Weekly Letter September 26-30, 2016

Transcription

1 Weekly Letter September 26-30, 2016 Summary Romania Developments pg. 2 FX market CEE currencies mostly eased against the EUR this week. RON weakened by 0.12% w/w. The EURRON closed at (the NBR s reference rate) on Friday. Our view / October 3-7 week: We expect RON to trade between Fixed income and Money markets O/N rates picked up. MinFin sold RON 645m in a 7Y T-bond (DBN056) at avg. yield 2.53%. It also raised EUR 1.0bln on foreign markets through the reopening of a 2028 Eurobond at a yield of 2.15%. Debt managers aim to sell RON 3.9bln in October. Secondary market yields recorded inch-changes across the curve. Our view / October 3-7 week: We expect interbank rates to hover around current levels. Economic data NBR kept key interest rate on hold, as expected. 8M'16 fiscal balance recorded a deficit of 0.41% of GDP. ILO unemployment rate edged lower to 6.0% in Aug'16. International Developments OPEC members reached consensus to curb production. Moodys downgraded Turkey s sovereign rating to junk. IFO business climate index surprise jump in September. Eurozone annual inflation rate printed at 0.4% in September. pg.5 Economic Releases October 2016 pg. 6 Ioan MINCU Economist george.mincu-radulescu@brd.ro Issue date 03/10/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /10/2016 Item International Reserves PPI MoM/YoY Retail Sales MoM/YoY Wages Net YoY GDP QoQ/YoY Period Sep Aug Aug Aug 2QF Prior 36.9B -0.5%/-2.3% 0%/13.8% 12.4% 1.5%/6% Page 1 of 6

2 Romania Developments FX Market G1. Performance of regional currencies (spot y-t-d, NBR fixing) Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Source: NBR, BRD GSG G2. Weekly currency evolutions versus EUR Source: NBR, BRD-GSG G3. ROBOR Rates (%) Note: Dec.31=0.0 (%) PLN HUF CZK RON 0.49 Source: NBR, BRD-GSG EURRON EURCZK EURPLN EURHUF -1.20% % -0.12% % 1.02 current HUF 1 week ago RON CZK PLN month ago ON 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M CEE FX weakened against a backdrop of mounting concerns over the health of banks (with Deutsche bank in the limelight) triggering investors' retreat from riskier assets. HUF suffered the biggest loss this week (-1.2%), entirely giving up gains recorded last week, as it felt additional pressure from the incoming referendum on EU migrants quotas, where a strong majority of Hungarian voters is expected to reject the European Union's quotas, although turnout may not be sufficient to make the vote valid. PLN tracked the forint and eased by 0.55% w/w. A cabinet reshuffle took place this week in Poland as the Finance Minister Szalamacha was dismissed from his post, being replaced by Deputy Prime Minister Morawiecki. RON edged lower by 0.12% w/w. CZK traded against the regional trend and gained 0.06% w/w. At this week s monetary policy meeting, Czech National Bank maintained policy rate unchanged and reiterated its commitment to keep the cap on exchange rate strength until mid RON vs EUR RON vs USD Friday NBR ref ch. pips ch. % ch. pips ch. % 1 week month ytd Source: NBR, BRD-GSG (+ = appreciation, - = depreciation) Our view / September week: We expect EURRON to trade between next week. Money Market Liquidity conditions tightened at the beginning of a new reserve maintenance period, impacting the short-end of the curve. O/N rates picked up to 0.49% from 0.44% the previous week, while ROBOR 1M ended unchanged at 0.55%. Longer maturities adjusted lower by 2bps on average. Our view / September week: We expect interbank rates to hover around current levels. Fixed Income Market On Monday, MinFin sold RON 645m, more than planned amount (RON 500m), in the re-opening of a 7Y benchmark bond (RO1522DBN056, Dec 2022). Average yield painted at 2.53% (max. 2.54%), 2bps lower than 2.55% (max. 2.56%) achieved on 11 th of Aug 16, when debt managers last issued this paper. Total bids amounted to RON 976m, thus putting bid-to-cover ratio at 1.5x. Taking advantage of lower borrowing costs and investors increased appetite for riskier assets, MinFin tapped foreign markets on Wednesday by reopening a May 2028 Eurobond issue for a total amount of EUR Page 2 of 6

