Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments

Transcription

1 The central bank of Hungary Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments January 11 As of the th of June, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) publishes a comprehensive chart-pack about the latest information in financial markets and the macro-economy. Our aim is to provide analysts and the public with a frequently updated, easy-to-use, clear-cut data set, in order to promote better knowledge and understanding of the current economic and financial market situation. The updated chart-pack is published on the day of each rate-setting meeting at pm. Questions and comments are welcome, and should be addressed to info@mnb.hu. The data sources of this document, in whole or in part, do not fall within the scope of Act XLVI of 199 on statistics, therefore the data contained in the tables and charts are not to be considered as official statistical data. Magyar Nemzeti Bank excludes all liability for any damage caused by the usage of the herein published non-official statistical data.

2 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 1 January EUR/HUF exchange rate HUF HUF Jan. 1 Feb. 1 June Dec. 1 Jan. 9 Feb. 19 June 11 Aug. 1 Dec. Jan June 1 Aug. 1 Dec. EUR/HUF CHF/HUF USD/HUF Notes: reverse scale, hourly observations.. EUR/HUF exchange rate (last 1 month) HUF HUF Dec. 1 Dec. Dec. Dec. 9 Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 11 Jan. Jan. 11 Jan. 1 Jan. 1 Jan. 1 Jan. 19 Jan. Notes: reverse scale, hourly observations. EUR/HUF (left-hand scale) CHF/HUF USD/HUF 1

3 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 1 January 11. Emerging markets exchange rates Jan. Jan. 1 Feb. 1 1 June 9 19 Aug Dec. Dec. 1 Jan. 9 Feb. Feb June June 1 11 Aug Dec. Jan. 1 Jan. 1 Feb June June 1 Aug. Aug. 1 1 Dec. Dec. 1 Jan. 11 EUR/HUF EUR/PLN EUR/CZK EUR/RON Notes: January = ; cumulative change. Positive values mean appreciation.. Emerging markets exchange rates (last 1 month) Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. 9 Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 11 Jan. Jan. 11 Jan. 1 Jan. 1 Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. EUR/HUF EUR/PLN EUR/CZK EUR/RON Notes: cumulative change, -minute frequency. Positive values mean appreciation.

4 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 1 January 11. HUF vis-á-vis emerging market exchange rates Jan. Jan. 1 Feb. 1 1 June 9 19 Aug Dec. Dec. 1 Jan. 9 Feb. Feb June June 1 11 Aug Dec. Jan. 1 Jan. 1 Feb June June 1 Aug. Aug. 1 1 Dec. Dec. 1 Jan. 11 CZK PLN RON ZAR TRY Notes: January = ; cumulative change. Positive values mean HUF appreciation.. HUF vis-á-vis emerging market exchange rates (last 1 month) Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. 9 Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 11 Jan. Jan. 11 Jan. 1 Jan. 1 Jan. 1 Jan. 19 Jan. CZK PLN RON ZAR TRY Notes: cumulative change, -minute frequency. Positive values mean HUF appreciation.

5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 1 January 11. Implied and historical volatilities of the forint-euro exchange rate Jan. 9 9 Jan. Feb. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. 1 Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. 1 June 1 Dec. Jan week (implied) 1 month (implied) backward-looking (GARCH) volatility (right-hand scale) Source: Bloomberg. Notes: GARCH is weighted volatility calculated using historical data; implied volatility (based on foreign exchange option quotes) can be interpreted as an indicator of risk perceived by the market.. Risk reversal and skewness of exchange rate expectations Jan. 1 Feb. 1 June Dec. 1 Jan. 9 Feb. 1 1 Aug. 1 Dec. Jan June 9 Dec. risk reversal skewness (right-hand scale) Source: Bloomberg. Notes: based on option quotes for 1-month D risk reversal; skewness=rr/volatility*1. Risk reversal can be regarded as a "nominal" indicator for the skewness of the distribution of exchange rate expectations, while skewness eliminates the effect of changes in volatility.

6 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 1 January Implied HUF yields based on FX-swap market trades and quotes Jan. Jan. Feb. June 1 1 Aug Dec. 1 Jan Feb. 11 June Aug Dec. 1 Jan Feb. 11 June 1 9 Aug Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. Interest rate corridor month O/N Notes: implied forint yields based on USDHUF FX-swap trades in the case of O/N maturity, and based on USDHUF FX-swap quotes provided by Thomson Reuters in the cases of -month and -month maturities. 1. Difference between interbank yields and implied yields based on FX-swap markets Jan. 9 Feb. June 1 1 Aug Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. 1 June 1 1 Aug Dec. Jan. 11 Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. months months Notes: implied forint yields based on USDHUF FX-swap quotes provided by Thomson Reuters; interbank yields are estimated via spline method based on BUBOR, FRA, IRS data.

