MONTHLY BULLETIN - N December 2006

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1 MONTHLY BULLETIN - N December 26 DEBT GENERAL DATA... 1 PRIMARY MARKET... 2 SECONDARY MARKET... 4 THE FRENCH ECONOMY... 7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS... 8 FRENCH GOVERNMENT NEGOTIABLE DEBT OUTSTANDING Bloomberg TRESOR <Go> - Reuters TRESOR - Pages Bridge Menu Available in French and English Publication manager: Benoît Coeuré Editor: Agence France Trésor DEBT GENERAL DATA French government long- and medium-term negotiable debt on November 3, 26 nominal value of each line, > 216 BTAN OAT OATi & OAT i BTAN i 2 Non-resident holdings of French government negotiable debt securities as a % of negotiable debt outstanding /2** 9/2** 1/2** 11/2** 12/2** 1/26* 2/26* 3/26* 4/26* /26* 6/26* 7/26 8/26 9/26 1/26 Source: balance of payments Note: following the revised figures of the French securities held by non-residents at the end of 2, the Banque de France has readjusted the outstanding amount related to the negotiable Government debt securities held by non-residents in 2 (**). (*) figures quarterly revised (**) figures annually revised

2 PRIMARY MARKET Auction indicative calendar BTF BTAN / index linked OAT OAT December 26 auction date 4 no auction no auction no auction settlement date January 27 auction date settlement date Feb 23 9 anticipated or delayed auctions (bank holidays, etc.) Long- and medium-term financing over the year on November 3, 26 Long and medium-term financing forecast for the year 26 (revised, State and CDP) 1. billion Cumulative realized long and medium-term financing 16.8 billion on November 3, realized BTAN realized OAT Jan. Feb. March Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. OATs and BTANs issues and cumulative total on November 3, 26 OATs and BTANs: indicative repayment schedule on November 3, 26 BTAN 2.7% 3/28 BTAN 3% 7/28 BTAN 3.% 9/28 BTAN i 1.2% 7/21 BTAN 3% 1/211 BTAN 3.% 7/211 OATi 1.6% 7/211 * OAT i 1.6% 7/21 * OAT 3% 1/21 OAT 3.2% 4/216 OAT % 1/216 OATi 1% 7/217 * OAT 4.2% 4/219 OAT i 2.2% 7/22 * OAT 3.7% 4/221 OATi 3.4% 7/229 * OAT i 3.1% 7/232 * OAT 4.7% 4/23 OAT 4% 1/238 OAT 4% 4/ issued before 26 issued in interest redemption 11/6 12/6 1/7 2/7 3/7 4/7 /7 6/7 7/7 8/7 9/7 1/7 * nominal value 2

3 m OAT and BTAN auctions November 26 OAT 1 years BTAN 2 years BTAN years OATi 1 years OAT i 1 years 1/2/216 9/12/28 7/12/211 7/2/217 # 7/2/22.% 3.% 3.% 1.% # 2.2% Auction date 11/2/26 11/16/26 11/16/26 11/16/26 # 11/16/26 Settlement date 11/7/26 11/21/26 11/21/26 11/21/26 # 11/21/26 Amount announced < 3, , > < 4, , > < 1, ,7 > Bid amount 7,26 4,89,719 2,31 # 1,73 Amount served 3,4 1,86 2, of which: NCTs before auction NCTs after auction Total issued amount 3,4 1,86 3,221 1,133 # 63 Bid-to-cover ratio # 2.7 Weighted average price 11.33% 99.64% 99.1% 93.24% # 18.4% Yield to maturity 3.74% 3.7% 3.7% 1.7% # 1.9% Indexation coefficient* * as of the settlement date BTF auctions November 26 m BTF BTF BTF BTF BTF Short term 1 month 3 month 6 month 1 year Auction date 11/6/26 11/6/26 Settlement date 11/9/26 11/9/26 Maturity 2/8/27 1/2/27 Total issued amount 2,6 1,21 Weighted average rate 3.364% 3.692% Auction date 11/13/26 11/13/26 Settlement date 11/16/26 11/16/26 Maturity 2/8/27 4/26/27 Total issued amount 2,6 1,22 Weighted average rate 3.42% 3.12% Auction date 11/2/26 11/2/26 Settlement date 11/23/26 11/23/26 Maturity 2/22/27 1/2/27 Total issued amount 2,6 1,8 Weighted average rate 3.44% 3.662% Auction date 11/27/26 11/27/26 Settlement date 11/3/26 11/3/26 Maturity 2/22/27 11/22/27 Total issued amount 1,423 1,437 Weighted average rate 3.48% 3.682% 3

