MONTHLY BULLETIN - N January 2006

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1 MONTHLY BULLETIN - N January 26 DEBT GENERAL DATA... 1 PRIMARY MARKET... 2 SECONDARY MARKET... 4 THE FRENCH ECONOMY... 7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS... 8 FRENCH GOVERNMENT NEGOTIABLE DEBT OUTSTANDING Bloomberg TRESOR <Go> - Reuters TRESOR - Pages Bridge Menu Available in French and English Publication manager: Bertrand de Mazières Editor: Agence France Trésor DEBT GENERAL DATA French government long- and medium-term negotiable debt on December 31, 2 nominal value of each line, Non-resident holdings of French government negotiable debt securities as a % of negotiable debt outstanding > 21 BTAN OAT OATi & OAT i /24** 12/24** 1/2* 2/2* 3/2* 4/2* /2* 6/2* 7/2* 8/2* 9/2* 1/2 11/2 Source: balance of payments Note: following the revised figures of the French securities held by non-residents at the end of 24, the Banque de France has readjusted the outstanding amount related to the negotiable Government debt securities held by non-residents in 23 and has reevaluated the stock for 24 (**). (*) figures quarterly revised (**) figures annually revised

2 PRIMARY MARKET Auction indicative calendar January 26 February 26 BTF BTAN / index linked OAT OAT auction date settlement date Feb 24 1 auction date settlement date Mar 21 7 anticipated or delayed auctions (bank holidays, etc.) Long- and medium-term financing over the year on December 31, forecast 61. realized OAT BTAN TOTAL L & M T OATs and BTANs issues and cumulative total on December 31, 2 OATs and BTANs: indicative repayment schedule on December 31, 2 BTAN 3.7% 1/27 BTAN 2.2% 3/27 BTAN 3.% 1/28 BTAN 2.7% 3/28 BTAN 3% 1/21 BTAN 2,% 7/21 OATi 1.6% 7/211 * OATi 2.% 7/213 * OAT 4% 1/214 OAT 3.% 4/21 OAT i 1.6% 7/21 * OAT 3% 1/21 OATi 1% 7/217 * OAT i 2.2% 7/22 * OAT 3.7% 4/221 OATi 3.4% 7/229* OAT i 3.1% 7/232 * OAT 4.7% 4/23 OAT 4% 4/ issued before 2 issued in interest redemption 12/ 1/6 2/6 3/6 4/6 /6 6/6 7/6 8/6 9/6 1/6 11/6 * nominal value 2

3 m OAT and BTAN auctions December 2 No auction in December BTF auctions December 2 m BTF BTF BTF BTF 1 month 3 month 6 month 1 year Auction date 12//2 12//2 Settlement date 12/8/2 12/8/2 Maturity 3/9/26 11/23/26 Total issued amount 2,32 2, Weighted average rate #VALEUR! 2.313% #VALEUR! 2.78% Auction date 12/12/2 12/12/2 Settlement date 12/1/2 12/1/2 Maturity 3/9/26 /24/26 Total issued amount 2,7 1,94 Weighted average rate #VALEUR! 2.38% 2.436% #VALEUR! Auction date 12/19/2 12/19/2 Settlement date 12/22/2 12/22/2 Maturity 3/23/26 12/21/26 Total issued amount 2,2 1,72 Weighted average rate #VALEUR! 2.3% # #VALEUR! # 2.71% Auction date 12/27/2 Settlement date 12/29/2 Maturity 3/23/26 Total issued amount 2,1 Weighted average rate #VALEUR! 2.39% #VALEUR! #VALEUR! 3