7 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 1 January Implied month forward interest rate curves (based on government securities yields) 1. Implied month forward interest rate curve (based on interbank yields),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1 9 years later 1 9 years later 1 December 1 1 January January 11 December 1 1 January January 11 Source: MNB, ÁKK. Notes: estimated by the MNB using the Svensson-technique. Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. Notes: estimated by the MNB from interbank money market (FRA) and interest rate swap quotes using the spline technique. 1. Spread between -month forward yields in EUR and HUF 1. The difference between the quoted rate of the month FRA and the current base rate év EUR (19 Jan. 11) HUF (19 Jan. 11) EUR (1 Jan. 11) HUF (1 Jan. 11) Forward differential (19 Jan. 11) - - Forward differential (1 Jan. 11) Dec. 1 1 Jan. 11 Jan. 11 Source: ÁKK, ECB, MNB. estimated by the ECB using the Svensson-technique, based on AAA-rated euro area central government bonds. Notes: based on FRA quotes provided by Tulett & Tokio Liberty on Reuters. Columns represent the difference between the quoted rate of the month forward rate agreement starting from the given date and the base rate.

8 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 1 January Policy rate expectations derived from money market rates 1. Policy rate expectations derived from government bond yields,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Jan June 1 Dec. Feb Aug. Jan Dec. 1 Jan Dec. Feb Dec. 1 Feb. 1 9 June 1 December 1 1 January January 11 Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. Notes: estimated by the MNB from interbank interest rates using the spline-technique. December 1 1 January January 11 Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. Notes: estimated by the MNB using the Svensson-technique. 1. MNB base rate and money market rates Jan. Jan. 11 Feb June June 9 Aug. 9 Aug. 1 1 Dec. Dec. 1 Jan. 9 Feb. Feb. 1 1 June June 1 Aug. Aug. 1 1 Dec. Dec. 11 Jan. 1 1 Jan. 1 Feb June 1 19 Aug. 1 1 Dec. Jan. 11 O/N interbank week central bank deposit month BUBOR 1x FRA O/N central bank deposit O/N central bank loan Source: MNB, ÁKK, Thomson Reuters. Notes: O/N interbank yield is the calculated average yield weighted by turnover data, FRA yield is the close mid-quote provided by Thomson Reuters.

9 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 1 January Short-term interbank yields 19. Short-term government securities - interbank yield spreads basis point basis point 11, 11, 1, 1, 1, 1, 9, 9, 1 1 9,, 9,, 1 1,,,,,,,, - -,,,, -1-1,, -1-1,, - - Jan. 9 Feb. June 1 Aug. 1 Dec. Feb Jan. 11 Jan June Aug. 1 1 Dec. 1 Feb June 1 Aug. Dec. month 1 year month 1 year Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. Notes: swap yields are estimated via spline method based on BUBOR, FRA, IRS data. Source: ÁKK, Thomson Reuters. Notes: the bond yields are estimated via Svensson-, swap yields via spline method.. Long-term interbank yields 1. Long-term government security - interbank yield spreads 1, 1, 1, 9, 1, 9, 9,, 9,, ,, 1 1,,,, 1 1,,,, - -,, - - Jan. 9 June Aug Dec. 1 Feb June 9 Aug. Dec. Jan June Aug. 1 1 Dec. 1 Feb June 1 Aug. Dec. Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. year 1 year Notes: swap yields are estimated via spline method based on BUBOR, FRA, IRS data. Source: ÁKK, Thomson Reuters. year 1 year Notes: the bond yields are estimated via Svensson-, swap yields via spline method.

10 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 1 January 11. Short-term yields of benchmark government securities. Long-term yields of benchmark government securities Jan. 9 Feb June Aug. 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. June 9 Aug Dec. Jan. 9 Feb June Aug Dec. Jan. 1 1 Feb June 1 1 Aug. 1 1 Dec. Jan. 11 Source: ÁKK. M M 1M Notes: daily reference yields provided by Government Debt Agency. Source: ÁKK. Y Y 1Y 1Y Notes: daily reference yields provided by Government Debt Agency.. Yields of benchmark government securities,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1 Dec 1. Dec 1. Dec 1. Jan 1. 1 Jan 1. 1 Jan 1. Jan. Source: Thomson Reuters, FTSE. Notes: intraday 1-minute frequency data. M M 1Y Y Y 1Y 1Y 9

11 Financial Markets 1 January 11. Spot turnover on the forint currency market. Swap turnover on the forint currency market HUF bn HUF bn HUF bn HUF bn Jan. 9 June 19 Aug. 1 1 Dec. 1 Feb. 1 9 June Aug. Jan. 9 June 19 Aug. 1 1 Dec. 1 Feb. 1 9 June Aug. -day MA -day MA -day MA -day MA Notes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data. Notes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data.. Forward turnover on the forint currency market. Option turnover on the forint currency market HUF bn HUF bn HUF bn HUF bn Jan. 9 June 19 Aug. 1 1 Dec. 1 Feb. 1 9 June Aug. Jan. 9 June 19 Aug. 1 1 Dec. 1 Feb. 1 9 June Aug. -day MA -day MA -day MA -day MA Notes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data. Notes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data. 1