4 SECONDARY MARKET French government yield curve quote at end of the month, in % structure in % OAT ownership by type of holder second quarter insurance companies credit institutions 3 4 UCITS other 2 1 yr yrs 1 years 2 years 3 years years 8 non-resident investors 1 11/2 1/26 11/ Source: Bloomberg Source: Banque de France Breakeven inflation daily quotes in % /1/4 6/1/4 9/1/4 12/1/4 3/1/ 6/1/ 9/1/ 12/1/ 3/1/6 6/1/6 9/1/6 France 1 years (1) Euro zone 1 years (2) France 3 years (3) Euro zone 3 years (4) 12/1/6 (1) difference between the yield of the OAT 4% April 213 and the yield of the OATi 2.% July 213 (2) difference between the yield of the OAT % April 212 and the yield of the OAT i 3% July 212 (3) difference between the yield of the OAT.% April 229 and the yield of the OATi 3.4% July 229 (4) difference between the yield of the OAT.7% October 232 and the yield of the OAT i 3.1% July 232 Source: Bloomberg Negotiable government debt and swaps Negotiable government debt outstanding end end end end end end October November OAT BTAN BTF Swaps outstanding Average maturity of the negotiable debt /// before swaps 6 years 6 years years years 6 years 6 years 7 years 7 years 64 days 47 days 343 days 297 days 79 days 267 days 9 days 31 days after swaps /// years years years 6 years 6 years 7 years 7 years /// 38 days 266 days 23 days 33 days 228 days 29 days 2 days 4

5 Turnover on the most liquid OATs and the 4 most liquid BTANs daily average () Primary dealers, monthly fixed-rate repo transactions OAT BTAN days 4-11 days 12-3 days > 3 days / 12/ 1/6 2/6 3/6 4/6 /6 6/6 7/6 8/6 9/6 1/6 11/6 11/4 1/ 3/ / 7/ 9/ 11/ 1/6 3/6 /6 7/6 9/6 Source: Euroclear France Source: primary dealers Primary dealers, repo outstanding at end of month /4 1/ 3/ / 7/ 9/ 11/ 1/6 3/6 /6 7/6 9/6 fixed-rate repos floating-rate repos others Source: primary dealers Focus Mortgage interest rates in France remain at record lows (%) 1 9 Fixed rate housing loan Variable rate housing loan Source: Banque de France

TRIBUNE French housing market Set for a soft landing After a period of rapid price increase, when house prices rose13% since the trough in 1997, 1%Y/Y in 24 and 2 on average, house prices have