4 SECONDARY MARKET French government yield curve quote at end of the month, in % structure in % OAT ownership by type of holder third quarter insurance companies credit institutions 3 2 UCITS other non-resident investors 2 1 yr yrs 1 years 2 years 3 years years /24 11/2 12/2 2 9 Source: Bloomberg Source: Banque de France Breakeven inflation daily quotes in % /1/3 3/1/4 6/1/4 9/1/4 12/1/4 3/1/ 6/1/ 9/1/ 12/1/ France 1 years (1) Euro zone 1 years (2) France 3 years (3) Euro zone 3 years (4) (1) difference between the yield of the OAT 4% April 213 and the yield of the OATi 2.% July 213 (2) difference between the yield of the OAT % April 212 and the yield of the OAT i 3% July 212 (3) difference between the yield of the OAT.% April 229 and the yield of the OATi 3.4% July 229 (4) difference between the yield of the OAT.7% October 232 and the yield of the OAT i 3.1% July 232 Source: Bloomberg Negotiable government debt and swaps end end end end end November December Negotiable government debt outstanding OAT BTAN BTF Swaps outstanding Average maturity of the negotiable debt /// before swaps 6 years 6 years years years 6 years 6 years 6 years 64 days 47 days 343 days 297 days 79 days 298 days 267 days after swaps /// years years years 6 years 6 years 6 years /// 38 days 266 days 23 days 33 days 28 days 228 days 4

5 Turnover on the most liquid OATs and the 4 most liquid BTANs daily average () Primary dealers, monthly fixed-rate repo transactions 4 4 OAT BTAN days 4-11 days 12-3 days > 3 days /4 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ / 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 1/ 11/ 12/ 11/4 12/4 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ / 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 1/ 11/ Source: Euroclear France Source: primary dealers Primary dealers, repo outstanding at end of month /4 12/4 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ / 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 1/ 11/ fixed-rate repos floating-rate repos others Source: primary dealers Focus Trends in Euro/dollar parity shaped by ECB s procrastination EUR/USD exchange rate (monthly average) - L - Monetary rate spread: ECB - FED - R - Natexis Banques Populaires' forecasts for January 26 to December 26 D b Source: Natexis Banque Populaire, Datastream

6 TRIBUNE Towards a fresh drop in the euro/dollar rate in 26? Approximately one year ago, the euro was worth 1.3 dollars and we were among the first to forecast a significant fall in the single currency s value for 2. Now we see that the depreciation has, in fact, occurred, but fresh bullish speculation seems to be taking hold. Be that as it may, after rebounding at the start of the year, in our opinion, the euro should gradually return to its downward path. There are a number of reasons for this. First, the euro s decline in 2 was attributable to four main factors. First, markets finally factored in lacklustre growth in the eurozone and the damage that an excessively strong euro could wreak in the region. Second, investors understood all too well that US growth would remain robust. Third, they also factored in that, in addition to structurally anaemic growth, the eurozone and its member states would remain politically fragile (witness the No vote in the referenda on the European Constitution held in France and the Netherlands). However, these developments might not have been enough to trigger a weakening of the euro, without the presence of a fourth factor, which constituted our principal argument in favour of euro depreciation exactly a year ago, i.e. the sharp increase in the interest-rate differential between the US and the eurozone of up to 2 basis points on 1 November. For 26, despite the growth differentials and credibility gaps that are likely to remain to the dollar s advantage, the key to the greenback s trend should lie mainly in changes in the interest-rate differential between the Fed and the ECB. For Q1 26, we unfortunately anticipate an extension of the recent uptrend in the euro. Given the cyclical improvement in eurozone economic activity which, according to the ECB s monetarist orthodoxy, could trigger a slight surge in inflation, the ECB is likely to raise its refi rate by 2 bp as of February (March at the latest), followed by a further hike in April or May. At the same time, underscoring the low inflationary risk in the US and the consolidation of US economic growth at around its structural pace of 3.%, the Fed is likely to mark a pause in its monetary tightening policy. According to us, the Fed may hike its Fed funds rate by just 2 bp in Q1. In other words, the interest-rate differential between the Fed and the ECB is set to narrow slightly, prompting the markets to favour a rise in the euro against the dollar. The euro is likely to fluctuate around the 1.22 dollar threshold until the Spring. Further out, however, eurozone indicators are set to be penalised by the strength of the euro, with growth slowing, proving that, once again, the ECB has misread the situation, whilst the US economy remains buoyant, prompting the Fed to raise its interest rate to % by next Autumn. Against this backdrop, and even if the ECB over-reacts by raising its refi rate to 3% by next Autumn, the interest-rate differential should move back to 2 basis points, enabling the euro/dollar parity to move back down as of the end of Spring. According to our forecasts, the parity should stand at around 1.1 out to Autumn 26. This is the eurozone s last chance to reach, or even exceed, a growth rate of 2% in 26. Let us cross our fingers and hope that the ECB does not, yet again, spoil the eurozone s chances. Head of Economic Research Marc Touati Natexis Banques Populaires NB: this Agence France Trésor forum offers economists an opportunity to express their personal opinion. Thus, the above article strictly reflects the author s view, and should not be construed as expressing the viewpoints of Agence France Trésor or the Ministry of the Economy, Finance and Industry. 6

