Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments

Transcription

1 The central bank of Hungary Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 11 As of the th of June, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) publishes a comprehensive chart-pack about the latest information in financial markets and the macro-economy. Our aim is to provide analysts and the public with a frequently updated, easy-to-use, clear-cut data set, in order to promote better knowledge and understanding of the current economic and financial market situation. The updated chart-pack is published on the day of each rate-setting meeting at pm. Questions and comments are welcome, and should be addressed to info@mnb.hu. The data sources of this document, in whole or in part, do not fall within the scope of Act XLVI of 199 on statistics, therefore the data contained in the tables and charts are not to be considered as official statistical data. Magyar Nemzeti Bank excludes all liability for any damage caused by the usage of the herein published non-official statistical data.

2 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates EUR/HUF exchange rate HUF HUF Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. 17 June Dec. 1 Jan. 9 Feb June 11 Aug. Nov. 1 Dec. Jan. 1 9 Mar. 1 June 1 Aug. 1 Nov. Dec. Feb. 11 Mar. 1 June Notes: reverse scale, hourly observations. EUR/HUF CHF/HUF USD/HUF. EUR/HUF exchange rate (last 1 month) HUF HUF June June June EUR/HUF (left-hand scale) CHF/HUF USD/HUF Notes: reverse scale. 1

3 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 11. Emerging markets exchange rates Jan. Feb. 11 Mar. 1 June Nov. 1 Dec. Jan. 9 Feb. 1 Mar. 9 June 1 1 Aug. 7 1 Dec. Jan. 1 9 Feb. 1 Mar. 9 June Aug Nov. 1 Dec. Jan Mar. 1 1 June 19 EUR/HUF EUR/PLN EUR/CZK EUR/RON Notes: January = ; cumulative change. Positive values mean appreciation.. Emerging markets exchange rates (last 1 month),, 1, 1, 1 1,, -, -1-1, - -, -, -1-1, - -, 7 June June June EUR/HUF EUR/PLN EUR/CZK EUR/RON Notes: cumulative change, -minute frequency. Positive values mean appreciation.

4 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 11. HUF vis-á-vis emerging market exchange rates Jan. Feb. 11 Mar. 1 June Nov. 1 Dec. Jan. 9 Feb. 1 Mar. 9 June 1 1 Aug. 7 1 Dec. Jan. 1 9 Feb. 1 Mar. 9 June Aug Nov. 1 Dec. Jan Mar. 1 1 June 19 CZK PLN RON ZAR TRY Notes: January = ; cumulative change. Positive values mean HUF appreciation.. HUF vis-á-vis emerging market exchange rates (last 1 month) June June June CZK PLN RON ZAR TRY Notes: cumulative change, -minute frequency. Positive values mean HUF appreciation.

5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates Implied and historical volatilities of the forint-euro exchange rate Jan. 9 9 Jan. Feb. Mar. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. 1 Nov. Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. 17 June 1 7 Nov. 7 Dec. Jan Feb. 1 Mar. Mar. June 1 Source: Bloomberg. 1 week (implied) 1 month (implied) backward-looking (GARCH) volatility (right-hand scale) Notes: GARCH is weighted volatility calculated using historical data; implied volatility (based on foreign exchange option quotes) can be interpreted as an indicator of risk perceived by the market.. Risk reversal and skewness of exchange rate expectations Jan. 9 1 Feb. Mar. 7 1 June 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Mar. 1 7 risk reversal skewness (right-hand scale) Source: Bloomberg. Notes: based on option quotes for 1-month D risk reversal; skewness=rr/volatility*1. Risk reversal can be regarded as a "nominal" indicator for the skewness of the distribution of exchange rate expectations, while skewness eliminates the effect of changes in volatility.

6 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates Implied HUF yields based on FX-swap market trades and quotes Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. Mar. 7 June 17 Aug Nov. 7 Dec. Jan Feb. Mar. Mar. 9 7 June Interest rate corridor months O/N T/N Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. Notes: implied forint yields based on USDHUF FX-swap trades in the case of O/N and T/N maturities, and based on USDHUF FX-swap quotes provided by Thomson Reuters in the cases of -month maturity. 1. Difference between interbank yields and implied yields based on FX-swap markets Jan. 9 Jan. 7 Feb. 7 Mar. 19 June 17 1 Aug Nov. Dec. 1 Jan. 1 9 Jan. Feb. Mar. 1 1 June Aug. 1 Aug. Nov. Dec. Jan Feb. 17 Mar June 7 Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. months months Notes: implied forint yields based on USDHUF FX-swap quotes provided by Thomson Reuters; interbank yields are estimated via spline method based on BUBOR, FRA, IRS data.

7 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates Implied month forward interest rate curves (based on government securities yields) 1. Implied month forward interest rate curve (based on interbank yields),,,,,,,, 7,7 7,7 7,7 7,7 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7,,7,7,7,7,,,,,,,,,,,,,7,7,7,7,, years later June ,, years later June Source: MNB, ÁKK. Notes: estimated by the MNB using the Svensson-technique. Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. Notes: estimated by the MNB from interbank money market (FRA) and interest rate swap quotes using the spline technique. 1. Spread between -month forward yields in EUR and HUF 1. The difference between the quoted rate of the month FRA and the current base rate év EUR ( 11) HUF ( 11) EUR (1 11) HUF (1 11) Forward differential ( 11) Forward differential (1 11) - 1 month months months June Source: ÁKK, ECB, MNB. Notes: estimated by the ECB using the Svensson-technique, based on AAA-rated euro area central government bonds. Notes: based on FRA quotes provided by Tulett & Tokio Liberty on Reuters. Columns represent the difference between the quoted rate of the month forward rate agreement starting from the given date and the base rate.

