In 2010, Europe faced a choice

Transcription

1 Europe 2020 Ruth Paserman DG Enterprise and Industry Head of Unit Europe 2020 and National Competitiveness Policies Alpeuregio summer school July 2014

2 In 2010, Europe faced a choice : a decade of sluggish growth? Output level Pre-crisis growth path «Strong recovery» : a full return to earlier growth path and a capacity to go beyond «Sluggish recovery» : a permanent loss in wealth and stagnation on a lower growth path «Lost decade» : a permanent loss in wealth and an eroded potential for future growth years Source: presentation of President Barroso to the informal European Council of February 2010, launching Europe

3 A range of long-term challenges Ageing Rising inequalities Globalisation The digital economy Productivity challenge Pressure on resources need to renew the growth model in order to unleash the growth potential: ambition of the Europe 2020 strategy. 2 2

4 Why a European strategy? The crisis showed that our economies are closely inter-linked If we want to counter the crisis and weigh globally, we must act in a more coordinated way In addition, the crisis in Greece has more than ever underlined the interdependences in the eurozone area Only the EU gives us the critical mass to have impact: Activate all policy areas and levers in an integrated way Exchange of best practices 3

5 The Europe 2020 Strategy 1.) Smart growth: developing an economy based on knowledge and innovation 2.) Sustainable growth: promoting a more efficient, greener and more competitive economy 3.) Inclusive growth: fostering a high-employment economy delivering social and territorial cohesion 4

6 EU targets agreed for 2020 Proposed by the Commission and agreed by the European Council in March 2010: all Member States were invited to set national targets on this basis. EMPLOYMENT INNOVATION 75% of the population aged should be employed 3% of the EU's GDP should be invested in R&D CLIMATE / ENERGY A reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 20% A share of renewable energies up to 20% An increase in energy efficiency by 20% EDUCATION The share of early school leavers should be under 10% At least 40% of the younger generation should have a degree or diploma POVERTY Lifting at least 20 million people out of poverty 5

7 Europe 2020: the EU s growth strategy Strengthened EU economic governance Macro-economic & fiscal surveillance Regulation of financial services Targets and guidance for structural reforms Flagships for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth Digital Agenda Youth on the Move Innovation Union New Industrial Policy New Skills and new Jobs Platform against Poverty Resource Efficiency Modernised EU levers for growth and jobs Single Market Act Trade and external policies Structural Funds and future EU budget 6

8 Integrated country surveillance SGP: fiscal policy Competitiveness and Competitiveness imbalances and imbalances Structural reforms to raise growth potential Budgetary balances Public debt Long-term sustainability of public finances Budgetary rules and institutions Elements of quality of public finance Wages and price competitiveness Wages and price competitiveness External imbalances External imbalances Internal imbalances (housing, Internal credit) imbalances (housing, credit) Labour market reforms Product market reforms Reforms of social protection systems 7 7

9 8

10 EU recommendations for national action in 2014/15 Public finances Financial sector Structural reforms Employment and social policies Sound public finance s Pension and healthcare systems Fiscal framework Taxatio n Banking and access to finance Housing market Network industrie s Competition in service sector Public administratio n and smart regulation R&D and innovation Resourc e efficienc y Labour market participatio n Active labour market policy Wage setting mechanisms Labour market segmentatio n Educatio n and training Poverty and social inclusion AT BE BG CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR HR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK Note: Country-specific recommendations for proposed by the Commission on 2 June Cyprus and Greece should implement commitments under EU/IMF financial assistance programmes. Recommendations for Portugal are conditioned by exit from the programme. More information at : 9

11 Implementation Implementation of reforms is a shared responsibility: EU level National level Regional and local levels Social partners and civil society Regional and local administrations are often heavily involved with implementation, often playing a key role In labour market reforms and wider social policies the social partners have a key role to play The Commission consulted with social partners prior to the adoption of the AGS and encourages Member States and the Economic and Social Committee to continue this dialogue 10

12 Gaps in the EMU architecture exposed by the crisis Excessive risk-accumulation in quiet/good times in both the public and private sectors Failing market discipline Insufficent monitoring and enforcement tools Need to improve risk prevention Risks of financial instability within the single currency : Contagion between fragile sovereigns Feedback loops between weak fiscal and financial sectors Financial fragmentation across the euro area, even threatening the integrity of the euro area Need to improve crisis resolution 11 11