3 G4. Treasury benchmarks (fixing mid, %) Source: BBG, BRD-GSG G5. May 2028 Eurobond yield Yield Source: BBG, BRD-GSG G6. Budget stance (RON bln, 12M cumulated) Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Total revenues Total expenditures Fiscal gap (right scale) Source: MinFin, BRD-GSG G7. ILO Unemployment Rate Source: NIS, BRD-GSG current 1 week ago 1 month ago 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 11Y yield, % 1.8 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep % ` Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 ILO unemployment bln, thus completing its foreign issuance plan for this year. Final yield printed at 2.15%. That compares to an initial marketing level of 2.3% area, guidance of 2.25% area and final guidance of %. The paper was subscribed 2.5 times. For October 2016, the Ministry of Finance plans to issue RON 3.5bln worth of RON denominated T-bills and bonds and another RON 405m in non-competitive offers. This compares to RON 4.33bln sold in Sep'16. The redemption calendar is a thin one, being comprised of one T-bill worth RON 700m. The auction calendar includes 2 new bond series: DBN055 expiring Sep 31 and DBN035 maturing Feb 19. So far this year, debt managers were able to cover around 80% of the financing requirement (RON 70.5bln, MinFin estimate). MinFin raised roughly RON 38bln and EUR 775m on domestic debt market. MinFin also tapped foreign markets for a total amount of EUR 3.25bln. Secondary market yields recorded inch-changes across the curve, edging a tad lower in belly-to-long end (1-4bps), while picking up by 2bps at the short-end. Auctions - October 2016 ISIN code Date Maturity Source: BBG, Ministry of Finance Economic data Amount planned (RONm) Supplementary session for Noncompetitive (RONm) RO1631DBN055 6-Oct 15Y RO1620DBN Oct 4Y RO1617CTN0F8 13-Oct 1Y 800 RO1624DBN Oct 7Y RO1521DBN Oct 5Y RO1522DBN Oct 7Y RO1619DBN Oct 2Y NBR Board decided to maintain the monetary policy key rate unchanged at 0.75%, in line with our expectations and Bloomberg consensus and to further pursue adequate liquidity management in the banking system. Moreover, NBR Board decided to keep the minimum reserves requirements unchanged at 8% for RON, but to lower them to 10% from 12% for FX-denominated liabilities. The measure aims to continue the harmonization of the minimum reserve requirements mechanism with the relevant standards and practices of the European Central Bank and the major central banks across the European Union. 8M'16 fiscal balance (cash terms) recorded a deficit of RON 3.12bln or 0.41% of expected GDP (RON 758.5bln, MinFin forecast). This compares to a deficit of RON 1.74bln or 0.23% of GDPe recorded in 7M 16. Meanwhile, as compared to the same period last year, fiscal balance weakened significantly (vs. a surplus of RON 6.46bln or 0.91% of GDP in 8M 15) due to a decline in budgetary revenues (-1.9% y/y in 8M 16) coupled with a rise in total expenses (+4.7% y/y). The 12M rolling data shows a budget deficit of RON 19.95bln or 3.00% of GDPe. Page 3 of 6

4 ILO jobless measure (sa), surveying both registered and unregistered persons actively searching for work, edged lower to 6.0% in Aug 16 (vs. 6.1% in Jul 16). Total number of unemployed persons amounted to 529,078, thus recording a monthly decline of 17,213 persons (vs. 546,291 in Jul 16). On an annual basis, total number of jobless persons dropped by 101,008 persons (vs. 630,086 in Aug 15). Male unemployment rate stood at 6.8%, 1.9pp higher than the female unemployment rate (4.9%). In international comparison, ILO jobless rate remains comfortably below Euro area (10.1%) and EU28 average (8.6%). International Developments On Wednesday, OPEC members reached a consensus to curb production volumes, the first such agreement since According to comments from national oil ministers, the group proposed reducing output to a range of million barrels per day from an estimated 33.24m bpd pumped in August. However, some key details, such as how much each country will produce or whether Iran would be allowed an output increase, were left to be discussed at OPEC formal meeting in November, when the new target will be implemented and adopted. The market rewarded Saudi Arabia's and OPEC's intent to return to active management, with a rebound in oil price being recorded (Brent climbed by 7% on a weekly basis to USD 49.2 per barrel). However, uncertainty around the deal might bring higher volatility in prices during the next two months. Concluding a review initiated after the unsuccessful coup attempt, Moody s downgraded Turkey s sovereign credit rating from Baa3 to Ba1 and assigned a stable outlook. As such, Moody's joined Standard &Poor's in rating Turkey below investment grade. The main reasons for Moody s downgrade decision were: i) risks related to the country's weak external position, which have recently become more pronounced as a result of unpredictable political developments and volatile investor sentiment, ii) deteriorating credit fundamentals, particularly institutional strength and economic growth outlook (the agency expects real GDP to grow at an avg. of 2.7% over the period vs. 5.5% over ). Turkey s stable rating outlook was justified by credit-positive considerations: large and flexible economy, positive growth and strong fiscal track record. After two consecutive monthly declines, IFO business climate index, viewed as an important barometer for German economy, recorded a surprise jump in September, from in August to The figure, which marks the highest reading since Jun 14, came well above market expectations of (Reuters consensus). Companies appear to be much more optimistic about the months ahead, with the survey of future expectations increasing to from in Aug 16. At the same time, they are more satisfied with their current business situation, as revealed by the current conditions index, which went up to from Page 4 of 6

