GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET QUARTERLY REPORT Q2 2018
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1 MARKET QUARTERLY REPORT Q2 218
2 The deficit of the central government amounted to HUF 1,42. billion (about EUR 4.3 billion) in 218. The net financing need was decreased by HUF billion of the net balance of transfers from the European Union and other sources. Thus, the total net financing need amounted to HUF billion. Net issuance was HUF 1,238.7 billion, out of which net HUF denominated issuance was HUF 1,721.7 billion and net foreign currency denominated redemption was HUF 483. billion. The total amount of other liabilities increased by HUF 18.9 billion in 218. ÁKK had set up benchmarks to maintain the optimal cost-risk characteristics of public debt. The 9-day moving average values of those benchmarks at the end of Q2 218 were as follows: The share of foreign currency denominated debt within the total debt decreased to of the foreign currency debt was denominated in euro. The fixed-floating mix of the foreign currency debt portfolio was The fixed-floating mix of the HUF-denominated debt was 8.6 and 41.4 respectively. The duration of the HUF-denominated debt was 2.8 years. All benchmark targets were met in Q The month short term and the year long term secondary market yields also increased in Q2. The the 3 month yield increased by 13 basis points and 6-12 month yields increased by 38-9 basis points. The 3- year yields increased by the same 14 basis points and the 1-1 year yields were also higher by basis points compared to Q At the end of the 1-year benchmark yield stood at.62, the 3-year yield at 1.8 and the 1-year yield at 3.9. The liquidity in the secondary market was higher by 32 than in the previous quarter. OTC turnover of government securities in Q2 amounted to HUF 16,743.9 billion. Primary dealers, who account for the decisive part of all secondary government securities trading, made 7 of their secondary government securities deals with non-resident investors. The volume of non-resident holdings of Hungarian government securities increased by HUF 36.7 billion from end- and amounted to HUF 3,623.9 billion at the end of. This amount represented 17. of domestic government securities. The credit rating of the long-term foreign currency denominated debt of Hungary was: BBB- (Standard & Poor s); Baa3 (Moody s); BBB- (Fitch) as at The EUR/HUF exchange rate according to the National Bank of Hungary was on the last working day of. 2 Government securities QUARTERLY REPORT
3 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS GDP growth (yearly average) Industrial production Unemployment rate () (3-month average) Consumer price index (yearly change) Consumer price index (yearly average) Producer price index (yearly change) Producer price index (yearly average) Net lending position of housholds (HUF Bn) 3 1,18. 1,492. 1,466. 1,47.8 1,78.2 2,64.1 1,87.2 1,962.7 Current account of balance of payments (EUR M) ,71.8 3, ,87.4 3,88.1 6,86.4 3,63.6 Net direct investments (EUR M) 4-2, ,94.6-1, , ,32.7-2, ,926.4 Balance of the central government budget (HUF Bn) , , ,94.2-1,476.3 Balance of the central government budget (GFS, per cent of GDP) Balance of the central government budget (ESA, percent of GDP) Central government gross debt (HUF Bn) 2,41. 2,9. 2, , , , ,43. 26, ,333.7 Central government gross debt (per cent of GDP) Net foreign debt (EUR M) 6 3, ,88. 4, ,4.1 34, ,66. 21, ,413. Net foreign debt (per cent of GDP) HUF/USD mid exchange rate at the end of period HUF/EUR mid exchange rate at the end of period Q Same period of previous year = 1, working day adjusted 2 In case of yearly data: /previous, otherwise month/same month of the previous year 3 Non-consolidated data 4 Including intercompany loans Excluding privatisation proceeds 6 Excluding intercompany loans Source: KSH, MNB, PM/NGM, ÁKK 4 1-year Hungarian and eurozone benchmark yields during the last twelve months Source: Bloomberg, ÁKK Source: MNB The exchange rate of the Hungarian Forint during the last twelve months year Hungarian sovereign benchmark yield 1-year euro benchmark yield 1-year Hungarian sovereign yield spread HUF/EUR exchange rate HUF/USD exchange rate Monthly balance of the central government budget Gross borrowing requirement 1 1 Source: MNB 1,8 1,6 Source: NGM, ÁKK 1,4 1,2-1, July 217 January 218 Budget balance excluding net interest payments Net interest payments Monthly balance July 217 Monthly deficit (+) / surplus (-) of the central budget Redemptions January 218 Borrowing requirement of the Social Security and extrabudgetary funds Net balance of EU transfer prefinancing Total borrowing requirement 3 Government securities QUARTERLY REPORT