8 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates Policy rate expectations derived from money market rates 1. Policy rate expectations derived from government bond yields,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Jan. 1 9 Mar. 1 June 1 Dec. Feb Aug. 7 Nov. Jan Dec. Jan Mar. Aug. 11 Dec. Feb Dec. Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. June Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. June Notes: estimated by the MNB from interbank interest rates using the spline-technique. Notes: estimated by the MNB using the Svensson-technique. 17. MNB base rate and money market rates, 7, 7,,,,,,,, 7, 7,,,,,,, Jan. 1 1 Feb. 1 Mar. Mar. 7 June 19 Aug Nov. 1 Dec. 11 Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. June 1 O/N interbank Baserate (-week central bank bill) M BUBOR 1x FRA O/N central bank deposit O/N central bank loan Source: MNB, ÁKK, Thomson Reuters. Notes: O/N interbank yield is the calculated average yield weighted by turnover data, FRA yield is the close mid-quote provided by Thomson Reuters. 7

9 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates Short-term interbank yields 19. Short-term government securities - interbank yield spreads basis point basis point 11, 11, 1, 1, 1, 1, 9, 9, 9, 9, 1 1,,,, 1 1 7, 7, 7, 7,,,,,,, - -,,,, -1-1 Jan. 9 7 Feb. 7 June 1 Aug. 1 Dec. Feb. 1 Mar. 1 1 Nov. 11 Jan. 11 Jan. 9 Mar. 9 9 June Aug. 1 1 Dec. 1 Feb June 1 Aug. 7 Dec. Feb month 1 year month 1 year Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. Notes: swap yields are estimated via spline method based on BUBOR, FRA, IRS data. Source: ÁKK, Thomson Reuters. Notes: the bond yields are estimated via Svensson-, swap yields via spline method.. Long-term interbank yields 1. Long-term government security - interbank yield spreads 1, 1, 1, 9, 1, 9, 7 7 9,, 9,, ,, 1 1 7, 7, 7, 7, ,,,, - -,, - - Jan. 9 7 Feb. 7 June 1 Aug. 1 Dec. Feb. 1 Mar. 1 1 Nov. 11 Jan. 11 Mar. 1 Jan. 9 Mar. 9 9 June Aug. 1 1 Dec. 1 Feb June 1 Aug. 7 Dec. Feb Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. year 1 year Notes: swap yields are estimated via spline method based on BUBOR, FRA, IRS data. Source: ÁKK, Thomson Reuters. year 1 year Notes: the bond yields are estimated via Svensson-, swap yields via spline method.

10 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 11. Short-term yields of benchmark government securities. Long-term yields of benchmark government securities Jan. 9 Feb. Mar. 1 Mar. 9 9 June 7 Aug. Nov. 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. June 9 Aug. 1 9 Nov. 9 Dec. Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. 1 1 June 11 Jan. 9 Feb. Mar. 1 Mar. 9 9 June 7 Aug Nov. 17 Dec. Jan Feb. 1 Mar June 1 17 Aug. 1 Nov. 1 Dec. Jan Feb. 1 Mar. 1 June 1 M M 1M Y Y 1Y 1Y Source: ÁKK. Source: ÁKK. Notes: daily reference yields provided by Government Debt Agency. Notes: daily reference yields provided by Government Debt Agency.. Yields of benchmark government securities 7, 7, 7,,7,,,,7, 7, 7, 7,,7,,,,7, 7 June. June. 9 June. June Source: Thomson Reuters, FTSE. Notes: intraday 1-minute frequency data. M M 1Y Y Y 1Y 1Y 9

11 Financial Markets 11. Spot turnover on the forint currency market. Swap turnover on the forint currency market HUF bn HUF bn HUF bn HUF bn Jan. 9 Mar. 7 June 19 Aug. 1 1 Dec. 1 Feb June Aug. Nov. Jan. 11 Mar Jan. 9 Mar. 7 June 19 Aug. 1 1 Dec. 1 Feb June Aug. Nov. Jan. 11 Mar day MA -day MA -day MA -day MA Notes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data. Notes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data. 7. Forward turnover on the forint currency market. Option turnover on the forint currency market HUF bn HUF bn HUF bn HUF bn Jan. 9 Mar. 7 June 19 Aug. 1 1 Dec. 1 Feb June Aug. Nov. Jan. 11 Mar Jan. 9 Mar. 7 June 19 Aug. 1 1 Dec. 1 Feb June Aug. Nov. Jan. 11 Mar day MA -day MA -day MA -day MA Notes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data. Notes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data. 1

