Economic developments in the euro area
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1 Peter Praet Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank Economic developments in the euro area European Finance Forum Frankfurt am Main, 9 April 2018
2 Global PMI composite output and global output (diffusion index, lhs; q-o-q percentage change, rhs) Composite output PMIs (diffusion index; SA; monthly data) 62 Global GDP (q-o-q percentage change, rhs) Global composite output Global composite output - long-term average Global Advanced economies Emerging market economies Sources: Markit, ECB calculations. Note: Long-term average refers to 1999 onwards. Latest observation: 2018Q1 (PMI) and 2017Q3 (global GDP) Sources: Markit, ECB calculations. Latest observation: March European Finance Forum 2
3 Euro area HICP (Index, January 1999=100) Euro area real GDP level (1999 =100) 150 HICP trend (2% per year) HICP 150 Potential GDP Real GDP Counterfactual potential GDP Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Latest observation: March 2018 flash estimate Sources: Commission autumn 2017 forecast, ECB calculations European Finance Forum 3
4 The broad unemployment rate and its components (percentage of the extended labour force) Employment, total hours worked and average hours worked (index, 2008Q1=100) Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Notes: Corrected for the impact of methodological changes. Latest observation: 2017Q3. Source: Eurostat. Latest observation: 2017Q European Finance Forum 4
5 Sources of household income growth (average annual percentage points, percentages) Pre-crisis 2008Q3-2009Q Contributions from: Compensation of employees Other income Direct taxes and transfers Terms of Trade Real disposable income Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Note: All income components are deflated with the GDP deflator. Other income refers to operating surplus and property income. The contribution from the terms of trade is proxied by the differential between the GDP and the consumption deflator. Gross disposable income is deflated with the consumption deflator. The pre-crisis sample covers 2000Q1-2008Q2. Latest observation: 2017Q European Finance Forum 5
6 Euro area fiscal outlook and stance (percent of GDP) Source: March 2018 MPE. Notes: The fiscal stance is measured as the change in the cyclically adjusted primary balance net of government assistance to the financial sector. Oil (USD/barrel) European Finance Forum Fiscal stance Source: Bloomberg. Latest observation: 6 April Budget balance Real disposable income and consumption (annual percentage changes, pp) Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Note: All income components are deflated with the GDP deflator. The contribution from the terms of trade is proxied by the differential between the GDP and the consumption deflator. Consumption and gross disposable income are deflated with the consumption deflator. Latest observations: 2017Q3 for income components, 2017Q4 for consumption and disposable income.
7 6 Bank lending rates for very small versus large loans to NFCs (percentages per annum) Euro area* Other euro area countries 6 IT, ES, PT, GR, IE, SI, CY Real disposable income and consumption (annual percentage changes, pp) Very small loans Large loans Source: ECB. Notes: Very small loans are loans of up to 0.25 million, while large loans are those above 1 million. Aggregation is based on new business volumes. *The euro area series is calculated as weighted average of country spreads. Latest observation: February European Finance Forum 7 Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Note: All income components are deflated with the GDP deflator. The contribution from the terms of trade is proxied by the differential between the GDP and the consumption deflator. Consumption and gross disposable income are deflated with the consumption deflator. Latest observations: 2017Q3 for income components, 2017Q4 for consumption and disposable income.
8 Real investment (2008Q1 = 100) Capacity utilisation (capital goods sector, percent) 110 Total Business 100 Long-term max and min Long-term average 2018Q EA DE FR IT ES Sources: March 2018 MPE, ECB calculations. Note: Euro area business investment excludes the estimated impact of Ireland in Latest observation: 2017Q4. Sources: DG-ECFIN, ECB calculations. Note: Long-term average refers to the period since Latest observation: 2018Q European Finance Forum 8
9 Wage Phillips curve (x-axis: percentage points; y-axis: annual percentage changes) Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Note: Broad unemployment rate is the ratio of the (i) total unemployed, (ii) underemployed part-time workers who currently have jobs, although not at the optimal weekly hours they would like, and (iii) inactive persons who are marginally attached to the labour market plus all marginally attached workers. From 2018Q1 on: March 2018 MPE. The broad unemployment rate forecast assumes that the difference between the unemployment rate and the broad unemployment rate declines at the same pace as observed in the past 4 quarters. The black line represents a simple fitted Phillips curve. The fitted curve is based on data for 2006Q1 to 2017Q3. Latest observations: 2017Q3 for broad unemployment and 2017Q4 for compensation per employee European Finance Forum 9
10 HICP inflation and HICP excluding energy and food (annual percentage changes) HICP HICP excluding energy and food Price of inflation and deflation protection (percentages per annum) Price of inflation protection Price of deflation protection Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Latest observation: March 2018 (flash estimates) European Finance Forum 10 Source: Bloomberg Note: The price of inflation (deflation) protection refers to the price of a year-on-year inflation option with a 4% cap (0% floor) for a horizon of five years. Latest observation: 28 March 2018
11 Background slides European Finance Forum 11
12 Monetary policy stance determined by combination & interaction of: our policy rates, our asset purchase programme, and our forward guidance on each of these tools complemented by: the TLTROs, which will remain outstanding for the next three years European Finance Forum 12
13 The ECB s forward guidance Key ECB interest rates expected to remain at present levels for an extended period of time and well past horizon of net asset purchases Asset Purchase Programme (APP) net asset purchases intended to continue at monthly pace of 30 billion, until end-sep 2018 or beyond, if necessary & in any case until GovC sees sustained adjustment in path of inflation (SAPI) consistent with inflation aim Eurosystem will reinvest principal payments from maturing securities for an extended period of time after end of net purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary European Finance Forum 13
14 Criteria for sustained adjustment in the path of inflation (SAPI) Convergence Headline inflation on course to reach levels below, but close to 2% in the medium term; Confidence Sufficient confidence in durable stabilisation of inflation around these levels; Resilience Resilience of inflation convergence even after the end of net asset purchases European Finance Forum 14
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