6 TRIBUNE French housing market Set for a soft landing After a period of rapid price increase, when house prices rose13% since the trough in 1997, 1%Y/Y in 24 and 2 on average, house prices have started decelerating. FNAIM a real estate agent that accounts for about 3% of sales in the housing market estimates that prices increased by only.1% Q/Q or 4.% Y/Y (vs. 17.% Y/Y in Q3 4) in Q3 6. Yet, the housing market appears to be holding up, as both sales turnover and mortgage credit growth continue to rise at levels in line with those observed over the past few years. Growth in sales turnover increased by about 3% in the year until October 26, ( 3.8% in October 2); mortgage credit rose 13% Y/Y in Q2 6, up from 12% Y/Y in Q2, and in Q2 6 the Q/Q growth rate reached 13.8% up from 13.7% in Q1. Since 24, cyclical and structural factors have supported the French housing market. The cyclical factors include low interest rates, supportive fiscal measures and government support to mortgage credits; most prominent structural factors are a low rate of housing ownership, demographic changes and increased fl exibility in the mortgage credit market. Mortgage rates have been low by historical standard and despite ECB hiking rates, mortgage rates remain low as the yield on the 1 yr rate remains around 4% to 4.1%. Other cyclical factors will be less supportive in the short to medium term. The fiscal measures, Loi Perissol, Loi Besson and Loi Robien I and II, have encouraged investors to buy property for renting out, but these schemes have become less and less generous so that it seems reasonable to believe that they will fade out in the short to medium term. As well, the support provided by the zero interest rate credit provided by the government for low income people, is likely to fade away as the take up reaches its maximum. The main structural factors which have supported the housing market in France are likely to persist in the medium term. The low proportion of house ownership in France compared to other European countries implies a continuing appetite for housing purchase, especially as French households view home ownership as an insurance against reduced pensions. Demographics, with population and the number of households growing fast (the number of households is increasing faster than the population growth rate at 1.24% per annum on average) provides additional demand for housing. Likewise, the mortgage market has become more flexible, with the repayment period of mortgage loans lengthening from 1. years on average in 1991 to 19.7 in September 26, the number of variable rate mortgages increasing (to about 3% of the existing stock of mortgages), and monthly repayment more often higher than 3% of the mortgagor s income. Overall, cyclical factors are becoming less supportive but demographics, low rate of ownership and scope for further mortgage market deregulation suggest that housing demand is likely to remain strong in the medium term. Market analysis Laurence Boone Barclays Capital NB: this Agence France Trésor forum offers economists an opportunity to express their personal opinion. Thus, the above article strictly reflects the author s view, and should not be construed as expressing the viewpoints of Agence France Trésor or the Ministry of the Econom y, Finance and Industry. 6

7 THE FRENCH ECONOMY Macro-economic forecast Recent economic indicators Real growth rate as a % Industrial output*, year-on-year -.7% 9/26 Household consumption*, year-on-year 4.2% 1/26 French GDP 1.2 < 2-2. > < 2-2. > Unemployment rate (ILO) 8.8% 1/26 Euro zone GDP Consumer prices, year-on-year Household consumption all items 1.1% 1/26 Business investment all items excluding tobacco 1.1% 1/26 Trade balance, fob-fob, sa -1.3 EUR bn 9/26 Exports " " -2.9 EUR bn 8/26 Imports Current account balance, sa -2.1 EUR bn 9/26 Consumer prices " " -3.9 EUR bn 8/26 (year-on-year) 1-year constant maturity rate (TEC1) 3.7% 11/3/26 3-month interest rate (Euribor) 3.636% 11/3/26 EUR / USD /3/26 EUR / JPY /3/26 Source: Ministry of the Economy, Finance and Industry, Draft budget bill 27 *manufactured goods Source: Insee; Ministry of the Economy, Finance and Industry; Banque de France Gross domestic product at 2 prices Variation in % quarterly (left-hand scale) year on year (right-hand scale) Euro exchange rate Daily quotes Euro / dollar (left-hand scale) 1. Euro / yen (right-hand scale) /1/ 3/1/6 6/1/6 9/1/6 12/1/6 Source: Insee, quarterly national accounts Source: European Central Bank Government budget monthly position end-of-october level General budget balance revenue expenditure Balance of special Treasury accounts General budget outturn Source: Ministry of the Economy, Finance and Industry for more information: Public finance: general government deficit and debt As a % of GDP Source: according to Maastricht Treaty, Insee and Ministry of the Economy, Finance and Industry deficit (left-hand scale) debt (right-hand scale)