12 Financial Markets Net FRA position of non-residents and FRA-base rate spreads. Net Forint forward stock of residents and the exchange rate HUF bn HUF bn EUR/HUF Jan. 1 1 Feb. 1 Mar. 9 Mar. 1 June 19 1 Aug. 9 Nov. Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. 1 Mar June 1 Base rate - 1x FRA yield differential 1 Jan. 1 1 Feb. 1 Mar. Mar. 7 June Aug Nov. 17 Dec. 17 Jan Feb. 1 Mar June Base rate - x FRA yield differential net forward stock of residents net FRA position of foreigners (right-hand scale) exchange rate (right-hand scale, inverted scale) Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. Notes: based on FRA quotes provided by Tulett & Tokio Liberty on Reuters. Notes: Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions. Due to the nature of the banks' daily report on FX transactions, the components of the statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information contained in the data series is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and nonstandard transactions might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series. 1. Forint FX Swap stock of non-residents HUF billions HUF billions Jan. 1 1 Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Feb. Feb. 1 Mar. Mar June 1 June 1 1 Aug. 7 Aug. 1 Nov. 19 Nov. Dec. 17 Dec. 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Jan. 11 Feb. Feb. 11 Mar. Mar. June 17 June 1 1 HUF/FX - max 1W HUF/FX - 1W-M HUF/FX - M-1Y HUF/FX - min 1Y FX/HUF - max 1W FX/HUF - 1W-M FX/HUF - M-1Y FX/HUF - min 1Y Notes: due to the nature of the banks' daily report on FX transactions, the components of the FX transactions statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information contained in the data series on net forint purchase of non-resident investors - and its components - is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations. An increase in the swap stock stands for swaps with a long forint spot leg. Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions.calculated from swap transactions between credit institutions and non-resident investors. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and non-standard transactions might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series. 11

13 Financial Markets 11. Forint FX Swap stock of non-residents HUF billions HUF billions Jan. 1 1 Feb. 19 Mar. 7 June 1 1 Aug. Nov. 9 Dec. 17 Jan. 11 Feb June total net FX swap stock of foreigners cumulated HUF purchase of foreigners Notes: due to the nature of the banks' daily report on FX transactions, the components of the FX transactions statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information contained in the data series on net forint purchase of non-resident investors - and its components - is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations. An increase in the swap stock stands for swaps with a long forint spot leg. Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions.calculated from swap transactions between credit institutions and non-resident investors. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and non-standard transactions might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series.. Forint financial assets held by non-residents HUF billions HUF billions Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. 7 1 June 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 9 Feb. 17 Aug Nov. Dec. Feb. 1 Mar. 1 June 9 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Feb. Source: MNB, KELER. government securities central bank (two-week) bills equity Notes: January = ; cumulative change. Equity data are not comprehensive, it contains data for large- and mid-cap stocks quoted on the Budapest Stock Exchange. 1

14 Financial Markets 11. Government securities of non-residents by tenor HUF Bln HUF Bln June 1 1 June 9 June Aug. Aug. Nov. 1 Nov. Dec. 1 Dec. Dec. 1 Jan Jan. 1 Feb. Feb. 1 Mar. Mar. 9 June 1 June 19 Total amount Maturing before 1 Dec. 1 Maturing between 1 Jan. 1 and 1 Dec. 1 Maturing later than 1 Jan. 1 Auctions, redemptions Notes: 1 June 1 = ; cumulative change without central bank bills.. Government securities held by non-residents HUF bln HUF bln Jan. 1 Feb. 1 Mar June 1 1 Aug Nov. 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Feb. 11 Mar June T-Bill redemption T-Bond redemption T-Bill auction T-Bond auction Secondary market Total Notes: monthly change. The last month contains information on available data. 1

15 Financial Markets 11. Government securities held by non-residents and the proportion to the total amount outstanding 7. Government securities held by non-residents and the proportion to the total amount outstanding HUF bn HUF bn 7 7 Jan. 1 1 June Aug. Nov. Jan. 7 9 Mar. 1 1 Nov. Jan. Mar Nov. 1 Jan. 9 9 Mar. 1 Aug. 1 Dec. 1 Feb June Aug. Nov. Jan. Mar Nov. Dec. Jan Feb. 19 Mar June 1 stock (right-hand scale) percentage of total amount outstanding stock (right-hand scale) percentage of total amount outstanding Notes: MNB calculations excluding central bank bills. Notes: MNB calculations excluding central bank bills.. The average time to maturity of residents' and nonresidents' government security portfolio 9. The relative average time to maturity of residents' and non-residents' government security portfolio year year month month,, 1 1,, 1 1,,,, 1 1,, 9 9,,,,,,,,,, - -,, - - Jan. 9 1 Feb. Mar. 1 June Aug Dec. Jan. 1 9 Mar. June 1 Aug. 11 Nov. Jan Feb. Mar. 1 June Jan. 9 9 Feb. 1 Mar. 1 Aug. 1 1 Nov. Dec. Feb. 1 9 Mar. 1 June 11 1 Nov. Dec. Jan Mar June total non-residents residents non-residents residents Notes: MNB calculations including T-Bonds and T-Bills and excluding central bank (twoweek) bills. (two week) Notes: MNB calculations; including T-Bonds and T-Bills, and excluding central bank bills. 1

16 Financial Markets 11. The turnover and yield data of the Hungarian primary t-bill and t-bond issues HUF billions 17 month T-bill 1 month T-bill year T-bond year T-bond 1 year T-bond, , 7,,,,, June June 11 June June 11 June June 11 1 June Source: ÁKK. Announced (billion HUF) Total bid (billion HUF) Accepted (billion HUF) Max yield ( - rhs) Avg yield ( - rhs) Min yield ( - rhs) Notes: the turnover and yield data of the Hungarian primary t-bill and t-bond issues. In case of floating rate bonds the yield data are not be plotted. 1. Government securities issues, buybacks, redemptions HUF bn HUF bn Jan. 1 1 Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. Mar June June 9 Aug. 9 Aug Nov. 7 Dec. 7 Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Feb. Feb. 17 Mar. 1 June June 1 T-bond issuance Net T-bill issuance Bonds bought back Bonds matured Net change Source: ÁKK. 1