12 Financial Markets 1 January Net FRA position of non-residents and FRA-base rate spreads Jan. 9 Feb. June 1 9 Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. 1 1 June Aug. Dec. Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. Base rate - 1x FRA yield differential Base rate - x FRA yield differential net FRA position of foreigners (right-hand scale) Notes: based on FRA quotes provided by Tulett & Tokio Liberty on Reuters. HUF bn Net Forint forward stock of residents and the exchange rate HUF bn Jan. 9 Feb. June Aug Dec. 1 Jan. 1 1 Feb June Aug. 9 Dec. Jan. 11 net forward stock of residents exchange rate (right-hand scale, inverted scale) EUR/HUF 9 1 Notes: Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions. Due to the nature of the banks' daily report on FX transactions, the components of the statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information contained in the data series is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and non-standard transactions might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series. 1. Forint FX Swap stock of non-residents HUF billions HUF billions Jan. 9 1 Jan. Feb. 1 Feb June June Aug. 19 Aug Dec. Dec. Jan. 1 Jan. Feb. 1 Feb June June 1 Aug. 1 Aug Dec. Dec. Jan Jan. HUF/FX - max 1W HUF/FX - 1W-M HUF/FX - M-1Y HUF/FX - min 1Y FX/HUF - max 1W FX/HUF - 1W-M FX/HUF - M-1Y FX/HUF - min 1Y Notes: due to the nature of the banks' daily report on FX transactions, the components of the FX transactions statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information contained in the data series on net forint purchase of non-resident investors - and its components - is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations. An increase in the swap stock stands for swaps with a long forint spot leg. Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions.calculated from swap transactions between credit institutions and non-resident investors. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and non-standard transactions might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series. 11

13 Financial Markets 1 January 11. Forint FX Swap stock of non-residents HUF billions HUF billions Jan Feb. June 1 19 Aug. 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb June 1 1 Dec. total net FX swap stock of foreigners cumulated HUF purchase of foreigners Notes: due to the nature of the banks' daily report on FX transactions, the components of the FX transactions statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information contained in the data series on net forint purchase of non-resident investors - and its components - is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations. An increase in the swap stock stands for swaps with a long forint spot leg. Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions.calculated from swap transactions between credit institutions and non-resident investors. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and non-standard transactions might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series.. Forint financial assets held by non-residents HUF billions HUF billions Jan. 1 Feb. 1 June Aug Dec. 9 Jan June 1 1 Jan Feb. 1 June 11 Aug. 1 Dec. Source: MNB, TeleDataCast. government securities central bank (two-week) bills equity Notes: January = ; cumulative change. Equity data are not comprehensive, it contains data for large- and mid-cap stocks quoted on the Budapest Stock Exchange. 1

14 Financial Markets 1 January 11. Government securities of non-residents by tenor HUF billions HUF billions June 1 1 June 9 June 1 1 Aug. Aug. 1 Dec. 1 Dec. Dec. 1 Jan. 11 total amount maturing until 1/1/1 maturing between 1/1/1 and 1/1/1 maturing after 1/1/1 auctions, redemptions Notes: 1 June 1 = ; cumulative change without central bank bills.. Government securities held by non-residents HUF billions HUF billions Jan. 9 Feb. June Aug. Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. June Aug. Dec. Jan. 11 T-Bill/MNB-Bill redemption T-Bond redemption T-Bill/MNB-Bill auction T-Bond auction secondary market total Notes: monthly change. The last month contains information on available data. 1

15 Financial Markets 1 January 11. Government securities held by non-residents and the proportion to the total amount outstanding. Jan. Jan. Dec. Feb. June Aug. Dec. Feb. 9 Jan. 1 Jan. 11 HUF bn. Government securities held by non-residents and the proportion to the total amount outstanding,,,,,,,,,,,, 1, 1,,, Jan. 1 1 Jan. Jan. Feb. 1 Feb. Feb June 11 June June 1 Aug. 1 Aug. 1 Aug Dec. 1 Dec. Jan Jan. HUF bn 1 1 stock (right-hand scale) percentage of total amount outstanding stock (right-hand scale) percentage of total amount outstanding (left-hand scale) Notes: MNB calculations without central bank bills. Notes: MNB calculations without central bank bills.. The average time to maturity of residents' and nonresidents' government security portfolio 9. The relative average time to maturity of residents' and non-residents' government security portfolio year year month month,,,,,,,,,, 1 1,, -1-1,, ,, - - Jan. 9 1 Feb. 1 June Aug Dec. 1 Jan June 1 Aug. 1 Dec. Jan. 9 1 Feb. 1 June Aug Dec. 1 Jan June 1 Aug. 1 Dec. total non-residents residents non-residents residents Notes: MNB calculations without T-Bills and central bank (two-week) bills. Notes: MNB calculations; without T-Bills and central bank (two week) bills. 1

