Economic indicators for Belgium

Transcription

1 General Statistics Departement Economic indicators for WEEKLY PUBLICATION N 7-5 //7 g Summary REAL GDP Final consumption private public Gross fixed capital formation Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and serices GDP ACTUAL FIGURES * FORECASTS ** NBB ECB EC OECD BPN *** NBB ECB EC OECD BPN *** (percentage changes compared to the previous year) International comparison of GDP Euro area () CONSUMER PRICES HICP National general index National health index (percentage changes compared to the previous year) International comparison of HICP Euro area () LABOUR COSTS IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR () Labour costs per hour worked Unit labour costs Unit labour costs Euro area () (percentage changes compared to the previous year) * Sources: (NAI, NBB, FPS, EC); Euro area, (ECB, Eurostat). ** The forecasts from the NBB are consistent with the estimates from December 7 Economic Review (next update February 8). Users should be aware that esti mates of this kind can sometimes be out of date owing to changes in the information available. The older the estimates, the greater this risk becomes. Publication of the estimate therefore simply means that it is the latest estimate released by the NBB. ECB Economic Bulletin December 7 (next issue Mars 8); OECD Preliminary version November 7 (next release December 7); EC European Economics Forecast Autumn 7 (next release Winter 8) and BPN September 7 (next release January 8). *** Average of the credit institutions which participate in the «Belgian Prime News». () Euro area = EA9, except the OECD forecasts. () Except for the actual figures of the Euro area and the and the EC and OECD forecasts which pertain to the whole economy. Economic indicators for N 7-5 //7

2 g Summary (continued) LABOUR MARKET Total employment. Unemployment Total employment Unemployment Harmonised unemployment rate () ACTUAL FIGURES * FORECASTS ** NBB ECB EC OECD BPN*** NBB ECB EC OECD BPN*** (annual changes in percentages) (annual changes in thousands) (annual averages in percentages of labour force) International comparison of harmonised unemployment rate () Euro area () GENERAL GOVERNMENT Primary balance Overall balance Consolidated gross debt (percentages of GDP) International comparison of overall balance Euro area () CURRENT ACCOUNT (percentages of GDP) International comparison Euro area () Economic indicators for N 7-5 //7 * Sources: (NAI, NBB, FPS, EC); Euro area, (ECB, Eurostat). ** The forecasts from the NBB are consistent with the estimates from December 7 Economic Review (next update February 8). Users should be aware that esti mates of this kind can sometimes be out of date owing to changes in the information available. The older the estimates, the greater this risk becomes. Publication of the estimate therefore simply means that it is the latest estimate released by the NBB. ECB Economic Bulletin December 7 (next issue Mars 8); OECD Preliminary version November 7 (next release December 7); EC European Economics Forecast Autumn 7 (next release Winter 8) and BPN September 7 (next release January 8). *** Average of the credit institutions which participate in the «Belgian Prime News». () This series corresponds with the results of the Labour Force Survey (LFS, Population older than 5 years), monthly adjusted by using the administrative national unemployment figures, in accordance with the Eurostat s methodology. () Euro area = EA9, except the OECD forecasts.

3 g Real GDP III IV I II III IV I II III GDP () GDP in chained 5 euros vs the previous quarter vs the corresponding quarter of the previous year (millions of euro) (percentage changes) International comparison vs the previous quarter Euro area () (percentage changes) vs the corresponding quarter of the previous year Euro area () MAIN COMPONENTS OF EXPENDITURE () (percentage changes compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year) Final private consumption Final public consumption Gross fixed capital formation business housing public Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services GDP MAIN COMPONENTS OF VALUE ADDED () Industry Construction Services GDP BELGIUM () INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF GDP () Final private consumption Final public consumption Gross fixed capital formation Euro area () Sources: (NAI); Euro area, (Eurostat). () Adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects. () Euro area = EA9. () Percentage changes versus previous quarter ,5,5,5,5,5,5 Economic indicators for N 7-5 //7