7 THE FRENCH ECONOMY Macro-economic forecast Real growth rate as a % French GDP 2.3 < > < 2-2. > Euro zone GDP Household consumption Business investment Exports Imports Consumer prices (year-on-year) Recent economic indicators Industrial output*, year-on-year -1.7% 1/2 Household consumption*, year-on-year 3.2% 11/2 Unemployment rate (ILO) 9.6% 11/2 Consumer prices, year-on-year all items 1.6% 11/2 all items excluding tobacco 1.6% 11/2 Trade balance, fob-fob, sa -2.4 EUR bn 1/2 " " -1.7 EUR bn 9/2 Current account balance, sa -3.4 EUR bn 1/2 " " -2.3 EUR bn 9/2 1-year interest rate (TEC1) 3.3% 12/3/2 3-month interest rate (Euribor) 2.488% 12/3/2 EUR / USD /3/2 EUR / JPY /3/2 Source: 26 Budget Bill *manufactured goods Source: Insee ; Ministry of the Economy, Finance and Industry ; Banque de France Gross domestic product at 199 prices Variation in % quarterly (left-hand scale) year on year (right-hand scale) Euro exchange rate Daily quotes Euro / dollar (left-hand scale) 1. Euro / yen (right-hand scale) /1/ 4/1/ 7/1/ 1/1/ 1/1/6 Source: Insee, quarterly national accounts Source: European Central Bank Government budget monthly position end-of-november level General budget balance revenue expenditure Balance of special Treasury accounts General budget outturn Public finance: general government deficit and debt As a % of GDP deficit (left-hand scale) debt (right-hand scale) Source: Ministry of the Economy, Finance and Industry for more information: Source: according to Maastricht Treaty, Insee and Ministry of the Economy, Finance and Industry 7

8 Timetable for the release of French economic indicators January 26 February 26 3 Quarterly national accounts: final results Q3-2 7 Gross foreign exchange reserves in January Household confidence survey: December survey 1 Industrial output in December 6 Gross foreign exchange reserves in December 1 Foreign trade in December 1 Central government budget: statement at end of November 14 Central government budget: statement at end of December 1 Industrial output in November 17 Industrial Investments: January survey 1 Cost-of-construction: index Q Payroll employment: provisional results Q Foreign trade in November 17 Wages: provisional statistics Q Consumer prices: index for December 17 Balance of payments in December 18 Balance of payments in November 21 National quarterly accounts: first results Q4-2 2 Household consumption of manufactured goods in December 21 Consumer prices: index for January 2 Industrial trends: monthly survey for January 22 Household consumption of manufactured goods in January 3 Industrial trends: quaterly survey for January 22 Industrial trends: February survey 3 Household confidence survey: January survey 28 Industrial producer prices: January index 31 New building starts in December 28 Job seekers in January 31 Industrial producer prices: December index 28 New building starts in January 31 Job seekers in December 28 Household confidence survey: February survey 31 Net foreign exchange reserves in December 28 Net foreign exchange reserves in January Harmonized index of consumer prices Eurozone (Eurostat) Index for December: January 19 Index for January: February 28 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Consumer price index General government debt in 24 Year-on-year % change As a % of GDP Japan U.K. USA euro zone France /3 4/4 1/4 4/ 1/ U.K. France Germany Italy euro zone USA Japan Source: statistical institutes Source: Eurostat, OECD 8