16 Financial Markets 1 January 11. The turnover and yield data of the Hungarian primary t-bill and t-bond issues HUF billions 1 month T-bill 1 month T-bill year T-bond year T-bond 1 year T-bond ,,,, Announced (billion HUF) Total bid (billion HUF) Accepted (billion HUF) Max yield ( - rhs) Avg yield ( - rhs) Min yield ( - rhs) Source: ÁKK. Notes: the turnover and yield data of the Hungarian primary t-bill and t-bond issues. In case of floating rate bonds the yield data are not be plotted. 1. Government securities issues, buybacks, redemptions HUF billions HUF billions Jan Jan. 1 Jan. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. Feb June June June 1 9 Aug. 19 Aug. 9 Aug Dec. 1 Dec. Dec. Jan Jan. Net T-bill issuance Bonds bought back Bonds matured Bonds issued Net change Source: ÁKK. 1

17 Financial Markets 1 January 11. Turnover on the forint unsecured interbank market. Turnover on the forint FRA market HUF bn HUF bn HUF bn HUF bn Jan. 9 Feb. June 1 Aug. Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. 1 1 June 19 1 Aug Dec. 11 Jan. 11 Feb. 9 9 June Aug. 1 9 Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. June 1 19 Aug Dec. 1 Jan. 11 -day moving averages -day moving averages -day moving averages -day moving averages Notes: deal dates, based on reporting by domestic banks; central moving averages. Notes: deal dates, based on reporting by domestic banks; central moving averages.. Turnover on the secondary market of government securities HUF billions HUF billions Jan. 9 Jan. 19 Feb. 1 1 June 9 1 Aug. 1 1 Dec. 11 Jan. 1 Feb. Feb June 1 Aug. Aug. 1 Dec. 11 Jan. 11 less than 1 year 1 to years to years more than years Source: KELER Notes: 1-day moving averages. 1

18 International and Regional Environment 1 January 11. ECB policy rate expectations, 1, 1, 1, 1,,,,,, 1, 1, 1, 1,,,,, Jan. 1 June 1 Aug. 1 Dec. 1 Feb Jan. 1 Feb. 19 June 1 Aug. 9 Dec. 1 December 1 1 January January 11 Source: ECB. Notes: estimated by the ECB using the Svensson-technique, based on AAA-rated euro area central government bonds.. Fed policy rate expectations 1, 1, 1, 1,,,,,,,,, 1 Jan June 9 Aug. Dec. Feb. 11 June Aug. Dec. Notes: derived from Fed funds futures contracts. December 1 1 January January 11 1

19 International and Regional Environment 1 January 11. Policy rates of the ECB, Fed, Swiss National Bank and the -month money market interest rates.,,,,,, 1, 1, 1, 1,,,,, 1 Jan. 9 Feb June 1 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. 1 1 June 1 19 Aug. Dec. Jan. ECB EUR yield SNB CHF yield Fed funds target rate USD yield. month interbank and treasury yield spreads Jan. 9 Feb. 1 1 June Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. 11 June 1 Aug. 9 Dec. euro dollar 1

20 International and Regional Environment 1 January month LIBOR - OIS spreads Jan. 9 Feb June 1 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. 1 1 June 1 19 Aug. Dec. Jan. 11 EUR USD GBP. Long-term EUR and USD benchmark yields,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1 Jan. 1 Feb. 1 June Dec. 1 Jan. 9 Feb. 19 June 11 Aug. 1 Dec. Jan June 1 Aug. 1 Dec. 1-year EUR 1-year USD Notes: based on benchmark yield data provided by Thomson Reuters. 19

21 International and Regional Environment 1 January Major currencies versus the dollar Jan. 9 9 Jan. Feb. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. 1 Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. 1 June 1 1 Aug. 9 Dec. Dec. USD/EUR USD/GBP USD/CHF USD/JPY Notes: 1 January = ; cumulative change. Positive values indicate USD appreciation.. Commodity benchmarks USD/barrel; index 19 values USD/ounce Jan. 9 9 Jan. Feb. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. 1 Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. 1 June 1 1 Aug. 9 Dec. Dec. Brent crude oil (USD/barrel) S&P GSCI agricultural and livestock index* S&P GSCI main index* Gold bullion (USD/troy ounce, right-hand scale) Notes: Brent crude oil and gold buillon: nominal values, *Standard&Poor's Goldman Sachs Commodity index: 1 January 9=1.

22 International and Regional Environment 1 January 11. Developed market stock indices Jan. 9 Jan. Feb. 1 June 1 1 Aug. 9 Dec. Dec. Jan. 9 Feb June 1 11 Aug. 1 Dec. 9 Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. Dec. Notes: 1 January = ; cumulative change. DJ STOXX S&P FTSE 1 NIKKEI. Emerging market stock indices Jan. 9 Jan. Feb. 1 June 1 1 Aug. 9 Dec. Dec. Jan. 9 Feb June 1 11 Aug. 1 Dec. 9 Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. Dec. BUX (Hungary) PX (Czech Rep.) WIG (Poland) RTS (Russia) Shanghai Composite Notes: 1 January = ; cumulative change. 1

23 International and Regional Environment 1 January 11. Major risk aversion indicators Jan. 9 9 Jan. Feb. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. 1 Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. 1 June 1 1 Aug. 9 Dec. Dec. Source: Thomson Reuters; JP Morgan. VIX index EUR/USD 1 month implied volatility EMBI Global (right-hand scale) Notes: increases indicate declining risk appetite or increasing risk aversion. VIX is the implied volatility of S&P index.. Key CDS composite indices Jan. 9 9 Jan. Feb. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 9 Jan. Feb. 1 1 June 1 1 Aug. 1 Dec. 1 Dec. itraxx Europe itraxx Europe HiVol CDX investment grade itraxx Crossover CDX high yield (right-hand scale) Notes: itraxx Europe index is composed of the most liquid 1 CDS referencing European investment grade names. itraxx HiVol is a subset of the main index consisting of the most risky constituents. Crossover index comprises the most liquid sub-investment grade entities. CDX North American Investment Grade index consists of 1 names, CDX North American High Yield index comprises 1 names.

