MONTHLY BULLETIN - N 243 August 2010
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1 MONTHLY BULLETIN - N August 1 DEBT GENERAL DATA... 1 PRIMARY MARKET... SECONDARY MARKET... THE FRENCH ECONOMY... 6 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS... 7 FRENCH GOVERNMENT NEGOTIABLE DEBT OUTSTANDING Bloomberg TRESOR <Go> - Reuters TRESOR - Pages Bridge Menu 1 78 Available in French and English Publication manager: Philippe Mills Editor: Agence France Trésor DEBT GENERAL DATA French government long- and medium-term negotiable debt on July 1, 1 nominal value of each line, BTAN OAT linked Auction indicative calendar 6 Non-resident holdings of French government negotiable debt securities as a % of negotiable debt outstanding , 8,7 8,7 9/7** 1/7** 11/7** 61, 6, 61,6 6, 6,1 6,9 6,9 66, 67,9 69, 1/7** /8** 6/8** 9/8** 1/8** /9** 6/9** 9/9** 1/9** /1* Source: Banque de France (*) figures revised quarterly (**) figures revised annually BTF BTAN / index linked OAT OAT August 1 auction date settlement date sept. - - September 1 auction date settlement date anticipated or delayed auctions (bank holidays, etc.) Monthly bulletin N August 1
2 PRIMARY MARKET Long- and medium-term financing over the year on July 1, 1 realized medium-term realized long-term Cumulative total on July 1, 1 : 16 billion Jan. Feb. March Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. OATs and BTANs issues and cumulative total on July 1, BTAN,7% 1/1 OAT % /1 BTAN,% 7/1 BTAN,7% 9/1 OAT,7% 1/1 BTAN,7% 1/1 OAT % /1 BTAN,% 7/1 BTAN,% 1/1 BTAN % 7/1 BTAN,% 1/1 BTAN % 7/1 OAT i 1,6% 7/1 OAT % 1/1 OAT % 1/16 OAT,7% /17 OATi 1% 7/17 OAT % /18 OAT,% 1/18 OATi 1,% 7/19 OAT,7% 1/19 OAT,% / OAT i,% 7/ OAT,7% /1 OAT i 1,1% 7/ OATi,1% 7/ OAT,% 1/ OAT 6% 1/ OAT,% /6 OAT,% /9 OAT,7% 1/ OAT,7% / OAT i 1,8% 7/ OAT,% /1 OAT % /6 * nominal value issued before 1 issued in 1 OATs and BTANs: indicative repayment schedule on July 1, 1 interest redemption 1 1 8/1 9/1 1/1 11/1 1/1 1/11 /11 /11 /11 /11 6/11 7/11 Source : Agence France Trésor Monthly bulletin N August 1
3 m OAT and BTAN auctions July 1 OAT 8 years OAT 1 years OAT 16 years BTAN years OAT years BTAN years OATi 9 years OAT i 1 years 1//18 // //6 9//1 //1 1/7/1 7//19 7//,%,%,%,7%,%,% 1,% 1,1% Auction date 7/1/1 7/1/1 7/1/1 7/1/1 7/1/1 7/1/1 7/1/1 7/1/1 Settlement date 7/6/1 7/6/1 7/6/1 7//1 7//1 7//1 7//1 7//1 Amount announced < 6, --- 7, > < 7, , > < 1, ,8 > Bid amount, 7,8,9 6,6,9 6,6 1,,1 Amount served 1,,17,9, 1,,,6 1,1 of which: NCTs before auction,,,,,,,, NCTs after auction,11,9,9,1,6 1,99,, Total issued amount 1,1,11,69,76 1,8,19,6 1,1 Bid-to-cover ratio,1,1 1,,18, 1,6,8 1,9 Weighted average price 11,9% 1,86% 99,7% 99,% 17,71% 1,11% 1,77% 96,% Yield to maturity,76%,%,%,97% 1,1% 1,98%,98% 1,% Indexation coefficient* ,16 1,16 * as of the settlement date m BTF auctions July 1 BTF BTF BTF BTF BTF BTF BTF 1 month month month month 6 month 9 month 1 year Auction date 7//1 7//1 7//1 Settlement date 7/8/1 7/8/1 7/8/1 Maturity 9//1 1//1 6//11 Total issued amount, 1,, Weighted average rate,9%,17%,% Auction date 7/1/1 7/1/1 7/1/1 Settlement date 7/1/1 7/1/1 7/1/1 Maturity 1/1/1 1//1 6//11 Total issued amount, 1,1,1 Weighted average rate,16%,7%,61% Auction date 7/19/1 7/19/1 7/19/1 Settlement date 7//1 7//1 7//1 Maturity 9/16/1 1/1/1 1/7/11 Total issued amount 1,8,,6 Weighted average rate,1%,%,61% Auction date 7/6/1 7/6/1 7/6/1 7/6/1 Settlement date 7/9/1 7/9/1 7/9/1 7/9/1 Maturity 1/7/1 1/8/1 1/7/11 7/8/11 Total issued amount 1,7,69 1,8,77 Weighted average rate,96%,66%,7%,69% Monthly bulletin N August 1