17 Financial Markets 11. Turnover on the forint unsecured interbank market. Turnover on the forint FRA market HUF bn HUF bn HUF bn HUF bn Jan. 9 Feb. Mar. 1 June 1 1 Nov. Dec. 9 Jan. 1 1 Mar. 1 Mar. 1 June June 9 Aug. 7 Nov. 7 Dec. Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. June Feb. 9 9 Mar. 7 June 7 Aug. Nov. Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. June Aug. 1 Nov. 1 Dec. Dec. Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. 9 9 June -day moving averages -day moving averages -day moving averages -day moving averages Notes: deal dates, based on reporting by domestic banks; central moving averages. Notes: deal dates, based on reporting by domestic banks; central moving averages.. Turnover on the secondary market of government securities HUF bln HUF bln Jan 9 Feb 7 Mar 9 June 1 1 Aug Sep 9 Oct Dec 11 Jan 1 1 Feb Mar Apr June 1 Aug 17 Sep Oct 9 Nov Jan 11 7 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 9 June less than 1 year 1 to years to years more than years Source: KELER Notes: 1-day moving averages. 1

18 International and Regional Environment 11. ECB policy rate expectations,7,,, 1,7 1, 1, 1,,7,,,,7,,, 1,7 1, 1, 1,,7,,, Jan Mar. 1 June 1 Aug. 11 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 7 Mar Nov. 1 June Source: ECB. Fed policy rate expectations 1, 1, 1, 1,,7,7,,,,,, 1 Jan. 11 Mar. 9 7 June Aug. Dec. 1 Feb June 1 Aug. Notes: derived from Fed funds futures contracts. June

19 International and Regional Environment Policy rates of the ECB, Fed, Swiss National Bank and the -month money market interest rates.,,,,,, 1, 1, 1, 1,,,,, 1 Jan. 9 Feb. 1 Mar. 1 1 June 1 Nov. 17 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. 1 1 June Nov. 7 Dec. 1 Jan Mar June ECB EUR yield SNB CHF yield Fed funds target rate USD yield. month interbank and treasury yield spreads Jan. 9 Feb. 1 Mar. 1 1 June 1 Nov. 17 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. 1 1 June Aug. 1 1 Nov. 1 Dec. Jan Mar. 1 1 June 19 euro -day MA dollar -day MA 1

20 International and Regional Environment month LIBOR - OIS spreads Jan. 9 Feb. 1 Mar. 1 1 June 1 Nov. 17 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. 1 1 June 1 19 Aug. Dec. Jan Feb. 17 Mar. 1 June EUR USD GBP. Long-term EUR and USD benchmark yields,,,,,,,,,, 1 Jan. 9 1 Feb. Mar. 7 1 June 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. 1 1 Aug. Nov. Dec. 1 Jan Mar. June 1 1-year EUR 1-year USD Notes: based on benchmark yield data provided by Thomson Reuters. 19

21 International and Regional Environment Major currencies versus the dollar Jan. 9 9 Jan. Feb. Mar. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. 1 Nov. Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. 17 June 1 1 Aug. 9 7 Nov. Dec. Dec. 7 Jan. 11 Feb. Mar June 1 USD/EUR USD/GBP USD/CHF USD/JPY Notes: 1 January 9 = ; cumulative change. Positive values indicate USD appreciation.. Commodity benchmarks USD/barrel; index values USD/ounce Jan. 9 9 Jan. Feb. Mar. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. 1 Nov. Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. 17 June 1 1 Aug. 9 7 Nov. Dec. Jan Jan. Feb. Mar. June 1 Brent crude oil (USD/barrel) S&P GSCI agricultural and livestock index* S&P GSCI main index* Gold bullion (USD/troy ounce, right-hand scale) Notes: Brent crude oil and gold buillon: nominal values, *Standard&Poor's Goldman Sachs Commodity index: 1 January 9=1.

22 International and Regional Environment 11. Developed market stock indices Jan. 9 Feb. Mar. Mar. 9 7 June 19 Aug Nov. 9 Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. 1 June 9 June 7 Aug Nov. 7 Dec. Jan Feb. 1 Mar June 1 Notes: January 9 = ; cumulative change. DJ STOXX S&P FTSE 1 NIKKEI. Emerging market stock indices Jan. 9 9 Feb. 9 Mar. June 1 Aug. 7 Nov. Dec. Jan Feb. Mar. 1 1 June 1 11 Aug. 9 7 Nov. 1 Dec. 1 Jan Feb. 11 Mar June 7 BUX (Hungary) PX (Czech Rep.) WIG (Poland) Shanghai Composite RTS (Russia; right-hand scale) Notes: 1 January 9 = ; cumulative change. 1

