Government of Canada Securities

Transcription

1 A Publication of the Department of Finance Canadian Economy March 999 OECD economic forecast for (December 99) (forecast) 999 (forecast)..... Consumer price index year over year CPI CPI excl. food, energy and indirect taxes Target range Real GDP growth GDP deflator Short-term interest rate () () 9-day finance company paper. () Over -year federal government bonds. Source: OECD... Long-term interest rate () - Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-99 Source: Statistics and Bank of. -month Treasury bill rates -year government bond rates 9 United States Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-99 Source: Bank of and Federal Reserve. United States Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-99 Source: Bank of and Federal Reserve. Upcoming economic data releases of interest April May June March Labour Force Survey April Labour Force Survey May Labour Force Survey (April 9) (May ) (June ) March CPI April CPI 999 National Accounts (April ) (May ) (June ) May CPI (June )

2 Canadian Economy Selected Canadian economic statistics Q Q Annualized growth rates Real gross domestic product..... GDP excluding inventories..... Final domestic demand Employment Government of net debt and budgetary balance of GDP of GDP Net debt Other Unemployment rate Current account balance ( of nominal GDP) Deficit Surplus Source: Statistics. Forecast budget s current account balance and merchandise trade balance of GDP Current account Merchandise trade Q 99 Q Exchange rate C$ / US$ Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-99 Monetary conditions index January 9 = Canadian monetary aggregates year over year M M Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-99 - Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-99

3 Primary Market Outstanding Government of Treasury bills, bonds (by term maturity) and retail debt (as of February, 999) T-bills - yrs - yrs - yrs - yrs - yrs retail Bonds, RRBs Recent Government of bond auction results Auction Maturity Coupon Issue Average Average Auction date Term date rate amount price yield coverage Tail (years) (%) (milions of dollars) (%) (basis points) * n.a Coverage is defined as the ratio of total bids (incl. all on-competitive bids) at auction to the amount auctioned. Tail is defined as the high accepted yield minus the average yield. *Real Return Bonds. Forthcoming Government of bond auctions Auction Further details Dated and date of issue delivered Amount Type of issue (999) (999) (999) maturing (millions of dollars) -year auction April April May -year auction May May May -year auction May May June RRB auction* June May June -year auction June 9 June June *Single-price auction format. Note: One repurchase operation of Government of marketable bonds is planned under the pilot bond buyback program in the -year sector. Further details will be released on May, 999.

4 Primary Market Government of bond market benchmarks (February, 999) Amount Yield Term Maturity Coupon outstanding Feb. /99 (%) (millions (%) of dollars) Fixed coupon -year Dec /.,. -year Sep /. 9,. -year Jun /. 9,. -year Jun /. 9,. Real return -year Dec /.,. The normal bid-ask spread on these bonds is cents. Average term to maturity of Government of marketable debt years Forthcoming Government of marketable bond maturities January-March April-June July-September October-December January-March (millions of dollars),,,., Outstanding Government of / Foreign-currency debt (as of January, 999) (millions) Bills US$,9 Notes US$ Outstanding under EMTN program US$, Floating rate note maturing February 999 US$, (paying LIBOR less basis points) % US$ bonds maturing May, US$, % US$ bonds maturing May, US$, % US$ bonds maturing July, US$, % US$ bonds maturing February 9, US$, % US$ bonds maturing July, US$, % US$ bonds maturing August, US$, % NZ$ bonds maturing October, US$9 % DM bonds maturing July, US$, % US$ bonds maturing November, US$, s level of liquid foreign reserves billions of U.S. dollars Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-9 Jan-99

5 Secondary Market Canadian yield-to-maturity curve 9 August 9, 99 February, 99 February, 999 month months months year years years years years years years Government of bonds trading volume and turnover ratio,,,, Government of Treasury bills trading volume and turnover ratio,,, = total trading volume in each quarter/stock = total trading volume in each quarter/stock Government Securities Distributors Bank of Montreal (Treasury bills only) Beacon Securities Limited BLC Securities Inc. La Caisse centrale Desjardins Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (Treasury bills only) Casgrain & Company Limited CIBC Wood Gundy Securities Inc. (marketable bonds only) CTI Capital Inc. Deutsche Bank Securities Limited Golden Capital Securities Limited Goldman Sachs Hongkong Bank of Lévesque Beaubien Geoffrion Inc. Merrill Lynch Inc. J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. Morgan Stanley Limited Nesbitt Burns Inc. (marketable bonds only) Ocean Securities Inc. Odlum Brown Limited RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Salomon Smith Barney Inc. ScotiaMcLeod Inc. Société Générale Valeurs Mobilières Inc. Tassé & Associates, Limited The Toronto-Dominion Bank Whalen, Béliveau & Associates Inc.

6 Secondary Market Government of bond repos trading volume and turnover ratio,,,,, Government of Treasury bill repos trading volume and turnover ratio,,,,, = total trading volume in each quarter/stock. = total trading volume in each quarter/stock. -year Government of bond futures month-end open interest average daily volume, Month-end open interest 9, Average daily volume,,,,,,,,,,,,,, -month bankers acceptance futures month-end open interest average daily volume,,, Month-end open interest Average daily volume,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan Source: The Montreal Exchange. Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan Source: The Montreal Exchange. Government of long-term credit ratings Standard Moody s Investor Canadian Bond Dominion Bond and Poor s Service Rating Service Rating Service Current Current Current Current Domestic Debt AAA Aa AA+ AAA Trend Stable Stable Stable Foreign Debt AA+ Aa AA+ AA(high) Trend Stable Stable Stable This publication is also available on the Internet at Except as noted, the information in Government of Securities is based upon data available as of February, 999. For further information, contact Sandra Lavoratore () For additional copies or subscription inquiries, please contact the Distribution Centre at () 99-. Cet imprimé est également disponible en français. Department of Finance Ministère des Finances