5 Business climate improved across all main sectors of the economy. Business expectations in manufacturing sector surged, while retailing saw a rebound in assessments of the current business situation. Construction business climate indicator touched a new record high. According to the flash estimate released by Eurostat, Eurozone annual inflation rate doubled in September to 0.4%, in line with market expectations, on the back of a moderating annual decline in energy prices (-3% y/y vs. -5.6% y/y in Aug). Food prices increased at a slower pace (0.7% y/y vs. 1.3% y/y prev.), while Services inflation was marginally higher (1.2% y/y vs. 1.1% y/y prev.). Core inflation remained stable at 0.8% for the fourth month in a row. Economic Releases October 2016 Date Event Period BBG Survey BRD- GSGf Actual Prior 3-Oct International Reserves Sep B 4-Oct PPI MoM Aug % 4-Oct PPI YoY Aug % 5-Oct Retail Sales MoM Aug % 5-Oct Retail Sales YoY Aug % 7-Oct Wages Net YoY Aug % 7-Oct GDP YoY 2Q F % 7-Oct GDP QoQ 2Q F % 10-Oct Trade Balance Aug Oct CPI MoM Sep % 11-Oct CPI YoY Sep % 12-Oct Industrial Output MoM Aug % 12-Oct Industrial Output YoY Aug % 14-Oct Current Account YTD Aug M 25-Oct Money Supply M3 YoY Sep % Page 5 of 6

6 BRD-GSG - Research Florian LIBOCOR Chief Economist Head of Research florian.libocor@brd.ro Carmen LIPARĂ, PhD Head of Financial Markets Research carmen.lipara@brd.ro Laura SIMION, CFA Equity Analyst laura.simion@brd.ro Ioan MINCU Economist george.mincu-radulescu@brd.ro Disclaimer This publication is issued in Romania by or through BRD Groupe Société Générale (BRD - GSG), which is regulated by the Romanian Securities and Exchange Commission and National Bank of Romania. The information herein is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Investments in emerging markets can involve significant risks, such as uncertainty of dividends, of benefits or of profits, market, foreign exchange, legal, credit, tax and other risks and are not suitable for all investors. The information contained herein, including any expression of opinion, has been obtained from or is based upon sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness although BRD - GSG believes it to be accurate, clear, fair and not misleading at the time of publication. BRD - GSG, and its affiliated companies, may from time to time to deal in, profit from the trading of, hold or act as market-makers or act as advisers, brokers or in relation to the securities, or derivatives thereof, of persons, firms or entities mentioned in this document or be represented on the board of such persons, firms or entities. Employees of BRD - GSG, and its affiliated companies, or individuals connected to them, may from time to time have a positioning or be to holding any of the investments or related investments mentioned in this document. BRD - GSG, and its affiliated companies, are under no obligation to disclose or take account of this document when advising or dealing with or for their customers and may have acted upon or made use of the information in this document prior to its publication. The views of BRD -GSG reflected in this document may change without notice. To the maximum extent possible at law, BRD - GSG does not accept any liability whatsoever arising from the use of the material or information contained herein. This research document is not intended for use by/or targeted to private customers. In case customers obtain a copy of this report, they should not base their investment decisions solely on this document, but must search for independent financial advice. Important notice The circumstances in which materials provided by BRD - GSG have been produced are in such manner (for example because of reporting or remuneration structures or the physical location of the author of the material) that it is not appropriate to characterise it the materials as independent investment research as referred to in European MIFID directive and that it should be treated as a marketing material even if it contains a research recommendation. However, it must be made clear that all publications issued by BRD GSG will be accurate, clear, fair, and not misleading. This publication is also not subject to any prohibition or dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Analyst Certification Each author of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and (ii) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be related, directly or indirectly, to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Copyright BRD - Groupe Société Générale All rights reserved. Nobody can reproduce, redistribute or pass on to any other person or publish in whole or in part for any purpose this publication. Page 6 of 6