23 International and Regional Environment 11. Major risk aversion indicators /Jan/9 9/Jan /Feb /Mar /Apr 1/ 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Aug 1/Sep /Oct /Nov /Dec 1/Dec /Jan/1 /Feb /Mar /Apr / 17/Jun 1/Jul 1/Aug 9/Sep 7/Oct /Nov /Dec /Dec 7/Jan/11 /Feb /Mar 1/Apr 19/ 1/Jun 1/Jul Source: Thomson Reuters; JP Morgan. VIX index EUR/USD 1 month implied volatility EMBI Global (right-hand scale) Notes: increases indicate declining risk appetite or increasing risk aversion. VIX is the implied volatility of S&P index.. Key CDS composite indices Jan. 9 9 Jan. Feb. Mar. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. 1 Nov. Dec. 1 Jan. 1 9 Jan. Feb. Mar. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. 1 Nov. Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. 17 June 1 itraxx Europe itraxx Europe HiVol CDX investment grade itraxx Crossover CDX high yield (right-hand scale) Notes: itraxx Europe index is composed of the most liquid 1 CDS referencing European investment grade names. itraxx HiVol is a subset of the main index consisting of the most risky constituents. Crossover index comprises the most liquid sub-investment grade entities. CDX North American Investment Grade index consists of 1 names, CDX North American High Yield index comprises 1 names.

24 International and Regional Environment year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging markets June 1 Aug. 17 Nov. 9 Dec. 9 Feb. 9 Mar. 1 June Nov. 11 Jan. 1 Feb. 17 June 9 Aug. 1 Nov. 1 Dec. Jan Mar Hungary Romania Bulgaria Croatia CEEMEA SovX Notes: CEEMEA is a composite index calculated from the 1 most liquid sovereign CDS-speads in the CEEMEA region.. year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging markets (last months) Mar June 1 June June 1 Hungary Romania Bulgaria Croatia CEEMEA SovX Notes: CEEMEA is a composite index calculated from the 1 most liquid sovereign CDS-speads in the CEEMEA region.

25 International and Regional Environment year sovereign CDS spreads in peripherial eurozone countries June 1 Aug. 17 Nov. 9 Dec. 9 Feb. 9 Mar. 1 June Nov. 11 Jan. 1 Feb. 17 June 9 Aug. 1 Nov. 1 Dec. Jan Mar Portugal Spain Italy Ireland CEEMEA SovX Greece (right-hand scale) CEEMEA is a composite index calculated from the 1 most liquid sovereign CDS-speads in the CEEMEA region.. year sovereign CDS spreads in peripherial eurozone countries (last months) Nov. 19 Nov. Dec. 17 Dec. 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Jan. 11 Feb. Feb. 11 Mar. Mar. June 17 June Portugal Spain Italy Ireland CEEMEA SovX Greece (right-hand scale) CEEMEA is a composite index calculated from the 1 most liquid sovereign CDS-speads in the CEEMEA region.

26 International and Regional Environment year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging European countries. year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging European countries (last months) June 1 Aug. 17 Nov. 9 Dec. 9 Feb. 9 Mar. 1 June Nov. 11 Jan. 1 Feb. 17 June 9 Aug. 1 Nov. 1 Dec. Jan Mar Mar June 1 June June 1 Poland Czech Republic Russia Poland Czech Republic Russia Turkey Estonia Turkey Estonia. Emerging market sovereign foreign currency bond spreads Jan. 9 Feb. 1 June 1 Aug. Dec. Jan. 1 Mar. 1 9 Nov. Dec. Feb June Hungary all emerging Latin America CEE Asia Notes: calculated from JP Morgan Euro EMBI data. The series are differences between euro denominated (liquid) foreign currency bond yields and euro zero coupon yields of the corresponding maturities.

27 International and Regional Environment 11 bázispont Policy rates and -month interbank deposit rates in CEE countries bázispont jan.. jan.. febr.7. márc.7. ápr.. máj.. jún.19. júl.17. aug.1. szept.11. okt.9. nov.. dec.. 1.jan.1. jan.9. febr.. márc.. ápr.. máj.1. jún.1. júl.1. aug.1. szept.1. okt.. nov.. dec.. dec jan.. febr.. márc.. ápr.. máj.. jún.17. júl.1. Forint Cseh korona Zloty Notes: interbank deposit rates based on Reuters quotes month interbank deposit rates in some Central European and Baltic counties Jan Jan. Feb. Feb. 1 Mar June 19 Aug Nov. 9 Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 1 1 Feb. 9 Mar. 1 Mar. 1 7 June 9 June 1 1 Aug Nov. Dec. Dec. 17 Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. Mar June 1 Lithuania Latvia Bulgaria Ukraine (right-hand scale) Notes: -day moving averages.

28 International and Regional Environment 11. Spreads of -year Eastern European foreign currency bond yields over benchmarks 7. Spreads of Eastern European foreign currency bond yields over benchmarks Jan. 1 1 Feb. 9 Mar. 1 1 June 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Feb. 1 9 June Jan. 1 1 Feb. 9 Mar. 1 1 June 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Feb. 1 9 June Hungary (1//1) Poland (1/Feb./1) Czech Republic (/June/1) Romania (1/Mar./1) Croatia (1//1) Latvia (//1) Lithuania (1/Feb./1) Ukraine (1//1 - right-hand scale) Notes: spreads of -year Eastern European foreign currency bond yields over the appropriate German benchmark yields. Notes: spreads of -year Eastern European foreign currency bond yields over the appropriate German benchmark yields.. Benchmark yield curves of Hungary, Poland, Ireland and Germany m m 1y y y y y y 7y y 9y 1y 11y 1y 1y 1y 1y 1y 17y 1y 19y y y Hungary 11 Poland 11 Ireland 11 Germany 11 Hungary Jun 11 Poland Jun 11 Ireland Jun 11 Germany Jun