24 International and Regional Environment 1 January 11. year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging markets 1 1 June 1 Aug. 1 9 Dec. 9 Feb. 9 1 June Jan. 1 Feb. 1 June 9 Aug. 1 1 Dec. Hungary Romania Bulgaria Croatia CEEMEA SovX Notes: CEEMEA is a composite index calculated from the 1 most liquid sovereign CDS-speads in the CEEMEA region.. year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging markets (last months) Dec. 1 Dec. Dec. Jan. 1 Jan. Hungary Romania Bulgaria Croatia CEEMEA SovX Notes: CEEMEA is a composite index calculated from the 1 most liquid sovereign CDS-speads in the CEEMEA region.

25 International and Regional Environment 1 January year sovereign CDS spreads in peripherial eurozone countries June 1 Aug. 1 9 Dec. 9 Feb. 9 1 June Jan. 1 Feb. 1 June 9 Aug. 1 1 Dec. Greece Portugal Spain Italy Ireland CEEMEA SovX CEEMEA is a composite index calculated from the 1 most liquid sovereign CDS-speads in the CEEMEA region.. year sovereign CDS spreads in peripherial eurozone countries (last months) June June 1 9 Aug. Aug Dec. Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Greece Portugal Spain Italy Ireland CEEMEA SovX CEEMEA is a composite index calculated from the 1 most liquid sovereign CDS-speads in the CEEMEA region.

26 International and Regional Environment 1 January year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging European countries. year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging European countries (utóbbi hónapok) June 1 Aug. 1 9 Dec. 9 Feb. 9 1 June Jan. 1 Feb. 1 June 9 Aug. 1 1 Dec Dec. 1 Dec. Dec. Jan. 1 Jan. Poland Czech Republic Russia Poland Czech Republic Russia Turkey Estonia Turkey Estonia. Emerging market sovereign foreign currency bond spreads Jan. 9 Feb. 1 June 1 Aug. Dec. Jan Dec. Hungary all emerging Latin America CEE Asia Notes: calculated from JP Morgan Euro EMBI data. The series are differences between euro denominated (liquid) foreign currency bond yields and euro zero coupon yields of the corresponding maturities.

27 International and Regional Environment 1 January 11. Policy rates and -month interbank deposit rates in CEE countries Aug. 1 Dec. Jan June 1 Aug. 1 9 Dec. 9 Feb. 1 1 June 1 Aug. 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Hungary Poland Czech Republic Romania HUF interbank depo PLN interbank depo CZK interbank depo RON interbank depo Notes: interbank deposit rates based on Reuters quotes month interbank deposit rates in some Central European and Baltic counties Jan Jan. Feb. Feb June 19 Aug Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 1 1 Feb June 9 June 1 1 Aug Dec. Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Notes: -day moving averages. Estonia Lithuania Latvia Bulgaria Ukraine (right-hand scale)

28 International and Regional Environment 1 January 11. Spreads of -year Eastern European foreign currency bond yields over benchmarks. Spreads of Eastern European foreign currency bond yields over benchmarks Jan. 1 1 Feb June Aug. 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Jan. 1 1 Feb June Aug. 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Hungary (1//1) Poland (1/Feb./1) Czech Republic (/June/1) Romania (1//1) Croatia (1//1) Latvia (//1) Lithuania (1/Feb./1) Ukraine (1//1 - right-hand scale) Notes: spreads of -year Eastern European foreign currency bond yields over the appropriate German benchmark yields. Notes: spreads of -year Eastern European foreign currency bond yields over the appropriate German benchmark yields.. Benchmark yield curves of Hungary, Poland, Ireland and Germany 1 1 m m 1y y y y y y y y 9y 1y 11y 1y 1y 1y 1y 1y 1y 1y 19y y y Hungary Jan 11 Poland Jan 11 Ireland Jan 11 Germany Jan 11 Hungary 1 Dec 1 Poland 1 Dec 1 Ireland 1 Dec 1 Germany 1 Dec 1