4 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT GOVERNMENT SECURITIES Q1 218 HUF BILLION 1. Forint denominated debt 1, , , , , , ,43.9 2, , , Loans ,41.1 1,8.8 1, Government securities 1, , , , , , ,6.8 19, , , Public issues 1,19.6 9, , , , , , ,69.2 2,9.7 21, Bonds 7,96.8 7,33.4 8, ,88.8 9, , , , , , Discount T-bills 1, ,4.9 1,96. 1,94.9 1, ,39.2 1, , Retail securities ,688. 2, ,17.4,67.9 6,82.9 7,17. 7, Private placements Foreign currency denominated debt* 8, ,17.4 8, ,94.9 8,97.9 7,73.8 6,26.,782.,81., Loans 4, ,48.1 3,312. 2,73.6 2, , , Foreign loans 4, , ,229. 2,4.2 1, , , Domestic loans Government securities 4,.,712.3,14.1 6, , ,39.,14.9 4,83. 4,87.6 4, Issued abroad 4,., ,924.2,736.9,844.6, , ,14.9 4,167. 3, Issued domestically Total 19,821. 2,32.6 2, , , , , , , ,4.6 Other liabilities Total central government debt 2,41. 2,9. 2, , , , ,43. 26, ,6.6 28,333.7 Marketable HUF debt ( ) 1,1.8 9, , , , , , ,84. 13, ,72.6 Gross debt/gdp *Foreign exchange debt is recorded at the mid exchange rate of the NBH at the end of the year/month. Q2 218 Composition of HUF government securities as at Discount Treasury Bills 8.2 Currency composition of the foreign exchange debt portfolio before swaps as at * CNY 1.4 Retail government securities 34. EUR 42. USD.4 * Without retail government securities. Floating rate bonds*.3 Fixed rate bonds* 2. JPY 1.2 * Composition before swaps. By using cross-currency swaps, 1 of the actual foreign exchange debt of the central government was due in euros. 8 7 Maturity profile of the central government gross debt over the next 12 months, as at Duration and average term-to-maturity of the HUF and foreign currency debt portfolios Years July 218 January 219 Discount Treasury Bills Government Bonds Foreign exchange debt Other debt HUF debt duration HUF debt average term-to-maturity Foreign exchange debt duration Foreign exchange debt average term-to-maturity 4 Government securities QUARTERLY REPORT
5 GOVERNMENT BOND AUCTION RESULTS Government Bond 223/B 221/C 222/B 227/A 221/A 221/C 222/B 227/A 223/B 221/C 222/B 227/A 223/B ISIN code HU4346 HU43464 HU43266 HU43118 HU4299 HU43464 HU43266 HU43118 HU4346 HU43464 HU43266 HU43118 HU4346 Maturity (in years) Coupon Auction 7th auction 6th auction 33rd auction 4th auction 36th auction 7th auction 34th auction 46th auction 8th auction 8th auction 3th auction 47th auction 9th auction Date of auction Date of financial settlement Redemption date Maximum annual yield () - ISMA Minimum annual yield () - ISMA Average annual yield () - ISMA Maximum annual yield () - EHM Minimum annual yield () - EHM Average annual yield () - EHM Maximum price () Minimum price () Average price () Amount offered for sale (HUF million) 8,. 2,. 2,. 2,. 8,. 2,. 2,. 2,. 8,. 2,. 2,. 2,. 8,. Amount of bids submitted (HUF million) 18,8. 78,42. 49,1.,41. 3,87. 39, ,6. 38,97.4 2,4. 42,7. 62,8. 41, ,. Amount of bids accepted (HUF million) 12,. 33,. 33, , , ,. 33,. 2,. 1,. 28, , , ,. Bid-to-cover ratio Bids submitted (pcs) Bids accepted (pcs) Tail (average price - minimum price) Market sales (HUF million) 12,. 33,. 33, , , ,. 33,. 2,. 1,. 28, , , ,. Non-competitive offer (HUF million) ,76. 4, , , ,12. 9,23. 3,3. 2, ,3. 4,42.4. Total amount sales (HUF million) 12,62. 46,26. 37, , , ,12. 42,73. 28,3. 12,4. 29, , , ,. GOVERNMENT BOND AUCTION RESULTS Government Bond 221/C 222/B 227/A 223/B 221/C 222/B 238/A 223/B 221/C 224/C 227/A 223/B ISIN code HU43464 HU43266 HU43118 HU4346 HU43464 HU43266 HU43 HU4346 HU43464 HU4371 HU43118 HU4346 Maturity (in years) Coupon Auction 9th auction 36th auction 48th auction 1th auction 1th auction 37th auction 3rd auction 11th auction 11th auction 1st auction 49th auction 12th auction Date of auction Date of financial settlement Redemption date Maximum annual yield () - ISMA Minimum annual yield () - ISMA Average annual yield () - ISMA Maximum annual yield () - EHM Minimum annual yield () - EHM Average annual yield () - EHM Maximum price () Minimum price () Average price () Amount offered for sale (HUF million) 2,. 2,. 1,.,. 2,. 2,. 7,.,. 2,. 2,. 1,.,. Amount of bids submitted (HUF million) 24,29. 87,91. 46,7.4, ,9. 63,96. 1,8. 9,3. 28,43. 2,41. 2, ,. Amount of bids accepted (HUF million) 2,. 33, ,.,. 32, , ,. 6,. 19, ,. 1,.,. Bid-to-cover ratio Bids submitted (pcs) Bids accepted (pcs) Tail (average price - minimum price) Market sales (HUF million) 2,. 33, ,.,. 32, , ,. 6,. 19, ,. 1,.,. Non-competitive offer (HUF million). 12, , , , ,24.. 2,24. 1, Total amount sales (HUF million) 2,. 46, ,999.99,. 36, , ,. 8,24. 19, ,24. 16,219.99,. Government securities QUARTERLY REPORT