13 Towards a genuine EMU Stage 1 Completed end Stage 2 Start 2013 completed 2014 Stage 3 Post 2014 Objectives Ensuring fiscal sustainability; breaking link between banks and sovereigns Completing integrated financial framework; promoting sound structural policies Establishing EMU country-specific shock absorption function Integrated financial framework SSM and Single Rulebook Harmonised national resolution and deposit guarantee frameworks Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM) with backstops Integrated budgetary framework ESM bank recapitalisation Six pack, Two pack, TSCG Financial incentives linked to Country-specific contractual arrangements shock absorption Integrated economic framework Contractual arrangements integrated in European Semester Political accountability Framework for ex-ante coordination of economic policy reforms Commensurate process on democratic legitimacy and accountability 12

14 Still high levels of sovereign debt, expected to decline as of 2015 % of GDP EU and Euro area gross government debt forecast Source: European Commission

15 A sluggish recovery after a deep recession EU and Euro area real GDP level (index 2010 = 100) forecast Source: European Commission

16 Rising levels of unemployment, with slow decline expected as of 2014 % 14 EU and Euro area unemployment rate forecast Source: European Commission

17 After sharp credit tightening, first signs of relaxation Credit supply to SMEs (Reading: scores above 0 indicate a tightening) 16 Source: ECB Bank Lending Survey 16

18 First lessons from the Europe 2020 strategy The targets The flagship initiatives The Europe 2020 strategy in the context of the European Semester 17 17

19 State of play on the flagship initiatives 7 "Work programmes" in the key areas of the Europe 2020 strategy. Most of the initiatives envisaged have been presented by the Commission and many have been adopted. Yet, it is too early to be able to assess their follow-up and impact

20 Conclusion Next steps March European Council: discussion on implementation of the Europe 2020 strategy The Commission will then launch a public consultation. Early 2015: the Commission will make proposals for the pursuit of the strategy

21 Europe 2020 targets

22 Are we likely to meet our targets for 2020? EMPLOYMENT 75% of the population aged should be employed INNOVATION 3% of the EU's GDP should be invested in R&D CLIMATE / ENERGY A reduction of CO2 emissions by 20% A share of renewable energies up to 20% 20% energy efficiency (EU primary and final energy consumption of 1474 and 1078 Mtoe in 2020, resp.)? EDUCATION The share of early school leavers should be under 10% At least 40% of the younger generation should have a degree or diploma POVERTY 20 million fewer people should be at risk of poverty 21

23 Smart, sustainable and inclusive growth i) 75% of the population aged should be employed 22

24 Progress with employment rates is stalling EU employment rate: past trends and scenario for 2020 (share of people employed in the age group) On the basis of current commitments, the Europe 2020 target of a 75% employment rate will not be met. The EU would need around 20 million new jobs to meet its target. * Estimated values based on Commission 2013 Spring Forecast for , assuming an employment growth to the levels of 2014, taking into account a 1.2% reduction of the active population during the decade ** No target set by the UK: the projection for the EU assumes 75% for the UK in 2020 Source: European Commission 23

25 Employment performances vary markedly Employment rates in the EU (share of people employed in the age group) * No target set for UK. For SE the target is well above 80 %. Source: European Commission 24

26 Smart, sustainable and inclusive growth ii) 3% of the EU s GDP should be invested in R&D 25

27 Example: R&D target Progress at EU level On the basis of current commitments, EU investment in R&D could reach 2.2% by EU gross domestic expenditure on R&D as a % of GDP * Scenario based on the continuation of ongoing reforms and financial efforts. ** No targets sets by CZ and the UK: 2020 figures were estimated by Commission services. *** The EU target includes R&D expenditure by intergovernmental research infrastructures, 26 which is not included in the R&D expenditure of the Member States. 26 Source: European Commission

28 Example: R&D target Progress at MS level In 2012, R&D intensity in the EU amounted to 2.06% of GDP, against a target of 3% for R&D investment in EU Member States as a % of GDP * LU: **No targets set by CZ (only for the public sector) and the UK. IE: the target is 2.5% of GNP, which is estimated to be equivalent to 2% of GDP. LU: the target is between 2.30% and 2.60% of GDP (2.45% assumed). PT: the target is between 2.70% and 3.30% of GDP (3% assumed) Source: European Commission