29 International and Regional Environment 1 January Spreads over year euro spot zero coupon yields Jan. 1 Feb. 1 June 11 1 Aug Dec. 1 Jan. 9 1 Feb. 1 9 June Aug Dec. 1 Jan Feb. 11 June 1 9 Aug Dec. 1 Jan. 11 Notes: zero-coupon yields provided by Reuters. HUF CZK PLN. year implied spreads over euro rates in year's time Jan. Feb June 1 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 9 Feb. 1 1 June 1 19 Aug. Dec. Jan. 1 1 Feb. 1 1 June Aug. 1 1 Dec. Notes: day moving averages; based on swap rates provided by Reuters. HUF CZK PLN

30 Liquidity Position of the Banking Sector 1 January Developments in central bank balance sheet HUF billions HUF billions Jan. 9 1 Jan. 1 Feb June June 9 Aug. 9 Aug. 1 1 Dec. Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. Feb. 1 1 June June 1 Aug. Aug. 1 1 Dec. Dec. 11 Jan. 11 reserve balances net stock of O/N instruments central bank bill FX-swap instruments two-week loan six-month loan total HUF liquidity. Recourse to central bank instruments HUF billions HUF billions Dec. 1 Dec. Dec. Dec. 9 Dec. 11 Dec. 1 Dec. 1 Dec. 1 Dec. 19 Dec. 1 Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. 9 Dec. 1 Dec. Jan. 11 Jan. Jan. Jan. 1 Jan. 1 Jan. 1 Jan. 1 Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. net stock of O/N instruments FX-swap instruments six-month loan two-week loan 9

31 Inflation 1 January 11. Developments in underlying inflation. The CPI and the Core CPI indicators Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Source: HCSO, MNB Core Consumer Price Index Consumer Price Index Jan/ Sep Jan/ Sep Jan/ Sep Jan/ Sep Jan/ Sep Jan/ Sep Jan/ Sep Jan/9 Sep Jan/1 Sep Source: HCSO, MNB. Range of underlying inflation indicators Core inflation excluding indirect tax changes -1 - Notes: seasonally adjusted year-on-year y growth rates (HCSO adjustments); The time series of core inflation have changed due to the change in the calculation method. Notes: The range is constructed of the median, weighted median, trimmed mean and Edgeworth-index indicators. Weight Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Consumer Price Index 1,,,,, thereof. Decomposition of the Consumer Price Index Unprocessed food, 1,9 1, 1, 1,1 Processed food 11,,,,, Manufactured goods, -, -, -,1, Market services,,,,, Non-regulated household energy 1,9 1, 11, 11, 11,9 Alcohol, tobacco 9,,,,, Gasoline prices, 1, 1, 1,9,1 Regulated prices 1,,1,,, Core Consumer Price Index, 1, 1, 1,9, CPI without Tax Changes 1,,,,, Source: HCSO, MNB decomposition Notes: annual growth rates (); The time series of industrial products, market services, regulated prices have changed because the method of the core inflation developed by the CSO and the NBH has broken down several items (like pharmaceutical products, the telephone, the other travels, the TV fee) from 9.

32 Inflation 1 January 11. The HUF/EUR exchange rate and the analysts' expectations HUF/EUR HUF/EUR 1 1 Jan. 1 June 1 Dec. Feb. 9 1 Aug. Jan Dec June MNB technical assumption in the latest QRI Mean of analysts' expectations Source: Thomson Reuters, MNB. Notes: inverted scale, projected band with a central exchange rate taken to be fixed at,1 from October 1 1, and at, from June. The thin continuous line represents analysts' average exchange rate expectations according to the most recent Reuters CEE FX Poll. The bold line stands for the MNB's technical exchange rate assumption underlying the the latest inflation forecast published in the most recent Quarterly Report on Inflation.. The Brent crude oil price and market expectations USD/barrel 1 USD/barrel Jan Jan. Feb. 1 June 1 Feb. 9 June Jan. 1 Jan Jan Jan. 1 Jan Dec. 1 June Dec. Source: Bloomberg, Consensus Economics. Historical Analysts' expectations* Futures** MNB technical assumption*** Notes: Consensus Economics Forecast (latest survey); the original forecasts refer to the WTI crude oil, and were corrected by the average difference between WTI and Brent to derive figures for the Brent crude oil; ** Based on the latest available futures prices ***Technical assumption underlying the MNB's inflation forecast published in the most recent Quarterly Report on Inflation. 1

33 Inflation 1 January 11. Monetary conditions Jan. Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Jan year real interest rate* (left-hand scale) CPI-based real exchange rate** (right-hand scale) Source: Reuters, KSH, Eurostat, ÁKK, MNB. Notes: * calculated from the 1-year zero-coupon yield and analysts' corresponding 1-year forward inflation expectations derived from the Reuters-poll by the MNB. ** Monthly depreciation of the forint relative to the euro (until April 1 the pre-announced rate of devaluation), adjusted by the corresponding Hungarian CPI and the EMU's HICP (1 January 199 = 1; increase represents appreciation). 9. Fan chart of the inflation forecast Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 1 Q1 Baseline Unfavourable risk assessment More rapid recovery of employment Unanchored inflation expectations Source: MNB, HCSO. Notes: the fan chart represents the uncertainty around the central projection. Overall, the coloured area represents a 9 per cent probability. The central area containing the central projection for the consumer price index illustrated by the dotted line (as the mode of distribution) refers to per cent of the probability. The horizontal line shows the value of the announced inflation target.