9 FRENCH GOVERNMENT NEGOTIABLE DEBT OUTSTANDING - DETTE NEGOCIABLE DE L ETAT OAT au 31 décembre 2 / fungible Treasury bonds at December 31, 2 CODE ISIN Euroclear France Libellé de l'emprunt / Bond Encours / Outstanding Coefficient d'indexation / indexation coefficient Valeur nominale/ face value démembré / stripped Échéance FR7491 OAT 7,2% 2 avril FR79 OAT 7% 2 avril FR733 OAT 6,% 2 octobre FR741 V OAT TEC1 2 octobre Échéance FR774 OAT,% 2 avril FR79 OAT,% 2 octobre Échéance FR7632 OAT,2% 2 avril FR766 OAT 8,% 2 octobre Échéance FR7673 V OAT TEC1 2 janvier FR71432 OAT 4% 2 avril FR71424 I OATi 3% 2 juillet (1) 1, FR OAT 4% 2 octobre Échéance FR18663 OAT,% 2 avril FR18723 OAT,% 2 octobre Échéance FR7731 OAT 6,% 2 avril FR19437 I OATi 1,6% 2 juillet (1) 1, FR OAT % 2 octobre Échéance FR OAT % 2 avril FR18813 I OAT i 3% 2 juillet (1) 1, FR18869 OAT 4,7% 2 octobre FR778 OAT 8,% 26 décembre Échéance FR OAT 4% 2 avril FR1889 I OATi 2,% 2 juillet (1) 1, FR12236 I OATi 2,% 2 juillet 213 août (1) 1,616 1 FR I OATi 2,% 2 juillet 213 sept (1) 1, FR I OATi 2,% 2 juillet 213 oct (1) 1, FR12323 I OATi 2,% 2 juillet 213 nov (1) 1, FR I OATi 2,% 2 juillet 213 déc (1) 1, FR11113 OAT 4% 2 octobre Échéance FR OAT 4% 2 avril FR11122 OAT 4% 2 octobre CODE ISIN Euroclear France Libellé de l'emprunt / Bond Encours / Outstanding Coefficient d'indexation / indexation coefficient Valeur nominale/ face value En euros démembré / stripped Échéance FR OAT 3,% 2 avril FR1197 OAT 3,% 2 avril 21 mai FR OAT 3,% 2 avril 21 juin FR OAT 3,% 2 avril 21 juillet FR12234 OAT 3,% 2 avril 21 août FR OAT 3,% 2 avril 21 sept FR OAT 3,% 2 avril 21 oct FR12319 OAT 3,% 2 avril 21 nov FR OAT 3,% 2 avril 21 déc FR1132 I OAT i 1,6% 2 juillet (1) 1, FR OAT 3% 2 octobre Échéance FR OAT % 2 octobre Échéance FR I OATi 1% 2 juillet (1) 1, Échéance FR18911 OAT 4,2% 2 avril FR7921 OAT 8,% 2 octobre FR794 C ETAT 9,82% 31 décembre (2) Échéance FR19 I OAT i 2,2% 2 juillet (1) 1, Échéance FR OAT 3,7% 2 avril Échéance FR7144 OAT 8,2% 2 avril Échéance FR718 OAT 8,% 2 avril Échéance FR711 OAT 6% 2 octobre Échéance FR71226 C OAT zéro coupon 28 mars (3) Échéance FR71218 OAT,% 2 avril FR I OATi 3,4% 2 juillet (1) 1, Échéance FR I OAT i 3,1% 2 juillet (1) 1, FR18763 OAT,7% 2 octobre Échéance FR176 OAT 4,7% 2 avril Échéance FR OAT 4% 2 avril (1) Encours OAT indexées = valeur nominale x coefficient d'indexation / indexed bonds outstanding = face value x indexation coefficient (2) y compris intérêts capitalisés au 31/12/2 / including coupons capitalized at 12/31/2 ; non offerte à la souscription / not open to subscription (3) valeur actualisée au 28/3/2 / actualized value at 3/28/2 ; non offerte à la souscription / not open to subscription OATi : OAT indexée sur l'indice français des prix à la consommation (hors tabac) / OAT indexed on the French consumer price index (excluding tobacco) OAT i : OAT indexée sur l'indice des prix à la consommation harmonisé de la zone euro (hors tabac) / OAT indexed on the eurozone harmonized index of consumer price (excluding tobacco) TEC 1 : taux de l'échéance constante à 1 ans / yield of 1-year constant maturity Treasury Total OAT / total fungible Treasury bonds Encours démembré /stripped outstanding En % des lignes démembrables As a % of strippable bonds 1,6% Durée de vie moyenne Average maturity 9 ans et 8 jours 9 years and 8 days 9

