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1 Peter Praet Member of the Executive Board of the ECB Presentation to the Bulgarian Banking Association Sofia, 24 May 2017
2 Euro area real GDP, composite PMI and ESI (annual % change) Distribution of growth rates across sectors in euro area countries (kernel density distributions) Sources: Markit, DG-ECFIN and Eurostat. Note: The ESI and PMI are normalised. Latest observations: 2017Q1 for GDP outcome, April 2017 for the ESI and the PMI. Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations. Note: The distributions are calculated for each period on the year-on-year growth rates for 162 country-sectors (i.e. 9 sectors across 18 countries)
3 Euro area actual and counterfactual real GDP growth path (1999 = 100) Real GDP growth path in selected euro area countries (2007 = 100) Sources: European Commission, ECB calculations. Note: Counterfactual GDP assumes that potential GDP continued to grow at its 2007 growth rate (i.e. it reflects the observation that potential growth already slowed down before the crisis). Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Latest observation: 2017Q
4 6-10 years ahead growth expectations for the euro area (annual % change) Bank loans to the private sector (annual % changes) Source: Consensus Economics. Latest observation: April Source: ECB. Latest observation: March
5 HICP inflation and HICP excluding food and energy (annual % changes) Price of inflation and deflation protection (% p.a.) HICP HICP excluding food and energy 400 Price of deflation protection Price of inflation protection Source: Eurostat. Latest observation: April Source: Bloomberg. Note: The price of inflation (deflation) protection refers to the price of a five-year year-on-year inflation option with a 4% cap (0% floor). Latest observation: 17 May
6 M3 and loan growth (annual % changes) Central bank balance sheets (Jan = 100) 14 M3 loans to the private sector 600 Eurosystem Federal Reserve Source: ECB. Latest observation: March Sources: ECB, Federal Reserve. Latest observation: 12 May
7 Composite lending rates to NFCs (percent per annum) 8.0 cross-country dispersion ES IT DE FR EA Source: ECB. Notes: The indicator for the total cost of bank borrowing is calculated by aggregating short and long-term rates using a 24-month moving average of new business volumes. The cross-country dispersion displays the min and max range over a fixed sample of 12 euro area countries. Latest observation: March
8 Bank profitability (ROE; percent) EU banks cost to income ratio (percent) EU-28 US Asia-Pacific Dec.09 Dec.10 Dec.11 Dec.12 Dec.13 Dec.14 Dec.15 Dec.16 Source: Standard & Poor s Global Market Intelligence. Source: EBA
9 NPL ratio (percent) Cross-country dispersion in NPL coverage ratios in 2016 (percent) Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec RO SI HU HR CZ PL BG AT SK FR IT GR LU BE ES PT CY DE MT IE NL EE GB LT DK FI NO SE LV Source: EBA.. Sources: EBA. Note: The coverage ratio is the share of the face value of the loan covered by loan loss provisions. The yellow line represents the EU weighted average
10 ECB Rubric monetary policy measures since June 2014 Jun Sep Jan Dec Mar Dec Rate cuts MRO: 0.15%: MLF: 0.40%; DRF: -0.10% MRO: 0.05%: MLF: 0.30%; DRF: -0.20% MRO: 0.05%: MLF: 0.30%; DRF: -0.30% MRO: 0.00%: MLF: 0.25%; DRF: -0.40% TLTROs Fixed rate (MRO) Max. maturity: Sep Uptake depends on net lending Mandatory early repayment Fixed rate at MRO or below if lending > benchmark (min. DFR) No mandatory early repayment Private asset purchases Public asset purchases Broad portfolio of simple & transparent ABS and CBs Purchases in EA sov. debt markets 60bn monthly purchases, incl. ABSPP/CBPP3 APP recalibration I Extension to Mar Reinvestment of principal payments Purchase of inv.- grade NFC bonds with high pass-through to real economy APP recalibration II 80bn monthly purchases Higher issue share limit for certain issuers APP recalibration III 60bn monthly purchases until December 2017 Min. remaining maturity for PSPP eligible securities decreased from 2y to 1y Purchases below DF rate allowed if necessary
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