Benchmarking options for the effective achievement of the renewable energy target of the EU energy strategy by 2030

Transcription

1 Benchmarking options for the effective achievement of the renewable energy target of the EU energy strategy by 2030 IAEE 2017 Authors: Lukas Liebmann, Christoph Zehetner, Gustav Resch Energy Economics Group, Vienna University of Technology Contact: Web: Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, , Slide 1

2 Introduction Research Questions (1) What are benchmark options needed for? (2) What is the target for the share of renewable energies in the final energy consumption of different benchmark options for individual EU Member States to ensure the achievement of the 27% target of the EU? (3) What possible bandwidths for the share of renewable energies in gross energy consumption are given by the different benchmark options? (4) What is the expected net increase in RES deployment between 2020 and 2030? Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, , Slide 2

3 Political framework 2030 Climate & energy framework 27% to 30% increase in energy efficiency At least 27% RES share in gross final energy consumption Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, , Slide 3

4 Political framework Framing the obstacles According to current scenarios (PRIMES Reference 2016) the EU would reach a renewable share of 24.3% by This result shows that the EU would not meet the set target for There are barriers to achieve the target of at least 27% in a business as usual" scenario: Missing from cost-effectiveness Imperfect markets Update of the legal framework Lack of citizen participation Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, , Slide 4

5 Political framework Mechanism to close the ambition gap Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, , Slide 5

6 Political framework Pledging and Compensation Mechanisms - Benchmarks Needs? Benchmarks would enable the European Commission to provide "guidance on sufficiently ambitious commitments by EU Member States and to enable them to assess the contribution that individual Member States need to achieve the EU objective Benchmarks would provide an indicator for Member States for a 'fair contribution' to the overall EU objective In order to implement a gaps-filling mechanism and associated financial payments from Member States in case of not achieving the overall EU target Benchmarking options are possible on the basis of different indicators Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, , Slide 6

7 EU 28 AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK EU 2020 RES targets per country and the additional RES share needed to meet 2030 target (RED 2020 calculation approach) Results Benchmark according to the logic of the RD % 60% 50% RD2020 approach 2020 targets 2015 RES shares 44% 41% 39% 47% 38% 56% 40% 30% 20% 27% 21% 20% 20% 19% 25% 30% 25% 27% 30% 26% 19% 24% 29% 24% 18% 18% 21% 20% 29% 31% 20% 23% 10% 0% 50% of the necessary effort is distributed globally and 50% by means of GDP weighting Allocation method with moderate differences between Member States The GDP-based approach does not always lead to the expected results Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, , Slide 7

8 EU 2020 RES targets per country and the additional RES share needed to meet 2030 target (RED 2020 calculation approach) Results EU 28 AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK Benchmark based on the national potential for renewable energies 60% 50% RES Potential max RES Potential min 2020 targets 2015 RES shares 45% 46% 48% 44% 55% 40% 38% 39% 34% 39% 36% 34% 33% 30% 20% 27% 18% 28% 18% 18% 25% 28% 27% 19% 24% 25% 18% 19% 23% 19% 19% 11% 10% 0% * Vorläufige Ergebnisse aus IMPACT ASSESSMENT SWD(2016) 418 final Bandwidths result from European least-cost scenarios The min-max spread is based on a sensitivity analysis of nonfinancial barriers, energy consumption and the possible promotion of biofuels High burden for economically weaker countries Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, , Slide 8

9 Deviations of Area (Total) benchmark compared to RD2020 approach Results The alternative approach described in the Impact Assessment 6% 5% 4% 3,7% 4,6% 4,6% 4,3% 5,1% 3,6% 3% 2,5% 2,9% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% 1,7% 1,4% 0,9% 0,9% 0,6% 0,8% 0,6% 0,4% 0,8% 0,2% -0,3% -0,3% -0,6% -1,0% -1,0% -1,2% -1,1% -1,3% -1,2% -2,0% AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK The alternative approach described in the Impact Assessment implicitly takes the potential availability of renewables resources into consideration by including the size of the country as a determining parameter in addition to GDP and equal sharing ( flat rate ). More precisely, these impact factors are weighted differently in the RES target allocation i.e. the allocation is based on 50% flat-rate, 25% GDP and 25% land area per capita. Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, , Slide 9

10 AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK Needed net deployment of RES to meet the 2030 target according the 2020 logic for 27% and 30% expressed in mtoe Results Needed net deployment of RES between 2020 and logic (30%) 2020 logic (27%) Net increase Net increase The required increase in net additional RES deployment is significantly higher if we assume an RES target of 30% instead of 27%. However, even with a 30% RES target, this would result in lower or comparable net renewables increase in compared to for most Member States. Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, , Slide 10

11 Needed net deployment of RES to meet the 2030 target according the 2020 logic for 27% and 30% expressed in mtoe RES per mtoe GFEC of 2015 Results EU 28 AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK Needed net deployment of RES between 2020 and 2030 relative to the GFEC of , logic (30%) 2020 logic (27%) Net increase Net increase ,1 0,1 0,0-0,1-0,1 The required increase in net additional RES deployment expressed in RES per gross final energy consumption (GFEC) of 2015 Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, , Slide 11

12 Conclusions Benchmarks can guide the Member States through the pledging process and form the basis for gap-filling mechanism A fair and efficient" approach to ensure political feasibility (depending on the gap between the benchmarks of the Member States) Contrary benchmarks in a GDP and a potential-based benchmarking approach deliver a valid argument for regional cooperation Assuming a 30% energy efficiency target, an EU RES-target of 30% would result in lower or comparable net renewables increase in compared to the effort for most Member States Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, , Slide 12

13 Thank you for your attention! Kontakt Lukas Liebmann Telefon: Energy Economics Group (EEG), Vienna University of Technology Gußhausstraße 25-29/E370-3, A-1040 Vienna, Austria Benchmarking options, IAEE 2017, , Slide 13