8 Timetable for the release of French economic indicators December 26 January 27 7 Central government budget: statement at end of October Household confidence survey: December survey 7 Gross foreign exchange reserves in November 8 Gross foreign exchange reserves in December 11 Industrial output in October 1 Central government budget: statement at end of November 12 Foreign trade in October 1 Industrial output in November 13 Consumer prices: index for November 1 Foreign trade in November 14 Payroll employment: final results Q Cost-of-construction: index Q Wages: final results Q Consumer prices: index for December 1 Balance of payments in October 18 Balance of payments in November 22 National quarterly accounts: first results Q Household consumption of manufactured goods in December 22 Household consumption of manufactured goods in November 2 Industrial trends: monthly survey for January 22 Industrial trends: monthly survey for December 3 Industrial trends: quaterly survey for January 22 Industrial producer prices: November index 3 New building starts in December 27 New building starts in November 31 Household confidence survey: January survey 29 Net foreign exchange reserves in November 31 I ndustrial producer prices: December index 29 Job seekers in November 31 Job seekers in December 31 Net foreign exchange reserves in December Harmonized index of consumer prices Eurozone (Eurostat) Index for November: December 1 Index for December: January 17 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Consumer price index General government debt in 2 Year-on-year % change As a % of GDP Japan U.K. USA euro zone France /4 4/ 1/ 4/6 1/6. U.K. France Germany Italy euro zone USA Japan Source: statistical institutes Source: Eurostat, OECD 8

9 FRENCH GOVERNMENT NEGOTIABLE DEBT OUTSTANDING OAT au 3 novembre 26 / fungible Treasury bonds at November 3, 26 En euros CODE ISIN Euroclear France Libellé de l'emprunt / Bond Encours / Outstanding Échéance DETTE NEGOCIABLE DE L ETAT Coefficient d'indexation / Valeur nominale/ démembré indexation coefficient face value / stripped FR774 OAT,% 2 avril FR1132 I OAT i 1,6% 2 juillet (1) 1, FR79 OAT,% 2 octobre FR OAT 3% 2 octobre Échéance Échéance FR OAT 3,2% 2 avril FR7632 OAT,2% 2 avril FR OAT % 2 octobre FR766 OAT 8,% 2 octobre É chéance Échéance FR I OATi 1% 2 juillet (1) 1, FR7673 V OAT TEC1 2 janvier Échéance FR71432 OAT 4% 2 avril FR OAT 4,2% 2 avril FR7921 OAT 8,% 2 octobre FR71424 I OATi 3% 2 juillet (1) 1, FR794 C ETAT 9,82% 31 décembre (2) FR OAT 4% 2 octobre Échéance Échéance FR19 I OAT i 2,2% 2 juillet (1) 1, FR18663 OAT,% 2 avril Échéance FR OAT 3,7% 2 avril FR18723 OAT,% 2 octobre Échéance Échéance FR7144 OAT 8,2% 2 avril FR7731 OAT 6,% 2 avril Échéance FR19437 I OATi 1,6% 2 juillet (1) 1, FR718 OAT 8,% 2 avril FR OAT % 2 octobre FR711 OAT 6% 2 octobre Échéance Échéance FR OAT % 2 avril FR71226 C OAT zéro coupon 28 mars (3) FR18813 I OAT i 3% 2 juillet (1) 1, Échéance FR18869 OAT 4,7% 2 octobre FR71218 OAT,% 2 avril FR778 OAT 8,% 26 décembre CODE ISIN Euroclear France Libellé de l'emprunt / Bond Encours / Outstanding Échéance FR OAT 3,% 2 avril Échéance Échéance Échéance FR I OAT i 3,1% 2 juillet (1) 1, FR OAT 4% 2 avril FR18763 OAT,7% 2 octobre FR1889 I OATi 2,% 2 juillet (1) 1, Échéance FR11113 OAT 4% 2 octobre FR OAT 4,7% 2 avril Échéance Échéance FR OAT 4% 2 octobre FR OAT 4% 2 avril Échéance FR11122 OAT 4% 2 octobre FR OAT 4% 2 avril Coefficient d'indexation / indexation coefficient Valeur nom inale/ face value FR I OATi 3,4% 2 juillet (1) 1, démembré / stripped (1) Encours OAT indexées = valeur nominale x coefficient d'indexation / indexed bonds outstanding = face value x indexation coefficient (2) y compris intérêts capitalisés au 31/12/2 / including coupons capitalized at 12/31/2 ; non offerte à la souscription / not open to subscription (3) valeur actualisée au 31/3/26 / actualized value at 3/31/26 ; non offerte à la souscriptio n / not open to subscription OATi : OAT indexée sur l'indice français des prix à la consommation (hors tabac) / OAT indexed on the French consumer price index (excluding tobacco) OAT i : OAT indexée sur l'indice des prix à la consommation harmonisé de la zone euro (hors tabac) / OAT indexed on the eurozone harmonized index of consumer price (excluding tobacco) TEC 1 : taux de l'échéance constante à 1 ans / yield of 1-year constant maturity Treasury Total OAT / total fungible Treasury bonds Encours démembré /stripped outstanding En % des lignes démembrables As a % of strippable bonds 9,78 % Durée de vie moyenne Average maturity 9 ans et 21 jours 9 years and 21 days 9

