The Elusive Recovery
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1 iags 2017 independent Annual Growth Survey The Elusive Recovery Madrid, 19 th January 2017 Andy Watt (IMK), Georg Feigl (AK) press contact : georg.feigl@akwien.at press@iags-project.org xavier.timbeau@sciencespo.fr
2 The 5th independent Annual Growth Survey Commissioned by S&D group of European Parliament Conducted independently by consortium of 4 research institutes Offers alternative analysis of EU economy and economic policy to EU Commission AGS Reports available from iagsproject.org 00. Monat 0000 Titel der Präsentation, Autorin/Autor 2
3 Overview of report structure 00. Monat 0000 Titel der Präsentation, Autorin/Autor 3
4 Elusive recovery: GDP forecast & contributions Recovery once austerity relaxed, boosted by expansionary monetary policy Tailwinds from XR and oil Output gap narrowed But tailwinds easing reversing, limit to C/A surplus; small Brexit effect Growth dynamic and pace of OG reduction slowing Labour market healing: Monat 0000 Titel der Präsentation, Autorin/Autor years 4
5 Unemployment: labour market healing slowing 00. Monat 0000 Titel der Präsentation, Autorin/Autor 5
6 Overall A underperformance & serious internal divergences 00. Monat 0000 Titel der Präsentation, Autorin/Autor 6
7 Policy mix monetary policy valuable but QE exhausted Despite weak investment recovery unconventional monetary policy has been effective, but to a very limited extent. Largely because only recently deployed aggressively (effects lagged) No evidence of bubbles But limitations on additional bond purchases esp if fiscal consolidation End of exchange-rate channel (?) 00. Monat 0000 Titel der Präsentation, Autorin/Autor 7
8 Adressing imbalances economic governance reform Two-handed approach needed Demand management to keep domestic demand in line with potential (leaning against centrifugal effect of real-interest rate) More direct control of nomnal wage and price developments to ensure balanced trajectories (e.g. augmented golden wage rule) Not easy to organise in the context of national policymaking autonomy, including free collective bargaining/tarifautonomie) Need for symmetry Runs counter to fiscal rules Macroeconomic imbalance procedure ambiguous 00. Monat 0000 Titel der Präsentation, Autorin/Autor 8
9 Asymmetric, costly unsustainable adjustment of c/a imbalances 00. Monat 0000 Titel der Präsentation, Autorin/Autor 9
10 Sustainable competiveness adjustments should be symmmetrical and substantial 00. Monat 0000 Titel der Präsentation, Autorin/Autor 10
11 Adressing imbalances ad hoc measures Reform MIP to make it symmetrical Pressure on surplus countries to make fiscal stance more expansionary than they would like EU-financed investment programme in south /regionally targeted Juncker Plan Take steps to strengthen wage-setting institutions in particular wage floors and stregthen wage coordination 00. Monat 0000 Titel der Präsentation, Autorin/Autor 11
12 Adressing imbalances comprehensive strategy Revitalise the Broad Economic Policy Guidelines (Article 121 TFEU) Evaluation of national policy mixes within a consistent framework in which economic policy recognised as a common interest National commitment to orient policy towards agreed goals, with threat of sanctions The mandate of the European Fiscal Council broadened to the entire policy mix based on a symmetrical indicator set replacing MIP National productivity boards (purely advisory) also to have a policy-mix remit ( convergence boards ) Substantial strengthening of Macroeconomic Dialogue ( A MED plus MED for each MS) for policy consultation among MS govts and social partners in the light of technical expertise from EU and MS boards 00. Monat 0000 Titel der Präsentation, Autorin/Autor 12
13 Fiscal possibilities to increase aggregate demand: multipliers important public investment public consumption public jobs taxes social security contributions military expanditure
14 the neglect of (net!) public investment
15 fiscal policy requirements (Nov. 2016) Troika-requirements: GR (until 2018), EDP, deadline 2016: PT, [GR]; HR EDP, deadline 2017: FR, ES; UK Mid-term objectives: IT, BE, AT, IE, FI, SK, SI, LV, CY, MT; PL, DK, RO, BG, HU; Fiscal space: DE, NL, LU, LT, EE; SE, CZ wien.arbeiterkammer.at
16 budgetary plans : come-back of austerity policies? Source: EU-Commission 2016 (The 2016 Stability and Convergence Programmes: An Overview and Implications wien.arbeiterkammer.at for the Euro Area Fiscal Stance).
17 new EU-commission s approach: economic and fiscal goals, balanced Source: EU-Commission 2016 (The 2016 Stability and Convergence Programmes: An Overview and Implications for the Euro Area Fiscal Stance). wien.arbeiterkammer.at
18 iags 2017 fiscal policy: contradiction between rules and economic necessities This year AGS and iags are quite similar in the diagnosis: the EA should have a positive fiscal stance magnitude differ (AGS: 0.3 to 0.8 % of GDP; iags: 1 to 2 % of GDP) projections do not indicate a positive fiscal stance However, fiscal rules imply a negative fiscal stance of % of GDP (with DE&NL using there fiscal space, -0.1%; accounting for exceptions, slightly positive) Projected fiscal stance, % of GDP 18
19 solution: golden rule for public investment Evaluation of fiscal rules with deduction of net public investment, because it should be credit-financed the reasons: intergenerational fairness & growth net public investment increases the public/social capital stock future generations inherit higher capital stock, productivity and growth pay-as-you-use principle: future generations contribute to financing via the debt service otherwise present generations have to pay all of the burden otherwise: incentives for underinvestment, particularly in times of budgetary pressure
20 Ex ante-simulation: results 20
21 8 ways to boost fiscal policy and strengthen public investment 21
22 iags 2017 Without better economic performance, social situation will worsen Time to reach pre-crisis employment rates 15 Number of years to reach 2007 rate of unemployement at current speed of reduction, smoothed over 6 months 10 Euroarea: EU-28:
23 iags 2017 Underemployment even worse Euroarea: Underemployment remains high 23
24 iags 2017 inequality is rising, mainly due to labour market developments change in income interdecile ratios, ,9 1,6 S6/S1 S10/S6 1,3 1,0 0,7 0,4 0,1-0,2-0,5 Note: *latest data available for
25 risk of poverty and social exclusion Source: FEPS 2015 The Social Reality of Europe after the Crisis (S. 27). wien.arbeiterkammer.at
26 iags 2017 severe material deprivations is increasing as well, especially for children change in severe material deprivation rates, Note: *latest data available for
27 Share of people who think the economic situation is good or very good Source: Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung wien.arbeiterkammer.at
28 iags 2017 In general: better European Economic Governance for better outcomes Well-being has to be at the centre of economic policy (as given by the TEU) European Semester guided by the Magic Polygon combined with a reformed Scoreboard Broad and more democratic economic debate to agree on short-term goals (Euro-MED) National Level: convergence boards 28
29 iags 2017 No magic bullet but a broad response 1. Political: legitimacy (more democratic Europe), scope (what is the role of the union, responsibility of Member States): not answering to that will generate distrust and paralysis Better European Economic Governance: 5 president report is a first step, but the debate must move forward and in the right direction 2. Macroeconomic agenda: active demand management 3. Social: Golden Rule of Public Investment Golden Rule of Wages: ensure stability of wage share in VA using levers available (minimum wages, detached workers, trade union legislation) lock inflation expectations and ease internal disequilibrium active social spending, education, redistribution 4. Financial and Banking system: clear NPL, insure bank functioning improve financing through less banking and less fragmentation (long term) 5. Environmental: iags 2015, carbon price push 29
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