CENTRAL BANK POLICY RATE

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1 CENTRAL BANK POLICY RATE 28 Oct 2017 Íslandsbanki Research Summary Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on October We expect neutral forward guidance Political uncertainty and rising breakeven inflation rate outweigh disinflation We expect a rate cut of 0.25% in 2018 Policy rate to remain unchanged for the remainder of the forecast horizon (through end-2019) Central Bank policy rate decisions Proposed For Against Preferred another decision Result Policy rate Jun 16 Unch. 5/5 0 0 Unch Aug /5 2(-25) Oct 16 Unch. 5/5 0 0 Unch Nov 16 Unch. 3/5 2(-25) 0 Unch Dec /5 1(unch) Feb 17 Unch. 5/5 0 0 Unch Mar 17 Unch. 5/5 0 0 Unch May / Jun /5 0 2 (-50) Aug 17 Unch. 5/5 0 1 (-25) Unch..50 Oct 17 Unch. Unch..50 Our forecast: unchanged policy rate on October We expect the Central Bank (CBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to decide to hold the policy rate unchanged on October, the next announcement date. Increased political uncertainty and the rise in the breakeven inflation rate in the bond market will more than offset disinflation, in our opinion. At the same time, there is a need for a relatively tight monetary stance, as the economy is buoyant at present, wages and house prices have risen swiftly, and there is considerable uncertainty about both the fiscal stance and the labour market in the coming term. Even so, the doves in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will still be able to find arguments in favour of a rate cut. Among the possible grounds for a reduction are inflation, which is more than a percentage point below the CBI s 2.5% inflation target; inflation expectations, which have remained moderate; and the output gap, which will may well turn out narrower in the coming term than previously thought. One MPC member would have preferred to lower the policy rate in August, although the Committee ultimately decided unanimously to keep it unchanged. As a result, the possibility of a small rate cut late this year cannot be excluded if inflation remains markedly below the target. Arguments for a higher policy rate Arguments for a lower policy rate Increased political uncertainty Rise in breakeven rate Labour market tension Rapid rise in house prices Outlook for rising inflation ahead Need for continued tight monetary stance Unexpected dip in inflation in September Inflation expectations close to target despite ISK depreciation Prospect of narrower output gap The MPC s forward guidance will presumably remain neutral, as it has been in the recent term, but the experience of recent quarters tells us that forward guidance has relatively limited informational value when the monetary stance is close to the level deemed appropriate by the Committee. That said, it is possible that the MPC will signal the possibility of a rate cut if inflation should decline further in the next few months. 1

2 Dramatic increase in political uncertainty The radical change in the political environment, with the collapse of the Government and the decision to hold elections on 28 October, hardly need be mentioned. Uncertainty about the fiscal stance and the overall political landscape has often put the MPC out of joint, and we expect it to do so this time as well. The uncertainty about the labour market over the coming winter only compounds the problem, and a loose fiscal stance and excessive wage increases could unsettle the economy quite a bit if both materialise. Slight ISK depreciation since last interest rate decision The exchange rate is now about the same as at the time of the August interest rate decision. At that time (22 August), the trade-weighted exchange rate index measured 163. points. On Thursday 28 September, it was 16.9, meaning that the ISK has depreciated by 1.5% in trade-weighted terms in the interim. Furthermore, according to the most recent figures, It is nearly 3% weaker than the CBI projected for the September-December period in the last issue of Monetary Bulletin. 195 ISK exchange rate index, and recent CBI forecasts , ,8 162, , , Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 ISK index Aug-17: Forecast for 2017 Aug-16: Assumption for Nov-16: Forecast for 2017 Feb-17: Forecast for 2017 May-17: Forecast for 2017 Source: Central Bank of Iceland 16,9 Given the volatility of the ISK in recent weeks, it is not yet clear whether the CBI s August forecast will materialise, as the slide in the exchange rate appears to have eased in the past few weeks. Most likely, the MPC will not express a strong opinion on whether exchange rate developments will call for a higher or lower policy rate in the near term. Signs of weaker GDP growth so far this year Since the CBI s last forecast, published in August, GDP figures for Q2/2017 have been released. GDP growth measured.3% during the first half of the year, as opposed to last year s average of 7.2%. H1 growth was also below the CBI s last forecast for 2017 as a whole (5.2%). GDP, real change and contribution of subitems (%) , 8,5 2,8 2, Imports Exports Inventory chg. Investment Source: Statistics Iceland and ISB Research forecast 2

