FINANCIAL STABILITY SOVEREIGN DEBT ECONOMIC GROWTH
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1 The European sovereign debt crisis and the future of the euro Peter Bekx European Commission i Tokyo, 30 November
2 A Vicious circle FINANCIAL STABILITY SOVEREIGN DEBT ECONOMIC GROWTH 2
3 Breaking the negative feedback loop Banking funding Union FINANCIAL STABILITY Bank recaps Fiscal Fiscal Discipline Enhanced discipline rules Structural reforms SOVEREIGN DEBT ECONOMIC GROWTH Firewalls Support for vulnerable countries Improved Governance Differentiated fiscal consolidation & quality of public finances 3
4 Breaking the negative feedback loop Banking funding Union FINANCIAL STABILITY Bank recaps SOVEREIGN DEBT ECONOMIC GROWTH 4
5 Reinforcing the banking sector Restore confidence 9% capital ratio submit plans to deal with shortfall ECB measures easing of collateral requirements reduce reserve requirements LTRO with 3-y maturities SSM 5
6 Recent Summit Decisions Single banking supervisor Direct recapitalisation of euro area banks No preferred creditor status to EFSF/ESM support for Spain Use of the EFSF /ESM in a flexible way to stabilise markets 6
7 SSM: legislative proposals Supervisory tasks shifted to European level by 1 July 2013 Defining the role of the EBA Next step: proposal for a Single Resolution Mechanism 7
8 Breaking the negative feedback loop FINANCIAL STABILITY Fiscal Fiscal Discipline Enhanced discipline rules SOVEREIGN DEBT ECONOMIC GROWTH Firewalls Support for vulnerable countries Improved Governance 8
9 Greece Early 2010: confidence lost May 2010: 110 bn package Mid-2011: new 130 bn package, easier conditions for existing loan End-2011: upward ad revisions so sde deficit, ct,so slower growth 9
10 Action on vulnerable Member States Ireland: good programme implementation ti market confidence is returning Portugal: structural t reforms aim at switch from consumption to exports Italy: government adopted d package to address twin challenges Spain: government adopted d structural t reform packages and package for fiscal reform at all levels of government. Banking sector is in difficulties 10
11 Further developing firewalls EFSM EUR 60bn Situation May 2010 Capacity as of July 2012 EFSM EUR 60bn EFSF (committed) EUR 200bn EFSF EUR 200bn ESM, EUR 500bn ESM the main instrument to finance new programmes as of July 2012: As of mid-2013 the maximum lending volume will be EUR 500bn The EFSF will remain active in financing programmes before July 2012 and during a transitional period (until mid-2013) also finance new programmes to ensure a full lending capacity of EUR 500bn The ceiling for combined ESM/EFSF lending will be EUR 700bn Total firewall more than EUR 800bn - combining ESM/EFSF, EFSM and bilateral loans of EUR 53bn to Greece European firewalls acting in conjunction with IMF support 11
12 Breaking the negative feedback loop FINANCIAL STABILITY Fiscal Fiscal Discipline Enhanced discipline rules SOVEREIGN DEBT ECONOMIC GROWTH Firewalls Support for vulnerable countries Improved Governance 12
13 Reform of the SGP More focus on public debt Strengthening Enforcement Wider range of sanctions Triggered at an earlier stage More automaticity 13
14 Fiscal Compact Legally binding balanced budget rule Automatic correction mechanism Ex-ante coordination of debt issuance Ex-ante coordination of major economic policy reforms Euro Summit meetings 14
15 Breaking the negative feedback loop FINANCIAL STABILITY Structural reforms SOVEREIGN DEBT ECONOMIC GROWTH Improved Governance Differentiated fiscal consolidation & quality of public finances 15
16 Governance Reform Strengthening the SGP Fiscal compact Preventing and correcting macroeconomic imbalances through reinforced economic surveillance Towards a genuine EMU 16
17 Macroeconomic Preventive arm: Surveillance Alert mechanism scoreboard In-depth country analysis Recommendation on how to tackle imbalances Corrective arm: Excessive imbalances position stricter surveillance 17
18 Europe 2020 Structural reforms to raise potential growth Smart consolidation Reforms with low costs for the budget Priority to growth-stimulating reforms 18
19 Towards a genuine EMU Short term Progress with banking union Two-pack Medium term Complete banking union Develop fiscal capacity 19
20 Compact for Growth and Jobs: MS Action Re-confirm objectives of Europe 2020 Re-confirm differentiated growth-friendly consolidation Complete restructuring t of banking sector Promote ote growth and competitiveness t e ess through structural reforms Tackle unemployment ment Modernise public administrations 20
21 Compact for Growth and Jobs: Contribution of EU Policies Deepening the Single Market Digital Energy Unitary patent Financing EIB capital Project bonds Taxation Employment package Trade 21
22 Breaking the negative feedback loop Banking funding Union FINANCIAL STABILITY Bank recaps Fiscal Fiscal Discipline Enhanced discipline rules Structural reforms SOVEREIGN DEBT ECONOMIC GROWTH Firewalls Support for vulnerable countries Improved Governance Differentiated fiscal consolidation & quality of public finances 22
23 23
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