29 International and Regional Environment Spreads over year euro spot zero coupon yields Jan. 9 Jan. 7 Feb. 7 Mar. 19 June 17 1 Aug Nov. Dec. 1 Jan. 1 9 Jan. Feb. Mar. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. 1 Nov. Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. 17 June 1 HUF CZK PLN Notes: zero-coupon yields provided by Reuters. 7. year implied spreads over euro rates in year's time Jan. 9 Feb. 1 Mar. 17 June Nov. 1 Dec. Jan. 1 Feb June 1 Aug. 9 Dec. 7 Jan Feb. 1 Mar. 7 1 HUF CZK PLN Notes: based on swap rates provided by Reuters.

30 Liquidity Position of the Banking Sector Developments in central bank balance sheet HUF billions HUF billions Jan. 9 1 Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. Mar June June 9 Aug. 9 Aug Nov. 7 Dec. 7 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. Feb. 17 Mar. 1 June June 1 Aug. Aug. 1 1 Nov. Dec. Dec. 11 Jan Jan. Feb. 1 Mar June 1 reserve balances net stock of O/N instruments central bank bill FX-swap instruments two-week loan six-month loan total HUF liquidity 7. Recourse to central bank instruments HUF billions HUF billions June 11 June June 7 June 9 June 11 June 1 June 1 June 17 June 19 June 1 June June June 7 June 9 June net stock of O/N instruments FX-swap instruments six-month loan two-week loan 9

31 Inflation The CPI and the Core CPI Developments in underlying inflation indicators Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan Jan/ Sep Jan/ Sep Jan/ Sep Jan/ Sep Jan/ Sep Jan/7 Sep Jan/ Sep Jan/9 Sep Jan/1 Sep Jan/11 Range of underlying inflation indicators - Core Consumer Price Index Consumer Price Index Core inflation excluding indirect tax changes Source: HCSO, MNB Source: HCSO, MNB. Notes: seasonally adjusted year-on-year growth rates (HCSO adjustments); The time series of core inflation have changed due to the change in the calculation method. Notes: The range is constructed of the median, weighted median, trimmed mean and Edgeworth-index indicators. Weight - 11 Mar-11 Apr Jun-11 Consumer Price Index 1,,,7,9, thereof 7. Decomposition of the Consumer Price Index Unprocessed food,9 1,7 1, 9, 1, Processed food 11, 9, 1, 1, 11, Manufactured goods,,,7 1, 1, Market services 1,9,,,1, Non-regulated household energy, 9, 1,, 9, Alcohol, tobacco 9,7, -, -1, -,9 Gasoline prices, 1,9 1, 1, 1,1 Regulated prices 17,,,,, Core Consumer Price Index,7,,7,7, CPI without Tax Changes 1,,,,9, Source: HCSO, MNB decomposition Notes: annual growth rates (); The time series of industrial products, market services, regulated prices have changed because the method of the core inflation developed by the CSO and the NBH has broken down several items (like pharmaceutical products, the telephone, the other travels, the TV fee) from 9.

32 Inflation 11 HUF/EUR 7. The HUF/EUR exchange rate and the analysts' expectations HUF/EUR Jan. Mar. 1 June 1 Dec. Feb. 9 1 Aug. Nov. 7 Jan Dec. Mar June 7 Nov. Feb. 1 1 MNB technical assumption in the latest QRI Mean of analysts' expectations Source: Thomson Reuters, MNB. Notes: inverted scale, projected band with a central exchange rate taken to be fixed at 7,1 from October 1 1, and at, from June. The thin continuous line represents analysts' average exchange rate expectations according to the most recent Reuters CEE FX Poll. The bold line stands for the MNB's technical exchange rate assumption underlying the the latest inflation forecast published in the most recent Quarterly Report on Inflation. USD/barrel The Brent crude oil price and market expectations USD/barrel Jan Jan. Feb. 1 June 1 Feb. 9 June Jan. 7 1 Jan Jan Jan. 1 7 Jan Dec. 7 Mar. 1 June Dec. Historical Analysts' expectations* Futures** MNB technical assumption*** Source: Bloomberg, Consensus Economics. Notes: Consensus Economics Forecast (latest survey); the original forecasts refer to the WTI crude oil, and were corrected by the average difference between WTI and Brent to derive figures for the Brent crude oil; ** Based on the latest available futures prices ***Technical assumption underlying the MNB's inflation forecast published in the most recent Quarterly Report on Inflation. 1

33 Inflation Monetary conditions Jan. Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan year real interest rate* (left-hand scale) CPI-based real exchange rate** (right-hand scale) Source: Reuters, KSH, Eurostat, ÁKK, MNB. Notes: * calculated from the 1-year zero-coupon yield and analysts' corresponding 1-year forward inflation expectations derived from the Reuters-poll by the MNB. ** Monthly depreciation of the forint relative to the euro (until April 1 the pre-announced rate of devaluation), adjusted by the corresponding Hungarian CPI and the EMU's HICP (1 January 1997 = 1; increase represents appreciation) Fan chart of the inflation forecast Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 1 Q1 1 Q1 Source: MNB, HCSO. Notes: the fan chart represents the uncertainty around the central projection. Overall, the coloured area represents a 9 per cent probability. The central area containing the central projection for the consumer price index illustrated by the dotted line (as the mode of distribution) refers to per cent of the probability. The horizontal line shows the value of the announced inflation target.