10 BTAN au 31 décembre 2 Treasury notes at December 31, 2 BTF au 31 décembre 2 Treasury bills at December 31, 2 En euros CODE ISIN Emprunt / Bond Encours / Outstanding Échéance FR BTAN % 12 janvier FR BTAN 2,2% 12 mars FR BTAN 4,% 12 juillet Échéance FR BTAN 3,7% 12 janvier FR BTAN 2,2% 12 mars FR BTAN 4,7% 12 juillet Échéance FR BTAN 3,% 12 janvier FR BTAN 2,7% 12 mars FR BTAN 3% 12 juillet Échéance FR BTAN 3,% 12 janvier FR BTAN 3,% 12 juillet Échéance FR BTAN 3% 12 janvier FR BTAN 2,% 12 juillet Échéance / Maturity Encours / Outstanding En euros BTF janvier BTF 12 janvier BTF 19 janvier BTF 26 janvier BTF 2 février BTF 9 février BTF 16 février BTF 23 février BTF 2 mars BTF 9 mars BTF 16 mars BTF 23 mars BTF 3 mars BTF 13 avril BTF 27 avril BTF 11 mai BTF 24 mai BTF 8 juin BTF 6 juillet BTF 3 août BTF 31 août BTF 28 septembre BTF 26 octobre BTF 23 novembre BTF 21 décembre Total BTAN / total Treasury notes Total BTF / total Treasury bills Durée de vie moyenne des BTAN 2 ans et 3 jours Durée de vie moyenne des BTF 12 jours Average maturity of BTANs 2 years and 3 days Average maturity of BTFs 12 days Dette négociable de l Etat au 31 décembre 2 / French government negotiable debt at December 31, 2 Encours total / total outstanding néant / void Durée de vie moyenne 6 ans et 267 jours Average maturity 6 years and 267 days Réserve de titres de la Caisse de la dette publique au 31 décembre 2/ Securities held in reserve by Caisse de la dette publique at December 31, 2 1

MONTHLY BULLETIN - N 243 August 2010

MONTHLY BULLETIN - N 243 August 2010 MONTHLY BULLETIN - N August 1 DEBT GENERAL DATA... 1 PRIMARY MARKET... SECONDARY MARKET... THE FRENCH ECONOMY... 6 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS... 7 FRENCH GOVERNMENT NEGOTIABLE DEBT OUTSTANDING... 8 http://www.aft.gouv.fr