4 g Activity and labour market indicators Activity 6 7 N D J F M A M J J A S O N (percentage changes in the average for the last months compared to the corresponding period of the previous year) Industrial production, excluding building n. New car registrations including mixed cars II III IV I II III IV I II III (percentage changes compared to the corresponding period of the previous year Total turnover () Investments () Labour market EMPLOYMENT Domestic employment () Employment rate () 5-6 years -6 years II III IV I II III IV I II III (in thousands) (percentages of the population of working age) International comparison of the employment rate () Euro area () 5-6 years n. -6 years n. 5-6 years -6 years n n. Economic indicators for N 7-5 //7 UNEMPLOYMENT Unemployment (5) < 5 years old 5 years old Harmonised unemployment rate (6) 6 7 N D J F M A M J J A S O N (in thousands, end of period) (percentages of the labour force) n. International comparison of harmonised unemployment rate (6) Euro area () n n. Sources: NBB; FPS Economy, SMEs, Self-employed and Energy; NEO; FEBIAC; Eurostat; NAI. () Based on VAT-declaration. () Quarterly average of the number of employees and self-employed persons, seasonally adjusted. () Harmonised data from the quarterly labour force survey (LFS), unadjusted data. Break in series in 7-I due to the reform and modernization of the LFS. () Euro area = EA9. (5) Fully unemployed persons receiving benefits, compulsorily and voluntarily registered job-seekers; gross data. (6) This series corresponds with the results of the Labour Force Survey (LFS, group of 5-7 years), monthly adjusted by using the administrative national unemployment figures, in accordance with the Eurostat s methodology.

5 g Business survey OVERALL SYNTHETIC CURVE () MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY use of production capacity () (right-hand scale) BUILDING INDUSTRY TRADE & BUSINESS-RELATED SERVICES 5 services (right-hand scale) trade Seasonally adjusted and smoothed series Seasonally adjusted series g Consumer survey CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX () Source: NBB. () Weighted average of the synthetic curve of manufacturing industry, building industry, trade and business-related services. () Percentage of production capacity utilisation, seasonally adjusted. () Includes expectations on the general economic situation, unemployment, financial situation and saving capacity. () Over the next months. EXPECTATIONS () ON THE GENERAL ECONOMIC SITUATION Economic indicators for N 7-5 //7 5

6 g Harmonised index of consumer prices Annual data 5 6 BELGIUM (percentage changes compared to the previous year) Total HICP Energy Unprocessed food () Processed food Underlying trend in inflation () Non-energy industrial goods Services p.m. National index of consumer prices General index Health index () EURO AREA () Total HICP Energy Unprocessed food () Processed food Underlying trend in inflation () Non-energy industrial goods Services HICP TOTAL UNDERLYING TREND IN INFLATION Economic indicators for N 7-5 //7 Euro area Sources: Eurostat; FPS Economy, SMEs, Self-employed and Energy. () Fruit, vegetables, meat and fish. () HICP excluding food and energy. () General index excluding products which are harmful to the health (tobacco, alcohol, petrol and diesel). () Euro area = EA-, EA-6, EA-7, EA5-8, EA6-, EA7-, EA8-, EA9. 6

7 g Harmonised index of consumer prices (continued) Monthly data 6 7 D J F M A M J J A S O N D BELGIUM (percentage changes compared to the corresponding month of the previous year) Total HICP Energy Unprocessed food () Processed food Underlying trend in inflation () Non-energy industrial goods Services n n n n n n n. p.m. National index of consumer prices General index Health index () EURO AREA () Total HICP Energy Unprocessed food () Processed food Underlying trend in inflation () Non-energy industrial goods Services n n n n n n n. Sources: Eurostat; FPS Economy, SMEs, Self-employed and Energy. () Fruit, vegetables, meat and fish. () HICP excluding food and energy. () General index excluding products which are harmful to the health (tobacco, alcohol, petrol and diesel). () Euro area = EA-, EA-6, EA-7, EA5-8, EA6-, EA7-, EA8-, EA9. Economic indicators for N 7-5 //7 7

8 g Public finances General government - EDP definition () 5 6 REVENUE Fiscal and parafiscal revenue Direct taxes Indirect taxes Actual social contributions Capital taxes (percentages of GDP) Non-fiscal and non-parafiscal revenue () Total PRIMARY EXPENDITURE Social benefits () Other expenditures Total PRIMARY BALANCE INTEREST CHARGES OVERALL BALANCE p.m. FOR THE SUBSECTORS Federal government Social security Communities and regions Local authorities Economic indicators for N 7-5 //7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON Primary balance Euro area () Overall balance Euro area () Consolidated gross debt Euro area () Sources: NAI, NBB, Eurostat. () Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP), definition of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. () Property income, imputed social security contributions, transfers from other sectors and sales of goods and services. () From social security and all other subsectors of general government. () Euro area = EA9. 8