4 SECONDARY MARKET French government yield curve quote at end of the month, in % structure in % OAT ownership by type of holder first quarter 1 1 non-resident investors french insurance companies french credit institutions UCITS (french money funds) 1 yr yrs 1 years years years years 7/9 6/1 7/1 others (french) Source: Bloomberg Source: Banque de France Breakeven inflation daily quotes in % /1/8 1/1/8 /1/9 8/1/9 1/1/9 /1/1 8/1/1 France 1 years (1) Euro zone 1 years () France years () Euro zone years () (1) difference between the yield of the OAT.7% April 17 and the yield of the OATi 1% July 17 () difference between the yield of the OAT.% April 19 and the yield of the OAT i.% July () difference between the yield of the OAT.% April 9 and the yield of the OATi.% July 9 () difference between the yield of the OAT.7% October and the yield of the OAT i.1% July Source: Bloomberg Negotiable government debt and swaps end end end end end end end end of June end of July Negotiable government debt outstanding ,17 1,18 1,8 1,19 OAT BTAN BTF Swaps outstanding Average maturity of the negotiable debt before swaps years 6 years 6 years 7 years 7 years 6 years 6 years 6 years 7 years 97 days 79 days 67 days days 1 days 9 days 6 days days 1 days after swaps years 6 years 6 years 7 years 7 years 6 years 6 years 6 years 7 years days days 8 days 16 days 9 days 76 days days 6 days days Monthly bulletin N August 1
5 Turnover on the most liquid OATs and the most liquid BTANs daily average () Primary dealers, monthly fixed-rate repo transactions 1 1 OAT BTAN 7/9 8/9 9/9 1/9 11/9 1/9 1/1 /1 /1 /1 /1 6/1 7/ days -11 days 1- days > days 6/8 8/8 1/8 1/8 /9 /9 6/9 8/9 1/9 1/9 /1 /1 6/1 Source: Euroclear France Source: primary dealers Primary dealers, repo outstanding at end of month /8 8/8 1/8 1/8 /9 /9 6/9 8/9 1/9 1/9 /1 /1 6/1 fixed-rate repos floating-rate repos others Source: primary dealers Stripping and reassembly activity stripping reassembly strips outstanding (right-hand scale) See tab on page 9 for more details on stripped bonds Source: Euroclear France Monthly bulletin N August 1
6 THE FRENCH ECONOMY Macro-economic forecast Real growth rate as a % French GDP -,6 1,, Household consumption,6 1,,6 Business investment -8,,6 6, Exports -1,,7,8 Imports -1,7,6, Consumer prices,1 1, 1, (on an annual average basis) Recent economic indicators Industrial output*, year-on-year.7% 6/1 Household consumption*, year-on-year -1.9% 6/1 Unemployment rate (ILO) 9.9% /1 Consumer prices, year-on-year all items 1.7% 7/1 all items excluding tobacco 1.6% 7/1 Trade balance, fob-fob, sa -.8 EUR bn 6/1 " " -. EUR bn /1 Current account balance, sa -.7 EUR bn 6/1 " " -. EUR bn /1 1-year constant maturity rate (TEC1).99% 7//1 -month interest rate (Euribor).896% 7//1 EUR / USD 1.8 7//1 EUR / JPY //1 Source: Ministry of the Economy, Industry and Employment *manufactured goods Source: Insee; Ministry of the Economy, Industry and Employment; Banque de France Gross domestic product at chain-linked previous year prices Variation in % Euro exchange rate Daily quotes quarterly (left-hand scale) year