The challenges of an ageing population. Budgetary and labour force projections for Belgium and the EU Member States

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1 The challenges of an ageing population Budgetary and labour force projections for Belgium and the EU Member States Alexander Schwan, European Commission WSE Arbeidsmarktcongres Provinciehuis Vlaams-Brabant, Leuven

2 Outline General features of projections 2012 Ageing Report projection results Labour force projections Budgetary projections Latest BE and NL pension reform effects Labour force projections Budgetary projections Policy recommendations for further pension reforms Conclusion

3 General features of age-related expenditure projections for 2012 Ageing Report Assumptions Projections Labour Productivity Unemployment benefits Population EUROPOP2010 Production function method Labour force Cohort method GDP Production function Health care Long-term care Total agerelated spending Unemployment Convergence to ECFIN estimate of NAIRU Education Pensions National models Real interest rate (constant)

4 IE UK NO DK BE LU SE FR NL FI CY EU15 AT EU27 EA17 CZ EE MT ES GR IT LT PT SI HU DE BG EU12 SK PL RO LV Population projections: Old-age dependency ratio 80 Old-age dependency ratio (65+ / 15-64)

5 Pension projection exercise: 3 steps to be taken Agreement on common assumptions 1. Labour force projections; 2. Macroeconomic assumptions Pension projection based on national models Provision of commonly agreed variables in pre-defined questionnaires Peer review of pension projections by Economic Policy Committee (AWG)

6 Labour force projections The cohort approach: Participation rates are projected for each single year of age (15 to 74) and gender Three main features of the methodology : 1) Use of historical entry rates and exit rates: average kept constant over the period of projections 2) Incorporate the impact of increasing female labour market participation ("cohort effect") and 3) Incorporate the impact of pension reforms (reference age group 50-74)

7 Higher participation rate of older workers in the future Total Young Prime age Total Young Prime age Older AT AT BE BE BG BG CY CY CZ CZ DE DE DK DK EE EE EL EL ES ES FI FI FR FR HU HU IE IE IT IT LT LT LU LU LV LV MT MT NL NL NO NO PL PL PT PT RO RO SE SE SI SI SK SK UK UK EU EU27 EA EA17 Older Change

8 Pension reforms matter: exit age impact

9 Pension reforms matter: employment impact EU27 - Increase in total employment rate ( ) Fixed Participation Rate for each age and gender group Cohort effect Pension reforms effects

10 Three phases of employment until 2012: rising employ ment and slow growth in workingage population : rising employment, declining working-age population from 2023 onward: both employment and working-age population decline working-age population (20-64) total employment (20-64) employment rate (20-64) Phase 1 : rising employment and slow growth in working-age population Phase 2 : rising employment, declining working-age population Phase 3 : both employment and working-age population decline

11 GDP growth in the medium and long run 2,0 EU27 2,0 BE 1,5 1,8 1, ,4 1,0 1,2 1,0 0,5 0,8 0,6 0,0 0,4 0,2-0, , Labour productivity growth Employment growth GDP growth GDP per capita growth Labour productivity growth Employment growth GDP growth GDP per capita growth

12 LV PL EE IT DK PT FR SE EL BG UK EU27 EA AT DE CZ HU FI LT NL ES RO IE NO SK MT BE SI CY LU Progress with pension reforms: spending (change in p.p. of GDP and 2012 Ageing Report) ,3 p.p. (2009 AR) +1.5 p.p. (2012 AR) Belgium 2009: +4.5 p.p.; 2012: +5.6 p.p AR 2012 AR

13 Underlying pension expenditure drivers (% of GDP) 10,0 8,0 8,5 7,6 6,0 5,6 4,0 2,0 1,5 0,0-2,0-0,9-0,8-0,3-0,6-0,5-0,2-4,0-2,9 Dependency ratio Coverage ratio Employment effect Benefit ratio Interaction effect Total -2,7 EU27 BE

14 2012 pension reforms in Belgium and the Netherlands Belgium: Restrictions in early retirement and prepensions The Netherlands: Gradual increase in statutory retirement age to 67 and link to gains in life expectancy thereafter

15 Reform effect BE/NL: effective exit age 62,4 Average effective retirement age in Belgium 68,0 Average effective retirement age in the Netherlands 62,2 67,0 66,0 62,0 65,0 61,8 64,0 61,6 63,0 62,0 61,4 61,0 61,2 60,0 61, ,0 Females (no pensions reforms) Females (no pensions reforms) Females (with pensions reforms) Females (with pensions reforms) Males (no pensions reforms) Males (no pensions reforms) Males (with pensions reforms) Males (with pensions reforms)

16 Reform effect BE/NL: participation rate Belgium: TOTAL WITH NEW PENSIONS REFORM WITHOUT PENSION REFORM REFORM EFFECT PARTICIPATION RATE PARTICIPATION RATE DIFFERENCE Age _ _ _ _ _ The Netherlands: TOTAL WITH NEW PENSIONS REFORM WITHOUT PENSION REFORM REFORM EFFECT PARTICIPATION RATE PARTICIPATION RATE DIFFERENCE Age _ _ _ _ _

17 Reform effect BE/NL: pension spending 18 Belgium 11 The Netherlands Without reform: +5.6 p.p.; With reform: +5.1 p.p. of GDP Without reform: +3.6 p.p.; With reform: +1.7 p.p. of GDP After reform Before reform

18 Policy recommendations for further pension reforms The Commission set out its line in the 2012 Annual Growth Survey on pension-related issues, again repeated in the White Paper on Pensions and the 2013 Annual Growth Survey: align the retirement age with increases in life expectancy (done already by IT, ES, EL, DK, NL and SK); restrict access to early retirement schemes and other early exit pathways (done e.g. by BE and AT); support longer working lives; equalise the pensionable age between men and women; and, support the development of complementary retirement savings to enhance retirement incomes.

19 Country-specific recommendations (CSR) during the 2012 European Semester 17 out of 27 Member States got a CSR proposal on pensions (11 on linking retirement age with life expectancy) Main messages in line with 2011, 2012 and 2013 Annual Growth Survey messages Belgium CSR2: "Continue to improve the long-term sustainability of public finances by curbing age-related expenditure, including health expenditure. In particular, implement the reform of pre-retirement and pension schemes and take further steps to ensure an increase in the effective retirement age, including through linking the statutory retirement age to life expectancy."

20 Conclusion Pension reforms in recent years with visible positive impact on participation rates, effective retirement ages as well as restrictions in pension spending Positive effect to be expected also in the future Belgian pension reform is a step in the right direction to increase the effective retirement age Further reforms might be necessary to increase participation and reduce pension spending in the medium- and long-run

21 Thank you for your attention! ALEXANDER SCHWAN European Commission DG Economic and Financial Affairs C.2 - Sustainability of public finances alexander.schwan@ec.europa.eu