34 Inflation 11. Analysts' expectations for the inflation rate in 11,,,,,,,, 1, 1,,,,,,,,, 1, 1, Jan. 9 Feb. Mar. June Aug. Nov. Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. June Aug. Nov. Dec. Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. June Notes: the thin continuous line represents the trimmed mean calculated by cutting off the lowest and the highest value. The flat line indicates the medium-term inflation target. 1. Analysts' expectations for the inflation rate in 1,,,,,,,, 1, 1,,,,,,,,, 1, 1, Jan. 1 Feb. Mar. June Aug. Nov. Dec. Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. June Notes: the thin continuous line represents the trimmed mean calculated by cutting off the lowest and the highest value. The flat line indicates the medium-term inflation target.

35 Inflation 11. The latest central projection of the MNB compared to other prognoses Consumer Price Index (annual average growth rate, ) MNB (June 11),9, - Consensus Economics (June 11) European Commission ( 11),, - IMF (June 11),1, - OECD ( 11),, - Reuters survey ( 11) GDP (annual growth rate, ) MNB (June 11),, - Consensus Economics (June 11) European Commission ( 11),7, - IMF (June 11),, - OECD ( 11),7,1 - Reuters survey ( 11) Current account balance (percent of GDP) MNB (June 11) 1,9, - European Commission ( 11) 1, 1,9 - IMF (June 11) 1,7 1, - OECD ( 11),7 1, - Budget deficit (ESA-9 method, percent of GDP) MNB (June 11) -., - Consensus Economics (June 11) * European Commission ( 11) -1., - IMF (June 11) -., - OECD ( 11) -., - Reuters survey ( 11) 1 (-.) - (-.) - (-.7) Forecasts on the size of Hungary's export markets (annual growth rate, )** MNB (June 11) 7,, - European Commission ( 11),, - IMF (April 11),,1, OECD ( 11) 7,, - Forecasts on the GDP growth rate of Hungary's trade partners (annual growth rate, )** MNB (June 11),, - European Commission ( 11),, - IMF (April 11),,7,7 OECD ( 11),, - 1 In addition to the averages of polled analysts responses (the values in the middle), the smallest and largest values are also indicated for the Reuters and Consensus Economics surveys in order to illustrate distribution. MNB calculations. The projections of the named institutions for trade partners are aggregated with the weights used in MNB s own external demand indicators. Some institutions do not publish forecasts for all trade partners. * Excluding transfers from private pension funds. ** Trade weights used for the calculation of external demand were updated in June 11. Thus, the data in this table are not directly comparable with the respective figures in previous tables. Sources: Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (Consensus Economics Inc. (London), 11); European Commission Economic Forecast ( 11); IMF World Economic Outlook Database (April 11) IMF Public Information Notice (PIN) No. 11/7 (June 1, 11); Reuters survey ( 11); OECD Economic Outlook No.9 ( 11).

36 External Balance 11. Net financing capacity of the household sector Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 Net lending Net lending without pension fund's transfer Assets Assets without pension fund's transfer Liabilities Seasonally adjusted, as a percentage of GDP. Time series data displayed above are seasonally adjusted using direct alignment methodology therefore the difference of assets and liabilities is not necessarily equal to the seasonally adjusted value of net savings. In the first quater of 11 separate data points show households net lending and assets excluding the effect of the capital transfer due to withdrawals from private pension funds. Net lending including the effect of the capital transfer is percent of GDP.. Net financing capacity of the non-monetary corporate sector Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Notes: seasonally adjusted; as a percentage of GDP. net financing capacity liabilities assets

37 External Balance 11. Net borrowing of the household sector HUF billions HUF billions Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 Consumption and other loans Mortgages (in HUF) Mortgages (in foreign currency) Total amount of loans Notes: monthly change, seasonally adjusted data.. Change in export and import volumes (goods and services) Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 Export Import Notes: annual growth rate.

38 Domestic Business Cycle Annual GDP growth rate. Quarterly GDP growth rate,, 1, 1, 1, 1,,,,, -, -1, -, -1, , -1, - - -, -, - - -, -, -, -, - - -, -, Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 Source: HCSO. Source: HCSO. Notes: annual growth rate. Notes: seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rate. 9. Fan chart of the GDP forecast Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 1 Q1 1 Q1 Source: MNB, HCSO. Notes: the fan chart represents the uncertainty around the central projection. Overall, the coloured area represents a 9 per cent probability. The central area containing the central projection for the GDP illustrated by the dotted line (as the mode of distribution) refers to per cent of the probability. 7

39 Domestic Business Cycle New dwelling trends 91. Developments in home prices Q1 199 Q Q1 199 Q Q1 Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 Constructed dwellings (seasonally adjusted) Issued construction permits (seasonally adjusted) Real home prices (Origo database) FHB home price index Source: HCSO. Notes: year-on-year volume indices of trend-estimates. Source: Origo, FHN. Notes: year-on-year indices of trend-estimates; CPI deflated. 9. Household consumption and the accumulation of gross fixed assets Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 Household consumption Gross fixed capital formation Source: HCSO. Notes: annual growth rates.