34 Inflation 1 January 11. Analysts' expectations for the inflation rate in 11,,,,,,,, 1, 1,,,,,,,,, 1, 1, Jan. 9 Feb. June Aug. Dec. Jan. 1 Feb. June Aug. Dec. Jan. 11 Notes: the thin continuous line represents the trimmed mean calculated by cutting off the lowest and the highest value. The flat line indicates the mediumterm inflation target. 1. Analysts' expectations for the inflation rate in 1,,,,,,,, 1, 1,,,,,,,,, 1, 1, Jan. 1 Feb. June Aug. Dec. Jan. 11 Notes: the thin continuous line represents the trimmed mean calculated by cutting off the lowest and the highest value. The flat line indicates the mediumterm inflation target.

35 Inflation 1 January The latest central projection of the MNB compared to other prognoses Consumer Price Index (annual average growth rate, ) MNB (November 1) -,, Consensus Economics (January 11) European Commission (November 1) -,9, IMF (October 1) -,, OECD (November 1) -,9,1 Reuters survey (January 11) GDP (annual growth rate, ) MNB (November 1) 1,1,1, Consensus Economics (January 11) European Commission (November 1) 1,1,, IMF (October 1),,, OECD (November 1) 1,1,,1 Reuters survey (January 11) Current account balance (percent of GDP) MNB (November 1) 1,,,1 European Commission (November 1),, -. IMF (October 1),, -, OECD (November 1) Budget deficit (ESA-9 method, percent of GDP) MNB (November 1),,,1 Consensus Economics (January 11) European Commission (November 1),,, IMF (October 1),,, OECD (November 1),,1,9 Reuters survey (January 11) 1 - (-.) (-.) Forecasts on the size of Hungary's export markets (annual growth rate, ) MNB (November 1) 1,,, European Commission (November 1) 11,,, IMF (October 1) 9,9,1 - OECD (November 1), 1,,, Forecasts on the GDP growth rate of Hungary's trade partners (annual growth rate, ) MNB (November 1),1 1,9, European Commission (November 1),,1, IMF (October 1),,1, OECD (November 1),,,, The projections of the MNB are 'conditional', which means that they cannot always be directly compared with the projections of other institutions. 1 In addition to the averages of polled analysts responses (the values in the middle), the smallest and largest values are also indicated for the Reuters and Consensus Economics surveys in order to illustrate distribution. Data not adjusted for calendar-day variations. Values calculated by MNB; the projections of the named institutions regarding individual countries are considered with the weights used for calculating the MNB s own external demand indicators. These figures may differ from those published by the aforementioned institutions. OECD did not publish any information about Romania, therefore Romania is not included in our OECD forecast. Sources: Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (Consensus Economics Inc. (London), January 11); European Commission Economic Forecasts (November 1); IMF World Economic Outlook Database (October 1); Reuters survey (January 11); OECD Economic Outlook No. (November 1).

36 External Balance 1 January 11. Net financing capacity of the household sector Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Notes: seasonally adjusted, as a percentage of GDP. Net financing capacity Liabilities Assets. Net financing capacity of the non-monetary corporate sector Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Notes: seasonally adjusted; as a percentage of GDP. net financing capacity liabilities assets

37 External Balance 1 January 11. Net borrowing of the household sector HUF billions HUF billions Jan. Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Consumption and other loans Mortgages (in HUF) Mortgages (in foreign currency) Total amount of loans Notes: monthly change, seasonally adjusted data.. Change in export and import volumes (goods and services) Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Export Import Notes: annual growth rate.

38 Domestic Economic Conjuncture 1 January 11. Annual GDP growth rate. Quarterly GDP growth rate,, 1, 1, 1, 1,,,,, -, -1, -, -1, , -1, - - -, -, -, -, - - -, -, - - -, -, Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Source: HCSO. Notes: annual growth rate. Source: HCSO. Notes: seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rate. 9. Fan chart of the GDP forecast Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 11 Q1 1 Q1 Baseline Unfavourable risk assessment More rapid recovery of employment Unanchored inflation expectations Source: MNB, HCSO. Notes: the fan chart represents the uncertainty around the central projection. Overall, the coloured area represents a 9 per cent probability. The central area containing the central projection for the GDP illustrated by the dotted line (as the mode of distribution) refers to per cent of the probability.

39 Domestic Economic Conjuncture 1 January New dwelling trends 91. Developments in home prices Q1 199 Q1 199 Q1 199 Q Q1 Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Constructed dwellings (seasonally adjusted) Issued construction permits (seasonally adjusted) Source: HCSO. Notes: year-on-year volume indices of trend-estimates. Source: Origo, FHN. Real home prices (Origo database) Notes: year-on-year indices of trend-estimates; CPI deflated. FHB home price index 9. Household consumption and the accumulation of gross fixed assets Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Household consumption Gross fixed capital formation Source: HCSO. Notes: annual growth rates.