10 BTAN au 3 novembre 26 Treasury notes at November 3, 26 BTF au 3 novembre 26 Treasury bills at November 3, 26 En euros CODE ISIN Emprunt / Bond Encours / Outstanding Échéance FR BTAN 3,7% 12 janvier FR BTAN 2,2% 12 mars FR BTAN 4,7% 12 juillet Échéance FR BTAN 3,% 12 janvier FR BTAN 2,7% 12 mars FR BTAN 3% 12 juillet FR BTAN 3,% 12 septembre Échéance FR BTAN 3,% 12 janvier FR BTAN 3,% 12 juillet Coefficient d'indexation / indexation coefficient Valeur nominale / face value Échéance FR BTAN 3% 12 janvier FR BTAN 2,% 12 juillet FR18664 I BTAN i 1,2% 2 juillet (1) 1, Échéance FR BTAN 3% 12 janvier FR BTAN 3,% 12 juillet En euros Échéance / Maturity Encours / Outstanding BTF 7 décembre BTF 14 décembre BTF 21 décembre BTF 28 décembre BTF 11 janvier BTF 18 janvier BTF 2 janvier BTF 1 février BTF 8 février BTF 1 février BTF 22 février BTF 1 mars BTF 1 mars BTF 26 avril BTF 1 mai BTF juillet BTF 2 août BTF 27 septembre BTF 2 octobre BTF 22 novembre Total BTAN / total Treasury notes Total BTF / total Treasury bills Durée de vie moyenne des BTAN 2 ans et 63 jours Durée de vie moyenne des BTF 118 jours Average maturity of BTANs 2 years and 63 days Average maturity of BTFs 118 days Dette négociable de l Etat au 3 novembre 26 / French government negotiable debt at November 3, 26 Encours total / total outstanding néant / void Durée de vie moyenne 7 ans et 31 jours Average maturity 7 years and 31 days Réserve de titres de la Caisse de la dette publique au 3 novembre 26/ Securities held in reserve by Caisse de la dette publique at November 3, 26 1

MONTHLY BULLETIN - N 243 August 2010

MONTHLY BULLETIN - N 243 August 2010 MONTHLY BULLETIN - N August 1 DEBT GENERAL DATA... 1 PRIMARY MARKET... SECONDARY MARKET... THE FRENCH ECONOMY... 6 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS... 7 FRENCH GOVERNMENT NEGOTIABLE DEBT OUTSTANDING... 8 http://www.aft.gouv.fr