on year (right-hand scale) /1/7 /1/8 Euro/dollar (left-hand scale) Euro/y en (right-hand scale) 6/1/8 9/1/8 1/1/8 /1/9 6/1/9 9/1/9 1/1/9 /1/1 6/1/ Source: Insee, quarterly national accounts Source: European Central Bank Government budget monthly position end of June level General budget balance -6,99-19,91-17, -9,6-7, revenue 91,1 7, 16,1 117, 11,66 expenditure 8,11 67,1 17,6 176,8 189, Balance of special Treasury accounts,7-8,1-1, -,1-1, General budget outturn -6,7-18, -,78-8, -61,67 Source: Ministry of the Budget, Public Accounts and State Reform for more information: Public finance: general government deficit and debt As a % of GDP deficit (left-hand scale) debt (right-hand scale) 87. 8, 86, ,1 8, 7, 67, ,,6, Source: according to Maastricht Treaty, Insee and Ministry of the Economy, Industry and Employment Monthly bulletin N August 1 6
7 Timetable for the release of French economic indicators 6 Foreign trade in June 8 Central government budget: statement at end of June 1 Industrial output in June 11 Balance of payments in June 1 Consumer prices: provisional index for July 1 Quarterly national accounts: first results Q-1 1 Payroll employment: provisional results Q-1 Job seekers in July 7 Industrial investments: July survey August 1 September 1 Harmonized index of consumer prices Eurozone (Eurostat) Index for July: August 16 Index for August: September 1 8 Central government budget: statement at end of July 9 Payroll employment: final results Q-1 1 Industrial output in July 1 Balance of payments in July 1 Consumer prices: index for August Industrial trends: monthly survey for September Quarterly national accounts: final results Q-1 Job seekers in August 8 Household consumption of manufactured goods in July/August INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Consumer price index General government debt in 9 Year-on-year % change As a % of GDP Japan U.K. - USA euro zone France - 6/8 1/8 6/9 1/9 6/ U.K. France Germany Italy euro zone USA Japan Source: statistical institutes Source: Eurostat, OECD Monthly bulletin N August 1 7
8 FRENCH GOVERNMENT NEGOTIABLE DEBT OUTSTANDING - DETTE NEGOCIABLE DE L ETAT OAT au 1 juillet 1 / fungible Treasury bonds at July 1, 1 En euros CODE ISIN Euroclear France Libellé de l'emprunt / Bond Encours / Outstanding Coefficient d'indexation / indexation coefficient Valeur nominale/ face value démembré / stripped CODE ISIN Euroclear France Libellé de l'emprunt / Bond Encours / Outstanding Coefficient d'indexation / indexation coefficient Valeur nominale/ face value démembré / stripped Échéance FR187 OAT,% octobre Échéance FR771 OAT 6,% avril FR197 OATi 1,6% juillet (1) 1, FR18787 OAT % octobre Échéance FR1888 OAT % avril FR1881 OAT i % juillet (1) 1, FR18869 OAT,7% octobre FR778 OAT 8,% 6 décembre Échéance FR OAT % avril FR1889 OATi,% juillet (1) 1, FR1111 OAT % octobre Échéance FR161 OAT % avril FR111 OAT % octobre Échéance FR116 OAT,% avril FR11 OAT i 1,6% juillet (1) 1, FR11681 OAT % octobre Échéance 16 9 FR1887 OAT,% avril FR18761 OAT % octobre Échéance FR111 OAT,7% avril FR1176 OATi 1% juillet (1) 1, FR11717 OAT,% octobre Échéance FR1698 OAT % avril 18 FR16777 OAT,% octobre Échéance FR18911 OAT,% avril FR18 OATi 1,% juillet (1) 1, FR791 OAT 8,% octobre FR OAT,7% octobre FR79 OAT cap. 9,8% 1 décembre () (1) Encours OAT indexées = valeur