40 Domestic Business Cycle Industrial production and the output of the manufacturing sector Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 Industrial production Manufacturing sector Source: HCSO. Notes: year-on-year volume indices of seasonally adjusted data. 9. New orders in selected branches of the manufacturing sector Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 New domestic orders New export orders Source: HCSO, MNB. Notes: year-on-year volume indices of seasonally adjusted data. 9

41 Domestic Business Cycle GKI household confidence index (reweighted) 9. Quarterly growth rates of automobile sales level level Source: GKI. Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1-7 - Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 Automobile sales Source: Association of Hungarian Motor Vehicle Importers. month moving average - Notes: the re-weighted consumer confidence index takes into account those subindices of the GKI survey which are the most highly correlated with the time series of household consumption expenditure. (For more details see: MNB Background Studies 1/) 97. Total volume of retail trade Jan. Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 Total retail sales -month central moving average Source: HCSO. Notes: seasonally adjusted annualised monthly growth rates. The data of total retail sales contain beyond the narrow retail sales the turnover of motor vehicles and automotive fuel as well.

42 Domestic Business Cycle Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions in corporate sector H 9 Q Q Q1 11 (forecast) H H1 H H1 H 7 H1 7 H H1 H 9 Q Q Q1 11 (forecast) H H1 H H1 H 7 H1 7 H H1 H 9 Q Q Q1 11 (forecast) Large and medium-sized enterprises Small and micro-sized enterprises Commercial real estate loans Notes: creditworthiness standards and credit conditions estimated by lending officers. Negative value indicates easing, positive indicates tightening compared to the last quarter (before 9 to previous half a year). 99. Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions in corporate sector H H1 H H1 H H1 H H1 H 7 H1 7 H H1 H 9 Q Q Q1 11 (forecast) Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions - housing loan Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions - consumer loan Notes: creditworthiness standards and credit conditions estimated by lending officers. Negative value indicates easing, positive indicates tightening compared to the last quarter (before 9 to previous half a year). 1

43 Labour Market Wage growth in the manufacturing sector Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. 7 Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. 9 Mar. Nov. Jan. 1 Mar. Nov. Jan. 11 Mar. Average gross wage ex-bonus payments Average gross wage Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by NBH Notes: annual growth rates. 11. Wage growth in the market service sector Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. 7 Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. 9 Mar. Nov. Jan. 1 Mar. Nov. Jan. 11 Mar. Average gross wage ex-bonus payments Average gross wage Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by NBH. Notes: annual growth rates.

44 Labour Market Wage growth in the private sector 1. Unit labour cost in the private sector Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 Average gross wage ex-bonus payments Average gross wage - -1 Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by NBH. Notes: annual growth rates. Source: HCSO. Notes: seasonally adjusted, annualised quarterly growth rates. 1. Activity and unemployment thousand persons thousand persons Jan. 199 Jan Jan. Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 Source: HCSO. Notes: levels, seasonally adjusted. number of employed economically active unemployed (right-hand scale)

45 International and Regional Environment year government benchmark yields in CEE countries 1. Budget deficit in the CEE countries Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Dec. Feb. 1 Aug. Nov. Feb. 1 1 Hungary Poland Czech Republic Maastricht reference value Hungary (1-month average) Hungary Poland Czech Republic Source: Eurostat. Source: Consensus Economics 11). Notes: as a percentage of GDP. In the case of Poland and the Czech Republic privatisation revenues are not included. 17. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 Hungary Poland Czech Republic Maastricht reference value Hungary (1-month average) Source: Eurostat Notes: annual growth rate.

46 International and Regional Environment GDP growth rate in CEE Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovakia Source: Eurostat. Notes: same period of previous year = 1; seasonally adjusted data. 19. External financing capacity in the CEE countries Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 Source: Eurostat, MNB, CNB, NBP. Notes: seasonally adjusted, as a percentage of GDP. Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovakia

47 International and Regional Environment Business climate indices in the EMU 111. The annual growth rate of the volume of imported goods and services 11,, 11,, 11, 17, 1, 1, 1, 97,, 1, 1,,, , 9, -, -1, 9, 7,,,, 77, -1, -, -, -, -, , Jan. Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 -, - Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 - IFO Source: IFO; European Committee. EABCI (right-hand scale) Eurozone United States Japan Notes: IFO: Business Climate Index of the German Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Average of year = 1); EABCI: Business Climate Index of the European Committee (deviations from the long-run average), seasonally adjusted. Notes: seasonally adjusted data. 11. GDP growth rate in the EMU, US and Japan,,, 1, 1,,, -, -1, -1, -, -, -, -, -, -, -, -,,,, 1, 1,,, -, -1, -1, -, -, -, -, -, -, -, -, Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 EMU USA Japan Source: EUROSTAT. Notes: seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rates

48 Real Exchange Rates ULC based real effective exchange rate of the HUF Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 7 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 Source: HCSO. Notes: average of year = CPI and PPI based real effective exchange rates of the HUF Jan. 199 Jan Jan. Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 CPI based PPI based Source: HCSO, MNB, ECB Notes: average of year = 1. 7

49 Monetary aggregates Real growth rate of monetary aggregates (year-on-year basis) Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 M1 M M 11. Real growth rate of monetary aggregates (annualized from quarterly rates) Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 7 Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 M1 M M