6 3-year government bond auctions -year government bond auctions year government bond year government bond auctions INTEREST RATE RESETS OF FLOATING RATE GOVERNMENT BONDS IN Q2 218 Government bond Date of interest rate reset Interest period Date of interest payment Reset interest rate Interest payable 218/D /I /O /B /O /B /B /D /N /O /J /A Government securities QUARTERLY REPORT
7 3-month Discount Treasury Bill and Liquidity Discount Treasury Bill auctions 12-month Discount Treasury Bill auctions PRIMARY DEALERS - AS AT 3 JUNE 218 BNP Paribas SA J.P. Morgan Securities Plc. CIB Bank Zrt. K&H Bank Zrt. CITIBANK Europe Plc. Magyar Takarékszövetkezeti Bank Zrt. Deutsche Bank AG MKB Bank Zrt. ERSTE Befektetési Zrt. OTP Bank Nyrt. Goldman Sachs International Raiffeisen Bank Zrt. ING Bank N.V. UniCredit Bank Hungary Zrt. * Merrill Lynch International actually agreed to terminate Primary Dealingship on Benchmark yields in the past three months Percent month 1-year 3-year 1-year Benchmark yield curves Percent Maturity in years 7 Government securities QUARTERLY REPORT
8 Secondary market trading of Hungarian government securities (OTC) Secondary market trading of Hungarian government securities (MTS Hungary trading) 7, 6, Source: KELER, ÁKK 1, , MTS Hungary 1 9 8, 4, 3, 2, , July 217 January 218 July 217 January 218 Bonds (left scale) Discount T-bills (right scale) Bonds (left scale) Discount T-bills (right scale) Breakdown of primary dealers' secondary market turnover in government bonds by investor groups in Q2 218 Breakdown of primary dealers' secondary market turnover in Discount Treasury Bills by investor groups in Q2 218 Households. Credit institutions 13.9 Brokerage Primary firms 2.2 dealers.7 Institutional investors 6.9 Companies. Public sector.8 Public sector 4. Foreign investors 11.6 Households 6.9 Credit institutions 22. Brokerage firms 2.3 Primary dealers 1.9 Foreign investors 69.6 Companies 1.3 Institutional investors 41. Primary dealers' trading with different investor groups in Q , 1,4 7, 6,, 4, 3, 2, Quarterly turnover Average deal size 1,2 1, HUF million Government securities with the highest secondary market turnover in Q2 218 Government security Date of redemption Turnover () 227/A , /B , /B , /D /A /A /C , 2 22/C /A Foreign investors Credit institutions Institutional investors Primary dealers Brokerage firms Companies Households Public sector 222/A Government securities QUARTERLY REPORT
9 Non-residents' holdings of Hungarian government securities during the last year and the MAX index 3,8 3,8 3,7 3,7 3,6 3,6 Source: KELER , 3, 3, points 3,4 3,3 3,3 3,2 3,2 Non-residents' holdings (LHS) MAX Composite index (RHS) , HUNGARIAN GOVERNMENT SECURITIES INDICES Value of the index Annual yield earned on the index portfolio MAX index RMAX index MAX Composite index ZMAX index MAX index RMAX index MAX Composite index ZMAX index OUTSTANDING AMOUNT OF BENCHMARK GOVERNMENT BOND SERIES IN Q2 218 Government bond REUTERS PAGES (CODES) main page: HUTREASURY 221/C /B ,6. 1, /A /A Auction results are available from 11.3 (CET) HUISSUE HUAUCTION1 HUAUCTION2 HUAUCTION3 HUAUCTION4 HUBUYBACK HUEXCHANGE HURETAIL Secondary market data HUBONDFIX HUBONDAKK, HUBONDAKK4 HUBONDAKK2, HUBONDAKK3 HUBONDINDEX1 HUBONDINDEX2 HUMAXCOMP1, HUMAXCOMP2 HUAKK1,HUAKK2,HUAKK3 Other HUFLOATER HUBONDINFO Publication of the following issues and reverse auctions Discount T-bill auction results Government Bond auction results Non-competitive fixed rate bonds offer Non-competitive floating rate bonds Government Bond buyback auction results Government Bond exchange auction results 6-month Interest Bearing Treasury Bill underwriting results Benchmark yield fixing (updated during CET) Best morning secondary market quotations Best afternoon secondary market quotations Hungarian Government Total Return Index (MAX), updated during CET Benchmark Indices for Governmnet Bonds BMX3Y-1Y (updated during CET) Hungarian Government Total Return Index (MAX) statistics MAX Composite Index Interest rate reset of floating rate bonds Primary Dealers FURTHER INFORMATION PAGES: Bloomberg pages (code): GDMA Homepage: Government securities QUARTERLY REPORT
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