nominale x coefficient d'indexation / indexed bonds outstanding = face value x indexation coefficient () y compris intérêts capitalisés au 1/1/9 / including coupons capitalized at 1/1/9 ; non offerte à la souscription / not open to subscription () valeur actualisée au 8//9 / actualized value at /8/9 ; non offerte à la souscription / not open to subscription OATi : OAT indexée sur l'indice français des prix à la consommation (hors tabac) / OAT indexed on the French consumer price index (excluding tobacco) OAT i : OAT indexée sur l'indice des prix à la consommation harmonisé de la zone euro (hors tabac) / OAT indexed on the eurozone harmonized index of consumer price (excluding tobacco) Échéance FR1818 OAT,% avril FR19 OAT i,% juillet 86 6 (1) 1, Échéance FR OAT,7% avril Échéance 7 FR71 OAT 8,% avril FR OAT i 1,1% juillet 8 6 (1) 1,198 Échéance FR718 OAT 8,% avril FR1891 OATi,1% juillet (1) 1, FR16698 OAT,% octobre Échéance FR711 OAT 6% octobre Échéance 6 69 FR19169 OAT,% avril 6 69 Échéance FR716 OAT zéro coupon 8 mars () 6 6 Échéance FR7118 OAT,% avril FR1861 OATi,% juillet (1) 1, Échéance FR OAT i,1% juillet (1) 1, FR1876 OAT,7% octobre Échéance FR176 OAT,7% avril Échéance FR1711 OAT % octobre Échéance FR1767 OAT i 1,8% juillet (1) 1, Échéance FR17719 OAT,% avril Échéance 1 96 FR OAT % avril Échéance 6 FR18796 OAT % avril 6 71 Total OAT / total fungible Treasury bonds Encours démembré /stripped outstanding En % des lignes démembrables As a % of strippable bonds 6, % Durée de vie moyenne Average maturity 1 ans et 9 jours 1 years and 9 days Monthly bulletin N August 1 8
9 BTAN au 1 juillet 1 Treasury notes at July 1, 1 BTF au 1 juillet 1 Treasury bills at July 1, 1 En euros En euros CODE ISIN Emprunt / Bond Encours / Outstanding Échéance FR BTAN,7% 1 septembre Échéance FR1886 BTAN % 1 janvier FR18879 BTAN,% 1 juillet FR BTAN 1,% 1 septembre Échéance 1 1 FR BTAN,7% 1 janvier FR BTAN,% 1 juillet FR11817 BTAN,7% septembre Échéance FR BTAN,7% 1 janvier FR11688 BTAN,% 1 juillet 1 16 Échéance 1 8 FR BTAN,% 1 janvier 1 78 FR1168 BTAN % 1 juillet Échéance FR BTAN,% 1 janvier 1 7 FR BTAN % 1 juillet (1) Encours BTAN indexés = valeur nominale x coefficient d'indexation / indexed bonds outstanding = face value x indexation coefficient Échéance / Maturity Encours / Outstanding BTF août BTF 1 août BTF 19 août BTF 6 août BTF septembre BTF 9 septembre BTF 16 septembre BTF septembre BTF septembre BTF 7 octobre BTF 1 octobre BTF 1 octobre BTF 8 octobre 1 69 BTF novembre BTF 18 novembre 1 8 BTF décembre BTF 16 décembre BTF décembre 1 1 BTF 1 janvier BTF 7 janvier BTF 1 février BTF 1 mars 11 8 BTF 7 avril BTF mai BTF 1 juin BTF juin 11 BTF 8 juillet Total BTAN / total Treasury notes Total BTF / total Treasury bills 87 Durée de vie moyenne des BTAN ans et 1 jours Durée de vie moyenne des BTF 11 jours Average maturity of BTANs years and 1 days Average maturity of BTFs 11 days Dette négociable de l Etat au 1 juillet 1 / French government negotiable debt at July 1, 1 Encours total / total outstanding néant / void Durée de vie moyenne 7 ans et 1 jours Average maturity 7 years and 1 days Réserve de titres de la Caisse de la dette publique au 1 juillet 1 / Securities held in reserve by Caisse de la dette publique at July 1, 1 Monthly bulletin N August 1 9
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