in the securities mentioned therein. The Company may also make investment decisions or take proprietary positions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views in this report. Comments and recommendations stated here rely on the individual opinions of the ones providing these comments and recommendations. These opinions may not fit to your financial status, risk and return preferences and hence an independent evaluation is essential. Investors are advised to independently evaluate particular investments and strategies and to seek independent financial, legal and other advice on the information and/or opinion contained in this report before investing or participating in any of the securities or investment strategies or transactions discussed in this report. Third-party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data they provide and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to such data. The Company s research, or any portion thereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the consent of the Company. The Company, is a participant of the Capital Market Development Fund-Bursa Research Scheme, and will receive compensation for the participation. This report is printed and published by: Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad (14389-U) (formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Berhad) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd Chulan Tower Branch, 3rd Floor, Chulan Tower, No 3, Jalan Conlay, Kuala Lumpur. affin.research@affinhwang.com Tel : Fax : Page 7 of 7
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