3 We project GDP growth for 2017 as a whole at.5%, somewhat below the CBI s August forecast. Furthermore, we expect 2018 growth to measure 2.8%, as opposed to the CBI s forecast of 3.3%. If our forecast materialises, the output gap will be markedly narrow in coming quarters than the CBI projected in August. Whether the MPC will share our opinion is another matter, however, and it could choose to rely on the CBI s August forecast until November, when the next Monetary Bulletin is published. Inflation and inflation expectations still close to target The breakeven inflation rate in the bond market, measured in terms of the spread between indexed and nominal bond market interest rates, has risen somewhat since the last policy rate decision. The five-year breakeven rate has risen from 2.5% to 2.6% and the ten-year rate from 2.9% to 3.1%. It rose considerably higher for a time but has reversed again in the wake of September s modest inflation figures, and it still reflects inflation expectations broadly in line with the CBI s inflation target. 6,0% Inflation premia in the fixed income market 5,0%,0% 3,0% 2,0% CBI inflation target 1,0% 0,0% Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 year 7 year 10 year Inflation measured 1.7% in Q3, slightly below the CBI's August forecast of 1.8%, and it measured 1.% in September. Inflation has therefore tapered off since the CBI s August interest rate decision (it was 1.8% according to the July CPI measurement). The monetary stance has therefore tightened somewhat in terms of the spread between the effective policy rate and past inflation. In terms of developments in the breakeven inflation rate in the market, however, the monetary stance has eased somewhat over this period.,0 Latest inflation forecasts of CBI and Islandsbanki Research (%) 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 CBI inflation target 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, Inflation CBI Aug-17 ISB Research Sept 17 Source: Central Bank of Iceland, Statistics Iceland and ISB Research 3

4 The CBI will not publish a new inflation forecast this time. According to its August forecast, inflation will rise in 2018, overtaking the target at mid-year. Our preliminary forecast, which takes account of September inflation figures, assumes that inflation will rise somewhat faster than the CBI projects but will be about the same after mid If our forecast materialises, it entails a gradually more accommodative monetary stance as the winter progresses. Broadly unchanged interest rate differential with abroad A comparison of the most recent figures and those from the time of the last interest rate decision shows that the long-term interest rate differential with abroad is more or less unchanged. The spread actually widened markedly in the wake of the August interest rate decision but then settled back following a steep decline in Icelandic Treasury bond yields. 8,0% 7,0% 6,0% 5,0%,0% 3,0% 2,0% Yield differential, 10Y Treasuries in ISK and major currencies 1,0% EUR USD GBP 0,0% Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 We expect a small rate reduction in 2018 Rising inflation will push the real policy rate downwards in coming quarters, other things being equal, and we expect the CBI to hold the effective policy rate unchanged in the near term, so as not to accelerate the decline in the real rate. We think, however, that developments will go more or less hand-in-hand with reduced need for a tight monetary stance as the economy slows down and the output gap narrows. As 2018 progresses and the inflation outlook starts to brighten again, there could be some room for a further policy rate cut. After that, there is nothing to indicate a change in the policy rate in either direction for the remainder of the forecast horizon (through end-2019), but it need hardly be mentioned that uncertainty about interest rate developments increases further out the horizon Inflation, policy rate and real policy rate (%) 0 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Effective CBI policy rate Inflation Real policy rate Source: Central Bank of Iceland, Statistics Iceland and ISB Research forecast

5 Author Jon Bentsson, chief economist research@islandsbanki.is LEGAL DISCLAIMER This report is compiled by Islandsbanki Research of Islandsbanki hf. The information in this report originates in domestic and international information and news networks that are deemed reliable, along with public information, and Islandsbanki Research s own processing and estimates at each time. The information has not been independently verified by Islandsbanki which therefore does not guarantee that the information is comprehensive and accurate. The views of the authors can change without notice and Islandsbanki holds no obligation to update, modify or amend this publication if assumptions change. This publication is only published for informational purposes and shall therefore not be viewed as recommendation/advice to make or not make a particular investment or an offer to buy, sell or subscribe to specific financial instruments. Islandsbanki and its employees are not responsible for transactions that may be carried out based on information put forth in the report. Before making an investment decision, recipients are urged to seek expert advice and get well acquainted with the investments market and different investment alternatives. There are always financial risks related to investment activities, including risk due to international investments and fluctuations in the exchange rate of currencies. Investors investment objectives and financial position vary. Past performance does not indicate nor guarantee future performance of an investment. The research report and other information received from Islandsbanki are meant for private use only. The materials may not be copied, quote or distributed, in part or in whole, without written permission from Islandsbanki. This report is a short compilation and should not be considered to contain all available information on the subject it discusses. Supervisory body: The Financial Supervisory Authority of Iceland ( UNITED STATES This report or copies of it must not be distributed in the United States or to recipients who are citizens of the United States against restrictions stated in the United States legislation. Distributing the report in the United States might be seen as a breach of these laws. CANADA The information provided in this publication is not intended to be distributed or circulated in any manner in Canada and therefore should not be construed as any kind of financial recommendation or advice provided within the meaning of Canadian securities laws. OTHER COUNTRIES Laws and regulations of other countries may also restrict the distribution of this report. Further information regarding material from Islandsbanki Research can be accessed on the following website: 5

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