29 Example: R&D target Progress over time Investment in R&D in the EU has increased at an annual growth rate of 0.9% over , to reach 2.06% in Situation in 2012 and progress since 2000, by country* * Performance: EL, SI: 2007; LU, NL, RO: 2010; US, JP, CN: Progress: SI: ; LU, NL, RO: ; CN: ; EL: ; HR: ; HU, MT: ; SE: ; US: ; DK: ; JP: ; PT: ; FR: Source: European Commission

30 Smart, sustainable and inclusive growth iii) a reduction of CO2 emissions by 20%, a share of renewable energies up to 20%, an increase in energy efficiency by 20% 29

31 Greenhouse gas emissions are being reduced Greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 until 2000, 2012 and 2020 The EU is well on track for meeting its 2020 greenhouse gas emission reduction target of -20% In ktco2-eq for EU 27, scope of the climate and energy package Source: European Commission 30

32 But not all countries make sufficient effort Change in greenhouse gas emissions in non-ets sectors in EU Member States Note: Non-ETS emissions only. Negative and positive values indicate, respectively overdelivery and shortfall compared to target. Gap based on the most recent submission by Member States. No historic or projected non-ets emissions available for Croatia. 31 Source: EEA

33 The share of renewables is increasing EU share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption, The EU is currently on track to reach the 2020 targets, however, as the trajectory grows steeper towards the end, more efforts will be needed from Member States in order to reach the 2020 targets * Commission projections based on Green-X model Source: European Commission 32

34 All countries are contributing Share of renewables in Member States (% of gross final energy consumption) % 2011 figures indicate that the EU as a whole is on its trajectory towards the 2020 targets with a renewable energy share of 13%. All but six Member States (BE, FR, LV, MT, NL and UK) already reached their 2011/2012 interim targets set in the Directive. Source: European Commission 33

35 All countries are contributing Primary energy consumption in EU Member States % 2011 figures indicate that the EU as a whole is on its trajectory towards the 2020 targets with a renewable energy share of 13%. All but six Member States (BE, FR, LV, MT, NL and UK) already reached their 2011/2012 interim targets set in the Directive. Source: European Commission 34

36 Energy efficiency target EU primary energy consumption, Encouraging recent developments - more results in Commission's '2014 report' on the progress towards the EU target (due June 2014) * Gross inland consumption minus non-energy uses 35 Source: European Commission

37 Smart, sustainable and inclusive growth iv) the share of early school leavers should be under 10% and at least 40% of the younger generation should have a degree or diploma 36

38 One in seven young leaves school early Share of early school leavers* Past performance If national targets are met EU target % On the basis of current commitments (national targets), the Europe 2020 target will be missed by approx. 0.5 %. * Proportion of the population aged with only lower secondary education or less and no longer in education or training. Source: European Commission 37

39 There are big differences between countries Share of early school leavers* Performance in 2012 National target for % 25% 20% 15% 10% EU target 5% 0% HR SI SK CZ PL LT SE AT LU NL FI DK EE DE LV CY EL HU IE FR BE BG EU UK RO IT PT MT ES * aged Source: European Commission 38

40 Tertiary Attainment: National targets will not suffice to deliver Share of young people with tertiary attainment* Past performance If national targets are met EU target % Positive trend, but based on the basis of current commitments, the Europe 2020 target will not be met. * aged Source: European Commission 39

41 Starting points are very different Share of young people with tertiary attainment* Performance in 2012 National target for % 60% 50% 40% ISCED 4 EU target 30% 20% 10% 0% IE CY LU LT SE UK FI BE FR DE DK NL ES SI EE PL AT LV EU EL HU PT BG CZ SK HR MT RO IT The definition of the national target for AT, DE, FI and FR is different from the one used for the EU target. The UK has set no national target. * aged Source: European Commission 40

42 Smart, sustainable and inclusive growth v) 20 million fewer people should be at risk of poverty 41

43 People at risk of poverty or social exclusion in the EU, 2012 Source: European Commission 42

44 The situation is very different across Member States People at risk of poverty or social exclusion in EU Member States* * 2020 target refers to at risk of poverty or social exclusion rate if 2020 target achieved - UK, SE not included due to the specificity of their national targets; IE: Source: European Commission 43