40 Domestic Economic Conjuncture 1 January Industrial production and the output of the manufacturing sector Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Industrial production Manufacturing sector Source: HCSO. Notes: year-on-year volume indices of seasonally adjusted data. 9. New orders in selected branches of the manufacturing sector Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 New domestic orders New export orders Source: HCSO, MNB. Notes: year-on-year volume indices of seasonally adjusted data. 9

41 Domestic Economic Conjuncture 1 January GKI household confidence index (reweighted) 9. Quarterly growth rates of automobile sales level level Source: GKI. Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 - - Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Automobile sales Source: Association of Hungarian Motor Vehicle Importers. month moving average - Notes: the re-weighted consumer confidence index takes into account those sub-indices of the GKI survey which are the most highly correlated with the time series of household consumption expenditure. (For more details see: MNB Background Studies 1/) 9. Total volume of retail trade Jan. Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Total retail sales -month central moving average Source: HCSO. Notes: seasonally adjusted annualised monthly growth rates. The data of total retail sales contain beyond the narrow retail sales the turnover of motor vehicles and automotive fuel as well.

42 Domestic Economic Conjuncture 1 January Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions in corporate sector H 9 Q Q Q1 (forecast) H H1 H H1 H H1 H H1 H 9 Q Q Q1 (forecast) H H1 H H1 H H1 H H1 H 9 Q Q Q1 (forecast) Large and mediumsized enterprises Small and micro-sized enterprises Commercial real estate loans Notes: creditworthiness standards and credit conditions estimated by lending officers. Negative value indicates easing, positive indicates tightening compared to the last quarter (before 9 to previous half a year). 99. Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions in corporate sector H H1 H H1 H H1 H H1 H H1 H H1 H 9 Q Q Q1 (forecast) Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions - housing loan Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions - consumer loan Notes: creditworthiness standards and credit conditions estimated by lending officers. Negative value indicates easing, positive indicates tightening compared to the last quarter (before 9 to previous half a year). 1

43 Labour Market 1 January Wage growth in the manufacturing sector Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Average gross wage ex-bonus payments Average gross wage Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by NBH Notes: annual growth rates. 11. Wage growth in the market service sector Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Average gross wage ex-bonus payments Average gross wage Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by NBH. Notes: annual growth rates.

44 Labour Market 1 January Wage growth in the private sector 1. Unit labour cost in the private sector Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Average gross wage ex-bonus payments Average gross wage -1 Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1-1 Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by NBH. Notes: annual growth rates. Source: HCSO. Notes: seasonally adjusted, annualised quarterly growth rates. 1. Activity and unemployment thousand persons 1 9 thousand persons Jan. 199 Jan Jan. Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Source: HCSO. Notes: levels, seasonally adjusted. number of employed economically active unemployed (right-hand scale)

45 International and Regional Environment 1 January year government benchmark yields in CEE countries 1. Budget deficit in the CEE countries Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 9 Dec. Feb. 1 Aug. 1 1 Hungary Poland Czech Republic Maastricht reference value Hungary (1-month average) Hungary Poland Czech Republic Source: Eurostat. Source: Consensus Economics December 1). Notes: as a percentage of GDP. In the case of Poland and the Czech Republic privatisation revenues are not included. 1. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 Hungary Poland Czech Republic Maastricht reference value Hungary (1-month average) Source: Eurostat Notes: annual growth rate.

46 International and Regional Environment 1 January GDP growth rate in CEE Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovakia Source: Eurostat. Notes: same period of previous year = 1; seasonally adjusted data. 19. External financing capacity in the CEE countries Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Source: Eurostat, MNB, CNB, NBP. Notes: seasonally adjusted, as a percentage of GDP. Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovakia

47 International and Regional Environment 1 January Business climate indices in the EMU 111. The annual growth rate of the volume of imported goods and services 11,, 1,, 1,, 1 1 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 1 9, 9,,, 9, -, 9, -1,, -1, - -, -,, -, -1-1,, -, -, -1-1, Jan. Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 -, - Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 - IFO Source: IFO; European Committee. EABCI (right-hand scale) Eurozone United States Japan Notes: IFO: Business Climate Index of the German Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Average of year = 1); EABCI: Business Climate Index of the European Committee (deviations from the long-run average), seasonally adjusted. Notes: seasonally adjusted data. 11. GDP growth rate in the EMU, US and Japan, 1, 1, -, -1-1, - -, - -, - -, - -,, 1, 1, -, -1-1, - -, - -, - -, - -, Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 EMU USA Japan Source: EUROSTAT. Notes: seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rates

48 Real Exchange Rates 1 January ULC based real effective exchange rate of the HUF Q1 1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 9 Q1 1 Q1 Source: HCSO. Notes: average of year = CPI and PPI based real effective exchange rates of the HUF Jan. 199 Jan Jan. Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 CPI based PPI based Source: HCSO, MNB, ECB Notes: average of year = 1.

49 Monetary aggregates 1 January Real growth rate of monetary aggregates (year-on-year basis) Jan Jan. Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 M M M1 11. Real growth rate of monetary aggregates (annualized from quarterly rates) Jan Jan. Jan. 1 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 9 Jan. 1 M1 M M