9 g Foreign trade () VALUE Monthly data Export Import Balance Cumulative data over the last months Export Import Balance PRICE Export Import Terms of trade VOLUME Export Import Coverage ratio 6 7 O N D J F M A M J J A S O (billions of euro) (percentage changes in the last months compared to the preceding months) n n n n n n PRICE INDEX ( = ) BALANCE (in billions of euro) Export Import Source: NAI. () National concept. Economic indicators for N 7-5 //7 9

10 g Balance of payments CURRENT ACCOUNT Goods Services Primary incomes Secondary incomes 6 7 J J A S O N D J F M A M J (cumulative data over the last months, in billions of euro) CAPITAL ACCOUNT FINANCIAL ACCOUNT Direct investment Equity capital Other capital Portfolio investment Financial derivatives Other transactions NBB s reserves ERRORS AND OMISSIONS BALANCE OF CURRENT ACCOUNT (quarterly data in percentage of GDP) INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION (quarterly data in billions of euro) Economic indicators for N 7-5 //7 Net external asset position (right-hand scale) Sources: NBB, NAI. Assets Liabilities (left-hand scale)

11 g Financial markets Interest rates EURO EUROSYSTEM EURO YIELD CURVE Main refinancing operations (¹) Marginal lending facility Deposit facility logarithmic scale w. m. m. 6m. y. y. 5y. y. //6 //7 //7 PUBLIC DEBT BELGIUM LENDING RATES BY CREDIT INSTITUTIONS Treasury certificates Reference loan: OLO years To households for house purchases: floating rate and up to year initial rate fixation over years initial rate fixation To non-financial corporations: up to an amount of EUR million () over an amount of EUR million () INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON LONG TERM () United States Germany Japan Sources: ECB, NBB. () Minimum bid rate. () Weighted average rate. () Floating rate and up to year initial rate fixation. () Ten-year government bond. Economic indicators for N 7-5 //7

12 g Financial markets (continued) Exchange rates,7,6,5,,,,,9,8,7,6 REFERENCE EXCHANGE RATE NOMINAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE ( = ) US dollar / euro Pound sterling / euro Japanese yen () / euro US dollar Euro Japanese yen Stock and commodities market STOCK MARKET COMMODITIES MARKET Left-hand scale: Right-hand scale: BEL DJ Europe Stoxx 5 P IDX Nikkei Dow Jones Industrial Gold in Brussels (EUR/kg)(left-hand scale) Brent (USD/barrel)(right-hand scale) Sources: ECB, BIS, Euronext. Economic indicators for N 7-5 //7 Monetary aggregates () EURO AREA M excluding currency in circulation M of which: by MFI () in BELGIUM Deposits overnight with agreed maturity up to years redeemable at notice up to months Others M () components 6 7 O N D J F M A M J J A S O (end of period, in billions of euro) M () Sources: NBB, ECB. () M comprises currency in circulation, deposits with agreed maturity up to years, repurchase agreements (exclude the Repurchase agreements with Central counterparties - CCPs), money market fund shares/units, money market paper and debt securities up to years. () Monetary Financial Institutions. () Excluding currency in circulation.

13 g Financial accounts FINANCIAL ASSETS Individuals General government Non-financial corporations I II III IV I II III IV I II (end of period outstanding amounts in billions of euro) FINANCIAL LIABILITIES Individuals General government Non-financial corporations NET FINANCIAL WEALTH Individuals General government Non-financial corporations Source: NBB. g Conventional signs indicates data which have been updated since the previous publication.. nil or less than half the smallest digit considered. - data non-existent or meaningless. n. not available. e estimate. g Information We suggest people wanting more information about the contents, the methodology, the methods of calculations and the sources to get in touch with the Statistical information systems of the National Bank of. Alexander Foket tel.: + 5 fax: + Nino Di Zinno tel.: datashop@nbb.be Editor Rudi Acx Head of the General Statistics Department National Bank of boulevard de Berlaimont BE- Brussels Closing date //7. Next issue: 9//7. All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. Economic indicators for N 7-5 //7